Conoravirus ...

[BeauV]

To Larry's point about positive cases being undercounted: I have 8 friends so far who have clearly had or are having COVID-19. None of them has been to the doctor or been tested. Four of them are sailing together now without masks. When called out as violating the Mask Rule in the NoR, they argued to the Protest Committee that 100% of the crew has had COVID-19 and that the NoR is poorly drafted as it overlooked this situation. They were tossed because they couldn't prove they'd had the disease. They don't sail with that Club anymore.

[Jamie]

Deaths are probably being undercounted as well, but perhaps less so. People are dying at home undiagnosed.

I bet when you look at excess deaths, the COVID deaths won't explain the full increase, though some of that extra morbidity could be caused by the anti-COVID policies and economic conditions.

[SemiSalt]

Deaths are probably being undercounted as well, but perhaps less so. People are dying at home undiagnosed.

I bet when you look at excess deaths, the COVID deaths won't explain the full increase, though some of that extra morbidity could be caused by the anti-COVID policies and economic conditions.

Analysis for NY here: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6919e5.htm

During March 11–May 2, 2020, a total of 32,107 deaths were reported to DOHMH; of these deaths, 24,172 (95% confidence interval = 22,980–25,364) were found to be in excess of the seasonal expected baseline. Included in the 24,172 deaths were 13,831 (57%) laboratory-confirmed COVID-19–associated deaths and 5,048 (21%) probable COVID-19–associated deaths, leaving 5,293 (22%) excess deaths that were not identified as either laboratory-confirmed or probable COVID-19–associated deaths.


21% of excess deaths not known to be related to Covid-19.

[BeauV]

Deaths are probably being undercounted as well, but perhaps less so. People are dying at home undiagnosed.

I bet when you look at excess deaths, the COVID deaths won't explain the full increase, though some of that extra morbidity could be caused by the anti-COVID policies and economic conditions.

Analysis for NY here: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6919e5.htm

During March 11–May 2, 2020, a total of 32,107 deaths were reported to DOHMH; of these deaths, 24,172 (95% confidence interval = 22,980–25,364) were found to be in excess of the seasonal expected baseline. Included in the 24,172 deaths were 13,831 (57%) laboratory-confirmed COVID-19–associated deaths and 5,048 (21%) probable COVID-19–associated deaths, leaving 5,293 (22%) excess deaths that were not identified as either laboratory-confirmed or probable COVID-19–associated deaths.


21% of excess deaths not known to be related to Covid-19.

It's probably fair to attribute the 21% excess deaths to a number of medical and psychological causes created as a side-effect of the lockdown and people's fear of having other medical problems addressed because they fear to go anywhere near a hospital.

[Olaf Hart]

Minus the deaths from other infectious respiratory illnesses like influenza.

[H B]

Damn, I have the mat and spinner on the boat already! I can hear "J" now- "Is that your hand on my bottom or...?"
"

[BeauV]

Minus the deaths from other infectious respiratory illnesses like influenza.

I believe the "normal" death rate from influenza is already in the base number. I think we're only talking about the "excess deaths" here. In some areas, influenza has actually dropped because so many folks are wearing masks and staying farther apart.

[Olaf Hart]

Minus the deaths from other infectious respiratory illnesses like influenza.

I believe the "normal" death rate from influenza is already in the base number. I think we're only talking about the "excess deaths" here. In some areas, influenza has actually dropped because so many folks are wearing masks and staying farther apart.

That’s certainly the case here, influenza deaths are less than 10% of the normal rate, and to date total COVID deaths are around 140 for the whole country, so we are ahead on nett deaths...

[kdh]

Tony better stick to his desk job.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1eD5xkn4WLA

[Jamie]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KzKvIYwqQkE

Interesting hand-puppets version of Docs are finding in COVID patients.

[Anomaly]

So..., who is flying or has flown lately? What was your experience? I need to make a decision about some pending travel. Soon. "Pending" seems a bit optimistic (foolish?) frankly. And then I see news like this:

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/08/04/ ... ine-there/

and wonder do they stop you on the way to Logan, or JFK, unless you have a negative test result at hand?

Asking for a friend...

[TheOffice]

Flew National to Logan last month on United. Felt uncomfortable. They charge more for seats in the front so everyone was crammed in the back. Young guys weren’t wearing masks. We got up and moved forward. Won’t do that again anytime soon.
Joel

[Jamie]

I flew to Maine on American mid-July. Not much fun at all. Ironically on two flights 1st was full but not economy.

