Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby Panope » Sun Jun 18, 2017 11:40 pm

That's a very good point, Semi.

My way of expressing a similar thought, is to ask:

What will save more fuel?

A - Replacing a 10 mpg car with one that gets 20 mpg.

or

B - Replacing a 20 mpg car with one that gets 1,000 mpg.

Steve

(Answer = A)
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby Soñadora » Mon Jun 26, 2017 1:45 pm

JoeP wrote:
kimbottles wrote:
Soñadora wrote:That said, on a personal note I feel like Geddy Lee's uncle with the Red Barchetta. I love ICEs. Especially the evocative ones. I've managed to afford a small taste of that. The Moose (my 2005 Jeep Unlimited Rubicon) is a joy. It has the engine from a tractor. It's soothing to work on because I can get to every square inch of the thing. It's topless (who doesn't like that?). And it can pretty much drive straight up a wall. It gets maybe 10mpg because I'm a kid and I have to have tires with teeth. I drive 5 miles to work. I fill it up once every two weeks. It's not a pain. My other ride is an old Porsche 951 (944 Turbo). It has an aluminum Audi-ish 2.5 motor. It has an 'Active Oil Circulation' system. And stomping on it in 3rd gear at 20 mph (when the turbo is spun up) is my own personal amusement park. It cost $60k new in 1988. I paid 1/10th that. It sounds wonderful when accelerating. Nothing like an old air-cooled flat 6 Porsche. All that clicking-clacking at idle is distinctive. And that exhaust when you get on it is a symphony.

I'd love to have the Morgan 3-wheeler with the Harley motor. They make an electric one too, which I'm sure is fun to drive but...eh. It's not a Harley. Yesterday a dude pulled up next to me in a '68 Malibu. All cam'd and header'd and totally tricked out. Such a gorgeous sound! And what's not to love about ProStock weekend match racing? I'll even admit to having a secret love of tractor pulls. But that's not so much the future except maybe for nostalgia. Watch a Formula-e race and you'll get a good idea of what the future holds. Racing has always been a harbinger of things to come.

When the time comes and I'm sitting on the stoop at the nursing home, I'll be grateful for the quiet whoosh of electric traffic. :)


I already knew I liked you Rick, you above post just confirmed it!


Yes! I understand the rationale for electric vehicles but I love ICEs. There is nothing like the sound of a healthy engine. My wife rolls her eyes when I roll down the windows of the car in order to catch the sound of an interesting vehicle but she understands because I get a kick out of it. When i was about 11 or 12 I used to back my dad''s '59 T-bird out of the garage and record it''s exhaust with the reel to reel as I revved it up.

On my computer at work I have a really good sound clip of an F4-U starting up. It is a glorious cough, sputter, roar! It only sounds god on good speakers with some bass capability. Luckily I have the only computer in the office with a decent sound card and a sub-woofer! I play it once in a while when I get in ahead of most of my co-workers.

I plan on getting a Borla exhaust setup for my FR-'S soon.


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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby Orestes Munn » Mon Jun 26, 2017 2:37 pm

Why, that beast alone will put four coal miners back to work!

...but how does the coal get from the hopper to that firebox way in the front? A long, long screw feed?
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby Jamie » Mon Jun 26, 2017 2:58 pm

JoeP wrote:
kimbottles wrote:
Soñadora wrote:That said, on a personal note I feel like Geddy Lee's uncle with the Red Barchetta. I love ICEs. Especially the evocative ones. I've managed to afford a small taste of that. The Moose (my 2005 Jeep Unlimited Rubicon) is a joy. It has the engine from a tractor. It's soothing to work on because I can get to every square inch of the thing. It's topless (who doesn't like that?). And it can pretty much drive straight up a wall. It gets maybe 10mpg because I'm a kid and I have to have tires with teeth. I drive 5 miles to work. I fill it up once every two weeks. It's not a pain. My other ride is an old Porsche 951 (944 Turbo). It has an aluminum Audi-ish 2.5 motor. It has an 'Active Oil Circulation' system. And stomping on it in 3rd gear at 20 mph (when the turbo is spun up) is my own personal amusement park. It cost $60k new in 1988. I paid 1/10th that. It sounds wonderful when accelerating. Nothing like an old air-cooled flat 6 Porsche. All that clicking-clacking at idle is distinctive. And that exhaust when you get on it is a symphony.

