Conoravirus ...

[Benno von Humpback]

Our mayor has warned us the they are expecting a spike in cases here based on some folks from Yale monitoring the viral load in wastewater at the sewage treatment plant. New cases have been running at about 5/day and there have been no Covid deaths in the city or 6 or 7 weeks.

And I'd been thinking I might be able to go to the hardware store.

Semi, I'm thrilled that folks are using the poop to predict COVID-19. When the first papers about that showed up, I was amazed at the level of accuracy.

Today, our small town tried hard to close the beaches. Some folks put up signs that said "Fight For Freedom" and "It is your beach!" The police moved in and started writing tickets ($500 fine). The herd started to move back to their cars. Our town gets 2X its population in beach-goers who drive over the hill from where it is VERY HOT inland. Our Temp was 85°, inland it was about 115°.

Then, as I drove home from a day of working on MAYAN, I watched a driver simply drive into the side of a car ahead of me. After 20 minutes of yelling, multiple police arrived. One of the officers (a guy I know) said: "Everyone in all the cars involved and all the cars near these two were drunk!" (They tested me, I was three cars back and passed - no drinking on the job) The police hauled all the drunk drivers off to jail. What a crazy time to live in a beach-town.

Wondering about CA more and more these days.

[kimbottles]

Island living is good. It take an effort and a ferry boat to get here.

[BeauV]

Eric,

A massive number of folks, in CA and other places, believe that they have an inalienable right to party.

We saw it over Memorial Day and the 4th of July, we're seeing it now. This idiotic behavior is indulged in by a significant but minority percentage of the population, from observation they are almost all white. The rest of us, we're doing just fine and avoiding getting sick.

CA is a funny place. The home of the John Birch Society. It's the home of Jane Fonda and a mess of movie types who preach far-left ideas. It's the home of Berkeley, and that's a complex stew on its own. It has millions of hard-working Hispanic folks who just want to be left alone. Millions of put-upon rich white folks who want to feel superior. Tens of thousands of Libertarians. Etc...... Suffice it to say: We have some of everything and because we're big we have a lot of everything.

When I was a kid, the state was much more homogeneous. Mostly white folks who didn't know that they were racists because they'd never had to interact with anyone other than other white folks. A hundred years early, our racism was much more explicit and codified into law with the various deed restrictions, the laws against Asians owning property, and a host of other things. But, it all faded in the pink warm glow of the post WW2 50s and 60s. Then in about '67, it started to change. The "colored folks" got "uppity" and burned down a big part of LA in '67. The Hispanic folks got pissed and formed a Union - the arrogance of them - and the United Farm Workers emerged. Then, in response, CA spawned Presidents Nixon and Reagan. Nixon was obviously a crook and a thug - his resignation prior to prosecution showed that. (A lesson Donald hasn't yet figured out) But Reagan was far more destructive. His effects on CA and the US is still felt. A senile actor managed to screw up a hell of a lot.

So, I agree, I too wonder more and more about CA.

But, here's the key question: If CA can't deal with white folks becoming a minority with grace and charm, then how are the other states going to react? Over the next two decades, white folks will become a large minority of the population. They won't be a majority of anything. The way that folks respond to that change will probably determine if the US becomes our own version of S. Africa or something better. The jury is out. Right now, American Aparthide is a painfully high probability.

[Jamie]

I think it's that we are just waking up to the fact that it's always been American Aparthide, by race and class.

I once got pulled over in a DUI dragnet. We were all lined up in front of the police waiting to get breathalyzed. I was pretty sure I wasn't over the limit - but there were a couple behind me that clearly were over - and just as they go to me the police started having trouble with the machine. They couldn't read the error code, so I went over and told them that the plastic tube you were supposed to breath in wasn't being seated properly. And I took the machine, pressed in the tube and the machine worked again. They were very happy and then started testing the people behind me.

