Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

[kdh]

But again, the problem is this: A successful car business is based on selling cars for more than the cost of building them.

This is why you earn the big bucks Keith. I was never very good with higher level concepts like this...

It amazes me how often people don't appreciate the basics of business. There's not much to it.

Math, for example, is much harder.

[kimbottles]

But again, the problem is this: A successful car business is based on selling cars for more than the cost of building them.

This is why you earn the big bucks Keith. I was never very good with higher level concepts like this...

It amazes me how often people don't appreciate the basics of business. There's not much to it.

Math, for example, is much harder.

I hear you Keith,

I have had several interactions with friends who thought they wanted to be in business who did not understand the simplest concepts; like cash is king, your employees and customers are much more important than you are, you can’t make payroll with promises, business has to make economic sense, etc. Pretty simple stuff.

I have managed to help several friends improve their “business sense”; I have failed to help several others. Some people are wired to “get it”, some are not.

[TheOffice]

From CNBC:
Tesla: First quarter production up 40% from Q4 Tesla: First quarter production up 40% from Q4
1 Hour Ago | 03:44
Tesla shares briefly jumped almost 7 percent Tuesday morning, despite the fact that the company fell short of its goal of producing 2,500 Model 3 sedans a week.

The company also said it will not require an equity or debt raise this year, apart from standard credit lines.

[Ajax]

But again, the problem is this: A successful car business is based on selling cars for more than the cost of building them.

This is why you earn the big bucks Keith. I was never very good with higher level concepts like this...

It amazes me how often people don't appreciate the basics of business. There's not much to it.

Math, for example, is much harder.

I appreciate it. That's why I'm not in business for myself. I know I wouldn't survive.

[LarryHoward]

But again, the problem is this: A successful car business is based on selling cars for more than the cost of building them.

This is why you earn the big bucks Keith. I was never very good with higher level concepts like this...

It amazes me how often people don't appreciate the basics of business. There's not much to it.

Math, for example, is much harder.

I hear you Keith,

I have had several interactions with friends who thought they wanted to be in business who did not understand the simplest concepts; like cash is king, your employees and customers are much more important than you are, you can’t make payroll with promises, business has to make economic sense, etc. Pretty simple stuff.

I have managed to help several friends improve their “business sense”; I have failed to help several others. Some people are wired to “get it”, some are not.

I’d add that you and your managers must understand what business you are in. Generally, it’s what customers pay you to deliver.

[Olaf Hart]

It also helps to understand the business you are in, don’t start me on generic managers in health care...

[BeauV]

+1 on Keith’s last statement.

We have no idea if Tesla can become profitable. But, we know it can’t if it doesn’t get to Porsche level scale and stays put in the luxury market.

[kdh]

I think we're in interesting times.

Technology companies have mostly competed with themselves. With Tesla we have a company competing in a highly competitive, capital intensive, traditional space. Manufacturing of all things!

Some similarities to Amazon but they were able to take the capital-intensive out of the equation in retail by replacing bricks and mortar with deliveries and online showrooms.

[kimbottles]

But again, the problem is this: A successful car business is based on selling cars for more than the cost of building them.

This is why you earn the big bucks Keith. I was never very good with higher level concepts like this...

It amazes me how often people don't appreciate the basics of business. There's not much to it.

Math, for example, is much harder.

I hear you Keith,

I have had several interactions with friends who thought they wanted to be in business who did not understand the simplest concepts; like cash is king, your employees and customers are much more important than you are, you can’t make payroll with promises, business has to make economic sense, etc. Pretty simple stuff.

I have managed to help several friends improve their “business sense”; I have failed to help several others. Some people are wired to “get it”, some are not.

I’d add that you and your managers must understand what business you are in. Generally, it’s what customers pay you to deliver.

Good one! I once helped a friend who thought he was in one business until I redid his financial statements and showed him he was in a different business. He shifted gears and did MUCH better by focusing on his ACTUAL business instead of his fantasy business. (One of my better results in pro bono business consulting.)

