Conoravirus ...

[Tim Ford]

Thanks HB and Tigger!

I had not realized the AZ vax was another viral vector jab! I think, from what I've read, that it has about the same efficacy as the Janssen. I'll ask my doc when go in mid-July about the so-called "booster."

Have to confess, both my wife and I have totally thrown caution to the wind when we visited Portland Maine and more specifically, at the post-race party (Northern Bay Regatta) last Saturday. That was a total super-spreader event. Literally shoulder to shoulder with over a hundred mostly strangers.

I feel fine, other than some serious shoulder pain after a killer kayak paddle in wind and waves two days ago. (knocking lightly on the living room coffee table)

[BeauV]

Tim,

I think your odds of contracting something are pretty low if you're fully vaccinated. With the vaccine providing about 95% protection (and possibly 100% against hospitalization and serious disease), and the probability of someone having the disease and slobbering all over you at the event, I think you're well into the multiple 100s:1 odds. Not to say that it won't happen, just that you're risk of hitting a moose on the drive home after a few drinks maybe about the same.

All that said, we still don't go to shoulder-2-shoulder drink-a-thons. After 13 months of nearly complete isolation, we're only now getting used to the idea of being 10' away from someone at a restaurant.

[kdh]

Beau, my daughter is up in N Maine this week. I was going to go but instead I’m waiting at home for my cyborg conversion tomorrow.

Anyway, hitting a moose driving up with my dad was a significant risk.

[Ish]

I got my second shot of Pfizer yesterday. Slightly sore upper arm but that's it so far.

[Ken Heaton (Salazar)]

Nova Scotia went much the same way as British Columbia. Nova Scotia paused the use of AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine as the first dose back on May 12. The decision was based on an abundance of caution due to an observed increase in the rare blood clotting condition linked to this vaccine and because Nova Scotia had enough mRNA vaccine to immunize people according to the vaccine scheduling they were using. Anyone who was scheduled to receive their first dose of AstraZeneca vaccine received an email canceling that appointment and asking them to book a new appointment for either the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine.

By April, Nova Scotian had resumed using AstraZeneca, and anyone who had received their first dose of the AstraZeneca could then get a second dose of the same.

People who received a first dose of AstraZeneca could ( and still can ) schedule a second dose of either the AstraZeneca, Pfizer or Moderna vaccine, but Nova Scotia is recommending Pfizer or Moderna. A recent study shows that a second dose of an mRNA vaccine (Pfizer or Moderna) after a first dose of AstraZeneca results in a better immune response than two doses of AstraZeneca. The province’s recommendation is based on this emerging evidence.

Anne & I got AstraZeneca shots back in late-March, and we both got Pfizer shots on 22 June. A bit of a sore arm, and Anne had a headache for a day. That was about it.

[Olaf Hart]

We have had the two AZ vaccination, still have to home quarantine for bureaucratic reasons..

Our day 2 COVID tests came back negative, no surprise there, next ones on day 12.

It’s just a learning experience, had our first home delivery from the supermarket yesterday, so scrambled eggs for breakfast, yum..

Realised my wife doesn’t have much to do but cook for two weeks, the grocery home deliveries could become a daily habit..

[kimbottles]

We have had the two AZ vaccination, still have to home quarantine for bureaucratic reasons..

Our day 2 COVID tests came back negative, no surprise there, next ones on day 12.

It’s just a learning experience, had our first home delivery from the supermarket yesterday, so scrambled eggs for breakfast, yum..

Realised my wife doesn’t have much to do but cook for two weeks, the grocery home deliveries could become a daily habit..

Tell her to take up pottery……

[Olaf Hart]

We have had the two AZ vaccination, still have to home quarantine for bureaucratic reasons..

Our day 2 COVID tests came back negative, no surprise there, next ones on day 12.

It’s just a learning experience, had our first home delivery from the supermarket yesterday, so scrambled eggs for breakfast, yum..