[slap]

It reminds me of the quote:

"You always hear Americans say, 'I know my rights,' but you never hear an American say, 'I know my responsibilities and obligations,' "

----- Morris Fiorina

[Olaf Hart]

Our mayor has warned us the they are expecting a spike in cases here based on some folks from Yale monitoring the viral load in wastewater at the sewage treatment plant. New cases have been running at about 5/day and there have been no Covid deaths in the city or 6 or 7 weeks.

And I'd been thinking I might be able to go to the hardware store.

I don’t know about the hardware store, but I’d stay the hell away from the sewage plant!

Eric scores!! [/quote

[Olaf Hart]

Our mayor has warned us the they are expecting a spike in cases here based on some folks from Yale monitoring the viral load in wastewater at the sewage treatment plant. New cases have been running at about 5/day and there have been no Covid deaths in the city or 6 or 7 weeks.

And I'd been thinking I might be able to go to the hardware store.

I don’t know about the hardware store, but I’d stay the hell away from the sewage plant!

Eric scores!!

Wouldn’t it be good if they figured how to test for Moronavirus as well...

I just fielded a query from a school headmistress, parents are complaining about using an infrared temperature sensor on the kids foreheads, something about damaging their pineal glands.....

[Benno von Humpback]

Our mayor has warned us the they are expecting a spike in cases here based on some folks from Yale monitoring the viral load in wastewater at the sewage treatment plant. New cases have been running at about 5/day and there have been no Covid deaths in the city or 6 or 7 weeks.

And I'd been thinking I might be able to go to the hardware store.

I don’t know about the hardware store, but I’d stay the hell away from the sewage plant!

Eric scores!!

Wouldn’t it be good if they figured how to test for Moronavirus as well...

I just fielded a query from a school headmistress, parents are complaining about using an infrared temperature sensor on the kids foreheads, something about damaging their pineal glands.....

Not surprised; it’s the new Dark Age.

[Jamie]

Dark age...interesting. I was think things felt very 3rd century AD. Old systems are broken, but nothing better has come to replace it. Some new and wacky religions are spreading fast.

[Benno von Humpback]

Dark age...interesting. I was think things felt very 3rd century AD. Old systems are broken, but nothing better has come to replace it. Some new and wacky religions are spreading fast.

Exactly.

[BeauV]

Dark age...interesting. I was think things felt very 3rd century AD. Old systems are broken, but nothing better has come to replace it. Some new and wacky religions are spreading fast.

I read a terrific article, perhaps in The Atlantic - the new "Enemy #1" of DJT, which went through a rather long but compelling description of how major plagues have been correlated strongly with significant climate changes. It then went on to describe how the Roman, Astec, and British armies were all badly depleted by the plagues which followed these climate changes. Finally, that massive increase in travel/migration around the globe, frequently in response to or enabled by climate change, was often the transport mechanism for plagues. (EG: The Roman army was at less than 50% strength after the bubonic plague arrived via the Silk Road.)

During each of the events described the chaos caused by the plague resulted in utterly irrational behavior by the survivors. From those who locked themselves in insular villages with walls to the crazy Italians who threw tremendous parties because: "What the hell, we're going to die anyway."

The conclusion is that the combination of climate change, extreme increases in mobility by people who carry diseases, and close contact with animals have combined to make this era the predecessor to an other Dark Age. It's interesting to note that none of this, in the article's opinion, has to do with education, racism, conservative values, etc... Stating what is probably the obvious, the collapse of economies is described as a by-product of other factors and not a cause.

(I've been looking but haven't re-discovered the article.)

[Benno von Humpback]

Dark age...interesting. I was think things felt very 3rd century AD. Old systems are broken, but nothing better has come to replace it. Some new and wacky religions are spreading fast.