[BeauV]

There is a reasonable piece on Tesla HERE

[Ish]

Tesla just announced they are suspending production of the Model 3 to figure out a better way of building it. "Too many robots, not enough people." was Elon Musk's comment.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/thenational/the-national-today-newsletter-hague-pot-yemen-un-tesla-1.4621265

[BeauV]

Tesla just announced they are suspending production of the Model 3 to figure out a better way of building it. "Too many robots, not enough people." was Elon Musk's comment.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/thenational/the-national-today-newsletter-hague-pot-yemen-un-tesla-1.4621265

Yup, makes a lot of sense. I don't think there are many folks who've gone through massive manufacturing ramps. It's an UGLY UGLY process. Pausing to figure out what the hell is going on is often the right answer, and I'm not trying to unduly support Elon here - I just went through this myself a few times.

In the disk drive business we went from 200/month to 5,000/month in three months and retained control of what was going on. Then we went from 5,000 to 40,000/month and things got a little wobbly. Then to 150,000/month and folks got worried. Then to 1,200,000/month and the wheels fell off.

Errors that were minor anomalies at 150,000/month because SERIOUS ISSUES at over a million/month.

In the computer server market we went from hundreds to thousands to tens-of-thousands in three quarters. The same thing happened.

We all knew that a certain percentage of the product wouldn't work right. At a few thousand it was a small number that could be dealt with ad hoc. But at a million the "ad hoc" because a tidal wave. What that meant was that the "certain percentage" had to be REALLY small to avoid chaos.

In related news, Southwest Airlines had a problem and we finally had a fatality in the US on a commercial airline. If I got it right, it was the first one in 9 years. Now, THAT is how one drives quality. The Computer and Auto industry could learn a lot from commercial airlines - if we didn't care what it cost.

[LarryHoward]

Well, Beau. We know you are an Elon fan

The shutdown is the right thing to do and I expect there are reasonably well thought out changes based on known quality escapes and production bottlenecks. As you point out, it’s part of ramping production so I rate this as a “good for them” event. It takes a bit of courage to give up a week or two’s production in the face of a lot of negative press but they need this. I expect they will make it up in 2 months or less if they get the right changes in place.

Of course, now Elon is saying ramp to 6,000 rather than 5. Guy just can’t help himself.

As to airlines and commercial aircraft? Lots of cost sensitivity but not about safety. There is a lot of pressure to get costs of manufacturing down but it’s seat mile cost and power by the hour that drive operating costs. The airplanes and engines are often sold at a loss as part of a life cycle deal. Most new airliners don’t reach break even for 10-12 years. Boeing and Airbus effectively bet a significant share of the company assets on a new airplane.

On safety, it’s all about failure modes and effects. As I told my wife last night, an uncontained fan disk failure (potentially the cause) is probably a one in a million engine cycle event or less. Having the debris strike that window (as opposed to piercing aircraft skin) in such a manner as to cause it to blow out is probably one in one hundred thousand, given the one in a million event preceding it. Folks forget just how many commercial flights operate each day. Southwest operates about 4,000/day probably averaging 120 passengers/flight.

Commercial aviation safety is a huge success story.

[kdh]

Tesla just announced they are suspending production of the Model 3 to figure out a better way of building it. "Too many robots, not enough people." was Elon Musk's comment.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/thenational/the-national-today-newsletter-hague-pot-yemen-un-tesla-1.4621265

Yup, makes a lot of sense. I don't think there are many folks who've gone through massive manufacturing ramps. It's an UGLY UGLY process. Pausing to figure out what the hell is going on is often the right answer, and I'm not trying to unduly support Elon here - I just went through this myself a few times.

To be my usual cynical self about Tesla, Musk has exposed plainly the hand he's really playing:

Can Tesla manufacture cars more efficiently than the established builders?

If not the business is not viable. The great hope was that increased automation would increase efficiency but now he's admitted he went too far. New businesses don't get to make many mistakes. The SolarCity blunder and this don't bode well.

[BeauV]

I have to say I'm no expert in auto manufacturing. However, one thing to consider is that Tesla has a vastly simpler car to manufacture than the major manufacturers. It has less than 1/10th the number of moving parts. Also, much of the car is software configurable, which can make it complex but in an entirely different way than typical manufacturing. I think that comparing Tesla to someone like GM is a serious logical error. Comparing them to BMW and Porsche is probably more the right scale. No one expects Porsche to build cars as efficiently as Toyota, and they don't. Neither will Tesla. Frankly, I really don't understand the expectation that somehow Tesla is magically supposed to compete with the largest car companies in the world when that is not their stated goal nor the products they've introduced.

But, it does make from more dramatic press and the Market Cap certainly is right up there.