Realised my wife doesn’t have much to do but cook for two weeks, the grocery home deliveries could become a daily habit..

Tell her to take up pottery……

Unfortunately we have moved all her equipment to the play house, and we aren’t allowed to leave the farm…

I am quite happy she is cooking, not too good for the diet though.

French toast and bacon this morning…

[Ish]

We have had the two AZ vaccination, still have to home quarantine for bureaucratic reasons..

Our day 2 COVID tests came back negative, no surprise there, next ones on day 12.

It’s just a learning experience, had our first home delivery from the supermarket yesterday, so scrambled eggs for breakfast, yum..

Realised my wife doesn’t have much to do but cook for two weeks, the grocery home deliveries could become a daily habit..

Tell her to take up pottery……

Unfortunately we have moved all her equipment to the play house, and we aren’t allowed to leave the farm…

I am quite happy she is cooking, not too good for the diet though.

French toast and bacon this morning…

That's a great diet! Except for the gout and early death part.

[H B]

Olaf,
If they are still requiring quarantine, what is the vax rate over there where you are?

Not too long after I got my 2nd shot (end of April), it was also about when Maryland starting lifting indoor restrictions and quarantine and such for out of state visits, "for fully vaccinated people". What this really meant is all the assholes that are not getting vaccinated (I think MD is just barely over the 70% mark for folks with at least one shot) are still letting this dumb virus spread around, since of course you can't require people to flash a vax card to prove they don't need a mask/quarantine anymore..but the same jerks that won't get the vaccine were never adhering to the quarantine/avoid non-family/no travel stuff anyway. (/rant)

I watched an interesting (if slightly amusing and sometimes grotesque) movie last night about a planned 'culling of the herd', called Kingsman: Secret Service..it is about 7 or 8 years old..I just watched it on FXM where there was obviously some editing, but the storyline seems fully intact as far as I know. The amusing parts often come from Samuel L. Jackson's character in the movie, he is certainly not taking himself seriously in this one.

[Olaf Hart]

I saw that Kingsman movie on a flight to LA years ago, really enjoyed it.

Interesting question about the Oz vac rate, it’s abysmal. A combination of public indifference because we have an elimination strategy, reliance on Astra Zeneca as the main option, we make it here but there is some resistance due to side effects and preference for limited supplies of Pfizer.

So the completed vac rate is 8% and the first dose rate is 25%.

Fortunately, the over sixties were targeted early and rates are much higher there.

Things are improving, more Pfizer is coming, and people are getting the message that coming back to normal is linked to vaccination rates.

[Olaf Hart]

We have been let out of quarantine early, so finally common sense has prevailed.

[kimbottles]

We have been let out of quarantine early, so finally common sense has prevailed.

Excellent

[Tim Ford]

With re: the Janssen booster....certain members of the "extended" family have their undies in a twist about the lack of an immediately available booster (a lot of us got the J&J vax here in Baltimore). And I mean "immediately."

Having attended way too many technology transfer lectures at the Uni., I have tried to explain it thus:

- It's only been 5 months since the J&J vax was first administered
- Phase 4 is a longitudinal study and 5 months is usually considered way too small a sample size to draw inferences, let alone publish a peer-reviewed study
- factoring in time for an initial Phase 4 analysis of efficacy & risk, approval for a J&J booster could come in mid-October, therefore on more or less the same timeline the NIH and CDC are proposing for the two mRNA boosters.

What thinkith thou?

Some of you Scantlingers are in this line of work as far as I know (which ain't much) Is my explanation viable? Too optimistic? Letting J&J off the hook for their paucity of communication about this?

[SemiSalt]

I've taken to getting my weekly Covid update from Dr. Daniel Griffen here: https://youtu.be/gDbT-kvIN-k When asked about booster shots a week or go, he replied "There's no science" but he expects that popular pressure will make it inevitable.

