Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

[kdh]

The Cape and the Islands here are just sand that was the stuff a glacier was pushing when it stopped ...

That is the description of a terminal moraine... many of the best loved features of the sailing grounds in southern New England are the result of terminal moraines.

I learned something today. An under-appreciated asset of the Cape are the kettle ponds--the pockmarks created by chunks of ice breaking off the glacier, hitting the ground, and melting. Clear and clean, hundreds of them. The perfect way to wash off after a day at the beach.

[avramd]

I ran into this fellow towing a small camper with his Model Y on my way home from visiting my parents in Kennebunk yesterday. He said he has 17,000 miles on his Y, which he bought in November, and 14k of the were towing it. He said that starting from a 100% charge, he gets 125 miles of range on flat roads, ending at 3%. That's 38% of his car's rated range. I forgot to ask him what the driving speed is for that.

He told me a couple of odd stories, one was that he ran out of battery 4 miles short of a charging station once, and it cost him $500 to independently have the car and the camper towed to the station. I think that I would have disconnected the trailer once I had less than 20-30 miles of butter. I thought Tesla had a service where they'd come out and give you a boost charge, but he shrugged and said "they didn't have anyone near me."

[Steele]

That's interesting in a proof of concept way, but seems pretty impractical. I imagine any uphill towing has a disproportionate affect on range, and as he already experienced running out of charge is a much more complex issue with the trailer attached. Perhaps a more minimalist approach with a treardrop trailer would have been a better starting point.
This is related to one of the reasons I have been holding off on an electric car, we like to ski. The local day area is a 100+ mile round trip, 5000 feet up, driven in below freezing temps most of the way. At times the DOT needs to close the pass for avalanche mitigation and you can sit on the road freezing for an hour or more. The resorts are installing chargers, but they apparently are often full or broken. We may have to wait another few years as the infrastructure matures.

[BeauV]

I've been reading about the Ford F-150 Lightning. Not only does it seem to be the least expensive F-150, it's the fastest by far. It'll also power your tools and your home. Interesting play for Ford.

[Steele]

I think Ford played this well. They let Rivain and Tesla create all the hype for an electric truck, then beat them to market with a less expensive product. Time will tell if traditional conservative truck buyers will accept it, but in that market the instantly recognizable appearance and huge dealer network may be a big plus.

[BeauV]

I think Ford played this well. They let Rivain and Tesla create all the hype for an electric truck, then beat them to market with a less expensive product. Time will tell if traditional conservative truck buyers will accept it, but in that market the instantly recognizable appearance and huge dealer network may be a big plus.

I agree. The serious issue is a lack of a fast charging network. The way things are going, Tesla could become a power distribution and re-marking company as one of its most profitable divisions. The coverage is getting crazy thick in some area. The landlords won't want to have five different types of chargers in their parking lots. Many of the good spots are gone.

This could represent a great opportunity for the polluted land under gas stations. Turn them into fast-charging stations. The problem is gas stations are nowhere near the large power lines. Tesla Superchargers are located right on top of the main lines.

[avramd]

This could represent a great opportunity for the polluted land under gas stations. Turn them into fast-charging stations. The problem is gas stations are nowhere near the large power lines. Tesla Superchargers are located right on top of the main lines.

Gas stations don't need to be on top of big power lines - they have all that gas, they can just install generators

My thought was that gas stations would install battery packs that would be constantly charging at a slower rate, and they would catch-up between cars charging, and at night. At first if there were only a few, there would probably be problems with their packs running out at high demand times. But if most gas stations had this, it probably wouldn't be so bad. Of course we'd want some kind of network so that we could tell in advance which ones are low or not.

In the end, I suspect that gas stations are going to end up converting their mini-marts into cafés, and then instead of competing on price, the'll compete on how nice of an experience you can have while you are charging.

It does bug me that Tesla's supercharger network is proprietary. I've only see one non-Tesla level 3 charger ever.