It'll be interesting to see how all this plays out. I'm reminded of the classic Hype-Cycle graph. Tesla has clearly gone over the irrational first bump and is now in the equally irrational Trough of Disillusionment. It remains to be seen if they crash and burn or come out the other side. Obviously, I believe that all the folks piling on now while they are in the Trough of Disillusionment are wrong, but only time will tell.

This is really one of my all time favorite graphs:

[Jamie]

Car mfg is hard and expensive; that's why there are so few companies globally that do it at all and fewer that are truly successful despite a lot of private and government funded attempts.

I sincerely hope that Tesla is successful because the concept of what he is trying to do is pretty cool, as are the products. I really like the idea of a underdog outsider revolutionizing an industry with new ideas, but the odds are against him.

[LarryHoward]

I have to say I'm no expert in auto manufacturing. However, one thing to consider is that Tesla has a vastly simpler car to manufacture than the major manufacturers. It has less than 1/10th the number of moving parts. Also, much of the car is software configurable, which can make it complex but in an entirely different way than typical manufacturing. I think that comparing Tesla to someone like GM is a serious logical error. Comparing them to BMW and Porsche is probably more the right scale. No one expects Porsche to build cars as efficiently as Toyota, and they don't. Neither will Tesla. Frankly, I really don't understand the expectation that somehow Tesla is magically supposed to compete with the largest car companies in the world when that is not their stated goal nor the products they've introduced.

But, it does make from more dramatic press and the Market Cap certainly is right up there.

It'll be interesting to see how all this plays out. I'm reminded of the classic Hype-Cycle graph. Tesla has clearly gone over the irrational first bump and is now in the equally irrational Trough of Disillusionment. It remains to be seen if they crash and burn or come out the other side. Obviously, I believe that all the folks piling on now while they are in the Trough of Disillusionment are wrong, but only time will tell.

This is really one of my all time favorite graphs:

Beau,

Couple of things.

Musk keeps saying the Model 3 is their “mass market” entry and the Model Y is supposed to follow in the same vein with similar production targets. Is Tesla who Musk says they want to be (and where they need to go to pay his new compensation plan) or are they the niche player you describe?

Conventional cars may have 10 times the moving parts but they come from mature and efficient supply chains and vendors, not from an associated company inventing stuff daily.

Fancy cars may be the most profitable but sales volume from the more pedestrian ones generates a pretty solid revenue stream that keeps the wolves from the door.

How long will Elon sleep in the conference room?

[kdh]

Electric cars are not like personal computers or smartphones. It's hard to associate a "technology trigger" with something that was around in the 1800s.

Connect the car to the internet? Not exactly a novel idea.

And for all the Musk hype about automated driving, the recent accident strongly suggests the car was just following the white line on the left side of the vehicle, which led the car into the lane divider.

[BeauV]

Larry,

I think most folks would consider BMW and Porsche successful companies. Tesla can easily get to that size, and maybe now for all I know. Yes, Elon says lots of stuff - so did Henry Ford. I find it really difficult to argue that the guy who has been wildly successful in places as diverse as financial services and rockets should be ignored this time at bat, but mileage may vary. After all, we are just arm-chair critics here.

Building any mechanical device with 1/10th the parts (by the way it's more like 1/20th) is a massive advantage and early reliability numbers on the longevity of the Model S are proving that out. There are now dozens (maybe 100s) of Teslas in service as Limos because they are substantially cheaper to operate. Our personal Model S has just about 40,000 miles on it and has been to the shop only because rats ate through some hoses and wires. Our 560 SEL had been to the shop 4 times (twice major problems) by this point, our BMW 740i had been to the shop 5 times (once major) by this point. There is quite literally no comparison between the reliability of the three cars. They are the same price range, and the Model S is just a much better car.

If I had to choose between owning Ford or owning Porsche, I know which one I'd buy. Similarly, if I had to choose between owning Apple and owning Dell, I know which one I'd buy. Being a low-margin mass market provider is a terrible market position to own. How'd that work out for Compaq? Where would GM etc... be without repeated government bail outs and subsidies.

I agree that getting a car company started is one of the most difficult things anyone can try. But it is really amazing that Elon has made it this far. Will he end up as big as GM? Who knows. Look what GM had to go through to get there and how long it took. But his little car/battery/roof company is already worth a bundle to someone even if he had to sell it.