Mask compliance was spotty. In more crowded airports like Philthydelphia and Charlotte it was impossible to socially distance. In Charlotte bars were open and people drinking and lining up in tight, long lines for food in the few open venues. My am flight was better than my afternoon flight. The flight from CLT to PBI was the worst flight. PHL to PWM the best. Maine had the best and most polite compliance.

I'm headed up to ME again next week, but this time with Southwest. I won't be flying American again for a long time.

I have my test results on my phone in case people ask and I stay away from people as much as I can.

[JoeP]

My wife flew from SEA to LAX on Alaska a few weeks ago and said they seated passengers with an empty seat between them unless it was a couple or family, basically trying to provide social distance as much as possible. SeaTac was like a ghost town on what would normally be a very busy and crowded time both when she left and came back.

[TheOffice]

5 millions cases and counting, including 97,000 children in the last 2 weeks.

As W said to the FEMA director after Katrina, you're doing a hell of a job Brownie!

Joel

[BeauV]

There may be some good news in the data, the growth in “Confirmed Cases" seems to have flattened. I’ll go into the caveats surround the data, but there just may be a flattening in the growth in the number of cases with it holding steady at around 50,000 cases per day. It’s interesting to note that the recent run-up in cases started in the weeks following Memorial Day.

There are two major caveats to keep firmly in mind when reading these numbers.

First, “Confirmed Cases” have to be processed by a qualified laboratory and as we all know there is a shortage of through-put at these laboratories nationally. Responses from those doing the tests have extended to such a degree that the testing time is now up to about 5 to 7 days,. This is a significant percentage of the interval between millions of cases.

Second, these numbers are highly political and difficult to deal with, In California, we have very recently been told that the State was under-reporting due to a “technical glitch”. Something that seems to resemble incompetence or an over-whelmed system vs technology. After all, it’s simple addition and computer do that rather well.

On the Federal level, reporting was shifted from the CDC to the Department of Homeland Security. This opened the Administration to all manner of criticism, as the numbers started to flatten out as soon as the reporting change was made. So much so, that many reporting entities have started to source their own information from the States; which is part of what lead to the scrutiny of California’s numbers.

Given those clear issues with the source of the data. Here are the macro results:

To go from:
1 to 2 million cases took 45 days
2 to 3 million cases took 27 days
3 to 4 million cases took 15 days
4 to 5 million cases took 17 days

I certainly hope this is indicative of something other than an inadequate supply of tests, bad programming, and political manipulation. We need some good news.

[BeauV]

One of my UCSF Medical School buddies has said that San Quintin will be a brutal real-world test of "herd immunity". Here are the initial results.

2/3 of the population of the prison has COVID, healthy people continue to become infected. Herd immunity has not been reached. I do realize that this is not a direct analog for the wider population, however, the results are still sobering.

If we extrapolate to the US population, this means over 2,500,000 Americans would die, 767 out of 100,000.

Source

[LarryHoward]

One of my UCSF Medical School buddies has said that San Quintin will be a brutal real-world test of "herd immunity". Here are the initial results.

2/3 of the population of the prison has COVID, healthy people continue to become infected. Herd immunity has not been reached. I do realize that this is not a direct analog for the wider population, however, the results are still sobering.

If we extrapolate to the US population, this means over 2,500,000 Americans would die, 767 out of 100,000.

Source

Key points are really that we need to develop an effective vaccine and effective treatments (no bleach injections). Until then, lockdowns will slow the spread (flatten the curve) and buy us time while we continue to burden blue collar service workers with higher risks. No matter how much of the GDP comes from tech workers and others who can readily telecommute, we all need power, water, sewer, food and transportation of goods to keep going. Spain, Victoria (Aus) and yesterday NZ are aptly demonstrating that you cant run from this virus. Until we can impart some immunity through a vaccine, there is no "return to normal".

[H B]

Spain, Victoria (Aus) and yesterday NZ are aptly demonstrating that you cant run from this virus. Until we can impart some immunity through a vaccine, there is no "return to normal".

Sad, but true.

I was reading some data about a study that says bandannas and single layer masks (buffs, etc.) are pretty much useless, and may even help break up droplets into smaller particles when you exhale/speak that stay in the air longer, as compared to if you were wearing nothing. The mask I have been wearing in public has a filter underneath the multi-layered fabric, but I have a couple of blue disposable kind too that I keep in the car in case I forget my $$ one. The study is no revelation as far as I am concerned, the results seem totally logical. May need to invest in a couple non-surgical N95 masks again when I see them available if we are gonna be a masked society for a while.