I read a terrific article, perhaps in The Atlantic - the new "Enemy #1" of DJT, which went through a rather long but compelling description of how major plagues have been correlated strongly with significant climate changes. It then went on to describe how the Roman, Astec, and British armies were all badly depleted by the plagues which followed these climate changes. Finally, that massive increase in travel/migration around the globe, frequently in response to or enabled by climate change, was often the transport mechanism for plagues. (EG: The Roman army was at less than 50% strength after the bubonic plague arrived via the Silk Road.)

During each of the events described the chaos caused by the plague resulted in utterly irrational behavior by the survivors. From those who locked themselves in insular villages with walls to the crazy Italians who threw tremendous parties because: "What the hell, we're going to die anyway."

The conclusion is that the combination of climate change, extreme increases in mobility by people who carry diseases, and close contact with animals have combined to make this era the predecessor to an other Dark Age. It's interesting to note that none of this, in the article's opinion, has to do with education, racism, conservative values, etc... Stating what is probably the obvious, the collapse of economies is described as a by-product of other factors and not a cause.

(I've been looking but haven't re-discovered the article.)

One of the dumbest and darkest urges surfacing is the yearning for authoritarian government in liberal democracies. It's not going away with Trump and there are many better qualified candidates for the job of American dictator.

[BeauV]

Dark age...interesting. I was think things felt very 3rd century AD. Old systems are broken, but nothing better has come to replace it. Some new and wacky religions are spreading fast.

I read a terrific article, perhaps in The Atlantic - the new "Enemy #1" of DJT, which went through a rather long but compelling description of how major plagues have been correlated strongly with significant climate changes. It then went on to describe how the Roman, Astec, and British armies were all badly depleted by the plagues which followed these climate changes. Finally, that massive increase in travel/migration around the globe, frequently in response to or enabled by climate change, was often the transport mechanism for plagues. (EG: The Roman army was at less than 50% strength after the bubonic plague arrived via the Silk Road.)

During each of the events described the chaos caused by the plague resulted in utterly irrational behavior by the survivors. From those who locked themselves in insular villages with walls to the crazy Italians who threw tremendous parties because: "What the hell, we're going to die anyway."

The conclusion is that the combination of climate change, extreme increases in mobility by people who carry diseases, and close contact with animals have combined to make this era the predecessor to an other Dark Age. It's interesting to note that none of this, in the article's opinion, has to do with education, racism, conservative values, etc... Stating what is probably the obvious, the collapse of economies is described as a by-product of other factors and not a cause.

(I've been looking but haven't re-discovered the article.)

One of the dumbest and darkest urges surfacing is the yearning for authoritarian government in liberal democracies. It's not going away with Trump and there are many better qualified candidates for the job of American dictator.

When threatened, especially when it's viewed as an existential threat to one's culture, humans choose a war-chief. From Pericles to Trump the thread is common and clear. Sadly, a rational selection process isn't going to be involved by an a priori irrational group of folks. The best thing about Pericles and the Ancient Greeks was that if you had been the war-chief, then you were given a choice at the end of the war: Exile from Athens or death. Everyone who signed up for the job, knew that this was the choice they'd be offered. It makes term-limits look kind.

We are in an era when what used to be a strong majority of the population is realizing that they are now only about half of that population. It's painfully obvious from
even an elementary knowledge of demographics that the x-majority will be a minority within a generation or two. Thus, we are in the era of American Apartheid. The soon to be x-majority is using the same tricks S. Africa did to cling to power. As we all know, it won't work over the long term. But, our kids and grandkids are going to have to put up with all the flailing, sobbing, screaming, and ugly behavior as the transition is forced. It won't be forced by the press, cancel culture or any of that nonsense. It is a simple matter of who have more kids. Something that the soon to be x-majority doesn't wish to participate in. Sigh.

[Benno von Humpback]

We’ve certainly come a long way from “The Iraqis will welcome us as liberators!”

[Jamie]

Dark age...interesting. I was think things felt very 3rd century AD. Old systems are broken, but nothing better has come to replace it. Some new and wacky religions are spreading fast.

