Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

[BeauV]

...snip...

In my simplistic view the issue comes when people think there is some kind of wizardry that can shield them from tail risk or even separate the risk from reward. But I'm not smart enough to be a banker.

Or, I'd say you are TOO smart to be a banker.

[Jamie]

...snip...

In my simplistic view the issue comes when people think there is some kind of wizardry that can shield them from tail risk or even separate the risk from reward. But I'm not smart enough to be a banker.

Or, I'd say you are TOO smart to be a banker.

Nah ...most bankers I work with are much smarter than I - more polished, too. It's a good thing I like to get my hands dirty with organizations and products.

[BeauV]

...snip...

In my simplistic view the issue comes when people think there is some kind of wizardry that can shield them from tail risk or even separate the risk from reward. But I'm not smart enough to be a banker.

Or, I'd say you are TOO smart to be a banker.

Nah ...most bankers I work with are much smarter than I - more polished, too. It's a good thing I like to get my hands dirty with organizations and products.

well, the best banker I know is NOT polished and does NOT seem smart. But, he never misses a detail in a package, finds all the errors (which is another word for polishing the turd and misleading the buyer), and because he's a short, chubby, balding guy everyone assumes he's stupid. He has a PhD in Math from MIT and is smarter than anyone I've ever worked with. He singlehandedly taught me not to judge a person by their rumpled suit as he took the Morgan Stanley team apart single-handedly and made me a pile of money. I have accused him of intentionally looking incompetent, so he can sneak up on folks. He just grinned and said: "Oh no, I'm really like this." then after a pause, "But I certainly know how to use the way I look to my advantage."

[kimbottles]

I have good luck with bankers. I have always managed to find one who is supportive and easy going. It doesn’t hurt that one very long term banker relationship I have is now the president of the bank. Blind luck.

(He is also an Olympic Silver medalist in rowing. One of the nicest guys I know.)

[avramd]

I distinctly recall sitting in my Wharton finance class back in 2000 having the Professor ask us...

Really... What degree where you pursuing? I was dating a woman at that time who was getting her PhD there. Any chance you'd know her? Leslie Schafer.

[avramd]

...I have accused him of intentionally looking incompetent, so he can sneak up on folks. He just grinned and said: "Oh no, I'm really like this." then after a pause, "But I certainly know how to use the way I look to my advantage."

When I was in Air Force ROTC, our detachment commander was a full Colonel former F-16 pilot, on his last assignment. He looked like Mr. Magoo, and he totally played the fool to the point of almost acting like he was high. We all thought he was just a ditz - but I caught him a few times bristling a split second after somebody had revealed something they thought he wouldn't catch.

[Tigger]

Well, the 2003 Honda Civic (250,000 km) is doing strange things--the headlights and interior instrument lights slowly oscillate from dim to bright for the first 5 minutes and then stay steady. This is the last year for the snow tires. Meanwhile the harpmobile (Prius V) has lots of years left ... but ... just out of curiosity, I've reached out to Tesla to see if the harp would fit in the back of the Model Y (we need 75" for the column and cover. Interested to hear the response. There is lots of sense to going to one electric car.

[Olaf Hart]

Well, the 2003 Honda Civic (250,000 km) is doing strange things--the headlights and interior instrument lights slowly oscillate from dim to bright for the first 5 minutes and then stay steady. This is the last year for the snow tires. Meanwhile the harpmobile (Prius V) has lots of years left ... but ... just out of curiosity, I've reached out to Tesla to see if the harp would fit in the back of the Model Y (we need 75" for the column and cover. Interested to hear the response. There is lots of sense to going to one electric car.

Sounds like an earth problem on the Civic...

[avramd]

Couple more updates on my Model Y life for anyone who's interested.

Snow Performance & Handling
I got to drive it in some real snow finally, about 8". A friend alerted me to an abandoned parking lot. I tried out the "off road assist" mode, which supposedly disables traction control. However it also reduces power significantly. The car recovers from understeer very well. However I couldn't force it to oversteer no matter what I tried - so I couldn't get any experience recovering from it. I don't know whether it was traction control that was preventing it or reduced power output. The seat of my pants says that the car was reducing power when I attempted to induce oversteer, so I think it was traction control.

I did not try "dyno mode" in the snow. I was afraid I might cut right through the snow and ruin the studs.

In doing further research, I've learned that the Model 3 Performance has "Track Mode" - which gives you extensive configuration over how the car behaves, including dialing in however much front or rear power bias you want. I believe it also gives direct control over disabling traction control, and lets you dial in exactly how much regenerative braking and engine power you want available, and more. Sadly, Track Mode has not been released for the Model Y yet. Elon has apparently said it's coming, but that was close to a year ago.

