Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

[LarryHoward]

Between limited driving hours and shortages of drivers, long haul is a natural place to gain pretty quick acceptance of autonomous vehicles. Put a driver in for yard operations and turn the truck loose at the gate. Have it marshal at the entrance of the next depot and let it run. An efficient to rapidly accumulate a few hundred thousand miles of experience in autonomous ops. I think the states and feds will be more amenable to driverless ops on the open road at first.

Got to agree with Beau. Not a big deal in the Us but other places are already talking about restricting urban operations to zero emission vehicles. Electric “last mile” logistics seems a natural.

[BeauV]

There is a serious shortage of truck drivers. The semi addresses that.

I had no idea. The job pays well. Why is there a shortage???

[Ish]

There is a serious shortage of truck drivers. The semi addresses that.

I had no idea. The job pays well. Why is there a shortage???

There's a rush of drivers getting into coal mining.

[Ajax]

It's happening: http://money.cnn.com/2018/01/04/investi ... p-grid-dom

If the stock does indeed fall 40%, I'll pick up some shares. It is definitely time for Tesla to stop being exclusively an "idea machine" and actually produce the products that they promise.

[TheOffice]

Long haul drivers are away from home sleeping in their truck showering and eating in truck stops. Not a great lifestyle.

I think the comparison of Tesla to Amazon is I point. Took Amazon how many years to turn a profit? Tesla stock will continue to be volatile. You can make money when it goes up or down. Or lose it if your timing is wrong.

[Ajax]

It would be a long-term investment for me.

[BeauV]

So, I decided to do a little reading about dangerous jobs. It turns out that:

Long-haul truck drivers account for a quarter of all workplace deaths in America.

Source: https://www.therichest.com/rich-list/most-shocking/15-professions-with-shocking-low-life-expectancies/

What isn't mentioned in this article is that the #1 killer for truck drivers are medical issues related to sitting on one's ass in a truck all day and living off of diner food, not accidents on the road.

Color me surprised by this ^^^^

[TheOffice]

Had no idea it was that bad either! I thought cab drivers and commercial fishermen had the most dangerous jobs.

[JoeP]

'Put a driver in for yard operations'

With a local GPS/transpnder system there should be no need for drivers in the yard. Small diesel "tugs" would be more efficient at shuttling trailers from parking to loading docks and back and the highway tractors would be freed up to do the long hauls reducing idle time. Hell you can buy an F-150 today that will assist you in backing a trailer without the driver touching the wheel.

[BeauV]

You guys should see the Tesla parallel park or 90° park depending on the shape of the space. I kept looking for a place to tell it what to do, you don't have to.

The latest autopilot software doesn't have much trouble with driving highway 17, which amazed me. I know a lot of humans who have trouble with 17.

[Soñadora]

https://techcrunch.com/2018/02/07/elon- ... -6-months/

I'm still predicting that we will see a Tesla car going coast-to-coast on a single charge by 2025. Maybe sooner.

and maybe not a Tesla.

[TheOffice]

I've done the test drive in a Model S. Amazing vehicle!

Rick, and 8 fold increase in range in 7 years? I could see it in a truck because there is a lot more room for batteries. But I hope you are correct! Imagine what that would mean for sailboats!

[BeauV]

I think they can do it today with the current technologies, but will only do it as a Tech Demo and marketing stunt.

Model X load carrying capacity is about 1,500 pounds of passengers, 150 lbs of trailer tongue weight, and 300 lbs of luggage. The battery stack in the 100D like ours weighs about 1,200 lbs. source

On the normal battery we get just under 300 miles of range without resorting to stunts like turning off the AC and seat heaters, and driving at the speed limit. If we were to drive at 50 MPH, which we've occasionally been forced to do by traffic, we get about 350 miles while running all the toys. (Autopilot takes a lot of power for computing as well as sensors.)

Thus, simply replacing the normal passenger and cargo loads with batteries gets the Model X to a bit over 800-900 miles per charge. All one need do is beef up the suspension to carry more batteries and change the tires to low-rolling friction over inflated tires and add two more battery stacks. The weight of the vehicle would increase from 5,400 lbs to about 9,000 lbs. It's trivial to support a 10,000 lb car with overload springs and hard tires.

