Conoravirus ...

[TheOffice]

Beau is correct.
We just keep printing money and giving it away. There is no sign of inflation and it is an election year, so the presses keep running.
Some stocks are also benefiting from the sale of fractional shares by Robinhood to millennials. Apple, Tesla and other ‘sexy’ stocks fall into this category.

[Benno von Humpback]

Great and plausible answers, guys. Sounds like time to move some appreciated assets to the charitable trust.

[H B]

At least my 401K is back and passed where it was before the coronacrash. When retirement time comes along, I will definitely find more stable funds to put that $$ into. Right now it is a damn roller coaster..I would not want to be a recent retiree watching all the craziness right now.

[BeauV]

At least my 401K is back to just about where it started before the coronacrash. When retirement time comes along, I will definitely find more stable funds to put that $$ into. Right now it is a damn roller coaster..I would not want to be a recent retiree watching all the craziness right now.

This recent retiree is sitting on almost all cash and a very small number of companies with a massive competitive advantage (EG: Apple which just topped a $2 Trillion market cap). I've been out for quite a while.

The simple fact that I can earn 3X the cost of funds after-tax in just a dividend from a group of extremely stable companies, means that I'm also levered up a fair bit by my standards.

Now that the market is basically at an all-time high, while the general economy is in the shitter, pretty well proves the old saying that: "Wall St. is NOT the economy."

I think that folks who look at Wall St. as the sole indicator of the economic health of the country will be rudely awakened by the barbarians at the gate with lit torches and pitchforks. Since the CovidCrash, the disparity between the rich and poor has accelerated to a rate I've never seen in my life. This won't end well for rich folks who are conspicuous. Even the inconspicuous ones should expect to see legislation targeting their assets as poor folks go out and vote-pissed-off.

Oddly, Donald is just a leading indicator of this. Had Donald been a person "of the people" instead of a rich ass, and had he been competent as a politician and leader of his party, he would have had a trivial job of getting elected by simply asset stripping the absurdly rich. That opportunity is still open to someone who can convince the population that they are getting screwed.

[LarryHoward]

At least my 401K is back to just about where it started before the coronacrash. When retirement time comes along, I will definitely find more stable funds to put that $$ into. Right now it is a damn roller coaster..I would not want to be a recent retiree watching all the craziness right now.

This recent retiree is sitting on almost all cash and a very small number of companies with a massive competitive advantage (EG: Apple which just topped a $2 Trillion market cap). I've been out for quite a while.

The simple fact that I can earn 3X the cost of funds after-tax in just a dividend from a group of extremely stable companies, means that I'm also levered up a fair bit by my standards.

Now that the market is basically at an all-time high, while the general economy is in the shitter, pretty well proves the old saying that: "Wall St. is NOT the economy."

I think that folks who look at Wall St. as the sole indicator of the economic health of the country will be rudely awakened by the barbarians at the gate with lit torches and pitchforks. Since the CovidCrash, the disparity between the rich and poor has accelerated to a rate I've never seen in my life. This won't end well for rich folks who are conspicuous. Even the inconspicuous ones should expect to see legislation targeting their assets as poor folks go out and vote-pissed-off.

Oddly, Donald is just a leading indicator of this. Had Donald been a person "of the people" instead of a rich ass, and had he been competent as a politician and leader of his party, he would have had a trivial job of getting elected by simply asset stripping the absurdly rich. That opportunity is still open to someone who can convince the population that they are getting screwed.

My concern is that the "duopoly" will continue to protect non W-2 high earners with protected and low capital gains taxes, favored exemptions and deductions while those of us who have ordinary income, taxable pensions and mostly taxable SS with no more than the standard deduction will bear the brunt of tax increases, as always. In the meantime, despite teh overall Biden lead in the polls, surveys are showing that Trump leads in 3 areas - Economy, Law and Order and (slightly) in health, ability to get through a term. Uncontrolled riots seemingly driven by Antifa (not BLM) shrugged off by the Democratic Party Leadership are pissing off a lot of moderates who were leaning Biden. QAnon and the rabid right are leveraging those pretty effectively. I'm seeing a lot of facebook traffic with plenty of "likes" pointing out the willingness of the Dem leadership to "let it burn." How that effects the actual vote in November will be interesting but one again, the Dems are running against Trump and not for anything concrete other than kill the rich and give stuff away.