I don't think condo complexes are really going to have an issue, there exist adapters between the different connector types. The challenge would come in whether or not a condo smart charging system is identifying specific cars to charge their owners for the electricity, and then whether that level of communications protocol actually works between the variants. For chargers whose only concern is whether they are going to destroy your battery, this seems to be sorted out.

[BeauV]

Batteries in a gas station are a lot like the fuel tank that's under the ground. They have a cost to install and a cost to maintain. That said it's a rock-solid solution.

A real benefit to batteries is that they can suck a lot of power out of the grid when folks aren't using that transmission capacity for other things. Various power companies already offer cheaper electricity from midnight to 6 am when the grid is very lightly loaded. Around here I believe that electricity used during that low-load time is about 1/3 the cost of peak times. Your distributed electrical storage idea would work well and leveling out the load. Dealing with peak load is a BIG issue for the power companies; this is especially true if they have to either keep a power plant running because it takes a long time to start up or because the swings in load are massive. It often takes many hours or even a couple of days to start a power plant. I'm not sure, but I believe that this is one of the reasons that natural gas-fired powerplants have rapidly taken over from coal-fired plants, they can start up more quickly. They are also a lot cleaner.

The issue with electric cars is that the customers are used to a 3-5 minute stop for fuel. They get grumpy if they have to wait 20 minutes for a re-charge.

We lived through this and it went away after just a little while. My wife put it beautifully: "Once I realized that I'd never ever ever be forced to go to a gas station again, I realized that I was being silly." She obviously hates gas stations, which many women do. We guys forget how exposed a woman alone feels in a gas station late at night in many areas of town or the country. My lovely Admiral was adept at planning her trips and when she refueled her car to never ever have to put herself in that sort of situation. Her realization was that the "useful range" of her car was really only about 150 miles, not the 300 miles she could achieve if she drove the car until nearly empty counting on refueling at that point vs the "Safe gas station". I think many men really don't understand this at all. I didn't. I've learned that there are numerous women who have this fear. In my wife's case, it is based on real experiences which she will not repeat. So, the highly touted range of a gasoline engine car is about 1/2 as far as it could be.

This observation changes everything. The cognitive load of having to keep your car charged is about the same as that of finding safe gas stations. For that part of the population, the range of a Tesla is often larger than that of a gasoline engine car. Moreover, other than about 8 to 10 times a year, the electric car is used each day without needing a re-charge while away from home. For those 8 to 10 times a year, the superchargers are located in pretty nice areas. Parking lots for nice restaurants and hotels along major highways or in nice shopping centers. They are mostly in places one would consider relatively safe.

None of this had occurred to me until a couple of years after we'd bought the first Tesla. I was simply too embedded in my own worldview to see it, being a white guy who has knocked around in dangerous parts of the world. I think it's a significant factor in Tesla's success that goes entirely unrecognized.

For me, it almost immediately because apparent that charging at home each night was simply easier and certainly cleaner and less irritating than any gas station experience I have ever had.

[TheOffice]

While the initial F-150 is cheap, it is aimed at the commercial market with vinyl seats and a smaller screen.
There will, of course, be fancier versions, including the $8,000 upcharge for the long range model.

Everyone else has started at the top of the market and worked down, leaving a huge void for Ford to fill. Good move on their part. Then they can use thee same frame for a new e-Expedition and then expect an e-Explorer in a couple years.

Joel

[BeauV]

While the initial F-150 is cheap, it is aimed at the commercial market with vinyl seats and a smaller screen.
There will, of course, be fancier versions, including the $8,000 upcharge for the long range model.

Everyone else has started at the top of the market and worked down, leaving a huge void for Ford to fill. Good move on their part. Then they can use thee same frame for a new e-Expedition and then expect an e-Explorer in a couple years.

