Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

[Ken Heaton (Salazar)]

The VW GTI and R are still out there...

Golf R: Under the hood of the new 5th generation Golf R lies a turbocharged 2.0L TSI engine producing 315 horsepower and up to 295 lb-ft of torque. Power is sent to the ground through an updated 4MOTION All-Wheel Drive system. Drivers can choose from a classic 6-speed manual gearbox or the 7-speed DSG Dual Clutch Gearbox.

[Olaf Hart]

It is more complicated than I imagined, but really fascinating stuff. Thanks for sharing your own data with the stuff I read on the interwebs.
I am starting to lean towards the thought that if I can't buy a car with a 3rd pedal anymore, I might as well get an electric vehicle. Now, the fact that I can't afford the Model S Plaid that I want is really no hindrance to my dreams at this point. I have struggled to put 10K miles on my ol' Civic Si in the last two years, so, she might have another 10-15 years on her at this rate.

Most modern sticks don't get enough R&D dollars to be good anymore. It's also taken me.....5 years to put 24k miles on my STi. I think it will be the last ICE car I own.

Yep...even Honda, while still committed to the stick in the Civic (Si & Type-R variants at least), I think Honda's current sticks are basically the same tranny that is in my '07. They also very quietly dropped the 6-speed manual from the Accord 2.0T Sport in 2020, which is basically a de-tuned Type R (306hp) motor. Not much R&D there since all those vehicles ride on the same platform and bolt to the same K-series engine (Accord & Type-R, the current Si is a 1.5L Turbo now), but I guess even less people buy manual Accords than Civics (although I owned a 5-speed Accord in 1998..the only new car I ever bought). So, anyway, now you get that 252HP Type-R version in the Accord Sport with a 10-speed slush box. Maybe I will find a nice '19 2.0T manual in a few years for sale. I really like my Si, and I always wanted to own one, but my 50 yr old body enjoys the less harsh rides on the highways these days. I almost forget about the harsh ride in my Si, until we go for a trip in the A-4..even for being a Jetta with leather, it rides much nicer than my Si.

(sorry for the ICE hijack!)

We have the last six speed stick CRV on the market down here.

[avramd]

Beau/Avram[...] How long if you are using a run-of-the-mill generic charger that is out in front of a super market or pharmacy? They just started installing a few of those around here.

I can speak to this one, I got to dig in pretty hard on the L2 charging network. Most home and some destination (i.e. hotel) chargers are 40-50 amp, which delivers 36-40 mprh (miles of range per hr of charge). Most public L2 chargers are 25 amp, and deliver 20-23 mrph. The Model Y Performance is rated at 313 miles of range (73 kW battery pack I believe). You're not supposed to charge past 90%, and it's pretty sketchy to have < 5% buffer, so for me that's 6.5 hrs at home. At a public charger - note that I would not normally do this ever - it would be 11.5 hrs. Normally if I'm on my way to a city that doesn't have a supercharger I'll hit up the last one before I get to my destination, and nearly top off. Then and around the city/town, I wouldn't run it down below half before charging.

On this trip, I realized that the slow L2 charger network can actually be an effective backup plan for if you are cutting it close to get to your next super-charger; If you look for them, you can discover whether there is one 25 or so miles before your target super-charger. If you are cutting it too close, you can detour to the L2 charger briefly to give yourself a little more buffer.

And yes, what Beau said - charge rates start at 550 mrph if your battery is <50% and you are at a 150kw supercharger - but by 80% battery, you are down to 150 mrph charge rate. So the going from 80->90% takes as much time as going from 10->50%.

Amusing side note: The #2 cause of needing extra charging stops for me so far is occupying myself while charging in such a way that I'm not ready to go when the car is charged - and then ending up driving faster to make up the time I wasted neither driving nor charging!

[BeauV]

I'm afraid that the dual-clutch shifting has even crept into the 718 GT2, which was solely a 6-speed before last year. sigh.... Of course, as we all know, the dual-clutch car is faster (by 0.5 seconds) doing a drag race 0-60.

I had been harboring a latent desire to get a 718 GT2 or the 4.0 with a rag top as my final street sports car. Especially given Tesla hasn't said a word recently about their follow-on sports car.

[H B]

Thanks for the replies on the charging. In 10 years I suspect charging stations will be like corner gas stations with a liquor store attached.

Beau, I think even some of the latest torque converter trannies are probably faster than the average guy can shift a manual. Dual clutch cars are superior in terms of shifting speed in every way as far as I can ascertain.

[kdh]

Beau, isn't the 718 GT2 one of the cars that's impossible to get? The 718 is a great car.

I've had a double clutch on my 991 C2S for a while now. It is in every way superior to a manual. The shift choices even are better than what I would do with the paddles. There are a lot of little tricks like a quick blip of the accelerator to downshift, and the electronics adapt to driving style really well at this point.