Simply put, they currently build the best luxury sedan and quite close to the best luxury SUV in the market. Early reports on the Model 3 (and my own opinion) say that it's the best mid-size sport sedan on the market (clobbering BMW yet again).


Keith,

You missed the real technology innovation. It's the software and electronics that control the batteries. There is no one in the auto industry who is even close to as good and charge-rate is a major key to customer satisfaction. Saying that electric cars have been around since before 1900 is true and is about like saying that your Ferrari engine is just the same technology as the internal combustion engines of 1900 - it's a big mistake.

As to the self-driving car nonsense. First, Tesla has NEVER said that it's cars are self driving now, it has said they will be in the future. Second, when we hear of a sailor setting his autopilot and running his boat into an island (as those idiots in San Diego did) our response is NOT: "Gee the autopilot didn't work right." Nope, there were hours of testimony to how stupid the sailors were that they would hit an island while on autopilot. It is as absurd to blame the car for that idiot who ran into the wall as it would be to blame your anti-lock brakes on your Ferrari for not saving your butt when you go into a corner at four times the appropriate speed or if you were to leave the cruise control on and hit the back of a truck. It's an "autopilot" just like the one in a plane or a boat. It is not, and has never claimed to be, a self-driving car at this stage. (Something that the dash board says to the driver every time the autopilot is engaged.)

Having driven well over 30,000 miles using a Tesla autopilot, I can assure you all that it is MUCH safer to be on autopilot than it is to ride with many of my friends and VASTLY safer than riding with someone who is any of: On the phone, texting, has been drinking, arguing with their kids, etc.... I think you'll find that my impression is born out by the actually accident data. But then it's obvious that none of this makes for dramatic headlines.

[LarryHoward]

Larry,

I think most folks would consider BMW and Porsche successful companies. Tesla can easily get to that size, and maybe now for all I know. Yes, Elon says lots of stuff - so did Henry Ford. I find it really difficult to argue that the guy who has been wildly successful in places as diverse as financial services and rockets should be ignored this time at bat, but mileage may vary. After all, we are just arm-chair critics here.

Building any mechanical device with 1/10th the parts (by the way it's more like 1/20th) is a massive advantage and early reliability numbers on the longevity of the Model S are proving that out. There are now dozens (maybe 100s) of Teslas in service as Limos because they are substantially cheaper to operate. Our personal Model S has just about 40,000 miles on it and has been to the shop only because rats ate through some hoses and wires. Our 560 SEL had been to the shop 4 times (twice major problems) by this point, our BMW 740i had been to the shop 5 times (once major) by this point. There is quite literally no comparison between the reliability of the three cars. They are the same price range, and the Model S is just a much better car.

If I had to choose between owning Ford or owning Porsche, I know which one I'd buy. Similarly, if I had to choose between owning Apple and owning Dell, I know which one I'd buy. Being a low-margin mass market provider is a terrible market position to own. How'd that work out for Compaq? Where would GM etc... be without repeated government bail outs and subsidies.

I agree that getting a car company started is one of the most difficult things anyone can try. But it is really amazing that Elon has made it this far. Will he end up as big as GM? Who knows. Look what GM had to go through to get there and how long it took. But his little car/battery/roof company is already worth a bundle to someone even if he had to sell it.

Simply put, they currently build the best luxury sedan and quite close to the best luxury SUV in the market. Early reports on the Model 3 (and my own opinion) say that it's the best mid-size sport sedan on the market (clobbering BMW yet again).


Keith,

You missed the real technology innovation. It's the software and electronics that control the batteries. There is no one in the auto industry who is even close to as good and charge-rate is a major key to customer satisfaction. Saying that electric cars have been around since before 1900 is true and is about like saying that your Ferrari engine is just the same technology as the internal combustion engines of 1900 - it's a big mistake.

As to the self-driving car nonsense. First, Tesla has NEVER said that it's cars are self driving now, it has said they will be in the future. Second, when we hear of a sailor setting his autopilot and running his boat into an island (as those idiots in San Diego did) our response is NOT: "Gee the autopilot didn't work right." Nope, there were hours of testimony to how stupid the sailors were that they would hit an island while on autopilot. It is as absurd to blame the car for that idiot who ran into the wall as it would be to blame your anti-lock brakes on your Ferrari for not saving your butt when you go into a corner at four times the appropriate speed or if you were to leave the cruise control on and hit the back of a truck. It's an "autopilot" just like the one in a plane or a boat. It is not, and has never claimed to be, a self-driving car at this stage. (Something that the dash board says to the driver every time the autopilot is engaged.)