Joel

Joel, I agree completely. Not only that, but the Lightning purchase decision of the Fleet Market Model will be made by an accountant someplace, NOT by somebody trying to be a suburban cowboy who only uses truck to prove he's a real guy. The commercial market has been begging for this sort of truck for at least three years. Don't underestimate the US Gov. ability to simply buy 50,000 of these for various uses in the military and the US Post Office. Of course, they'll drive the price way up. But the low-end batteries and drive train will be just fine for delivering the mail with a commercial body and right-hand drive. Ford appears to be the only one listening to this massive customer. Obviously, there is virtue signaling going on, but Ford gets it. The US population is genuinely worried about climate change (about 65% in one poll I read) and that won't go away with the next election or the one after that. Announcing now is a master stroke on Ford's part - stand by for a contract with the US Post Office to signal this administration's strong support for slowing down climate change.

[TheOffice]

Beau,

USPS recently awarded a contract for he next gen delivery trucks that can be gas or electric, but Biden wants to convert the government fleet to electric, so that is a HUGE market.

Fleet buyers will love the low maintenance. Mechanics, not so much.

I've got a dealer who I've already warned that he needs to figure out how to make money without the service business in 5-10 years - the main profit center of any dealership.

Joel

[Jamie]

There will still be service, just a different kind of service. Battery packs, dead cell testing and replacement, wiring, software and chips, especially with these early electric cars where the engineering for long-term reliability and serviceability is not mature. There is already a cottage industry building up around this. Gears and shafts are reliable, but there's a lot more torque running through them. Then you'll have the usual interior and bodywork stuff which is now more $$$ because of all the sensors. One reason I didn't get a car with an adaptive cruise control or self parking was I saw the cost of the bumper with the sensors vs without. So much fewer oil changes....

[Tigger]

I don't think condo complexes are really going to have an issue, there exist adapters between the different connector types. The challenge would come in whether or not a condo smart charging system is identifying specific cars to charge their owners for the electricity, and then whether that level of communications protocol actually works between the variants. For chargers whose only concern is whether they are going to destroy your battery, this seems to be sorted out.

I did some research into this and it was quite interesting. As it stands, a condo tower is rated for how much electricity it could possibly use. If you add X charging stations, that max use number goes up--more expensive. However ... there are systems out there that measure the amount of juice going into the charging stations and manage it so that the total draw remains below the existing 'peak' draw for the building. The systems are wireless and the amount of electricity used is charged to the respective owners. It's quite clever.

Our building is partially office tower (the first 18 floors) and partially condos (the next 24). The office portion is a ghost town during times when you would charge a condo car. Meanwhile, the condo part of the building uses less juice at times a commercial user might plug in to recharge. Hmm.

The big issue, as it was explained to me, is that once you select a company to manage the electricity use you are married to that software. Hmm.

[BeauV]

There is a fleet of Tesla Model S and X in So. Calif. They are seeing lots of miles on each car. Because the drive train long outlasts the furniture, it turns out that there's an emerging market for replacement upholstery, refinishing dashboards, new windshields (rock pits etc...), and the normal dings and bangs of half a million miles. There is certainly a market providing these repairs, but it's nowhere near the $$$s of service for an ICE car. (ICE=Internal Combustion Engine)

There's an overview article HERE

Price for service over 450,000 miles is $0.07/mile
Total operating cost including electricity is $0.19/mile

[Jamie]

If you ignore the sunglasses and hoodie...some interesting thoughts by an independent Tesla shop..and yeah, it's a YouTube as an infomercial... Feels like the folks that fix Macs in terms of company support.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GcpPyBYRDcM

Here's an instructor that pulls them apart. Warning - like watching paint dry for most people.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OSL_935l568&t=1975s

[TheOffice]

When you switch from ICE to electric you eliminate a couple thousand engine parts, plus oil, coolant, belts etc.

If you keep your vehicle for a long time, all the data says an electric is cheaper. I have not looked at lease prices for comparable models, but I suspect that over 3 years an ICE car is cheaper because maintenance is usually under warranty.

[avramd]

If you ignore the sunglasses and hoodie...some interesting thoughts by an independent Tesla shop..and yeah, it's a YouTube as an infomercial... Feels like the folks that fix Macs in terms of company support.

This was a really funny analogy to wake up to b/c...