I noticed the other day that my Ferrari is now worth more than I paid for it. There seems to be a premium for naturally aspirated cars generally now given that emissions regulations make them much less available.

Adele and Ann both have a VW GTi now. Both manuals, with a turbo-laggy 4. I must admit they're fun to drive, if suboptimal from a performance perspective.

[avramd]

I have another interesting data-point to share. I'm at a 250kw charger right now, only my third time at one (they are rare in the northeast, most are 72-150kw). This is the first time I've been at one with a nearly dead battery though.

When I was at 5% charge, I actually briefly cleared 1000 mrph charge rate, and spent several minutes over 900 mrph. I'm at 30% charge now, and the charge rate is down to 660 mrph. I was able to put the first 80 miles of range on in about 12 minutes.

In the time it took me to do the math on that, figure out what I wanted to say, and type it, I'm now at 55% charge, and have 175 miles of range, and am charging at 400 mrph.

Here's a screen shot from the beginning of the process, just for fun:

[BeauV]

I didn't write the numbers down, but we once charged from about 10% full to 80% full up at Lake Tahoe when it was around about 30° F. That let the cooling system keep the batteries at the right temp despite the thing air. (alt. around 6,500 feet. It was the fastest re-charge I've ever done. I was amazed. This is really all about temperature control. It's MUCH slower down in the central valley of CA when the air temp is 105° F.

[SemiSalt]

Diesel electric submarines have tricky heat management issues, too.

[avramd]

Beau, I have to say, I've had my first actual pleasant experience with auto-steer. Coming home from Maine in the middle of the night, with very little traffic, for the first half or the journey it is three or more lanes. By staying out of both edge lanes, so there are no exits, and no guardrail, it really was very nice. I don't know if Tesla adjusted the Y's requirements for torque or if I simply found a couple of hand/elbow positions that enabled me to relax while giving it the necessary input, but it really worked, it actually made the drive less tiring.

You're definitely right that in general the roads in the northeast are not in the feature's sweet spot. Now that I "get it," I'm actually kinda surprised that I found a nearly uninterrupted 90 mile stretch (So. ME to Boston) where it worked. Only at night though - during the day with highly variable car speeds around me, it still requires too much attention.

[BeauV]

Beau, I have to say, I've had my first actual pleasant experience with auto-steer. Coming home from Maine in the middle of the night, with very little traffic, for the first half or the journey it is three or more lanes. By staying out of both edge lanes, so there are no exits, and no guardrail, it really was very nice. I don't know if Tesla adjusted the Y's requirements for torque or if I simply found a couple of hand/elbow positions that enabled me to relax while giving it the necessary input, but it really worked, it actually made the drive less tiring.

You're definitely right that in general the roads in the northeast are not in the feature's sweet spot. Now that I "get it," I'm actually kinda surprised that I found a nearly uninterrupted 90 mile stretch (So. ME to Boston) where it worked. Only at night though - during the day with highly variable car speeds around me, it still requires too much attention.

Glad to hear it came through for you. As I've said, I use that feature a LOT. But CA drivers and roads maybe different enough that it works. It may also be the case that the roads I drive upon are close to the factory and have been used for testing far more than roads in your area. As to your weight on the wheel, I think you'll find that if you just put your wrist through the wheel and rest the weight of your arm on the wheel the autopilot will be happy with your contribution. A friend does have a fishing weight that he hangs on the wheel. It works, but I don't trust that I'd pay enough attention if I didn't need to do anything.

Almost all of my trips under autopilot have been in the far left lane. Unlike many E. Coast roads I've driven on, almost all CA roads have a 10' wide shoulder between the left-most lane's left edge and any physical obstruction. (Although this has disappeared in heavy traffic areas.) I've never found a problem with the autopilot losing its way in the left-most lane. To the contrary, our roads have well-marked double-yellow striped lines on the left side of the far left lane, and the autopilot seems to be willing to follow that at ever juncture except when the left lane turns into two lanes. Then, it will follow the right-hand line of the new #2 lane for a bit.

[Olaf Hart]

I remember driving through Richmond Va in driving rain at night, the freeway was a nightmare as it was full of traffic and I couldn’t make out the lane lines at all.

How would the self drive function in this scenario?

[BeauV]

I remember driving through Richmond Va in driving rain at night, the freeway was a nightmare as it was full of traffic and I couldn’t make out the lane lines at all.

How would the self drive function in this scenario?

In a word: TERRIBLE

For all the reasons you couldn't see where you were going, the car wouldn't be able to see. It would be like trying to use your boat autopilot without a compass.

[Olaf Hart]

Thanks, it’s the only time I have been anxious driving in nearly 55 years, not helped by being on her “ wrong” side of the road.