Charger Install
I did successfully install a level 2 charger. This is the riskiest electrical job I've ever done. I own a two-family. My tenant used to have an electric range which I upgraded to gas. So, she had a leftover 50 amp 240v breaker and 8-gauge 3 conductor wire already led to the street side of the house. I had a leftover 30 amp 240v breaker from having upgraded my dryer to gas. So I swapped these, including bringing the 8-gauge over to my panel. The hardest part of the whole job was drilling a big enough hole in my wall to fit the 8-gauge through. I installed an outdoor NEMA 14-50 outlet on the side of the house, and the charger there. Now I can get 35 miles of range per hour of charge when I need to. I prefer to park in the garage, I only do this when I'm running low. I'm waiting on a legit contractor to run a sub-panel via buried cable to the garage - it's detached and has no real electrical service yet (I'm running the 110v trickle charger off a 75' extension cord from an outdoor GFCI outlet in my garden).

[Jamie]

I distinctly recall sitting in my Wharton finance class back in 2000 having the Professor ask us...

Really... What degree where you pursuing? I was dating a woman at that time who was getting her PhD there. Any chance you'd know her? Leslie Schafer.

I was pursuing the the most nutritionally lacking and maligned of advanced degrees to my unending academic shame: an MBA. From her online resume she was teaching micro-econ when I was there. I think I remember my Prof for Micro was a man. I could check my class notes.

仕農兵學商 or Official > Farmer > Soldier > Student > Merchant, in that order of esteem.

[Tigger]

Well I'll be. A full sized concert grand pedal harp fits in the back of a Model Y. Fun to see the look on the faces when we wheeled it in.

IMG_8700.jpeg

[BeauV]

And I thought playing bass was inconvenient.

The harp is such a fun instrument, but the line "I got blisters on my fingers" should have been screamed by a harpist.

[Tigger]

You can attach a wheel to the bottom of the bass and trundle it around that way. That does not work for the harp!

The Model Y was great fun to drive, and the acceleration was impressive. But, between the two of us we drive less than 12,000 km per year (7,500 miles) and almost always just in the city for short trips way less than 30 km. A PHEV might make more sense.

[Steele]

I considered a phev, especially a Chevy volt since the prices dropped once they decided to discontinue it. With further thought I decided that having a full ICE and a full electric drivetrains in the same car no longer made much sense. Why have all that complexity and maintaince when there were increasing numbers of viable EV only cars hitting the market. Finding one that fits a harp is a unique challenge, but the Kia Niro may be worth a look, or perhaps the Mustang?

[TheOffice]

By 2 cents: I'm not a fan of the Bolt's looks. The ID4 is promising, but the software is not ready for prime time. The Ioniq and Kia would be definite candidates. Mustang is also worth checking out, but they are behind on deliveries. Read an interesting story on the Mustang. Bill Ford did not want to sully the Mustang name and initially refused to let designers borrow styling cues or use the name. They eventually persuaded him that building just another EV was not a recipe for success.

Joel

[BeauV]

...snbip...

The Model Y was great fun to drive, and the acceleration was impressive. But, between the two of us we drive less than 12,000 km per year (7,500 miles) and almost always just in the city for short trips way less than 30 km. A PHEV might make more sense.

Ross, your use case is almost perfect for a fully electric car. Driving around town and short trips is where it really slaughters the ICE cars. The downside of electric cars is that folks worry about range and re-charge times. For those long trip, you can always rent a car.

[Tigger]

Beau--as you know, it's a really interesting time to be looking at cars. Hybrid, EV, and PHEV are no longer niche vehicles. Looking critically, we move the harp so rarely these days that we could just rent a car or use an appropriately sized car share vehicle to do it. A couple of players in town just call a taxi for wheelchair passengers and move it that way. We're not likely to drive further than Sun Peaks (400 km) or Portland (500 km). Of course, for a ski trip to SP we could fly there and to see cousins in Portland we could take the train. What we don't have yet are charging outlets in our condo parking lot--but it is likely only a matter of time before we do. Once that happens, we'll have lots of choices! For now, we'll keep using the Prius V and I'll get rid of the Honda before it dies and I have to pay somebody to do it for me.

