Conoravirus ...

[BeauV]

I've had a head cold for about 10 days. Body aches, runny nose, etc... The home test says it's not COVID, but due to poor false-negative statistics, I've tested every three days, all negative. So, I guess I have a cold. The winter of 2020/2021 was the first time I've ever not had a cold. I guess I'm getting sloppy, given the infection pathway is the same for the cold and COVID.

One brother-in-law now has the 'VID, as my kids are calling it, as do five of my sailing friends. My #1 son and his fiancé were here for the holidays and one of her cousins is on a respirator. It's not looking good for the cousin. The cousin was unvaccinated. This Omicron thing is reportedly as contagious as measles.

My reading on the topic seems to indicate that Omicron is much easier on one's lungs than the earlier variant. Perhaps one of our doctors could comment, but it appears that if a highly contagious variant that is much milder appears, it will out-compete the more deadly variants and leave a lot of people behind with infection-generated immunity. That could finally get a large enough percentage of the population immunized, and things might settle down. Could Omicron be that variant?

[H B]

Let's hope, Beau!

[Tigger]

I'm pretty sure that every Scantlinger knows someone infected with Omicron. Most people seem to experience mild symptoms, but a few do get very sick. This thing is really contagious. Public health measures that worked to slow/stop the spread of previous variants won't thwart Omicron, but hopefully they prevent everyone from getting sick all at once. If you have the misfortune to need acute care (appendicitis or whatever) you don't want to find the staff isolating at home!

[Tim Ford]

A guy at my club says a co-worker of his got it a couple weeks ago and is now dead. Not just merely dead, but clearly and sincerely dead. She was 44 and vaccinated with no known compromising health issues prior to infection. So probably prudent to remain vigilant...seems we aren't done yet.

[BeauV]

A guy at my club says a co-worker of his got it a couple weeks ago and is now dead. Not just merely dead, but clearly and sincerely dead. She was 44 and vaccinated with no known compromising health issues prior to infection. So probably prudent to remain vigilant...seems we aren't done yet.

Tim, I have a number of similar stories. Some folks get clobbered by this disease. While Omicron might be a "dominant strain" at the moment, that's no reason to fallaciously assume the converse holds. There are plenty of vicious Delta, Beta, and original COVID cases floating around. I agree, we're not done. Sadly, many of our habits won't work to defend one against Omicron. The starkest example is the definition of what a "mask". It's painfully clear that a gator or any other fabric mask is nearly useless. It will slow down the exhale of droplets but doesn't do much at all for the aerosolized virus. Moreover, it doesn't defend a healthy person against the virus in the air. It takes an N-95 mask to do that, and many of my friends refuse to wear one because it's harder to breathe through. A significant number of those folks (roughly 40%) have become ill while wearing their comfortable cloth maks.

My Admiral and I have stopped eating at indoor restaurants, our Yacht Clubs are closed entirely, no "retail therapy", only meeting non-bubble friends outdoors and wearing an N-95 mask. It's irritating to hunker down again, but probably necessary if one doesn't want to catch the 'VID.

[Steele]

With the information available thus far I would approach most conclusions about Omicron with healthy skeptasism. Please excuse the following; I am a very linear thinker which drives my poor long sufferng wife crazy.

It is very likely as contagious as reported thus far. The numbers from multiple conuntries are too dramatic to be caused by case finding, better testing etc. Indeed the increasing use and reliance on home testing that is never reported to the health departments probably resutls in underreporting compared to prior waves of variants.

The trend toward less deadly illness is hopefull but not for sure. Early data from other countries can be confounded by case finding, immunization and prior infection in the community offering some protection, and differences in age and underlying health conditions. Keep in mind the big increase in Omicron in our country began 2-3 weeks ago and is still heading up. It takes a day or 2 for people to recognize symptoms, aonther day or two to get tested and recieve the results, a few more days to get sick enough to need hospitalization, and 2-4 weeks to die of the illness. Having said that the trends are hopefull that we are looking at a less dangerous strain, but I would not make life decisions based on that.

I am reading some speculation that Omicron could end up being a silver lining since it may offer immunity to those infected with less chance of serious illness. NOBODY realy knows if this is true. Early on it seemed infection offered decent immunity for at least a few months, enough so that recently infected patients were encouraged to hold off on immunization to free up supplies for susceptible individuals. Some studies have indicated that vaccination offers longer immunity than infection, and a more recent study showed that vaccination seemed to offer better protection against variants than infection. This is qualified in that the variants looked at were not as genetically distinct as we are seeing with Omicron.

Of course Omicron is already overwhelming healthcare delivery, at this time more from providers getting sick, quarantining after exposure, and quiting from burn-out. We have not yet seen a huge bump in patient volumes, but as alluded to above that may come in the near future especially given the sheer volume of illness out there. All of this does not account for the disability and death that results from non covid health events that go under-treated because of the lack of resources.