I'd love to have the Morgan 3-wheeler with the Harley motor. They make an electric one too, which I'm sure is fun to drive but...eh. It's not a Harley. Yesterday a dude pulled up next to me in a '68 Malibu. All cam'd and header'd and totally tricked out. Such a gorgeous sound! And what's not to love about ProStock weekend match racing? I'll even admit to having a secret love of tractor pulls. But that's not so much the future except maybe for nostalgia. Watch a Formula-e race and you'll get a good idea of what the future holds. Racing has always been a harbinger of things to come.

When the time comes and I'm sitting on the stoop at the nursing home, I'll be grateful for the quiet whoosh of electric traffic. :)


I already knew I liked you Rick, you above post just confirmed it!


Yes! I understand the rationale for electric vehicles but I love ICEs. There is nothing like the sound of a healthy engine. My wife rolls her eyes when I roll down the windows of the car in order to catch the sound of an interesting vehicle but she understands because I get a kick out of it. When i was about 11 or 12 I used to back my dad''s '59 T-bird out of the garage and record it''s exhaust with the reel to reel as I revved it up.

On my computer at work I have a really good sound clip of an F4-U starting up. It is a glorious cough, sputter, roar! It only sounds god on good speakers with some bass capability. Luckily I have the only computer in the office with a decent sound card and a sub-woofer! I play it once in a while when I get in ahead of most of my co-workers.

I plan on getting a Borla exhaust setup for my FR-'S soon.
:thumbup: :D

That's a nice sounding exhaust, but I wouldn't put one one because it's too loud!
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby BeauV » Mon Jun 26, 2017 3:45 pm

The Admiral and I were taking lunch off today and I wandered into the Tesla dealership. The Model-X (SUV thing) was there and I took my first serious look at it. With the 100 battery pack it has a 300+ mile range, it will tow my Moore-24 (trailer hitch is a $250 "option"), and it seats either 5 or 7 depending on if you purchase the third seat (which I don't need/want).

We'll be tossing the Diesel Cayenne, so it's game-on for what the replacement will be. The Tesla Model-X is slightly cheaper than the Gasoline powered Cayenne and outperforms it significantly in a straight line. We're already all wired up to charge two Tesla's (the Admiral was thinking ahead when we upgraded the 240v to the garage.

We would not, however, have an SUV that could drive for 600 miles non-stop, as we do now. Of course, I don't have a bladder that can drive 600 miles non-stop either! ;)
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby BeauV » Mon Jun 26, 2017 4:06 pm

I just stumbled over this tidbit of information:
In 2020, automakers are expected to produce 85.9 million vehicles equipped with collision-avoidance systems, up from 10.8 million last year, according to Gartner Research.
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby Olaf Hart » Mon Jun 26, 2017 4:25 pm

BeauV wrote:The Admiral and I were taking lunch off today and I wandered into the Tesla dealership. The Model-X (SUV thing) was there and I took my first serious look at it. With the 100 battery pack it has a 300+ mile range, it will tow my Moore-24 (trailer hitch is a $250 "option"), and it seats either 5 or 7 depending on if you purchase the third seat (which I don't need/want).

We'll be tossing the Diesel Cayenne, so it's game-on for what the replacement will be. The Tesla Model-X is slightly cheaper than the Gasoline powered Cayenne and outperforms it significantly in a straight line. We're already all wired up to charge two Tesla's (the Admiral was thinking ahead when we upgraded the 240v to the garage.

We would not, however, have an SUV that could drive for 600 miles non-stop, as we do now. Of course, I don't have a bladder that can drive 600 miles non-stop either! ;)


It also takes longer to empty our bladders as we age.
So if the charge times become shorter, the curves will eventually intersect.
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby LarryHoward » Mon Jun 26, 2017 4:52 pm

Do you have a 100 mile bladder? https://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-x/2 ... ailer.html

This is with a tow weight of 25% of rated. Hard to get around physics. You are only able to carry so many watt hours. General data already says Tesla's "up to" range number is pretty aggressive (as is any manufacturer's mileage rating). Towing will consume a lot more energy and will likely be a very occasional use for the vehicle.
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby Panope » Mon Jun 26, 2017 11:32 pm

LarryHoward wrote:Do you have a 100 mile bladder? https://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-x/2 ... ailer.html

This is with a tow weight of 25% of rated. Hard to get around physics. You are only able to carry so many watt hours. General data already says Tesla's "up to" range number is pretty aggressive (as is any manufacturer's mileage rating). Towing will consume a lot more energy and will likely be a very occasional use for the vehicle.