I read a terrific article, perhaps in The Atlantic - the new "Enemy #1" of DJT, which went through a rather long but compelling description of how major plagues have been correlated strongly with significant climate changes. It then went on to describe how the Roman, Astec, and British armies were all badly depleted by the plagues which followed these climate changes. Finally, that massive increase in travel/migration around the globe, frequently in response to or enabled by climate change, was often the transport mechanism for plagues. (EG: The Roman army was at less than 50% strength after the bubonic plague arrived via the Silk Road.)

During each of the events described the chaos caused by the plague resulted in utterly irrational behavior by the survivors. From those who locked themselves in insular villages with walls to the crazy Italians who threw tremendous parties because: "What the hell, we're going to die anyway."

The conclusion is that the combination of climate change, extreme increases in mobility by people who carry diseases, and close contact with animals have combined to make this era the predecessor to an other Dark Age. It's interesting to note that none of this, in the article's opinion, has to do with education, racism, conservative values, etc... Stating what is probably the obvious, the collapse of economies is described as a by-product of other factors and not a cause.

(I've been looking but haven't re-discovered the article.)

Very interesting. By the archaeology we certainly wouldn't be the first civilization to be done in by plague or climate change. You could argue Syria and all the knock-on effects is a climate driven conflict.

I was thinking about the Romans in the 3rd century - still the best game in town by far - there were places that hadn't known war for over 200yrs due to Pax Romana and you could travel from Iraq to England with the same "passport" and currency. But political competition made it harder and harder to respond effectively to external threats. Sound familiar? At the other end, the Han dynasty also collapsed around the same time.

But it reminds me that history is not always a progressive trend up and to the right. My Great Grandparents moved around the world selling Linotype machines more easily in in 1920 than they did in 1950. If you are bored, he wrote a book about that called Merchant of Alphabets.

[Benno von Humpback]

Very interesting. By the archaeology we certainly wouldn't be the first civilization to be done in my plague or climate change. You could argue Syria and all the knock-on effects is a climate driven conflict.

I was thinking about the Romans in the 3rd century - still the best game in town by far - there were places that hadn't known war for over 200yrs due to Pax Romana and you could travel from Iraq to England with the same "passport" and currency. But political competition made it harder and harder to respond effectively to external threats. Sound familiar? At the other end, the Han dynasty also collapsed around the same time.

But it reminds me that history is not always a progressive trend up and to the right. My Great Grandparents moved around the world selling Linotype machines more easily in in 1920 than they did in 1950. If you are bored, he wrote a book about that called Merchant of Alphabets.

I agree, but would further qualify the statement to say that we would be done in by our response to stress, i.e., "human nature," and not the stress itself. The very sad part is that we have many choices here, but seem to be choosing the wrong ones.

[kimbottles]

From my brother Dr. Kent Bottles

http://ftp.iza.org/dp13670.pdf

The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally created over 200,000 infections at the cost of more than $12 Billion!!

It is very hard to cure stupid.

(Sorry, edit, 12B not 18B)

[Olaf Hart]

From my brother Dr. Kent Bottles

http://ftp.iza.org/dp13670.pdf

The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally created over 200,000 infections at the cost of more than $18 Billion!!

It is very hard to cure stupid.

That’s a really significant paper Kim, particularly like the way it goes well beyond health care to broader economic measures...

Speaking with my Public Health hat on, the more we quantify the overall costs of this mess, the more we will be prepared to spend on population health systems in the future.

[kimbottles]

From my brother Dr. Kent Bottles

http://ftp.iza.org/dp13670.pdf

The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally created over 200,000 infections at the cost of more than $18 Billion!!

It is very hard to cure stupid.

That’s a really significant paper Kim, particularly like the way it goes well beyond health care to broader economic measures...

Speaking with my Public Health hat on, the more we quantify the overall costs of this mess, the more we will be prepared to spend on population health systems in the future.

So true doctor, so true.....

