Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

[kdh]

Keith,

Oddly, I've only ever done dog-sledding in Jackson, WY. we went way back into the park in mid-winter. It was beautiful! I'd forgotten how much I enjoyed that.

We did that trip in Jackson when Adele was little. Went to a hot spring and back.

[Steele]

I have always wanted to see Yellowstone in winter. I am not sure if dogsleds are allowed. They used to allow snowmobiles, but I find them obnoxious. There now appears to be a viable EV version,

2022-taiga-nomad-electric-snowmobile-111-1647031155.jpeg

They apparently work ok, which surprises me. Weight is the enemy of anything in deep snow, and the cold is an issue with the batteries. Write up here, https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/a3 ... ile-drive/

[kdh]

My grandfather used to have one of these. It was very light and was unstoppable when more modern sleds weren't.

[Ken Heaton (Salazar)]

We had the exact same model. Only about 7 or 8 HP. Unstoppable even in deep powder. Not fast. When the big powerful machines got tired of following the skinny kid (me) on the ancient Ski Doo that was breaking trail for them they would pull out and try to pass, then disappear down into the powder. We'd stop, dig them out and they'd fall back in behind and not try to pass again.

We kept that machine around for years as nothing could touch it for breaking trail in 6' deep powder, it really was unstoppable, if the driver was light enough ...

[TheOffice]

Reviving an old thread -

Today I saw both a Polestar 2 and a Rivian pickup.

The Polestar was a white hatch that looked much like a VW ID4, but with cooler taillights.

The Rivian was surrounded by full-size pickups and appeared to be sized more like a Toyota Tacoma. It was smaller than both the F150 and Silverado that were around it.

Didn't get a look at either from the front, but both stood out from behind.

Good to see both in the wild!

[kimbottles]

Son Derek took delivery of his Rivian Pick Up a couple weeks ago. He is quite happy with it.

[Slick470]

We are shopping for our next car for Sarah after she totaled her car in the spring. She really wanted a Leaf, but after talking to a couple current owners she is less interested. Nissan apparently is either going to give it a major refresh or retire it soon. They went from 5 trims in the 2022 models to 2 in the 2023.

So, we're back in the research phase. Not sure what we'll end up with. If Rivian offered a lower spec version of the truck for a bit less cash I'd consider that for me and give Sarah my car, but that probably isn't happening.

[TheOffice]

Leaf and Bolt are both being retired.

[BeauV]

I read an article that 5% of new car purchases are electric now, in CA it is about 12%. The lack of a standard charging method is a problem, as are the peak load on power grids and finding places for folks in apartments to charge up. But, it's really taking off and the manufacturers simply can't keep up. I see about one Rivian a week now, and about a zillion F-150s. I think Ford will dominate the market for pick-ups once they debug manufacturing and ramp. But it's not as nice a truck as the Rivian and it's not real right now. IMHO.

[Slick470]

The lack of a standard charging method is a problem

This was one of my major hangups on getting a Leaf as it is the last hold out using CHAdeMO in the US. It's still a popular tech in parts of Europe and Asia, but other than Tesla, everyone else has gone to CSS. Even Nissan is moving to CSS with their new EV model. We probably would have been just fine with CHAdeMO on a Leaf as our usage for that car would allow for Level 2 charging to provide almost all of our needs. We have an ICE car for long trips and the EV would be just an around town car with the ability to charge overnight at home. (after I installed a charger...)

[Steele]

I just purchased a new light duty pickup after my old nissan developed transmission and suspesnsion problems that would have cost 60% of it's value to fix. I would have liked an electric or even hybrid option but the Rivian has way more capabilities than I need, and the electric F150 is too big. Both also cost about twice what I paid for a Honda Ridgeline. Apparently waiting lists are many months long for the electric trucks and the nissan was not going to last.
The wife's Audi has 113K miles on it so we will try to nurse it along for another year or two then get an electric sedan or small SUV. It is very likely the Ridgleine is the last ICE vehicle we will ever buy.