Having driven well over 30,000 miles using a Tesla autopilot, I can assure you all that it is MUCH safer to be on autopilot than it is to ride with many of my friends and VASTLY safer than riding with someone who is any of: On the phone, texting, has been drinking, arguing with their kids, etc.... I think you'll find that my impression is born out by the actually accident data. But then it's obvious that none of this makes for dramatic headlines.

Beau.

Tesla has built roughly 300K in all years.

BMW built 2.1M cars in 2017 and has a global production, sales and support infrastructure.

Porsche AG builds about 250K Porsche branded cars annually and never speaks of being or becoming a “mass market” supplier. The 12 brands that make up Porsche SE holdings end up approaching 15M cars annually and absolutely cover the entire market. Those 12 brands do a marvelous job of cushioning any market shocks from AG.

I’d say BMW and Porsche are very successful and P-AG successful in their established and well branded niche luxury GT and quality other vehicles.

All I ask is the Elon describe his “company to be” and be measured by his progress toward that. Keep making speeches about building for the mass market and he should expect questions about that. He has done extremely well exploiting government subsidies in solar, EV’s and space.

Again. I hope he succeeds. For my purposes, the shingles haven’t delivered from a cost or availability standpoint, even with subsidies. The cars are tech marvels and market leaders still very much in low production. Leaders make easy targets.

[BeauV]

Larry,

We agree on all those Porsche and BMW numbers, with on exception. Porsche wasn't part of VW/Audi until the previous CEO of Porsche got all uppity and tried to take over VW. That pissed of the family which controls both companies so they tossed him out and put all the companies together. Yes, that now could cushion Porsche against shocks, in theory. But then VW ends up providing the shock with all the lying about their Diesel engine emissions. Porsche would have been far safer without VW squished into it over the past few years.

As to Elon not accurately saying what the company is doing. I agree. While that might bother investors and those of us who desire logical consistency, the buyers of the cars don't seem to care at all. Personally, it bothers me because I don't like bullshit and Elon has been a bullshitter for a long long time. But, despite all he bullshit, he has still done what almost no other person has in both rockets and cars. I guess I'm willing to cut him some slack for what he's actually done, despite all the bullshit.

Just for fun, guess who many cars BMW had built when it was only 10 years old? I know, it's not really relevant because Elon has access to capital that BMW never had... but it's still fun to consider. If memory serves, they built about 1,000 cars over their first decade. But, back then, times were different.

[Olaf Hart]

BMW’s tenth year would have been 1926 Beau..

So, I was outside this morning doing some shade tree mechanics on our son’s old car, looked up saw the whole Targa Tasmania field running past the house.

The hill roads here are used as stages and they were moving from one stage to the next.

Many of the cars were classics, I counted over a dozen Mini Cooper S in convoy.

Looked down and realised I was holding the same tools I used to work on my one fifty years ago...

Then counted up my old cars, I had owned at least six of those classics at one time or another, depending on how many Porsche’s I included and if a 1602 BMW counts as an extra to a 2002.

So, this is my long winded way of saying it does not matter how good Tesla is, it is never going to be as good as a classic BMW...

[BeauV]

OH, I adored the 2002 tii I used to drive for a friend. Great little car until the Datsun 510 coupe showed up and gave it a run. The original Mini Cooper S with extra wide tires and the interior removed was about as much fun as you could have on 4 wheels on an autocross track! So was my Morgan until it got ridiculously hard to keep it running in top form.

I'm pretty sure that in 50 or 60 years folks will feel the same way about Tesla, they already do feel like that about that silly roadster they built. Whenever someone builds a car that really blows your hair back, it gets remembered and taken care of. My son still reminds me of the look on my face when we took one of the first Tesla roadster test mules out for a spin and did a 0-60 run in 2.7 seconds! woooohooooo that was good fun!

[Jamie]

BMW got subsidies building things the war(s). The major shareholder family have a bit of a sordid history. What was that about behind every great fortune there is a crime?

I’ve read that to be considered a viable car mfg, you need to have a min annual volume between 6 & 10m units p.a.