Last week I decided to try putting the factory wheel covers back on my Model Y to see how much range they really save next time visit my parents. Range-oriented Teslas come with aerodynamic wheel covers to boost their range numbers; they are ugly AF. I removed mine, and installed Tesla's hub center caps b/c the factory wheels have a big ugly hole in the center to accept a big circlip in the wheel covers.

At first I couldn't figure out any way to get the hub center caps out other than prying w/ a screwdriver, which I was pretty sure would scratch up both the wheel an the cap. So, I googled it, and the prevailing solution is... (drumroll please) a youtube video showing how to use the mechanically levered suction cups that iFixIt sells, which are for separating an iMac display from it's frame, which is held in place magnetically.

[Jamie]

If you ignore the sunglasses and hoodie...some interesting thoughts by an independent Tesla shop..and yeah, it's a YouTube as an infomercial... Feels like the folks that fix Macs in terms of company support.

This was a really funny analogy to wake up to b/c...

Last week I decided to try putting the factory wheel covers back on my Model Y to see how much range they really save next time visit my parents. Range-oriented Teslas come with aerodynamic wheel covers to boost their range numbers; they are ugly AF. I removed mine, and installed Tesla's hub center caps b/c the factory wheels have a big ugly hole in the center to accept a big circlip in the wheel covers.

At first I couldn't figure out any way to get the hub center caps out other than prying w/ a screwdriver, which I was pretty sure would scratch up both the wheel an the cap. So, I googled it, and the prevailing solution is... (drumroll please) a youtube video showing how to use the mechanically levered suction cups that iFixIt sells, which are for separating an iMac display from it's frame, which is held in place magnetically.

That’s funny. And clever. When I wrote that I was thinking of the butterfly keyboard design.

[avramd]

In case anyone is interested, I've completed my analysis of the efficiency of driving to visit my parents with vs without the roof rack and aero wheel covers installed. Based on my current driving behavior, it appears my car is more efficient WITH the roof rack installed

Which is to say, I've had five total drives between Newport and Kennebunk; This one was 68% efficient (compared to advertised range). The last one was 69% efficient. Since I drive 80-85 miles an hour most of the way, the obvious conclusion is that the lift that I get from the foil-shaped roof rack at higher speeds reduces the effective weight of the car, much in the same way foiling boats are more efficient.

I am kidding. Of the 5 drives, the only one that was more efficient than 69% was the one where I got caught in traffic much and couldn't drive that fast. That one was about 85% efficient. So it does look like if I were to actually drive 65 mph the whole way, I really might get very close to the rated range. And it seems that the loss from the rack and missing wheel covers might be noticeable at that speed, but it isn't at higher speeds and with somewhat aggressive driving.

One thing that is amusing about this whole experiment is that my parents house is exactly the perfect distance from my house for me to be able to drive however the F*** I feel like it to visit them, and have just barely enough range left to not think about it at all. Specifically, they're about 155 miles from me; The recommended max charge level is 90%; I have 280 "rated miles" at that charge (311 rated miles 100% charge). I use 240 rated miles to drive 155 real miles to visit them, and have 40 miles of breathing room when I arrive. Currently they don't have a L2 charger, so I do need to stop and charge to be able to use my car while visiting them. Hoping to get that installed this week though so I can just go straight to their house.

Here's an example screen capture of the TeslaFi.com website I use to track and analyze my car's performance. It's pretty full featured, geek-oriented. It costs $5/mo; I basically need it in order to deduct my charging from the electric bill before splitting it with my housemates.

[Steele]

Car and Driver did a semi-controlled test on a model 3 and found the wheel covers improved range by around 3% so perhaps having them on for road trips might make sense.

[BeauV]

Great stuff. I have a similar experiment I've been tracking (without the graph, just a piece of paper - after all I sail a wooden schooner ). It is about 77 miles distant and 95% freeway or high-speed road over a mountain.

What I've learned is that speed is the issue. This is a Model S, but it's worse with the Model X. I burn up about 30% more electrons going 85 MPH than I do going 75. It is around 34% more going 85 than 70. I guess the conclusion is: Air Is A Drag. Numbers are also MUCH worse in the rain. I have attributed this to squishing the water out of the way with the tires and smashing into zillions of water droplets as I drive along. They are heavy.