[BeauV]

From my brother Dr. Kent Bottles

http://ftp.iza.org/dp13670.pdf

The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally created over 200,000 infections at the cost of more than $18 Billion!!

It is very hard to cure stupid.

That’s a really significant paper Kim, particularly like the way it goes well beyond health care to broader economic measures...

Speaking with my Public Health hat on, the more we quantify the overall costs of this mess, the more we will be prepared to spend on population health systems in the future.

I completely agree - just noticed Kim did too. Folks aren't broadcasting the costs of these messes! I believe that the paper is only quantifying the direct expenses.

We are currently running at about One Trillion Dollars Per Quarter in spending to try and address this mess. (I could be off by a Trillion either way.)

No one talks about THAT spending. The cost of the "recovery" and "stimulus" needs to be added to the direct medical costs.

[SemiSalt]

After a summer when it appeared that Connecticut had Covid-19 under control, we are now suffering a new phase. If it's necessary to lay blame, I'd say it goes to "opening" and the new college semester. But although the rise in new cases looks a lot like last March and April, the overall picture is very different. Back in March, there was a great shortage of tests, and many people were never tested at all. Now, lots of people are getting tested (with a positivity rate around 2%). As the President likes to say, more tests mean more cases.

We also hear that that more cases are being sent home and fewer, %-wise, are hospitalized.

The death rate is much lower, I'm not sure why. I can think of several contributing reasons. CT, like just about everywhere, had a lot of deaths in nursing homes back at the beginning. Now, those places know what it takes to keep their residents safe, and there may be stepped up state supervision. Also, the docs have learned a thing or two, and have a more tools available.

Note to statistics nerds: The new cases and deaths are tracking one time events. Any person is going to show up once, or since they are moving averages, will show up as 1/7 for each of 7 days. On the other hand, a hospitalized patient is going to be counted for each day he is in the hospital. So, there is a bit of apples/oranges in the graph.

[LarryHoward]

Agree, but some of the numbers don’t reflect “more testing means more cases.“

In Maryland over the last 3 weeks we have gone from 3.4% “positivity rate” and 7.5 cases per 100k population to 4.5% and 17 per 100k. Total hospitalizations are up by about 25%. The real shift is the 21-49 year old are the predominate source of new infections and they tend to have fewer complications and lower deaths.

Keep in mind, total tests are measured daily and infection rates on the day that the test report is ready. Same day for quick tests. 3-5 day delay for PCR tests. That creates a significant data lag that complicates analysis.

I live in Maryland but traveled to NYC on Monday and was tested on the same day My test is a Monday Manhattan number and a Tuesday negative.

[BeauV]

From what I read the Northern Midwest is on fire with cases. It's really sad to see what's going on in both ND and SD.

[Tigger]

Not surprisingly, the cases have gone through the roof here with the loosening up of restrictions (over 500 new cases on Friday). Stupid behaviour (such as huge weddings and big Halloween parties) has not helped. We may need to clamp down again for a month or two, but I hope that enough people get on board the common sense train that we don't have to. I needed a root canal last week--it's the kind of procedure you can't put off, and you are beholden to the general public for your safety while in the office.

[BeauV]

After many many months of an R-naught number of 1.0 or lower, our little Santa Cruz County is up to 1.2. In addition, the new cases this week vs last week are up 123%.

My Admiral and I find ourselves declining more and more invitations to "visit" or "eat together". I know folks are well-meaning, but there is not one single shred of evidence that this virus is any less contagious than it was 4 months ago. I suppose folks are simply becoming numb to the risk.

I did read that the fatality rate has dropped substantially in San Francisco where there are MASSIVE medical resources. UCSF Medical now reports that only 0.3% of their patients die, vs 3-4% when this all started. My friends working in that hospital system report two causes of the 90% drop in fatality rate, and I'd be interested in comments from the medical types on this thread. First, I believe there are far better treatments available than there were in April and May. Second, my understanding is that the disease has penetrated a much broader percentage of the population with respect to age. The early waves were aboard cruise ships and old-folks homes, both areas populated by geezers like me.