[Olaf Hart]

Steele, we are in a similar situation, although the market in Oz is about ten years behind the US.
All the new utes (small pickups) on the market are diesel, and the DPF problem stories abound. Having been burnt already by the DPF on our VW Multivan we are not going that direction, hence the Cute Ute, which is a V6 petrol model with low miles from 2004, we plan to keep it long term as our truck.
The CRV was new in 2013, and is going fine. We want to replace it with an EV but our preferred option, the new VW EV van, looks like only having five seats so its a bit of a "why bother" compared to the CRV at the moment.
The big problem here is we have no EV charge infrastructure in Oz. We are probably the worst first world country in the EV market atm, and there is no clear plan to address it. I see the occasional Tesla or Hyundai on the road, but these are all home charged.

[Olaf Hart]

Interestingly, it appears that Tasmania is the only carbon positive place on the earth, even allowing for motor vehicles. All our power is Hydro, and we stopped cutting old growth forests ten years ago. Nearly half of the island is National Parks, and we have no heavy industrial industry, so we appear to have lucked in on the climate story.

Doesn't mean we are not looking forward to more global warming though...

[SemiSalt]

Leaf and Bolt are both being retired.

Chevy is teasing an ev Blazer. Apparently, they are going to bigger vehicles, or maybe more expensive vehicles as Ford has done. How much is technology-related (bigger vehicles can carry the battery weight better) and how much is market-driven (rich people will pay a premium)?

[Olaf Hart]

EV's are significantly heavier than their IC cousins, I suspect it is more profitable to add weight to heavy vehicles, rather than add lightness to smaller ones.

[Steele]

Around here diesel private vehicles have almost disappeared. I think this is related to both the VW diesel scandal as well as buyers interested in lower running costs moving to electric rather than other fuel sources. There are still oversize diesel pickups on the road, usually raised 3 feet in the air and belching black smoke. They are never seen hauling or towing anything.
Keep in mind most of the time EVs are charged overnight at home. For us that means keeping the gas Honda as our road trip car, and using a future electric for almost everything else. I don't know the distances you regularly travel in Tazmania, but if it is 200 miles or less a day an EV may still be an option.

[BeauV]

Leaf and Bolt are both being retired.

Chevy is teasing an ev Blazer. Apparently, they are going to bigger vehicles, or maybe more expensive vehicles as Ford has done. How much is technology-related (bigger vehicles can carry the battery weight better) and how much is market-driven (rich people will pay a premium)?

It is always easier to build an expensive car than an inexpensive one. A senior engineer at Toyota, who was my customer back in the late '90s, explained that they put their best engineers on the small light economy cars, the amateurs worked on the Lexus line. With a premium brand you can always raise prices to cover poor engineering. Tesla got this exactly right up to two years ago when they stopped building anything new.

As to operating costs, I now know of 4 limo companies that are totally Tesla Model S. Their operating expenses are tracked extremely carefully. The maintenance on the Tesla Model S is so low that the cross over against a large Lincoln or Caddy is at 60,000 miles. The local Santa Cruz based limo service we use to get to the airport for trips longer than 5 days (the break-even point) has 5 Teslas, the "youngest" one has 230,000 miles on it, and the oldest has 612,000 miles on it. Battery packs seem to give out at about 300,000 miles. Even with a battery pack replacement, they completely clobber the Lincoln and Caddy sedans and destroy the MBZ, BMW, and Audi. This service used to use Audis, the Teslas are 34% of the operating costs once one gets to 200,000 miles and fall faster from there.

[TheOffice]

Semi hit on an important point.

People who can afford a $20,000 will continue to buy ICE cars until there is no price differential between an ICE car and an EV. The tax credit covers the differential, but Tesla and Toyota are out of credits. (Nissan probably is too). Hyundai will run out before long, followed by VW and GM.

If I were king, I would offer an incentive that decreases as the price of the car goes up in order to help sell cheaper EVs. People buying a Mercedes, Porsche or BMW EV will do so without incentives.

We drove to NYC this weekend. The NJ Turnpike has Tesla chargers at rest stops. We stopped once each way. Maybe 4 out of 10 chargers were in use. I don't know if the rest of the world can charge on the Turnpike, and I did not see any chargers in Manhattan or Brooklyn (although I was not really looking for them). For now, EVs are limited to fleets, owners of single family homes or people who can charge at work or while shopping in the burbs.

[BeauV]

Downtown San Francisco and LA are full of chargers. Mid-day they are empty, mornings and late into the night they are busy.

[TheOffice]

On page 370 of the 725 page Schumer Manchin bill the cap on the number of electric vehicles per manufacturer is eliminated. Good news for Tesla!