I think we should give it a go!! Sounds like a fun project!

[TheOffice]

Musk pull a marketing stunt? Like launching his car into space?

Most gas cars only have a range of 400 miles or less. The base 3 will be 215. If they were do double that or lower the $9,000 premium for the long range battery they would be much closer to a mass-market car. There's room in the frunk for more batteries.

[LarryHoward]

Musk pull a marketing stunt? Like launching his car into space?

Most gas cars only have a range of 400 miles or less. The base 3 will be 215. If they were do double that or lower the $9,000 premium for the long range battery they would be much closer to a mass-market car. There's room in the frunk for more batteries.

As I understand is, the 3’s they are delivering today are upgraded versions with extended range batteries. The base “$35000 Model 3” wont be along until 2019 or so. Starting to push against the expiration of the $7500 tax credit. https://www.greencarreports.com/news/10 ... its-expire

Musk is brilliant in marketing and talking about shiney things as well as making huge technology jumps. Seems 3-4 years on average from his “hey look at this that will deliver soon” to production.

[kdh]

Musk pull a marketing stunt? Like launching his car into space?

Most gas cars only have a range of 400 miles or less. The base 3 will be 215. If they were do double that or lower the $9,000 premium for the long range battery they would be much closer to a mass-market car. There's room in the frunk for more batteries.

But with gas at 350 miles you spend 5 minutes at a ubiquitous gas station and get another 350.

The appeal of the Tesla is the same as for the iPhone X. It's not practicality.

[Ish]

I think they can do it today with the current technologies, but will only do it as a Tech Demo and marketing stunt.

Model X load carrying capacity is about 1,500 pounds of passengers, 150 lbs of trailer tongue weight, and 300 lbs of luggage. The battery stack in the 100D like ours weighs about 1,200 lbs. source

On the normal battery we get just under 300 miles of range without resorting to stunts like turning off the AC and seat heaters, and driving at the speed limit. If we were to drive at 50 MPH, which we've occasionally been forced to do by traffic, we get about 350 miles while running all the toys. (Autopilot takes a lot of power for computing as well as sensors.)

Thus, simply replacing the normal passenger and cargo loads with batteries gets the Model X to a bit over 800-900 miles per charge. All one need do is beef up the suspension to carry more batteries and change the tires to low-rolling friction over inflated tires and add two more battery stacks. The weight of the vehicle would increase from 5,400 lbs to about 9,000 lbs. It's trivial to support a 10,000 lb car with overload springs and hard tires.

I think we should give it a go!! Sounds like a fun project!

If you're running the AC and the seat heaters at the same time I think I may see an issue.

[TheOffice]

If you're running the AC and the seat heaters at the same time I think I may see an issue.

Nah, I do it if I have a sore back.

[kdh]

If you're running the AC and the seat heaters at the same time I think I may see an issue.

Nah, I do it if I have a sore back.

Same here. Ann's truck has a steering wheel heater. Love that too.

[Soñadora]

I should clarify my thoughts. I believe there is a breakthrough in “battery” technology coming soon. Energy storage of some fashion that can be “charged” once. And won’t require teeth breaking, low friction tires, wheezy AC, or dumbed down electronics. The current form factor is pretty much at its maximum. We might be able to squeeze another 100 miles out of it, but that won’t be enough. I truly hope Musk is concerned about battery technology today for passenger vehicles.

Or

What may happen, given Musk’s cultural popularity, he develops infrastructure that keeps the battery charged on the road. Maybe charging towers every 10 miles or something beaming “charge juice”. Some kind of induction charging or something.

[Ish]

I should clarify my thoughts. I believe there is a breakthrough in “battery” technology coming soon. Energy storage of some fashion that can be “charged” once. And won’t require teeth breaking, low friction tires, wheezy AC, or dumbed down electronics. The current form factor is pretty much at its maximum. We might be able to squeeze another 100 miles out of it, but that won’t be enough. I truly hope Musk is concerned about battery technology today for passenger vehicles.

