Conoravirus ...

[Jamie]

Vaccines are given to healthy and young populations (relatively) so the payout if anything goes wrong is very high (unless they've got an agreement with the gubmint) so the methodology is usually pretty rigorous.

[BeauV]

Larry & Keith,

Thanks for the input. I realize that there are two big holes in the logic - you've both stated them. That's why I rounded up to the worst case in a number of places. Give the numbers shown are all that we have to work with, everything else is just guesswork.

More data is arriving. This just in from China early this AM.

More than three quarters of Wuhan residents who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies had experienced no covid-19 symptoms and just under half developed long lasting neutralising antibodies, show results from the first long term seroprevalence study from the epicentre of the outbreak in China.1

The source is HERE

In my assumptions about non-symptomatic cases I was guessing a lower number of folks that 75%. This data will be great to track, provided the Chinese aren't manipulating the numbers, as we go forward. It could be an early test area for herd immunity.

[BeauV]

Semi,

I just tried to find a paper on the amount of "viral load" that one needs to receive to "catch" COVID-19; I read it a few weeks ago and can't find it now. Obviously, as illustrated by various super-spreader events, if someone is singing loudly or shouting at you they are transmitting a great deal more virus on a per-pound basis than if they are speaking quietly. So being "exposed" has quite a continuum. My simple math model doesn't include a couple of simple facts because it was getting more complex than most folks would read though as it is.

EG: In a grocery store, if you don't stop and talk with someone who could be projecting a significant viral load in your direction if not wearing a mask, you will have a pretty low chance of catching the disease even if there are folks in the store with you who are spreading the virus through the air.

It's pretty clear that the amount of virus being spread is a continuum based on how hard someone exhales, how much virus they have in their system at the time, and what the airflow is around the two of you. Trying to quantify all that is nearly impossible. Because sailors know the advantages of being upwind. I have seen folks at the YC in the parking lot waiting for their to-go meal service steadily trying to position themselves upwind of everyone else. Indeed, one group of 6 folks ended up slowly moving like an amoeba across the parking lot as each individual inched to the upwind side of the circle they were standing it. (I didn't have the heart to suggest that they just stand in a line at 90° to the wind.

[kdh]

Beau, just to reiterate, your basic method of multiplying the 5% efficacy risk by the probability that you get enough exposure to get sick is sound. As Semi points out, the 5% is just the number of people who got sick in the treatment group divided by the number who got sick in the placebo group. So on average 95% of the treatment group who had enough exposure to get sick were protected.

The risk is already small if you're vaccinated and getting smaller as more people do so.

As we've discussed, variants and sampling difficulties complicate things but the basics are encouraging to me.

[Tigger]

Good news about the AstraZeneca vaccine--works better than previously thought. I'll take any good news these days.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/22/busi ... ccine.html

[LarryHoward]

Beau, The number of asymptomatic cases bugs me with our local numbers. 113K residents. 4,000 confirmed cases and about 110 deaths. Pretty average for a rural area and a large percentage of highly educated folks supporting Naval Aviation R,D,T&E. Data shows about 75% symptomatic and 25% asymptomatic. And we don’t see many returning travelers (virtually all without symptoms) test positive. If the actual asymptomatic cases is about 75%, our actual positives are more in the 13K range, or nearly 12% of the population.

[BeauV]

Larry,

I get it. I can’t find consistent and verifiable data on asymptomatic folks. It is all over the map figuratively and literally.

What our medical folks have pointed out is that there may be a large number of folks who have received a small viral dose while in the community, perhaps repeatedly. These folks may never show symptoms, but develop immunity at a low level. They test positive for the antibodies, even though they have never had the disease.

All of this makes determining herd immunity much more difficult.

[BeauV]

Above I stated that we in N. Santa Cruz County have a different demographic vs the S. County. I didn't know the numbers for the county, then this morning the newspaper kindly printed them:

Latino:
- 54.66% of COVID cases
- 33.49% of the county population

Not Latino: (White, Asian, and Black)
- 18.89% of COVID cases
- 65.34% of the county population (no idea why these numbers don't total to 100%)
Like many places in the US, the Latino population is highly concentrated in a few areas. This results in over half the COVID cases being in a very concentrated area.

Looking at these numbers, it's painfully clear that Republicans might not think COVID was a real menace. For the most part, they don't live near those who are catching the disease and may not know any one who has caught it. The "This is a fraud" line matches their personal experience because they don't live near anyone in the hardest hit group.

[Olaf Hart]

Perhaps they could pay more attention to the strong association between Metabolic Syndrome and hospitalisation and death.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7666594/

[Tigger]

Good news here. Ministry of Health has updated the criteria for CEV (Clinically Extremely Vulnerable) to include people who take Methotrexate, which Elizabeth takes to keep Lupus at bay. Once she gets here letter she can book a shot starting on the 29th. The home stretch--time to adhere to the protocols until the finish line is crossed ... for all.