[avramd]

Beau--as you know, it's a really interesting time to be looking at cars. Hybrid, EV, and PHEV are no longer niche vehicles. Looking critically, we move the harp so rarely these days that we could just rent a car or use an appropriately sized car share vehicle to do it. A couple of players in town just call a taxi for wheelchair passengers and move it that way. We're not likely to drive further than Sun Peaks (400 km) or Portland (500 km). Of course, for a ski trip to SP we could fly there and to see cousins in Portland we could take the train. What we don't have yet are charging outlets in our condo parking lot--but it is likely only a matter of time before we do. Once that happens, we'll have lots of choices! For now, we'll keep using the Prius V and I'll get rid of the Honda before it dies and I have to pay somebody to do it for me.

Ross, I agree with Beau, your use case is perfect for a full EV. Given that you would still have an ICE, I would argue that this would make you a "PHEV family." I'm really loving the Y. Since you are not in a rush, perhaps a perfect play would be to start looking at their online inventory late Nov/early Dec and get a demo for $5k off like I did. There were several with only a few hundred miles on them.

I see that you have two superchargers in Vancouver already, plus two dozen level two chargers around the city. I really think you'd be fine just topping off when you were going to pass by a supercharger anyway, while you wait for chargers at your complex. There are lots of Tesla owners that street-park in Boston, they'll never have their own chargers. I don't know what you have for a boat, so perhaps it's not a bonus for you that the Y has a factory class III tow-hitch option that is rated up to 3500 lbs (350 tongue weight).

[avramd]

Beau,

I know I've asked you this before, sorry if I missed your response. Is there a particular Tesla owner's forum that you find as being especially useful? The one I've gotten value out of yet is teslaownersonline.com. The signal/noise ratio is ok. The use-ability of the site is meh, haven't had great luck with their search, and frequently ads overlap with something I'm trying to click on or read.

[BeauV]

Beau,

I know I've asked you this before, sorry if I missed your response. Is there a particular Tesla owner's forum that you find as being especially useful? The one I've gotten value out of yet is teslaownersonline.com. The signal/noise ratio is ok. The use-ability of the site is meh, haven't had great luck with their search, and frequently ads overlap with something I'm trying to click on or read.

I haven't used any particular owner/user group. I just google what I'm looking for and jump into wherever it is. I have a pretty low opinion of most of the stuff I find. Like some sailing forums, there are all sorts of folk who think they know things and are utterly clueless. But, I just stumble around and keep looking until something makes sense.

[Tigger]

Boat is a Beneteau 36.7 ... I’ll need something a wee bit more ‘industrial’ than a Y for towing!

[BeauV]

Boat is a Beneteau 36.7 ... I’ll need something a wee bit more ‘industrial’ than a Y for towing!

Borrow Steve's home-made flatbed??

[Tigger]

Boat is a Beneteau 36.7 ... I’ll need something a wee bit more ‘industrial’ than a Y for towing!

Borrow Steve's home-made flatbed??

Ha! We all know he could fabricate something with astonishing speed.

[Tigger]

Update on interesting stuff I've learned.

I thought that my ancient Civic was worthless. MAYBE NOT--read on . As it turns out, there are two programs sponsored by BC Hydro. Hydro is what is referred to as a 'Crown Corporation', a publicly owned organization that provides specialized goods and services. In this case, it's the creation of power (including a new dam that has at least doubled in price to something in excess of $15 billion. But let's not go there.)

The first is a rebate for the outright purchase of an EV--$3000. (While any Tesla is too expensive to qualify, the Kia Niro EV would.) Hmm.

https://electricvehicles.bchydro.com/in ... C#SCRAP-IT

The second is an even more generous rebate for the recycling of an older less efficient vehicle--$6000. That's not an insignificant amount of money. Hmm X2.

https://scrapit.ca/

The third is really interesting, but closed at the present time pending the upcoming provincial budget--substantial grants to condos for the installation of EV charging stations in condo parking areas. Once again, not insignificant sums--if offered again.

https://electricvehicles.bchydro.com/in ... er-rebates

I suspect that these programs won't last forever--once Hydro figures that the EV is inexorably headed to the mainstream they'll vanish.

Now I'm thinking about replacing the Honda with a smaller EV that qualifies (the Niro is a useful size, but by no means the only choice) and keep the Prius for moving the harp. Or, scrap the Honda for the rebate, trade in the Prius for $$, and join a car share program that provides ... wait for it ... WAIT FOR IT ... Prius V for rent.

https://modo.coop/

I'm so confused.

[Ish]

I think we should follow the Texas model. Ignore it until the lights go out, then ask for help.

[BeauV]

I'm so glad that my son-in-law isn't working for Elon anymore.