Or

What may happen, given Musk’s cultural popularity, he develops infrastructure that keeps the battery charged on the road. Maybe charging towers every 10 miles or something beaming “charge juice”. Some kind of induction charging or something.

If you eat the right breakfast, you might be able to recharge the car under way. Methane recovery is the future.

[floating dutchman]

Google the goodenough battery.
The future you predict is coming.

[Ajax]

Musk pull a marketing stunt? Like launching his car into space?

Most gas cars only have a range of 400 miles or less. The base 3 will be 215. If they were do double that or lower the $9,000 premium for the long range battery they would be much closer to a mass-market car. There's room in the frunk for more batteries.

But with gas at 350 miles you spend 5 minutes at a ubiquitous gas station and get another 350.

The appeal of the Tesla is the same as for the iPhone X. It's not practicality.

It is entirely practical, 95% of the time, for 95% of the population.

I owned and drove a '74 Beetle that I converted to battery power for two years. It had nothing like the capabilities of a Tesla, or even anything like the Nissan Leaf yet it was entirely practical. I was never stranded by running out of power. I drove my gasoline DeLorean maybe twice per month, putting fuel in it maybe once every 2 months.

I didn't even live in the city, I lived in the suburbs, where nothing was walkable. I drove it to work every day, 40 miles round trip. I drove it to my reserve unit in Baltimore once per month, 60 miles round trip. I plugged in at the Metro parking garage each morning when I arrived (but didn't need to, the car could make it home on a single charge.) I ran errands all over town, every day. I drove my family of four all over the place in that car. I really never found myself sitting around waiting for the car to charge. I was usually busy, doing something while it was charging and it was ready when I needed it. Maintenance was checking the water once per month. I never did anything else to the car in two years.

I retained some of the cargo capacity and all of the passenger capacity in the Beetle. I did this during the period of high fuel prices when prices were nearly $5.00 in Maryland. My co-workers were livid with me and began asking lots of questions.


If we replaced even 60% of ICE passenger vehicles with EV's, the pollution we'd eliminate would be enormous and I'm not even talking about greenhouse gasses. I'm talking about toxic fluid leaks such as transmission fluid, anti-freeze, engine oil, wasting valuable platinum on catalytic converters...*then* add a reduction in greenhouse gasses on top of all of that, if it appeals to you.

Tesla, Nissan and Toyota have proven that EVs are safe (excluding discussions about Tesla's semi-autonomous technology.) The cars have been in accidents and people aren't burning up in horrific balls of electrically created flame.

Yes, there are definitely use cases where current EV technology does not meet the requirements but anyone saying that EVs are not practical is letting "perfect" be the enemy of "very, very good." The Tesla X is the equivalent of the iPhone X but there are perfectly practical, lower cost EVs available and choices are growing.

EVs are here to stay and they are expanding. European countries have signed ICE vehicle bans into law which will take place several years from now. Automotive companies will not be allowed to sell ICE passenger vehicles in those countries once the bans take effect. Better get used to it. If Tesla doesn't start actually producing, they're going to get left behind by the companies that are able and willing to get these vehicles into the hands of their customers.

[BeauV]

Ajax, I agree, especially the bit about the industry catching up with Tesla. It is already happening. There will be a EV version of the sprinter van and the Ford F-150 in the near future.

Meanwhile, total mileage on our one gas car (the Mini) has been 123 miles in Six months. When I drove to Jackson Hole, a distance of 950 miles each way, I rented a Ford Explorer for a week for $350. I need that sort of car about twice a year. There is no way it makes sense to own one unless one is willing to look at a $50k asset depreciating in the driveway unused.

So far the two Teslas have actually provided the best solution about 99.3% of the time and we drive to and from SF fromSanta Cuz almost twice a week. Round trip is about 165 miles. We,venever had a problem with range.

[Panope]

Ajax, your electric Beetle sounds great. Can you give us more details, specs, and pictures?

I always though an electric Beetle would sacrifice the back seat passenger area for batteries. Where did you place your batteries?

I bet there is a thriving DIY electric conversion scene out there somewhere. Are the enthusiasts mining batteries and other components from wrecked Prius?