BTW, tire pressure and type of tire really matters. We have relatively narrow high sidewall tires on the X and our friend with wide boy-racer rims and tires get MUCH worse range. There's a reason those only electric cars from GM had narrow tires, low rolling resistance. (But where's the fun in that!)

[avramd]

Car and Driver did a semi-controlled test on a model 3 and found the wheel covers improved range by around 3% so perhaps having them on for road trips might make sense.

What's really weird though is that that effect seems to be lost if you're driving much above 65. Granted, I have only one data-point on the "with wheel covers" side of the equation, but they do not seem to have made any difference at all at 80-85 mph. I wonder if maybe the drag around the wheel wells at all is so much worse at that speed that it doesn't matter a hoot what is happening inside the wheel well anymore.

For the moment, I have kept the wheel covers on, for the simple reason that they make the car look dopier. I had a big scare on the way home from Maine where I really punched it in a break in traffic on the south Boston central artery - and then a couple minutes later, I saw blue lights behaving very aggressively a couple miles behind me. The traffic was super-dense, so it took them a couple minutes to get to me. During that time, I hid "behind" (from their POV) a number of larger vehicles while working my way to the right lane. I was still in their visual shadow as they passed me - while I was taking an exit that was not on my route. I have no idea whether I actually evaded them or they were not after me, but so far there seems to be no fallout.

Unless you count my nerves and the ugly wheel covers still being on my car.

[avramd]

In case anyone is interested, I'm halfway through my first extended road trip in the Model Y. I went from Newport to Pittsburgh last Thurs; then Columbus Sun, then came down to see Andy in Falls Church (DC-ish?) yesterday.

So far what I'm learning is that the leading cause of needing extra charging stops is the act of trying to optimize my trip to reduce the number of charging stops I need. Newport->Pitt and Columbus->FC both should have been no-brainer 2-charge legs, but in both cases I needed three b/c I tried to be clever.

There aren't quite enough options for superchargers here to readily use the majority of my range on each segment of a leg. When a trip looks like it should be do-able with X charges, it's pretty much a guarantee it's going to take X+1 or 2, due to the actual charge stops not being optimally located. The +2 mostly comes from likely not wanting to be close to dead at the destination.

Also I've managed to prove the obvious - if I'm running behind, I can't make up time by driving faster. The extra time I gain is more than lost in charging. I think I've heard that people are doing an "e-Cannonball Run;" I bet there is some interesting thinking going on in those efforts.

[BeauV]

Great report!

I've gone from San Francisco to San Diego in a Tesla about a dozen times. Playing the game of do I go long or re-charge more often, I've found that one big win is not bothering to completely charge the batteries. As you know, the charging rate drops off a lot as the car get close to fully charged. The peak charging rate is when you first plug in. As a result, I will often times run down to around 15-20% left, then stop at one of the many Superchargers along US Route 5 to charge back up to about 75-80%, then unplug and get going again. The key is to always be charging at a high rate when you're sitting still, and this is where a bigger battery bank really pays off. But, you probably already think of it that way.

[H B]

Beau/Avram, If you are using a designated Tesla super charger, how long does it take to go from 15% to 80%.. and Beau, you have the big 100 kWh battery, right??
How long if you are using a run-of-the-mill generic charger that is out in front of a super market or pharmacy? They just started installing a few of those around here.

[BeauV]

Beau/Avram, If you are using a designated Tesla super charger, how long does it take to go from 15% to 80%.. and Beau, you have the big 100 kWh battery, right??
How long if you are using a run-of-the-mill generic charger that is out in front of a super market or pharmacy? They just started installing a few of those around here.

My experience going from 20% to 80% is that it takes about 35-45 min. depending upon the output limit of the Supercharger, they are not all the same. The range of received current will go from 50-120 amps depending upon the type of Supercharger, the temperature of the batteries, the temp of the air being used to cool the batteries during rapid charge, and (of course) how full the batteries are when starting out.