[kimbottles]

I got to drive our son's Rivian PU this morning.
WOW, whole new experience.
Quad motors, air suspension.
Regenerating braking, never use the brake pedal.
I think I will step up and get in line for the SUV version.

[H B]

My Dad is on the waiting list for an Aptera...he is almost 85. I love the man, but I am not sure if he will ever drive one.

He also drives a 40-some foot long RV and drags his CRV and 3-wheel Sypder behind it, so I don't think he's in it for reducing his carbon foot print!

I suspect the Aptera would replace both the Spyder and maybe the CRV, and simplify his trailer arrangement..if it ever happens.

[SemiSalt]

The NJ Turnpike has Tesla chargers at rest stops. We stopped once each way. Maybe 4 out of 10 chargers were in use.

So, how long to charge your EV on the NJ Turnpike on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving?

[BeauV]

The NJ Turnpike has Tesla chargers at rest stops. We stopped once each way. Maybe 4 out of 10 chargers were in use.

So, how long to charge your EV on the NJ Turnpike on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving?

Key point right here ^^^^^

I think the biggest difference between an E-car and a G-car (E=electric) is similar to what used to happen when you drove a diesel car: You have to plan! Many of us human types are NOT good at planning and don't enjoy it. (That gives the planning part of the population a massive advantage in everything from education to job advancement, but that's a different post.) With G-cars, there is almost always a gas station within a few miles, and rarely a line. We pay a massive premium for gasoline to amortize the cost of all that infrastructure. (Estimates are that we have 5 times the number of gas stations we'd need if we knew how to plan.) But, there you have it.

With an E-car you need to plan your stops, potentially have to wait to fill up (like the '74 oil embargo for G-cars), and may be forced to face the fact that you're one of those who can't or won't plan a trip.

Of course, there are times when planning won't solve a massive overload of the system. Thus, Semi's correct post above. But, those are outliers, and given they only happen to a tiny percentage of the people on a tiny percentage of the days each year, they should be ignored. But, we human types remember the outliers including only the peak boat speed and wind speed during a race. I am literally researching human memory of boat and wind speed in an attempt to get an accurate view of how far off humans are. So far, it looks like the "perceived average speed" is about 80% of the way to the peak and FAR above the actual mean or median, regardless of how rarely the peak occurs. (Boat speed is particularly off as folks shout out the peaks with glee and never mention the speed when dogging it.)

Finally, this queueing problem with E-cars is a temporary thing and one where Tesla has a MASSIVE advantage over any non-Tesla E-cars. They have sunk much more capital into the infrastructure across the globe and it is an extremely astute strategy as we lazy humans don't want to plan. Secondly, Tesla has proven itself to be vastly superior at software both within the car and on the internet. For example, they have been shipping queuing assist software for over a decade and the competition still hasn't got it. The guidance software will route you to the charger with the shortest queue. Therefore, we'll pay more for an E-car and more for electricity if we can only be relieved of the cognitive load of "planning". It's akin to the success of the east coast shuttle airline. Just show up, there's one every hour. Despite the obvious higher cost, we humans sign up because so many of us can't plan.

[TheOffice]

Having driven the NJ Turnpike on Thanksgiving weekend, I can tell you it is a nightmare to be avoided no matter what you drive, and there will easily be a 15-20 wait for gas.

just as we can't build 24 lane highways to account for peak rush hour travel, we can't build 50 lane superchargers to be used 4x a year.

Joel

[SemiSalt]

Having driven the NJ Turnpike on Thanksgiving weekend, I can tell you it is a nightmare to be avoided no matter what you drive, and there will easily be a 15-20 wait for gas.

just as we can't build 24 lane highways to account for peak rush hour travel, we can't build 50 lane superchargers to be used 4x a year.

Joel

Just to be a know-it-all, I'll point out the 295 is a viable alternative to the Turnpike, and equally likely to be crowded, and that if you take 130 from New Brunswick to Bordentown, you may still get to your destination before sunset.

Also, leaving the NJ pike for the Penn Pike and then 476 down to 95 is not an awful deal. Also, if you take the Penn pike and the messy connection to 95, you pass a concentration of gas stations.

[H B]

Having driven the NJ Turnpike on Thanksgiving weekend, I can tell you it is a nightmare to be avoided no matter what you drive, and there will easily be a 15-20 wait for gas.

just as we can't build 24 lane highways to account for peak rush hour travel, we can't build 50 lane superchargers to be used 4x a year.