Birthday.jpg

[Olaf Hart]

So is hanging on to non share assets a good idea at the moment?

[BeauV]

So is hanging on to non share assets a good idea at the moment?

Do you mean Bonds? Houses? Boats? Small businesses? What are "non share assets" to you?

[Olaf Hart]

So is hanging on to non share assets a good idea at the moment?

Do you mean Bonds? Houses? Boats? Small businesses? What are "non share assets" to you?

Houses and land at the moment...

Boats are never a good investment...

Seems to me if dollars depreciate due to oversupply, it is a good idea to hang on to assets that are a finite resource ...

[BeauV]

Seems to me if dollars depreciate due to oversupply, it is a good idea to hang on to assets that are a finite resource ...

I've been waiting for dollars to depreciate for decades. I believe we underestimate the power of being the de facto currency for the world.

God help us if we ever lose it!!!

[Charlie]

Post 2008, the money printing by the Fed went largely to those who owned assets. Hence the appreciate (inflation) in things like stocks, real estate in high value areas, art, classic cars,etc. The Fed’s largess never reached the general public, so we didn’t see inflation in the classic consumer sense, e.g. price of milk. Beside assets price, inflation only showed in things that were unable to move to lower production costs or were protected by regulation and quasi-cartels: college tuition, healthcare, pharma.

The recent “Covid Put” by the Fed is a slightly more directed at the general population, with federal and state money going to individual households. That, coupled with mortgage and rent forbearance that places more spending money in the hands of the populace, has the potential to create classic consumer inflation.

It’s hard to see how a few trillion injected by the government over the last 10 months won’t spur inflation somewhere. Real estate and hard assets seem like a good hedge amidst that.

[SemiSalt]

Post 2008, the money printing by the Fed went largely to those who owned assets. Hence the appreciate (inflation) in things like stocks, real estate in high value areas, art, classic cars,etc. The Fed’s largess never reached the general public, so we didn’t see inflation in the classic consumer sense, e.g. price of milk. Beside assets price, inflation only showed in things that were unable to move to lower production costs or were protected by regulation and quasi-cartels: college tuition, healthcare, pharma.

The recent “Covid Put” by the Fed is a slightly more directed at the general population, with federal and state money going to individual households. That, coupled with mortgage and rent forbearance that places more spending money in the hands of the populace, has the potential to create classic consumer inflation.

It’s hard to see how a few trillion injected by the government over the last 10 months won’t spur inflation somewhere. Real estate and hard assets seem like a good hedge amidst that.

Somewhat offset by the high unemployment rate.

[TheOffice]

Towson U is closing campus on the third day of the semester.

[Tim Ford]

Wow...didn't see THAT coming.

The TU President lives up the street two houses away. Haven't seen much of her lately. Head of School or University President...you could not pay me enough.

[TheOffice]

I didn't see it coming on the 3rd day of the semester. Figured they'd get a month or so in. My step-daughter had 4 of her 5 classes on line anyhow.
she is moving from on campus housing to off campus housing.

[H B]

So, are they closing it 3 days in because they started testing the students as soon as they arrived and found out a shit ton of people have it??? Or showing symptoms, or what? Why even bother opening if you are going to close 3 days in.

[TheOffice]

So, are they closing it 3 days in because they started testing the students as soon as they arrived and found out a shit ton of people have it??? Or showing symptoms, or what? Why even bother opening if you are going to close 3 days in.

Needed a clean test to move in. On campus tests starting showing positives within days of the dorms opening, so they shut it down.

[H B]

So, are they closing it 3 days in because they started testing the students as soon as they arrived and found out a shit ton of people have it??? Or showing symptoms, or what? Why even bother opening if you are going to close 3 days in.

Needed a clean test to move in. On campus tests starting showing positives within days of the dorms opening, so they shut it down.

I see....crazy kidz just can't keep their dirty little hands off each other, can they??

[Jamie]

Just in case there were any illusions that COVID was equitable.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cRMpIfA2Ytk

[LarryHoward]

Daughter, her fiance and our son coming into town today to do wedding planning and a "socially distanced" crab feast and BBQ on Sunday to celebrate the engagement and see folks who won't be at the "Wedding Party and Family only" wedding next month. My inside source (local waterman engaged to my receptionist) became symptomatic yesterday and is being COVID tested today so looks like we are going to be buying a bushel on the open market.