Yes, we have a 100 kWh battery in the Model X, the Model S has an 85 kWh battery the biggest they made back in 2014.

I have almost no experience with a generic charger; sorry, no data. We do have a 240v home charger from which the car can draw between 36 and 40 Amps @240v. The car senses the voltage drop on the line and lowers its draw. Obviously, mid-afternoon is a peak in the summer due to AC units in houses and folks doing laundry etc... I have recharged to completely full (for a trip, not daily driving) at home and it took about 6 or 7 hours.

As I'm sure you're aware, the car monitors the temperature of the batteries closely and uses a pretty big cooling system to chill them or warm them to optimum temperature. If you tell the car you are on your way to a Supercharger, it will start to "condition" the batteries to be charged at various rates because the software in the car knows what the max output is of that specific Supercharger installation. As a result, in cool weather, you'll see a decline in charge that is more rapid as battery power is used to warm the batteries up prior to arrival at the Supercharger. Conversely, the same thing happens when driving in 104° air on the freeway, the battery cooling system will kick in and start to cool the battery stack to get ready for a high-speed charge.

[H B]

It is more complicated than I imagined, but really fascinating stuff. Thanks for sharing your own data with the stuff I read on the interwebs.
I am starting to lean towards the thought that if I can't buy a car with a 3rd pedal anymore, I might as well get an electric vehicle. Now, the fact that I can't afford the Model S Plaid that I want is really no hindrance to my dreams at this point. I have struggled to put 10K miles on my ol' Civic Si in the last two years, so, she might have another 10-15 years on her at this rate.

[BeauV]

I hear you about the 3rd peddel. We're selling my Mini JCW convertible right now, it's the last "real car" I'll own with a stick. The Morgan will probably get sold after I'm dead, so I got that goin' for me.

[Jamie]

It is more complicated than I imagined, but really fascinating stuff. Thanks for sharing your own data with the stuff I read on the interwebs.
I am starting to lean towards the thought that if I can't buy a car with a 3rd pedal anymore, I might as well get an electric vehicle. Now, the fact that I can't afford the Model S Plaid that I want is really no hindrance to my dreams at this point. I have struggled to put 10K miles on my ol' Civic Si in the last two years, so, she might have another 10-15 years on her at this rate.

Most modern sticks don't get enough R&D dollars to be good anymore. It's also taken me.....5 years to put 24k miles on my STi. I think it will be the last ICE car I own.

[H B]

It is more complicated than I imagined, but really fascinating stuff. Thanks for sharing your own data with the stuff I read on the interwebs.
I am starting to lean towards the thought that if I can't buy a car with a 3rd pedal anymore, I might as well get an electric vehicle. Now, the fact that I can't afford the Model S Plaid that I want is really no hindrance to my dreams at this point. I have struggled to put 10K miles on my ol' Civic Si in the last two years, so, she might have another 10-15 years on her at this rate.

Most modern sticks don't get enough R&D dollars to be good anymore. It's also taken me.....5 years to put 24k miles on my STi. I think it will be the last ICE car I own.

Yep...even Honda, while still committed to the stick in the Civic (Si & Type-R variants at least), I think Honda's current sticks are basically the same tranny that is in my '07. They also very quietly dropped the 6-speed manual from the Accord 2.0T Sport in 2020, which is basically a de-tuned Type R (306hp) motor. Not much R&D there since all those vehicles ride on the same platform and bolt to the same K-series engine (Accord & Type-R, the current Si is a 1.5L Turbo now), but I guess even less people buy manual Accords than Civics (although I owned a 5-speed Accord in 1998..the only new car I ever bought). So, anyway, now you get that 252HP Type-R version in the Accord Sport with a 10-speed slush box. Maybe I will find a nice '19 2.0T manual in a few years for sale. I really like my Si, and I always wanted to own one, but my 50 yr old body enjoys the less harsh rides on the highways these days. I almost forget about the harsh ride in my Si, until we go for a trip in the A-4..even for being a Jetta with leather, it rides much nicer than my Si.

(sorry for the ICE hijack!)