I also don't think I'd trust a Russian vaccine either. I'll stay masked up and wait for another one to become available.

link to the study - https://advances.sciencemag.org/content ... dv.abd3083

[BeauV]

Larry, I agree that we aren't going back to anything like what we used to call "normal" until there is a vaccine. I think the key point is that "herd immunity" is a non-starter unless we really would like to have over 2 million dead Americans.

HB, I read that article, it makes tremendous sense. If you do round up N95 masks, make sure that they are the ones without exhaling vents. That goes for all the respirators also. I use a full-face painting respirator when I'm going someplace "risky", but I've added a filter to the exhale port to keep my droplets from escaping. It's easy to add.

Frankly, a N100 or P100 respirator is a really good solution if you cover the exhale port. Far more comfortable than a paper N95 mask, filters are replaceable, and the rubber bits are trivial to clean with alcohol.

[BeauV]

After much debate, and very little evidence or hard science, it's now becoming clear that COVID-19 can be transmitted through the air and an indoor test had viable viruses surviving 16 away from the source. This also explains why so many people have become ill from one sick person during events like a choir practice.

General news article here.

Scientific pre-review article here.

[BeauV]

Some early but potentially great news about a anti-viral treatment that works on COVID-19. There is a type of immune system protein which exists in llama and camels called a nanobodies. These are tiny proteins that the folks at UCSF Medical have engineered to literally cover up the spikes on a coronavirus which attach to human cells. It still needs to be tested at a large scale, but it's amazingly effective and stable. This is well worth reading.

General article here

Research paper here

[JoeP]

Very interesting research. If it passes trials it will save a lot of lives. I wonder if a similar approach would work with the flu and other viral infections.

[kdh]

Some encouraging thoughts from Bill Gates.

https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2020-bill-gates-covid-vaccine/

[Olaf Hart]

Some early but potentially great news about a anti-viral treatment that works on COVID-19. There is a type of immune system protein which exists in llama and camels called a nanobodies. These are tiny proteins that the folks at UCSF Medical have engineered to literally cover up the spikes on a coronavirus which attach to human cells. It still needs to be tested at a large scale, but it's amazingly effective and stable. This is well worth reading.

General article here

Research paper here

Would be neat if it was possible to incorporate this stuff in masks...

[H B]

Some early but potentially great news about a anti-viral treatment that works on COVID-19. There is a type of immune system protein which exists in llama and camels called a nanobodies. These are tiny proteins that the folks at UCSF Medical have engineered to literally cover up the spikes on a coronavirus which attach to human cells. It still needs to be tested at a large scale, but it's amazingly effective and stable. This is well worth reading.

General article here

Research paper here

wow...that is promising!

[Benno von Humpback]

Hey, can one of you rich guys explain to me what the fuck is going with the equities markets?

[kdh]

Hey, can one of you rich guys explain to me what the fuck is going with the equities markets?

The only truthful answer is who the fuck knows, but my guess is the primary factor is with rates so low there's nowhere else to go for investment returns.

It's also useful to think about the idea that the market being worth more in dollars is equivalent to the dollar being worth less relative to the market. Which is it?

[Olaf Hart]

I may not be rich enough to comment, but my neighbour is.

He is a retired gold trader from Switzerland, he is walking around with a big smile on his face at the moment.

Also mentioned his Gazprom shares are going well......

[BeauV]

Given no one knows why the market is doing what it's doing, here's my GUESS:

The stimulus money is only now really starting to flow, it looks like the political types will be giving more money away soon, interest rates are at about zero and we've been told they will stay there. All of this seems like good news for folks who have plausible ideas for making money. Suppose we're still a year from completing the deployment of a vaccine (that's a guess too). Once people can "get back to normal", they econmy will be swimming in an ocean of "stimulus". A company I work with just re-financed their debt load at an interest rate that is about 1/8th of what they were paying two years ago. You can buy shares of a company that pays a dividend of over 5% with money you borrow for about 2%.

The market seems to be betting that one of the many efforts to coral this virus will work. It may also be betting that ultimately even if a million folks die from COVID in the US, it won't really matter we'll still have 327 million more and they'll be spending money. The market really doesn't care about dead folks.

The tax-cut for the rich had already over-stimulated this economy. The COVID stimulus will just add on to that. We're running the economy on the financial equivalent of viagra.