"Hundreds of covid cases reported at Tesla plant following Musk’s defiant reopening, county data shows" -- This is a major percentage of the county's cases. Of course, it's hard to prove they all came from the Tesla plant, but it sure seems like it. Surrounding areas didn't have nearly the spike.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2021/03/12/hundreds-covid-cases-reported-tesla-plant-following-musks-defiant-reopening-county-data-shows/

[avramd]

Hey Beau - thanks for confirming my suspicions that none of the forums are really any good

I'm curious, have you had any issues with your windows refusing to close? The auto-up frequently reverses itself, sometimes over a dozen times. I wonder if I have a faulty sensor.

I'm also wondering if you've had any luck focusing the results of a navigation search? Frequently it gives me dozens of results over a 50+ mile radius when there are plenty of matches within a few miles of me. The extra zooming would be nice to bypass.

In other news, in case anyone is interested, I came up with a really slick mount for my iPhone! This would work on a 3 too. I find the car's apps missing enough features that I want my phone safely accessible & visible, despite their hope that I won't do that.

This uses Apples new mag-safe, so I just touch my phone to it. It snaps into place, self-aligns, and starts charging, all in one step. I can rotate it into portrait or landscape mode. It's on a ball-joint, so I can adjust the angle too. It's great for taking zoom calls from when parked (or even driving actually). And also great for taking stable videos of nice scenery though the windshield.

I cobbled together two different products. I had to modify pieces of each of them to make it work. It uses a sleeve that fits around the edge of the monitor. It is surprisingly solid.

[BeauV]

Avramd,

I have _NEVER_ found a car that had better software and usability than an iPhone. BTW, that includes Apple's own CarPlay software, which is a sort of demanded/retarded version of their own software which has been modified for low-rez screens. The entire issue is just a reflection of how stupid auto manufacturers are about trying to do things that others do far better than they. To me, there should just be a plug where you apply power and the phone should take over all the center console functions. The car companies have utterly, totally, and completely failed to keep up. Indeed, it's getting worse. The war's over, but these chuckleheads don't know it.

As to the windows reversing, my understanding is that the window motors are monitored for an extra current draw. Once the current being drawn gets above a certain level the motor reverses, as this is how they avoid traping fido or some kids' head in the window as it's closing. The problem with this technique is that if the rubber the window pushes against gets sticky the current draw goes up and the window reverses. You can avoid this to some extent by running the windows open and closed more often. Or, you can lube the rubber with something that will not damage the rubber and yet let it slide more easily, I've used silicon spray on my finger and they wiping it long the part of the rubber that rubs on the glass. It's a common problem. It is NOT a good idea to just keep trying, as that can probably lead to burning out the motor.

I like your phone mount - although I think I'd just stick mine to a suction cup on the inside of the windscreen. I don't do this as I rarely need more than the verbal instructions on where to go issued by the phone. Also, I'm almost always wearing my Apple Watch, which buzzes and beeps a different pattern for each upcoming turn.

[avramd]

Hey Beau,

Good point about not re-trying too much on the window. I wish that the simple act of holding the button up would be "manual up" and just trust me that if I want the kids head jammed into the window, he deserved it. Kidding.

Honestly the main feature I want from having my phone accessible & visible is the fine-grained control over the music app. Number two is a better interface to choosing a destination and a route to it. Three is messaging, the car's messaging functionality is pretty basic.

I got to put the summer wheels & tires back on this weekend - what a dream!!!! As quiet as the car already was with the studs compared to a normal car, it's like driving on a cloud now. Granted it's a rather firm cloud, but it's like having a whole new car all over again.

[BeauV]

Avramd,

I have to say that we do not use any of the music or map applications provided by Tesla. For email and txt, we just say "Hey Siri, send Stacey a message." etc... For mapping/routing we say "Hey Siri, navigate me to Bob Billers house." For music, we say: "Hey Siri, play the Chopin channel." If I'm in a rush, I will use Waze for guidance/routing, but usually, it's just easier to use Siri. With music, the only thing I do is say "Hey Siri, skip this song" or "Hey Siri, play the Bluegrass Channel." In our Ford SUV with CarPlay, we basically ignore most of the options and just ask Siri to do everything. Siri will even respond correctly to: "Hey Siri, tell me a bad-dad joke." Some of them are hysterically funny! (to me)

I really don't know why anyone would use the car's electronics for anything other than better speakers.

This has become so ubiquitous that at home our entire extended family says things like: "Hey Siri, tell everyone that dinner is ready." The Home Pods in the various room announce: "The kitchen says that dinner is ready." The family is so used to having Siri around that even the 3-year-old says: "Hey Siri, play Crazy Frog Radio." (For those who haven't listened to this radio channel, it's a hoot!)

The auto manufacturers and independent home-automation folks have already lost the war. The UI I use is the one that is in my pocket simply because it's the same wherever I go.