Receptionist is now excluded from the office until we can medically clear her and it's probably a good thing I've been out of the office since last Thursday. Even with now 2 close calls in our small local staff of 16, I still have several "I don't see why we have to wear masks" deniers. For them, the answer is easy. "You have to wear a mask or I will send you home without pay."

[BeauV]

Larry,

I really don't understand the no-mask crowd. The science is perfectly clear. I suppose it should be called the "I don't give a damn about you" crowd. I have a very good friend who was just visiting another ski-buddy in Jackson, he reported that only about 20% of those tough cowboys (most of whom have never even sat on a horse) are wearing masks. He and his buddy just hung out at the house and hiked the mountains.

Great fun planning weddings, other than the check-signing bit. We've had a few at our home and it's always wonderful to see folks you care about get hitched. Congrats!!

[LarryHoward]

Beau,

I think that locally it comes from a number of factors. First, with 110K residents in the county nearly 1/2 of our cases came from a single VA retirement center and more than 70% of the deaths. Even with the VA disaster (more the 2/3 of the residents and 1/3 of the staff were infected), The total infections since day 1 make up about 1% of the population, 1/2 of that if you carve out the retirement center. Current case load is very low despite extensive testing. Like a lot of the country, it’s in the 20-39 year old population now and many of those are either asymptomatic or have milder cases. Consequently, we haven’t had a death in 6-8 weeks.

From their viewpoint, they don’t know anyone significantly infected and wearing a mask while doing hands on work is a PITA. They simply are not afraid of the disease. Anecdotally, we are seeing 4-5 traffic deaths a week, so 3-4 times what we have seen from COVID. A local phenomenon but in rural areas, There is a natural social distancing not found in crowded urban areas. People here live in single family houses or townhouses/apartments with separate, exterior entrances.

Our latest cases, as you would expect, come from increased social get togethers. I admit a little nervousness about having folks over for an outside function on Sunday. They are a “touchy, huggy” bunch.

Late breaking, both of my office scares tested negative for COVID but positive for the flu.

[BeauV]

Larry, I guess I get it, but those folks who refuse to wear masks even though the vast majority wear seatbelts.

What I don't get is, how selfish it is. This isn't about some 25 year old's fear or lack of fear of a mild case. It's about that infected 25 year old killing his grandmother 5 years early. But, I don't get anything but hostile stares when it dawns on them that they are being astoundingly selfish. It's sort of like making your grandparents ride in the car without a seatbelt or airbag, while the 25-year-old (and it isn't just 25-year-olds) get all the safety equipment.

For the areas that do contact tracing around here well over 3/4 of the cases are people in the 20-40 bracket bring it home and giving it to their family. (Santa Cruz is pretty good at it because we've only had a relatively small number of cases.) The death are all older people who have caught it from a son/daughter/nephew/niece.

This has been widely publicised in the local papers, but it's not helping much.

BTW - the police have closed all the beaches again. The contact tracing is showing that the locak 20-40 year olds are catching it at the beach parties and many of the sources are tourists from over the hill. Before the closure, the cops just walked around the beach with a phone taking videos. As soon as the CIty Council saw that they closed the beaches. I suppose this drives the locals in to their backyards to party. But at least the tourists know that the beaches are closed.

[Slick470]

A bit of a no mask wearing head head shaker that I should share. We've been trying to figure out what to do with our kids for the past couple months with school starting up again this coming Tuesday. Sarah was talking to one of the other moms in the neighborhood about a month ago about a potential private kindergarten option for our youngest. Sarah noted that they don't seem to be requiring masks and the other mom started saying they don't do anything and that it doesn't matter to her. Sarah, who is actively studying this stuff as part of her job, bit her tongue and asked why this lady didn't think that masks do anything. Her response was that her husband is high up in the federal government and he says they don't do anything, so they don't.

The thing is, you can look up people who work for the federal government and see what it is that they do. Turns out this guy is a political appointee for the dept of energy or something like that and his area of expertise is in fossil fuels. Not exactly an expert in anything healthcare related...

So, either this guy actually believes this stuff and has convinced his family to believe it too, or he's just towing the administration's line. Either way, it's dangerous.