Tesla pickup truck.

For the OCCASIONAL long trip, toss in a portable generator (and a couple jerry cans). A 10kw (13hp) Honda might double the range on flat ground/no wind.

If you plan your stops at Ted's truck stop, no one will mind (or notice) a generator whirring away while you enjoy some fine cuisine.

That sort of solution would suit me fine (once a year), and probably no one else.

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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby BeauV » Tue Jun 27, 2017 6:29 am

LOL! I'm not seriously thinking of towing the Moore up to Lake Tahoe with a Tesla-X !!

The longest "boat haul" I've done in the last 15 years has been a 66-minute drive from San Francisco to Santa Cruz. Electric cars aren't there yet, and probably won't be anytime soon. I do like Steve's idea of a home-made-hybrid. Larry, I'm stunned that anyone would actually try to drag a trailer around with an oversized golf cart. Great read.

No, if we bought the Model-X, it would be for the 6-mile tow of the boat to the shop that occasionally works on it, meaning about once ever five years; and for the times when the 200-yard tow to the hoist is easier with a car because someone is using (or has broken) our little electric mules that tow boats around the dry storage area, or some other light use.

If we owned one of these, we'd just rent a suburban to tow the boat to places like the Gorge and So. Cal. I'm becoming a BIG believer in buying cars for what you do daily, or at least really really often, and renting things like tow vehicles or long range vehicles for the tiny percentage of the time when I do something adventurous. After having owned 3 Suburbans over 30 years, I finally figured out that it would have been a tiny fraction of the cost to just rent one when I wanted to go skiing or camping and return the thing covered in filth.
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby LarryHoward » Tue Jun 27, 2017 7:23 am

BeauV wrote:LOL! I'm not seriously thinking of towing the Moore up to Lake Tahoe with a Tesla-X !!

The longest "boat haul" I've done in the last 15 years has been a 66-minute drive from San Francisco to Santa Cruz. Electric cars aren't there yet, and probably won't be anytime soon. I do like Steve's idea of a home-made-hybrid. Larry, I'm stunned that anyone would actually try to drag a trailer around with an oversized golf cart. Great read.

No, if we bought the Model-X, it would be for the 6-mile tow of the boat to the shop that occasionally works on it, meaning about once ever five years; and for the times when the 200-yard tow to the hoist is easier with a car because someone is using (or has broken) our little electric mules that tow boats around the dry storage area, or some other light use.

If we owned one of these, we'd just rent a suburban to tow the boat to places like the Gorge and So. Cal. I'm becoming a BIG believer in buying cars for what you do daily, or at least really really often, and renting things like tow vehicles or long range vehicles for the tiny percentage of the time when I do something adventurous. After having owned 3 Suburbans over 30 years, I finally figured out that it would have been a tiny fraction of the cost to just rent one when I wanted to go skiing or camping and return the thing covered in filth.


Perfect.

I just reviewed towing usage of my Lexus. 90+% is less than 15 miles. Very seldom 175-200 mile trips to move kids household stuff and extremely rare 750-800 mile round trips. Heavy towing (>4,000#) come from trading the Lexus with a good friend's F-150 for the weekend.
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby JoeP » Tue Jun 27, 2017 9:30 am

BeauV wrote:LOL! I'm not seriously thinking of towing the Moore up to Lake Tahoe with a Tesla-X !!

The longest "boat haul" I've done in the last 15 years has been a 66-minute drive from San Francisco to Santa Cruz. Electric cars aren't there yet, and probably won't be anytime soon. I do like Steve's idea of a home-made-hybrid. Larry, I'm stunned that anyone would actually try to drag a trailer around with an oversized golf cart. Great read.