I hope we all luck out on this one and it is much less dangerous and offers some protection. We are in Beau's camp when it comes to all this. Our bubble is shrinking, even take out makes me squeamish, and a new supply of N95s are ordered. It became apparent some family members have started attending church functions, going movies etc. This resulted in the cancelation of all family functions for the holidays and at least the near future.

[Olaf Hart]

https://youtu.be/1avXjzr1xnc

[Tim Ford]

Thanks Steele and Olaf. Good info and slightly cheering, but time will tell, ay wot?

[TheOffice]

My test was positive, but did not specify the variant.
I'm feeling better.

The German health minister said that by Spring, the population would be vaccinated or dead.

[Steele]

Thanks for sharing that link Olaf. It does support some evolving observations about Omicron and makes me a bit more optomistic. The fact that data from basic science is following community observational studies is good news. I am still left with some reservations. If we were playing that old university drinking game in which you had to take a shot every-time he said "I think, perhaps, maybe, or I hope" we would all be comatose. All told it is a good summary and will probably hold up over time as this wave evolves.

I found it particulalary interesting that the majority of colds in the UK are now covid infections. This was the case a year ago here where patients presenting with respiratory symptoms overwhelmingly had covid. Then it was secondary to community measures stopping transmission of influenza and the common cold. In my opinion closing schools made most difference. Now it is seconday to how infectious Omicron is, colds and flu can't keep up.

[BeauV]

Thanks, guys. It is amazingly helpful to have the views of genuine medical pros! Here in Santa Cruz, our beloved elementary school-aged grandchildren have just returned to school. sigh.....

We're fortunately running at about 43 cases per 100k people. San Francisco, however, is now at 107/100k. (All of these numbers are the 14-day trailing average and nearly useless when the slope of the line is nearly vertical.) From reading the data, it appears that population density and cold weather driving folks indoors most highly correlate with the massive spikes we're seeing. I find it interesting that Teton County, WY (Home of Jackson Hole), and Eagle County, CO (Home of Aspen et al) are going nuts. There seems to be little understanding in the population that Apres Ski in a bar is a serious No No.

[Olaf Hart]

For efficiently trying to keep an eye on this mess I find John Campbell is useful for epidemiology, and Daniel Griffin for therapeutics.

[TheOffice]

Good news - my nose works again. And from the NYT it looks like cases may be peaking in some Maryland counties.
Joel

[BeauV]

Bad News: two of our five grandkids are now testing positive for COVID, not showing symptoms at all but the younger of the two is too young to have been vaccinated. Both kids caught this at school. (I've no idea why schools are open.)

More Bad News: 30% of people coming to San Francisco Bay area hospitals are testing positive for COVID even though they are at the hospital for some other reason. Multiple hospitals are operating with below-normal levels of staffing and the degree of "below-normal" is rising steadily. Some of this is caused by folks leaving the profession after two years of taking care of people who (in many cases) weren't willing to take care of themselves. (IE: unvaccinated), but the recent change is caused by a LOT of folks being diagnosed as COVID positive. Finally, in the SF Bay area, the R-naught number for COVID just hit 2.0, up from 0.3 about three months ago.

Fasten your seatbelts - it's going to get ugly out there.

[H B]

Beau, let's hope your theory that Omicron (or a similar future variant) will be the one that has mutated so far it is out of here, is correct. Thanks to the real doctors too. Nice to have opinions in a semi-private forum where we can chat about this (and boats and everything else) like adults.

[Olaf Hart]

Good news on vaccine effectiveness with Delta..

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7101a4.htm

[BeauV]

Well, from late February of 2020 Up to last Monday I had successfully dodged COVID. It got me.

Monday and Tuesday were hell. Late afternoon on Tuesday I got Paxlovid from my doctor and have been pounding it down every 12 hours. It works. The cough that was about 15 seconds of hacking out of every 3 min. on Monday subsided within 5 hours to 10 seconds out of every 20 minutes. By Wednesday afternoon there was no coughing at all. Thursday and Today I've slowly regained strength and the ability to think a little more clearly. The fever is gone as of this afternoon. A big relief.

I am fully vaccinated (Moderna) and have had one booster. (Moderna)

No side effects from the vaccine, booster or the Paxlovid.

I shudder to think where I'd be right now if I'd kept coughing the way I was on Monday and Tuesday. Probably in a hospital someplace. Thank heavens for medical science!

[Charlie]

Beau,

Glad you’re feeling better and on the recovery path.

Charlie

[Benno von Humpback]

Hope it all goes away soon without a trace, Beau.

We have been spared, but only because we have no life to speak. I’ll be masked indoors and avoiding crowds on both ends of Newport-Bermuda too. Too old for this shit.

[TheOffice]

Beau,

Glad you are doing better!