As it works out, the private kindergarten option will be requiring masks, but we're not going to send our kid there. He'll be at home with us and learning remotely along with his sister, and a couple other 8 yo girls whose families we'll be grouping up with. Lord help us... it's going to be a long year.

[BeauV]

Andy,

Because we went cruising for 5 years, my x-wife and I homeschooled our two kids. WIth the COVID lock-down, we've been providing homeschooling to our four grandchildren since the beginning of March. In both cases, it was pretty easy as we were either cruising a boat or now we're retired and working on boats.

I think you'll find that kids are amazingly good a learning with 1:1 attention. Our current school system is only about 20% education and the rest is government-subsidized day-care. In both of the cases above, we've been able to provide the education component in about 2 hours a day. The daycare part has gone pretty well once the kids got used to the idea that we weren't there to entertain them, they had to find fun things to do for themselves. Also, that screen time was limited to one hour per day. Reducing laptops, iPads, and TV to only an hour a day was a shock for the older ones, but after a month they found out they really could read a book, build a fort, dig a hole, ride a bike, climb a tree. You know, all those things that kids did in the 1960s.

I think you'll do fine and the kids will be far more self-reliant and well balanced than they would have been without the time with you. No one loves 'em as you do!

Good luck, let me know if you'd like to learn more.

Beau

[kdh]

Beau, Adele's no-screen Waldorf education has paid huge dividends for us. She's a self-learner, and views her entertainment as not our responsibility. She makes clothes, works with wood, reads. As a 17-year-old she gets plenty of screen time now socializing during the pandemic or listening to music videos. Importantly we have never heard "I'm bored" from her. Ever.

My view from this is that the iPad as a pacifier is a really bad idea. I think it stunts kids' development. Her problem in a traditional high school as a freshman was, as her advisor used to describe, she's an "old soul." Which I take to mean she was mature beyond her years.

This is her father talking, so take this all with a grain of salt.

[SemiSalt]

Our mayor has warned us the they are expecting a spike in cases here based on some folks from Yale monitoring the viral load in wastewater at the sewage treatment plant. New cases have been running at about 5/day and there have been no Covid deaths in the city or 6 or 7 weeks.

And I'd been thinking I might be able to go to the hardware store.

[SemiSalt]

There are two or three parties, or as my wife calls them "superspreader events" on our street. This is not going to go well.

[Benno von Humpback]

Our mayor has warned us the they are expecting a spike in cases here based on some folks from Yale monitoring the viral load in wastewater at the sewage treatment plant. New cases have been running at about 5/day and there have been no Covid deaths in the city or 6 or 7 weeks.

And I'd been thinking I might be able to go to the hardware store.

I don’t know about the hardware store, but I’d stay the hell away from the sewage plant!

[BeauV]

Our mayor has warned us the they are expecting a spike in cases here based on some folks from Yale monitoring the viral load in wastewater at the sewage treatment plant. New cases have been running at about 5/day and there have been no Covid deaths in the city or 6 or 7 weeks.

And I'd been thinking I might be able to go to the hardware store.

I don’t know about the hardware store, but I’d stay the hell away from the sewage plant!

Eric scores!!

[BeauV]

Our mayor has warned us the they are expecting a spike in cases here based on some folks from Yale monitoring the viral load in wastewater at the sewage treatment plant. New cases have been running at about 5/day and there have been no Covid deaths in the city or 6 or 7 weeks.

And I'd been thinking I might be able to go to the hardware store.

Semi, I'm thrilled that folks are using the poop to predict COVID-19. When the first papers about that showed up, I was amazed at the level of accuracy.

Today, our small town tried hard to close the beaches. Some folks put up signs that said "Fight For Freedom" and "It is your beach!" The police moved in and started writing tickets ($500 fine). The herd started to move back to their cars. Our town gets 2X its population in beach-goers who drive over the hill from where it is VERY HOT inland. Our Temp was 85°, inland it was about 115°.

Then, as I drove home from a day of working on MAYAN, I watched a driver simply drive into the side of a car ahead of me. After 20 minutes of yelling, multiple police arrived. One of the officers (a guy I know) said: "Everyone in all the cars involved and all the cars near these two were drunk!" (They tested me, I was three cars back and passed - no drinking on the job) The police hauled all the drunk drivers off to jail. What a crazy time to live in a beach-town.