He had an interesting take on the vaccine front. He noted that in 7 months since we started vaccinating, we've gotten pretty close to 70% overall. In comparison, it took 5 years to get to 95% with the Salk polio vaccine.

I'm sure we've all seen the charts showing how the unvaccinated dominate the hospitalizations, but I think the under-reported story is about deaths. Since June 16, our local hospital has recorded 651 new cases and no deaths. Fairfield County, population approx 1 million, has had about 4000 cases and one death.

[Jamie]

Treatment has gotten a lot better. A lot. Still, I bet if you get a severe case, you probably are going to have a lot of ongoing issues like a TB patient.

[BeauV]

I do think that one needs to consider Jamie's comment that treatment is much better.

I also think that one needs to think about the fact that a national or state vax rate says nothing about the percentage of each age group. In our area, older folks and medically disadvantaged folks are at nearly 90% vax rate. While young folks under 12 are nearly zero. The rest of the age groups are somewhere in between.

So, what we're seeing now is a massive run-up in cases in the unvaccinated. Sadly, that is young people and children as well as the idiots who believe vaccines are evil or unnecessary. Fortunately, the young ones seem to have the ability to fight this thing off and there aren't all that many idiots. So we have a low death rate.

However, surviving isn't the goal - living a good life is.

Sadly, an awful lot of COVID-19 survivors are damaged quite badly. So, while they don't turn up on the corpse list, they are the walking wounded of this particular war.

[Steele]

We also need to acknowledge what happens when health care gets overwhelmed. We are losing nurses and other providers to burn out and a lack of respect for their efforts. In our area the issue is not yet hopsital beds, but staff to take care of admitted patients. Elective procedures and associated care is back on hold. The disability and loss of lives apart from covid 19 from delayed or compromised care is real, we have seen it in our own family, and I certainly experienced it in my own practice. It is probably impossible to discern the results of the non covid consequences, combined with the health issues carried by covid survivors, but it must be huge even though the immediate death rate from acute covid 19 is now low.

[Olaf Hart]

Interesting news

https://www.doherty.edu.au/news-events/ ... YMiAeNq5c4

[SemiSalt]

Interesting news

https://www.doherty.edu.au/news-events/ ... YMiAeNq5c4

Farther along in development are antivirals from Pfizer and Mrrck.

https://www.reuters.com/business/health ... 021-09-01/

[BeauV]

These last two links - a little light at the end of the tunnel. Fingers crossed.

[SemiSalt]

Here is recent news from AstraZeneca.
https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-centr ... point.html

Perhaps someone can decipher for me where this falls in the range of preventative and treatments. Is it variety of monoclonal antibody, is it an alternative treatment to monoclonal antibodies, is it a supplement to monoclonal antibodies, or what?

[BeauV]

Interesting news

https://www.doherty.edu.au/news-events/ ... YMiAeNq5c4

I had occasion to run this article by a Sr. sort of Doc in this field at the University of CA San Francisco. He said that there are hordes of folks all working on moving this sort of technology into an animal without destroying the efficacy of the CRISPR or killing the animal. But, he's hopeful that research will come up with an answer over the next 5 years. sigh...

[SemiSalt]

The comments about vaccine protection elsewhere got me thinking about this graph.

I keep track of the Connecticut statistics, in part to gauge the risk of advanced procedures like going into a store to make a purchase. We've been doing pretty well here, but the number of hospitalized patients has gone from 200 to 400 in a couple of weeks. This could be Thanksgiving effect and taper off as the echoes give out, or it could be the start of big surge as our neighbor to the north is having.

The graph is the simple ratio of deaths to new cases. The x-axis is months with 1 = Jan 1, 2021, the beginning of the vaccine era. It doesn't show the effect of the vaccine preventing disease, only the effect on patients that get really sick. The vaxxed and the unvaxxed are intermingled.