Steve

[VALIS]

Ajax, your electric Beetle sounds great. Can you give us more details, specs, and pictures?

I always though an electric Beetle would sacrifice the back seat passenger area for batteries. Where did you place your batteries?

I bet there is a thriving DIY electric conversion scene out there somewhere. Are the enthusiasts mining batteries and other components from wrecked Prius?

Steve

I would put them under the hood. I used to carry a 100# sack of coal there to improve the front-wheel traction (steering).

The Nissan Leaf seems to have an aftermarket going on. Being all-electric it's easier to use the parts in alternate configurations.

[Ajax]

Ajax, your electric Beetle sounds great. Can you give us more details, specs, and pictures?

I always though an electric Beetle would sacrifice the back seat passenger area for batteries. Where did you place your batteries?

I bet there is a thriving DIY electric conversion scene out there somewhere. Are the enthusiasts mining batteries and other components from wrecked Prius?

Steve

There *was* a thriving conversion scene. Once mainstream manufacturers started producing decent hybrids and dedicated EV's, people only do it as a hobby now. S-10 pickups were very popular. People packed batteries into the engine compartment and the frame rails and put lifting struts on the bed to access the batteries. Porsche 914's were also popular because they were easy to stuff full of batteries and had a decent profile.

- (6V) Low voltage, high capacity batteries give greater range but sacrifice top speed.
- (12v) High voltage, low capacity batteries give excellent speed but sacrifice range.
- (8V) Mid-voltage, mid-capacity batteries gave me a top speed of 70 mph and a range of 45 miles in the summer and 35 miles in the winter. These were golf cart and floor buffer batteries.

I used a PWM forklift motor controller to... control the motor. Hall effect sensor on the gas peddle.

I crammed batteries in the frunk, in the "parcel shelf" behind the rear seat, and in the engine compartment. Obviously, the fuel tank was removed from the frunk to make room for the batteries. I mounted a 110v Zivan battery charger in the frunk and mounted the plug where the fuel fill door is. Nominal voltage was 144V, if I recall.

I installed a DC-DC convertor that tapped the propulsion pack and stepped it down to 14v to power the headlights, wipers and other accessories. XM satellite radio, too. I installed an ammeter and voltmeter so that I could monitor how hard I was drawing from the pack and guesstimate what I had remaining. All analogue, nothing fancy. I tied a small, ceramic heater to the "shore power" circuit to heat the car during the winter while it was charging. I did not have heat while driving, but the car was always toasty warm when I first jumped in, and usually retained enough heat until I arrived at my destination. I didn't drive all bundled up.

You may be asking why I installed a 110v charger instead of 220v, to decrease charging times. It's because the availability of 110v outlets away from home, outweighed the advantage of having one 220v outlet at home. It was slower, but power was more readily available.

I'm not gonna lie, this thing was crude. Fun, but crude. I had to install Baja Bug suspension so that it could handle the weight. I hadn't upgraded to disc brakes yet, so I planned my stops "yesterday" so that the drum brakes could handle the heat and load.

[kdh]

Musk pull a marketing stunt? Like launching his car into space?

Most gas cars only have a range of 400 miles or less. The base 3 will be 215. If they were do double that or lower the $9,000 premium for the long range battery they would be much closer to a mass-market car. There's room in the frunk for more batteries.

But with gas at 350 miles you spend 5 minutes at a ubiquitous gas station and get another 350.

The appeal of the Tesla is the same as for the iPhone X. It's not practicality.

It is entirely practical, 95% of the time, for 95% of the population.

Ajax, of course you're right but my point was only that comparing an EV's range to gas is silly as with gas stations the ICEV has effectively infinite range.

I think there's nothing, from a technological standpoint, more important to civilization than the development of better battery technology. As such it's getting a huge amount of effort.

For now I'll keep my iPhone 5 and my outdated, obsolete Ferrari, thank you.

[Ajax]

LOL...I'm still using a Samsung S4. Samsung is about to release the S9. I hear you.

[TheOffice]

Ajax,

What did they say at the emissions test station? How big was the motor?