A sailing friend, who is also a Doc at UCSF Medical, has recently warned: "Batten down the hatches and close all the ports. The real gale is about to blow in."

Thoughts as we cross 10 million total cases and a new case rate above 130,000 per day?

[Olaf Hart]

I think the USA is in a difficult situation, enforcing lockdowns will drop the Covid death rate, but increase the gun death rate, not to mention the possibility of civil strife.

Probably best to use social pressure to mask up and keep your distance, and try to hold things together until there is a reliable vaccine.

[BeauV]

Not surprisingly, the cases have gone through the roof here with the loosening up of restrictions (over 500 new cases on Friday). Stupid behaviour (such as huge weddings and big Halloween parties) has not helped. We may need to clamp down again for a month or two, but I hope that enough people get on board the common sense train that we don't have to. I needed a root canal last week--it's the kind of procedure you can't put off, and you are beholden to the general public for your safety while in the office.

Ross,

I've been trying to find a better way to communicate with people when discussing the duration of time we'll need to take significant defensive actions. Said another way: "How long it'll be before we can go back to normal."

In the US we've just proven once again that about the time we stabilize the society at a level where the R-naught is below 1.0 and new cases are falling, someone decides it's time to re-open. Within a few weeks, cases soar again. Why? Because we didn't actually accomplish anything by locking down for a week, two weeks, a month, two months, a quarter, two quarters, there.....

It seems that folks just don't think about this rationally. Let me know you think this would work:

- We can't open up our society and therefore the economy until one of the following two things happens:

1) We have completed the development, testing, manufacture, and deployment of an effective vaccine. Meaning well over 70% of the population has received it and it is effective.
or
2) We have completed the the development, test, manufacture, and deployment of an effective treatment. Meaning only a small number of infected people are killed or seriously crippled by the disease.

- Obviously, we haven't accomplished either of the above.
- Therefore, we need to continue to lead our highly restricted lifestyles or suffer the consequences. This includes:

A) Defensive measures: Masks, hand washing, 6'+ distance, staying outdoors.
B) Eliminating social gatherings, especially those that violate item A just above.

The most optimistic estimates are that Pfizer et al get a vaccine into the population starting sometime in the first quarter of 2021, carrying on the most optimistic estimates are that we have vaccinated enough folks to reach herd immunity by mid-summer of 2021.

Therefore, one ought to understand that we will be leading the highly restricted lifestyle for the next 8 months, optimistically. It could easily. be as long as a year.

Do you think we could get folks to understand this and stop trying to go back to "normal too early"?

[JoeP]

Not surprisingly, the cases have gone through the roof here with the loosening up of restrictions (over 500 new cases on Friday). Stupid behaviour (such as huge weddings and big Halloween parties) has not helped. We may need to clamp down again for a month or two, but I hope that enough people get on board the common sense train that we don't have to. I needed a root canal last week--it's the kind of procedure you can't put off, and you are beholden to the general public for your safety while in the office.

Ross,

I've been trying to find a better way to communicate with people when discussing the duration of time we'll need to take significant defensive actions. Said another way: "How long it'll be before we can go back to normal."

In the US we've just proven once again that about the time we stabilize the society at a level where the R-naught is below 1.0 and new cases are falling, someone decides it's time to re-open. Within a few weeks, cases soar again. Why? Because we didn't actually accomplish anything by locking down for a week, two weeks, a month, two months, a quarter, two quarters, there.....

It seems that folks just don't think about this rationally. Let me know you think this would work:

- We can't open up our society and therefore the economy until one of the following two things happens:

1) We have completed the development, testing, manufacture, and deployment of an effective vaccine. Meaning well over 70% of the population has received it and it is effective.
or
2) We have completed the the development, test, manufacture, and deployment of an effective treatment. Meaning only a small number of infected people are killed or seriously crippled by the disease.