[Ish]

It looks like things are starting to move faster here in BC, with the vaccine rollout ahead of schedule so far. I may be able to book my first shot in a week or ten days.
All that assumes that Europe doesn't clamp down on vaccine exports...which they very well might. Canada's lack of in-country production has really hurt.

[Tigger]

It looks like things are starting to move faster here in BC, with the vaccine rollout ahead of schedule so far. I may be able to book my first shot in a week or ten days.
All that assumes that Europe doesn't clamp down on vaccine exports...which they very well might. Canada's lack of in-country production has really hurt.

From what I read, the EU restrictions target countries that produce vaccines but don't export, ie the UK. Fingers remain crossed.

[Ken Heaton (Salazar)]

Anne & I got our first shots today, the AstraZeneca ( brand name COVISHIELD ) vaccine manufactured by Serum Institute of India. This is the ChAdOx1-S recombinant vaccine developed by AstraZeneca and Oxford University.

We got the shots about 4 hours ago and I don't notice any effects at all yet. We are scheduled for the second shot in a bit less that 4 months. (105 days to be exact).

Only about 7% of Nova Scotian's have had their first shot, about 3% have has both first and second. The pace of vaccinations seems to be picking up. Nova Scotia has bee administering all three approved types, Pfizer BioNtech, Moderna and AstraZeneca.

On the other hand, we have only 25 active cases of Covid in the entire province right now, out if a population of 970,000 people, averaging about 2 to 3 new cases a day, usually travel related. There are no active cases in our county right now.

[SemiSalt]

The number of new cases here in Connecticut hit a minimum 2 or 3 weeks ago, and started back up. This coincides with the Governor "opening up" restaurants, churches, etc. I was at my dermatologists office yesterday (for what was determined to be a "rash". Thanks, Doc. At least he prescribed a cream...) and pandemic issues came up. His though was don't worry about the new case numbers so much because the age profiles of the patients is running to younger folks. Well, hospitalizations are up too, though not as much as new cases.

[Slick470]

Sarah got her first shot today and I'm finally on a list with the county to get a shot. Since I'm in the construction industry, I qualify in group 1c. I didn't expect to get on the list quite this soon.

[Ish]

I got a date for my first shot, 11 days from now. Whoopee.

[BeauV]

Vaccine rates in California are going through the roof. They have started opening up for younger folks. Today two of our kids (mid-30s) and their spouses got their first shots. I'm guessing we'll pass 50% of the population of the state vaccinated in a week or maybe a bit more.

I must say the rate of vaccination is amazing. It's obvious that the vast majority of folks want the vaccine. The few local holdouts are changing their minds when it dawns on them that there are tens of millions of people who've received the vaccine without problems. They are also motivated by the emergence of not only the Brazilian and British variants of COVID here in CA, but also another one from India. It's clear to more and more folks that we have to rid the entire planet of this disease before it mutates out from under the vaccine.

[Jamie]

I got my first last week. There is a huge disparity in bookings between the different regions of Florida.

[LarryHoward]

Our little county has reached 80% first shots for those 65 and above and are now open for anyone over age 16 to sign up for the current week.

Amazing how long it is between shot 1 and shot 2 when you and your loved ones are waiting.

Still seeing a slow rise in cases and hospitalisations as younger folks are the predominate cases these days. Given we have had only 12 deaths (of 122) from an age cohere below age 70, that should be fairly good news. Basically, 90% of deaths in folks above age 70 and 90% of cases from ages below age 70.

[SemiSalt]

Connecticut has done well getting people vaccinated but, even so, only about a quarter of the population has had two shots. Maybe 25-30% more have had one.

Still a long way to go.

[LarryHoward]

Connecticut has done well getting people vaccinated but, even so, only about a quarter of the population has had two shots. Maybe 25-30% more have had one.

Still a long way to go.

Once folks have the first shot, they are in the queue. Only time (3-4 weeks) will fix the second shirt number.

My concern is getting the younger folks to step up and get the shot because, as expected, those most likely to be walking around spreading (and mutating) the virus are those we have intentionally not offered the shot to until now. Fortunately, the numbers would suggest that they are stepping up and getting the shot when its available.

[Steele]

The first shot offers 50-70% protection in about 7-10 days, so the first shot will help reduce transmission. One study in teenagers showed 100% protection with the first shot. I am not sure about that data but it is still hopefull.
Focusing on the young is starting to make more sense as more outbreaks seem to be related to their activities, especially organized sports.
In our state vaccine rates are starting to delineate along political lines. Conservative counties have low vaccination rates despite vaccine administration sites being available with plenty of shots on hand.

