Let's talk about the environment here

[Olaf Hart]

Well, my grandparents now have 100 descendants, so look out for the Irish.

Even though we all might have two descendants a couple, there will still be four times as many on the earth if we are alive for three generations.

[Tucky]

Zero population growth is one of those "be careful what you wish for" ideas, as western economies are discovering. The economic issues that have come to the fore in Europe and in most "developed" countries where population growth is below or just at replacement show that the amount of time we spend working will have to increase if we live longer in a zero growth society.

I'm not sure why I find myself "off to the side" of so many of these discussions- I guess it is the same thing that got me to multihulls

Some time in the last few years another phase shift occurred- more people have major health issues from eating too much than too little, according to a number of measurements.

[BeauV]

Jesse, three thoughts,

First, I think a lot of pension plans, of all sorts, have turned out to look a lot more like a Ponzi scheme, than a real funded retirement plan. There are a lot of reasons for that, but the tremendous unplanned drop in income to pension plans from Treasuries, caused by artificially lowering interest rates and thereby causing a massive cut to planned pension income, has been a gigantic factor. Many believe that if interest rates were allowed to "float" to their natural levels, which some forecast at about 6-8% for a typical corp bond and 4-5% for treasuries, then the pension plans would be solvent. Of course most federal, state and local governments would be bankrupt if interest rates tripled+ like this. Sadly, this is probably a cost shifting strategy (away from governments and onto those with cash assets looking to earn interest) than anything else and unfortunately pensions are unable to defend themselves against governments.

Second, I think we're seeing a lot of poor people who can't afford to eat "well" ( meaning in a healthy way ) getting fat while simultaneously ruining their health. I don't really think it's all more calories, but that not all calories are processed the same way in humans. There's a lot of evidence that cheap subsidized carbs make people much fatter on a per calorie basis than expensive bacon.

Finally, I too have noticed that a lot more of the folks I know are falling ill. Perhaps it's our age, perhaps we are becoming less healthy, we are certainly living longer and that gives us more days to be ill in a given lifetime.

BV

[Olaf Hart]

Zero population growth is one of those "be careful what you wish for" ideas, as western economies are discovering. The economic issues that have come to the fore in Europe and in most "developed" countries where population growth is below or just at replacement show that the amount of time we spend working will have to increase if we live longer in a zero growth society.

I'm not sure why I find myself "off to the side" of so many of these discussions- I guess it is the same thing that got me to multihulls

Some time in the last few years another phase shift occurred- more people have major health issues from eating too much than too little, according to a number of measurements.

It's about activity as much or more than it is about diet.

[Jamie]

Jesse, three thoughts,

First, I think a lot of pension plans, of all sorts, have turned out to look a lot more like a Ponzi scheme, than a real funded retirement plan. There are a lot of reasons for that, but the tremendous unplanned drop in income to pension plans from Treasuries, caused by artificially lowering interest rates and thereby causing a massive cut to planned pension income, has been a gigantic factor. Many believe that if interest rates were allowed to "float" to their natural levels, which some forecast at about 6-8% for a typical corp bond and 4-5% for treasuries, then the pension plans would be solvent. Of course most federal, state and local governments would be bankrupt if interest rates tripled+ like this. Sadly, this is probably a cost shifting strategy (away from governments and onto those with cash assets looking to earn interest) than anything else and unfortunately pensions are unable to defend themselves against governments.

Second, I think we're seeing a lot of poor people who can't afford to eat "well" ( meaning in a healthy way ) getting fat while simultaneously ruining their health. I don't really think it's all more calories, but that not all calories are processed the same way in humans. There's a lot of evidence that cheap subsidized carbs make people much fatter on a per calorie basis than expensive bacon.

Finally, I too have noticed that a lot more of the folks I know are falling ill. Perhaps it's our age, perhaps we are becoming less healthy, we are certainly living longer and that gives us more days to be ill in a given lifetime.

BV

My feeling is a lot of companies management didn't help by not fully funding their plans and making basically nonsensical asset growth and actuarial assumptions. The other thing that companies did was switch from defined benefit to defined contribution plans. This was all happening before the financial crisis, but certainly the financial crisis has made a bad problem worse.

[Orestes Munn]

I agree with both of you, but I think corporations also saw the legal, social, and moral risk of failing their pension obligations as preferable, ultimately, to lower projection numbers and stock prices. They also understood that this was a cost that would be readily "socialized" by one means or another, including that grossly underfunded federal pension insurance office, whose name I forget. In order to keep this non-partisan, let me also say that public employee unions and state and municipal governments also colluded on even more fantastic and unfundable plans. The Fed has been a little more circumspect and moved away from from defined benefit to a hybrid model decades ago, except for military retirement.

By way of disclaimer, I expect to start collecting my own military-type pension in the next few years with enormous gratitude to a generous nation, but was pessimistic enough to discount it substantially in my planning. If it becomes subject to means testing, I will willingly give something back.

Hey, it's all part of the environment.