I had hoped the Tesla system would have some sort of backup system to road markings, it’s a bit of a problem if it is incapacitated by whiteouts, fog and rain squalls…

[BeauV]

Well at least the autopilot will slow the car to a stop if it encounters fog. I was once in a 32 car wreck on my way to Oxford UK. I had slowed in the fog and successfully stoped for what was about 6 cars already wrecked, at that point. I was hit from behind by an IDIOT going about 45. Then we proceeded to listen to people screaming for help punctuated by additional idiots piling into the mess.

Humans make the autopilot look really smart at times.

[avramd]

I remember driving through Richmond Va in driving rain at night, the freeway was a nightmare as it was full of traffic and I couldn’t make out the lane lines at all.

How would the self drive function in this scenario?

Olaf, while this won't help an auto-pilot, I have found that a fresh manual application of Rain-x is so effective in these conditions that I actually enjoy driving in them. I keep a bottle of the stuff, a small collapsible squeegee, windex, paper towels, and a small spray-bottle of regular water. I've gotten to where I can apply it in about 3 minutes, so I only bother if I see a storm coming that I'm going to be driving through, or if I have a long leg coming and there are storms in the forecast.

When it actually happens, I have easily 10x the visibility of anybody else on the road. I can drive 60-70 MPH with absolutely no restrictions in visibility. It's astonishing how much difference it makes when the application is by-hand, and fresh. It is a lot like having studded snow tires & all wheel drive during a snow storm - and many of the same risks and additional responsibilities apply. When I'm near anybody else, I need to simply expect every car to be about to do something I would normally consider either insane or impossible - and drive at a speed that gives me time to react when it happens. As for lanes, even though I can see them, often nobody else can, so they are not honoring them. Much like with snow, the traffic invents its own lanes. But the less prepared cars tend to clump together, so there are only brief moments of negotiating my way through them before I have open road agin.

Here is a video I took on the way home from a trip to the FL keys.

Unfortunately, the video betrays the true visibility b/c the camera is vibrating from the road and the engine (pre Tesla). If you look at the definition of the edge of the hood, you can get a sense for how much apparent visibility reduction is actually coming from camera shake.

It happened to occur to me to snap a screen capture of the radar showing the storm i was driving in right after I took this video, so I'm including that for reference too.

[avramd]

It may also be the case that the roads I drive upon are close to the factory and have been used for testing far more than roads in your area.

Interesting point, it also didn't occur to me that it might be augmenting what the cameras see with crowd-source data based on the GPS location. Either way, yes, your car may well know your roads much better than my car knows mine.

As to your weight on the wheel, I think you'll find that if you just put your wrist through the wheel and rest the weight of your arm on the wheel the autopilot will be happy with your contribution. A friend does have a fishing weight that he hangs on the wheel. It works, but I don't trust that I'd pay enough attention if I didn't need to do anything.

For me, I'm still hypersensitive to what happens when auto-steer shuts off. I'm less concerned with the amount of physical effort it takes me than I am with how hard the wheel will turn when auto-steer shuts off. The thing that made this trip so much better than others was that I found a way to rest my elbow on the windowsill and my hand on a wheel spoke such that the actual amount of torque on the wheel was almost nothing - so as a result, if AS shut off, I wouldn't inadvertently jerk the car drastically.

I have a suspicion that Tesla secretly reduced the minimum amount of torque required by a Model Y one of these description-less software updates they pushed out recently. I'm fairly certain it's told me I wasn't applying enough torque in the past when I was applying more than on this trip.

[TheOffice]

Second quarter US EV sales as a percentage of total sales:
Porsche 17.7% (3,359 Taycan sales out of 18,958 overall Porsche sales)
Volkswagen 4.8% (5,756 ID.4 sales out of 120,520 overall Volkswagen sales)
Audi 3.8% (2,560 e-tron + e-tron Sportback sales out of 66,995 overall Audi sales)
Chevrolet 2.6% (11,263 Bolt EV/EUV sales out of 433,155 overall Chevrolet sales)
Nissan 1.7% (4,804 LEAF sales out of 280,282 overall Nissan sales)
Ford 1.4% (6,356 Mustang Mach-E sales out of 451,813 overall Ford sales)
BMW 0.5% (511 i3 sales out of 96,561 overall BMW sales)

[H B]

I remember driving through Richmond Va in driving rain at night, the freeway was a nightmare as it was full of traffic and I couldn’t make out the lane lines at all.

How would the self drive function in this scenario?