[LarryHoward]

The first shot offers 50-70% protection in about 7-10 days, so the first shot will help reduce transmission. One study in teenagers showed 100% protection with the first shot. I am not sure about that data but it is still hopefull.
Focusing on the young is starting to make more sense as more outbreaks seem to be related to their activities, especially organized sports.
In our state vaccine rates are starting to delineate along political lines. Conservative counties have low vaccination rates despite vaccine administration sites being available with plenty of shots on hand.

Our counties vary greatly in population but overall, the more conservative counties are in the middle on rates. Urban counties are still lagging by quite a bit and racially, the numbers are very representative of the demographics at large with some local variance. Our governor is term limited and a couple of county execs with "future plans" are on the attack over the roll out but the reported data doesn't support their publics pronouncements. If anything, we have pushed vaccines out to minority areas pretty strongly and corrected what was an early imbalance. That plus "vax hunters" who are helping technically deficient populations (retired folks who might be able to use email and facebook but struggle with the multitude of different ways to sign up) can get help finding them a shot.

We are now "open for all down to age 16" and the mass sites will take anyone from any county who signs up. Most sites will take "end of the day walk ins" for any unused doses but don't advertise that to avoid being overrun.

[Tigger]

We're dealing with a nasty upsurge in the P1 variant here--easier to get infected and affects younger folks more than previous strains. Demand for vaccines far outstrips availability at this point. About 650,000 or ~20% of the province have received one or two doses so far. Ministry of Health was using its supply of Astra Zeneca to target hotspots in workplaces and other locales, but that is on hold due to ongoing research into younger recipients. It was made available instead for 55-65, and all does on hand were quickly used up. Moderna/Pfizer are the workhorses of the rollout.

So, we stay safe and wait. Elizabeth is composing and teaching via Zoom, and I fuss on the boat. It's never been so clean.

[Olaf Hart]

We are still doing over seventies and chronically ill people, and AZ is the only option, which is a problem.

The whole of Oz has been successful with an eradication strategy, so there is effectively no COVID apart from quarantined overseas arrivals.

The AZ certainly seems to be causing rare instances of Cavernous Sinus Thrombosis in under sixties, particularly women. There is some talk about it being linked to taking the pill, but there have been some male cases as well.

On top of that, our domestic production is warming up and we have relied on European AZ to kick off, around three million doses were held up by the EU as they realised they had messed up their own domestic supply, so the general program has been slow off the ground.

Overall, not a big issue as we don’t have COVID, but still a hiccup in the Vax program. The good news is we should be able to export AZ around the Pacific in a couple of months, but we may need to source a different vaccine for women under 55 and kids...

[Tigger]

And, just like that, shot #1 complete thanks to a tip from a friend re a small pharmacy who still had a few spots open (finders fee will be dinner when its all said and done ).

Astro Zenica ... Geez, you'd think the Ministry of Health could have sourced the vaccine from somewhere on earth, but nooo! (Shoutout to our son-in-law Steve who came up with that little bon mot.)

[H B]

My wife works in "critical infrastructure" in Larry's county (next door to us) so she got her 2nd shot today. I could not find anything really wrong with me to get an earlier appt, but Calvert County Health Dept. called me last week and I got my first shot the next day, so I am due for my 2nd shot on April 21. As of April 6, most of Maryland is now offering the first shot to everyone 16+ as Larry noted above, so I am only one week ahead of the masses. I got the Pfizer last week. I expect the line to be long for my 2nd shot, but the minor league baseball stadium where I got my first shot was pretty efficient. I was busy analyzing which cars were moving in which line...it was really motivated by the '15 minute wait' after the shot..12 to 15 cars in a row at a time, which explains why we moved thru the stadium parking lot at 12-15 cars at a time.

I am ready to be done with this social distancing BS (but I get it).

[Tigger]

Here’s a tip or two for when you get your shot. 1. Drink more water than usual before bed, 2. Wear your warmest PJs AND warm socks, 3. Take an Advil, and 4. Put an extra blanket on the bed. I woke up at 0500 frozen and shivering with my teeth actually chattering. I had stolen ALL the covers and cocooned myself in an effort to warm up. It wasn’t enough! Better now. No headache, just a general malaise with a low grade fever.

About 10 months ago, there was a period of about 2 weeks when my throat was full of mung. Asymptotic? Who knows.

[Panope]

Got the first Moderna jab this afternoon. Waited in line (in car) for about 20 minutes before and the requisite 15 after.

Our county is now open to all adults and has lots of supply. Easy peasy.

Steve

[LarryHoward]

Florida seems to be coming out of the darkness. Kids in Palm beach were able to sign up for a registration notice and get first shots (Pfizer) in less than a week. Despite the national reports, they say the see pretty high mask compliance still going on around them.