The fuel injection on the tii drove me batty and was a serious drain on my teenage finances.

[SemiSalt]

OH, I adored the 2002 tii I used to drive for a friend. Great little car until the Datsun 510 coupe showed up and gave it a run. The original Mini Cooper S with extra wide tires and the interior removed was about as much fun as you could have on 4 wheels on an autocross track! So was my Morgan until it got ridiculously hard to keep it running in top form.

I'm pretty sure that in 50 or 60 years folks will feel the same way about Tesla, they already do feel like that about that silly roadster they built. Whenever someone builds a car that really blows your hair back, it gets remembered and taken care of. My son still reminds me of the look on my face when we took one of the first Tesla roadster test mules out for a spin and did a 0-60 run in 2.7 seconds! woooohooooo that was good fun!

In 50 years, cars will be as interesting as elevators, and the idea of "the thrill of the open road" will seem old-fashioned and quaint".

[BeauV]

OH, I adored the 2002 tii I used to drive for a friend. Great little car until the Datsun 510 coupe showed up and gave it a run. The original Mini Cooper S with extra wide tires and the interior removed was about as much fun as you could have on 4 wheels on an autocross track! So was my Morgan until it got ridiculously hard to keep it running in top form.

I'm pretty sure that in 50 or 60 years folks will feel the same way about Tesla, they already do feel like that about that silly roadster they built. Whenever someone builds a car that really blows your hair back, it gets remembered and taken care of. My son still reminds me of the look on my face when we took one of the first Tesla roadster test mules out for a spin and did a 0-60 run in 2.7 seconds! woooohooooo that was good fun!

In 50 years, cars will be as interesting as elevators, and the idea of "the thrill of the open road" will seem old-fashioned and quaint".

Semi, I agree. Vehicles used for "transportation" will become completely boring, and that will be a wonderful thing as we'll stop killing 10,000+ people each year in drunk driving accidents and 30,000+ people over all. (And folks worry about one or two deaths using Autopilot! Geeesh!)

I do think that there will continue to be a significant number of cars that are owned just for fun, the way that we own sailboats. However, they will probably be excluded from the majority of major roadways, and hopefully from all the freeways. They will be driven in the dirt, on back roads, and on race tracks.

[kdh]

I think if we start designing roadways with basic driving aids suited to automated driving as anticipated in this clip from 1956, when self-driving cars were forecast for the far-off future of 1976, we'll be there.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F2iRDYnzwtk

We had the same sort of hope for AI we have now in the 1980s, when neural nets, as they are today, were to be the solution to all our problems.

Computers are faster, we have more data, but we're a long way from the future Elon Musk imagines.

[BeauV]

I've found that accurately predicting the "what" that's going to happen based on technology is pretty easy. My batting average is well over 800.

But predicting "when" that thing is going to happen is really hard. My batting average is about 300 if I give myself ±3 years. If I tighten that to a year my batting average is about 100, pitiful.

Clearly self-driving cars are going to arrive. I can distinctly remember when early attempts quite literally couldn't pass a slow car ahead, now that's trivial. From about 1990 to 2000 things were moving rather slowly. From 2000 to 2010 it accelerated. Now, it's going nuts. I think we linear thinking humans may be in the process of being confronted with an exponential learning curve. It makes it damned hard to predict when something is going to happen.

[Olaf Hart]

That certainly seems to be the way with IT, a slow rise to an inflexion point then an exponential curve.

The down side is rapid obsolescence, I wonder if that will apply to electric cars as well?

I just counted a dozen used laptops stored away in our study. Don’t throw them out because of concerns about stuff on the hard discs, although I doubt I could even find functioning power supplies for most of them.

Hate to think how many old PC’s we went through for the businesses and kids.

We had blue cable throughout the house, then one day the wifi made it useless...

[BeauV]

Yes, average lifespan for a computer around here is about 24 months. For a car it's about 8 years. Frankly, it doesn't matter what comes next. Unless there is a truly amazing car, I'll drive what I've got for at least 8 years. The new boat hauler will easily last 12 to 15 years. Unlike computers, most cars are backwards compatible with the infrastructure, like roads. There really isn't anything forcing a transition, so the transition to electric cars could easily take 15 years. Similarly, the transition to smarter cars could take 10 to 20, but the technology will be available at the front end of that period for those who want it.