- Obviously, we haven't accomplished either of the above.
- Therefore, we need to continue to lead our highly restricted lifestyles or suffer the consequences. This includes:

A) Defensive measures: Masks, hand washing, 6'+ distance, staying outdoors.
B) Eliminating social gatherings, especially those that violate item A just above.

The most optimistic estimates are that Pfizer et al get a vaccine into the population starting sometime in the first quarter of 2021, carrying on the most optimistic estimates are that we have vaccinated enough folks to reach herd immunity by mid-summer of 2021.

Therefore, one ought to understand that we will be leading the highly restricted lifestyle for the next 8 months, optimistically. It could easily. be as long as a year.

Do you think we could get folks to understand this and stop trying to go back to "normal too early"?

Maybe it's because I was raised as a Catholic and had to regularly give up something for Lent each year, but I don't see the difficulty of having to hunker down for a bit more in order to help each other out. It's not a huge sacrifice. We will still be able to be outside and meet our friends, family and neighbors with social distancing and masks. We'll still be able to get take-out and shop for groceries. It's hard tp believe that people today are really so spoiled and self centered that they can't endure a bit of deprivation for the greater good.

[kimbottles]

............. It's hard tp believe that people today are really so spoiled and self centered that they can't endure a bit of deprivation for the greater good.

They have had a role model of self serving these last four years.

[Tigger]

Beau, I wish I knew how! What follows is overly simplified ... but here goes.

Covid is a bit like AIDS (and other diseases) ... you can be infected without knowing it, and you can infect others without knowing it. It is, of course, possible to slow the rate of infection--you 'just' have to be prepared to give up or highly modify activities you previously found pleasurable just the way they were.

In the case of AIDS, taking random people home from the bar is, after a sufficient number of iterations, a death sentence. I think it's safe to say that those behaviours have been modified to a great extent. In the case of Covid, it's interactions with others--friends and strangers--in indoor and other social settings. I don't think that those behaviours have been sufficiently modified yet.

Here's the difference, as I see it--sex is a personal choice--one independent concrete activity--something you do. In the case of Covid, it's something that happens to you in the midst of your 'regular' activities. Of course there is 'assumed risk' going to a social setting without a mask, but I don't think that enough people see it that way, at least yet. I think it's important to remember that we're not asking people to change one thing, we're asking them to change everything, especially the kind of things we all hold near and dear, like having friends for dinner.

So, how to get the great unwashed to see the big picture of having to hang in there, properly social distancing for at least 8 months? It might be worth trying to connect mask wearing et al to some other existing example of accepted behaviour that people can relate to--an example that highlights the notion of responsibilities being more important that rights.

It's not a very good example but perhaps something as simple as linking it to changing your diet when your anaphylactic relative comes for a visit. Yes, you'd rather eat something different, but it's not forever, and you can go back to your regular routine when they leave--and because they are still alive, you will be able to gather again. (Representing the virus as an anaphylactic relative is probably not the best choice. I'm sure someone has relative who they'd just love to slip a prawn to lol) There must be a better allegory ... maybe keeping emergency rooms free of covid patients so that those healthy people who have the misfortune of getting sick/injured in an accident (which could be anyone) can get treatment without having to worry about catching the virus? Because just about everyone has needed medical care--even when you don't remember it (your own birth, for example).

I know that the pain of adaptation is not spread evenly across the population, which breeds cynicism, distrust, anger, and disappointment. My friend has a 3 year old--he can't wrap his head around why he can't go and play at Uncle Ross' house. (His explanation was that Uncle Ross' house smelled. Well, if he visits after the daily coffee miracle he would not be far wrong.)

I'm preaching to the choir here, I know, but we all have to hang in there. We don't know the long term effects of contracting the virus, the effect on unborn babies, etc. Speaking strictly from a personal point of view, we want the health care system to function as normally as possible so that folks who have the misfortune of needing a root canal can get it safely.