Driving thru Richmond, VA is STILL like that!! hahahaha...Except they did build an Interstate (I-295) bypass around Richmond. The original construction pave job was terrible and the road was crumbling in just a few years, but when recently re-paved has become an excellent alternative.. It also connects (and shortens the distance) to I-64 (East-West) which takes you out to Norfolk/Va Beach area. Did some work there recently so I got to drive it a few times. They have just about finished the I-64 widening out to Williamsburg, but even under construction, it was generally faster than taking old Route 301/17..although I probably split half and half the Interstate route vs the back road route..depends on my mood, and there are LOTS more places to stop on Route 17.

There are some places on I-64 where there are no street lights (no electricity along that stretch), no guardrails and no shoulder, just woods on either side and in the middle, but the road is almost perfectly straight, and lines are relatively well marked..I wonder how the AutoPilot would work there ?

This month's (August) Car & Driver has a big EV write up. I haven't gotten to the main story about which EV they think is best, but the MachE taillights are on the cover, so I guess they like the EV 'Stang the best. My neighbor just bought one, but I haven't been in it yet. It is interesting that Ford is marketing the F-150 Lightning as an EV that can back feed the juice in its battery and double as an emergency generator for your house!

[TheOffice]

The tear-downs of the E-Stang by Sandy Munro are interesting. There are places where he praises the engineering and places where it lag behind Tesla. The one place the Y lags behind every other car is fit and finish/panel gaps, especially on the earlier cars.
The E-Stang is outselling the real Mustang. I haven't seen any pre-order numbers on the Lightening, but I'm guessing it is a home run. There will be an E Ram is 24.

Joel

[BeauV]

The more my Admiral and I have pondered the Ford Lightning marketing strategy the more impressed we are. (She's a retired Fortune 500 Chief Marketing Officer, I'm just an old computer hacker.)

By building a pickup truck that is specifically designed for fleet purchases and fleet operations, they will clobber the competition while leaving their #1 market-share customers entirely alone with their gasoline burners. The number of wanta-be-cowboys who drive F-150s with big rims, nobby tires, and a Black Rifle Coffee sticker on the window who will buy an electric pickup truck is just about zero. But, the fleets will love 'em. This is standing ovation time for the Ford truck marketing folks.

By the time Ego Musk gets his pickup truck into the market, there won't be an opportunity for one.

I've heard from an engine supplier to long-haul tractor trucks that Ford is also talking to them about a swappable battery long-haul tractor. Ford wants that market and is willing to go after the traditional trucks complete with a battery supply service and swapping machines. The rumor is that they'll have truck stops equipped within a year to do a battery swap in about 5 minutes. The more important thing is that they could end up taking over the in-city hauling. A lot of folks don't realize it, but in certain areas trucks have to burn ultra-clean fuel and be powered by ultra-clean diesel. Those engines are not generally considered durable enough for making long-haul cross-country runs. So, Ford would start with fleets of trucks that make that last 100mile haul from a swap station to the center of the city/port and back out again. This would get some of the worst polluting miles of trucking down to zero. When a truck is operating on its torque peak on the interstate, it's not that terrible. But when it's idling in cities or stopping at each traffic light and then accelerating again, it's terrible.

[avramd]

By building a pickup truck that is specifically designed for fleet purchases and fleet operations, they will clobber the competition while leaving their #1 market-share customers entirely alone with their gasoline burners

This amusingly is a perfect parallel to my comments about the F/A-18 vs the other teen-series fighters in the "silly things I'm proud of" thread

[avramd]

By building a pickup truck that is specifically designed for fleet purchases and fleet operations, they will clobber the competition while leaving their #1 market-share customers entirely alone with their gasoline burners

This amusingly is a perfect parallel to my comments about the F/A-18 vs the other teen-series fighters in the "silly things I'm proud of" thread

[BeauV]

Wow! Talk about parallel posts ^^^

[Olaf Hart]

Not about cars, but about Tesla

https://www.solarquotes.com.au/blog/vic ... EHbekTD33o

[TheOffice]

Ford claims to have over 120,000 deposits for the Lightning, and over 75% are from people who do not own a Ford.
In the meantime, the Bronco appears to be an engineering nightmare.

The deposits are refundable, so we'll see how that translates into sales.

[slap]

Bronco - Never own a car that's in its first two years of production.

[TheOffice]

Bronco - Never own a car that's in its first two years of production.

Agreed! This one sounds like an engineering mess.

[H B]

Bronco - Never own a car that's in its first two years of production.

Agreed! This one sounds like an engineering mess.

Facts!

[BeauV]

Not about cars, but about Tesla

https://www.solarquotes.com.au/blog/vic ... EHbekTD33o

In reading this article, be certain to read the last paragraph about the explosion and fire in a nearby coal-fired power plant.

We are at the very beginning of this technology. Shits going to happen. Frankly, I'm surprised more Tesla cars haven't had fires. So far, they are way WAY below the number of car fires in gasoline-powered cars during their first decade on the road.