One of my kids also got it 3000 miles from you in Manhattan. She’s also doing better.

[Jamie]

Down here in Florida, I'm feeling like a fugitive from the law of averages. Can't wait to fly with no masks.

Stay healthy...if you can.

[Benno von Humpback]

The acute illness doesn’t scare me nearly as much as the unknown period, possibly years, of elevated clotting risk after the damn thing!

[BeauV]

Eric, my Dr. friends tell me that the incidence of "long COVID" is much higher in folks with severe co-morbidities. But you're the Doc, not me. I do agree, that being crippled for life is much much worse. I have one friend who has been suffering for over 10 months with little improvement.

[TheOffice]

We skipped an A2B skippers happy hour yesterday in part due to covid. Figured one infected skipper could knock out half the fleet this close to the race.

[BeauV]

We skipped an A2B skippers happy hour yesterday in part due to covid. Figured one infected skipper could knock out half the fleet this close to the race.

Given what has just happened to me I'll be wearing my N-95 mask indoors for the foreseeable future. I have a black one to match my Tux - so I have that workin' for me.

[Benno von Humpback]

Eric, my Dr. friends tell me that the incidence of "long COVID" is much higher in folks with severe co-morbidities. But you're the Doc, not me. I do agree, that being crippled for life is much much worse. I have one friend who has been suffering for over 10 months with little improvement.

This happens in people, with or without risk factors, who recover completely.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00403-0

https://www.bmj.com/company/newsroom/st ... -covid-19/

[BeauV]

Eric, my Dr. friends tell me that the incidence of "long COVID" is much higher in folks with severe co-morbidities. But you're the Doc, not me. I do agree, that being crippled for life is much much worse. I have one friend who has been suffering for over 10 months with little improvement.

This happens in people, with or without risk factors, who recover completely.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00403-0

https://www.bmj.com/company/newsroom/st ... -covid-19/

Sigh.... yes, I even have a friend who has been suffering cardio problems from a COVID case back in 2021.

[H B]

Beau, We had managed to avoid it too, until a few weeks ago. My wife goes into work a couple days a week, and her 'office mate' brought it back from wherever they went...and they were yapping away all day on a Tuesday in the office about her trip, before she showed symptoms. Six days later Laura (Monday) started feeling blech, and as soon as we had access to and results from some rapid tests (Tuesday & she also did a PCR test as per work reqs), I moved downstairs, but it was too late, (we'd already spent the weekend together) and Saturday (now 11 days from first exposure), I was down. We are both Pfizer vaxxed and boosted, and were planning our next booster right after we have completed our shingles vax regimen. No side effects from any of the vaxxes...As for the actual Covid, Laura had a cough for several days, sore throat, and slept a lot. I was actually pretty short on the sick list..no fever, and it felt like a several day allergy attack, but I was still up and moving..and fortunately, working from home. PND with accompanying sore throat and clogged sinuses..it was still pretty miserable for 4 or 5 days, and with both of us getting it in succession, we were basically quarantined for 3+ weeks (I know we missed 3 Wednesday nights!)

I don't want to imagine what it would have been like without the vax, except we know it can be a lot worse..it killed Laura's father in March 2021...he was already very sick, but was hanging in there 'til pre-vaccine Covid finished him off. This all makes perfect sense after reading your links, and given he had COPD from decades of smoking, and also was also diagnosed with congestive heart failure. He didn't have a chance.

Anyway, glad you are feeling better. Guess I need to check in with people smarter than me and figure out when I should get another booster..I personally expect the Covid 'vax' to turn into an annual (or maybe bi-annual) thing like the flu shot...which as long as they keep them convenient to get at a local pharmacy, I am just fine with.

The kicker to society not being able to lick this thing is being contagious before you show symptoms..it is too easy to pass it around, which is we are pretty sure how my wife got it from her co-worker..the co-worker went down a couple days after their chat...already too late to avoid it.

[BeauV]

HB - I'm really glad you had a "mild" case. As much as my case scared me, it was "mild" compared to many. My remaining symptoms (PND and low O2 numbers) are steadily improving.

I remain thankful that COVID isn't nearly as contagious as Measles (R-naught=16-18) or Pertussis (15-17). But, it's working hard and climbing the leader board. Our local County has just topped 41 cases/100k people, and that number is VASTLY under-reported. It is probably 3-4 times that. As always, hospitalizations are following by a week or so and deaths by about 30 days.

I do wonder how much of the general impression of "Omicron isn't as bad as Delta was" is caused by better drugs (EG: Paxlovid) and other superior care techniques our medical professionals have developed over the last two years.

[TheOffice]

FWIW, Johns Hopkins just raised their protection level to limit visitors in all medical offices and hospitals.

I've got 10 days until A2B. Going back into my shell!

Glad everyone is on the mend!

Joel