Joel

Just to be a know-it-all, I'll point out the 295 is a viable alternative to the Turnpike, and equally likely to be crowded, and that if you take 130 from New Brunswick to Bordentown, you may still get to your destination before sunset.

Also, leaving the NJ pike for the Penn Pike and then 476 down to 95 is not an awful deal. Also, if you take the Penn pike and the messy connection to 95, you pass a concentration of gas stations.

Smart man, Semi... When I would travel (Turkey day weekend to the starter wife's family in Lincoln, MA from Southern Maryland and back), we would often hop off the NJTP at Exit 6 or so to I-295. This was all pre-Google map/cell phone days, and we had CB's in our Accords and Civics for potty breaks/gas/food/alternate routes.

My forever wife had friends in Harleysville, PA, so we also know the I-95/476/Penn Turnpike route thru Wilmington/Conshohocken (I always say "here we go thru Caughtcha' Honkin'!"). Also, sometimes (and today I still prefer this route), is when headed to NE, skip NYC all together, and go up 9A over to the TappanZee (I know it is not called that anymore.)

When we go to NH in a couple weeks (those Harleysville people moved to NH ), we will just stay west of the Hudson until we can cross over somewhere close to Canada, eh?

[Panope]

........a one year report on the Cheapo Leaf-o

-2013 Nissan Leaf.
-Had 39,000 miles when I bought it. Now has 46,000 miles (12 months later).
-Car is driven at least 6 days per week.
-Battery capacity seems to be (still) near 100%.
-All charging during my ownership has been via 120V.
-I have not bothered to install a 240 volt outlet at any parking spots that I frequent.
-I do not own a 240 volt charge cord.
-I have charged at locations other than at my houses exactly twice (120V at my fathers house).
-Other than a hubcap that fell off twice (on the same corner, near my house, recovered, fixed), the car has been trouble free.

Usually, things like power windows and other electronic automotive gadgets do not seem to improve my experience significantly. However, I fucking love the keyless entry/ignition! No more digging keys out of pockets while fumbling with armloads of groceries and stuff.

My only real complaint, is the blocked visibility that results from the wide and radically raked A-pillars. In general, these pillars should be located as far aft as possible and be narrower than the distance between human eyes (so that at least one eye might see a hazard). In the past, I have complained bitterly about modern car "rear visibility", but I am resigned to this now. Mirrors and the back-up camera are an adequate substitute for looking over ones shoulder. I guess.

I am happy with the car. Will keep.

Steve

Here is a 2 year report for the Cheap-o Leaf-o: (I posted the above, one year ago).

-53,000 miles. I am driving a steady 7,000 miles/year.
-Still no 240V charging. All charging via 120V "trickle" charging.
-Except for rare occasions, all charging is limited to 80% charge.

It appears that the fully charged range as declined about 2%, (based on the cars predicted range). Range is now about 82 miles. The onboard battery capacity read-out still shows "13 bars" out of 13 possible.

I guess Port Townsend is the perfect use case for these cars because it is small town on a peninsula with short driving distances. Perhaps even more important is this area's mild temperatures.

The car has had one problem: Driver door handle COVER as cracked. I will fix with 5200 next time I have a tube open (a proper fix requires removing the door panel - not gonna happen)

I think the car (and battery) will last a long time.

Steve

[BeauV]

Steve -- I think your conclusion is born out by various other electric car owners. The cars last a long long long time. There are lots of little things (like door handles) that give out, but the drive trains seem bomb-proof. As my lovely Admiral said about the Tesla-S she drives daily: "I've owned this car longer (8 years) than any car I've ever owned and I don't know of any new car I would prefer. I guess I'm keeping it." I'm about to go get some dog claw scratches in the leather fixed for her, I had a few minor door dings fixed last week, and we can still blow away almost every car on the road doing 0-60 from a stop light. Frankly, I'm surprised. I never expected this thing to be so reliable. Total repairs over 68,000 miles %1,350: an out of warranty replacement and upgrade of the computer and main dash board screen. The result is a much faster computer and far nicer screen. We paid more than that for a brake job on our Porsche Cayenne about every 15,000 miles.

[Olaf Hart]

I suspect the screens and dash IT are now a weak point on all new cars…