[Steele]

Interesting graph Semi. As you know the drop in death rate is infuenced by many factors. The vaccination rate of those most likely to die such as the elderly is much higher than younger folks who tend to survive the illness. The health care system is better at saving the most ill with better understanding of early treatment and tools like antibody infustions and soon anti-viral pills. I suspect the biggest influence is still the vaccine reducing the severity of illness. Sadly your graph does not account for all the deaths from non covid illness that occur because peopple did not have access to care in a stressed system, or delayed seeking care out of fear of the virus. We will probably never know the true extend of the secondary effects of the pandemic.

[BeauV]

Semi, it'd be interesting to test this graph against the vaccination rate for the area, to see if one could tease out which of the many causes Steele cited is having the most effect. A doctor I know claims that about 80% of the improvement in survival of COVID can be linked to much better treatment regimens. But, he can't give me hard data. As Steele says, new anti-viral drugs look extremely encouraging and should start to alter this graph downward in the near term.

One final thought, I don't believe there is any data on the number of damaged people who have survived COVID but continue to suffer from extremely serious long-term side effects of the disease. The same doctor friend thinks that it is about 10%, in his best-considered opinion. If so, we are creating a massive long-term healthcare problem. Perhaps Steele has a few thoughts on this?

[SemiSalt]

Semi, it'd be interesting to test this graph against the vaccination rate for the area, to see if one could tease out which of the many causes Steele cited is having the most effect. A doctor I know claims that about 80% of the improvement in survival of COVID can be linked to much better treatment regimens. But, he can't give me hard data. As Steele says, new anti-viral drugs look extremely encouraging and should start to alter this graph downward in the near term.

One final thought, I don't believe there is any data on the number of damaged people who have survived COVID but continue to suffer from extremely serious long-term side effects of the disease. The same doctor friend thinks that it is about 10%, in his best-considered opinion. If so, we are creating a massive long-term healthcare problem. Perhaps Steele has a few thoughts on this?

I get my best info from Dr Griffen at https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-837/ . He talks about "long covid" every week. This week he reported on a study finding that death from all causes are high in Covid survivors. That means heart attacks and strokes etc.

My graph is really an example of bad data presentation. Vaccines reduce both the numerator (deaths) and the denominator (new cases). Dr Dan thinks the monoclonals, given at the right time, are very effective which might be what your doctor friend is referring to.

[SemiSalt]

Good news. but maybe not as good as I might have hoped.

I've been following the limited amount of news available for AstraZenacas Evusheld. This is a monoclonal antibody product which is advertised to give decent protection against Covid-19 to people with suppressed or compromised immune systems. The FDA announced yesterday that they've given it a EUA. https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-a ... e-exposure Every doc I see in the immediate future is going to hear about this from me.

Unfortunately, there was a red flag with respect to cardiac risk because there were more cardiac events in the test group than the control (on a percentage basis). It's not known yet whether this was a statistical fluke or something to be worried about. From the way they are handling it, I think they believe it's a statistical anomaly, but maybe that's just my rose-colored glasses. I have not been able to turn up the numbers so I can't make even a layman's semi-informed judgement.

For me, the cardiac thing suggests waiting a little while as the more experience is obtained. In the meantime, it about time to try a dose of vaccine, maybe in January, maybe Feb, and see if my immune system has come back to life.

[TheOffice]

Spent last week fighting what I thought was a sinus infection. Last night I lost my sense of smell. Waiting for results of a PCR test. My head is finally starting to clear.
Went to the office and got my laptop. Supposed to snow here tomorrow too.
What a start to 2022!

[Tim Ford]

Good luck Joel. We had something in our household...I had symptoms for over a week. At home test (Abbott) turned out negative, but I have heard it does not do a good job of i.d.ing the Omicron antigen.

Now my wife has it. Same thing, like a mild sinus infection. Both our next-door neighbors tested positive last week, too.

Luckily, for all four of us, our symptoms were pretty darn mild.