No, if we bought the Model-X, it would be for the 6-mile tow of the boat to the shop that occasionally works on it, meaning about once ever five years; and for the times when the 200-yard tow to the hoist is easier with a car because someone is using (or has broken) our little electric mules that tow boats around the dry storage area, or some other light use.

If we owned one of these, we'd just rent a suburban to tow the boat to places like the Gorge and So. Cal. I'm becoming a BIG believer in buying cars for what you do daily, or at least really really often, and renting things like tow vehicles or long range vehicles for the tiny percentage of the time when I do something adventurous. After having owned 3 Suburbans over 30 years, I finally figured out that it would have been a tiny fraction of the cost to just rent one when I wanted to go skiing or camping and return the thing covered in filth.


Well you could get one of those little lightweight stowable trailers to tow all the vegetables you will be growing to the local market.
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby Jamie » Tue Jun 27, 2017 9:32 am

I've been a one car guy for years. But with a daughter coming up to go to school, I bought Tim's old Acura as a commuter car for her. When my wife finally shows up, she'll need one too.

I'd like something that can carry things and she doesn't want anything too big....so few wagons on the market. I have until November to figure this out.
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby JoeP » Tue Jun 27, 2017 10:02 am

My wife loves her Subaru Forester, says it is perfect, and doesn't see the need for anything else. Bought new in 2010, now with 175,000 on the clock. Just routine maintenance so far. My co-worker has a Mazda CX-5 and I really like it.
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby LarryHoward » Tue Jun 27, 2017 10:21 am

JoeP wrote:
BeauV wrote:LOL! I'm not seriously thinking of towing the Moore up to Lake Tahoe with a Tesla-X !!

The longest "boat haul" I've done in the last 15 years has been a 66-minute drive from San Francisco to Santa Cruz. Electric cars aren't there yet, and probably won't be anytime soon. I do like Steve's idea of a home-made-hybrid. Larry, I'm stunned that anyone would actually try to drag a trailer around with an oversized golf cart. Great read.

No, if we bought the Model-X, it would be for the 6-mile tow of the boat to the shop that occasionally works on it, meaning about once ever five years; and for the times when the 200-yard tow to the hoist is easier with a car because someone is using (or has broken) our little electric mules that tow boats around the dry storage area, or some other light use.

If we owned one of these, we'd just rent a suburban to tow the boat to places like the Gorge and So. Cal. I'm becoming a BIG believer in buying cars for what you do daily, or at least really really often, and renting things like tow vehicles or long range vehicles for the tiny percentage of the time when I do something adventurous. After having owned 3 Suburbans over 30 years, I finally figured out that it would have been a tiny fraction of the cost to just rent one when I wanted to go skiing or camping and return the thing covered in filth.


Well you could get one of those little lightweight stowable trailers to tow all the vegetables you will be growing to the local market.


Best "tool" at my house is a 5X10, 3000# capacity steel utility trailer. Carries a pallet of sod, 100 bags of mulch, my Yamaha Rhino w/plow, cut up trees after a storm, Lawn tractor for servicing, household goods, old refrigerators and washer/dryers to the dump or whatever. Cost about $650 when new and has booked hundreds of trips for us and our friends.
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby SemiSalt » Tue Jun 27, 2017 1:00 pm

A look at Tesla from an investment standpoint.
https://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2017/6 ... disruption
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby Panope » Tue Jun 27, 2017 2:08 pm

SemiSalt wrote:A look at Tesla from an investment standpoint.
https://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2017/6 ... disruption


"Tesla stock is a social movement that Musk works hard to cultivate with his reality distortion field. As he has cycled through disruption stories the reality distortion has worked well — at least for those who’ve drunk the Kool-Aid. But in the end, Musk has chosen a space with incumbents with strong capabilities, who, far from ignoring technological challenges, are racing to meet them. He cannot disrupt competitive reality."

Did not Musk do just this in outer space?

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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby LarryHoward » Tue Jun 27, 2017 4:06 pm

Panope wrote:
SemiSalt wrote:A look at Tesla from an investment standpoint.
https://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2017/6 ... disruption


"Tesla stock is a social movement that Musk works hard to cultivate with his reality distortion field. As he has cycled through disruption stories the reality distortion has worked well — at least for those who’ve drunk the Kool-Aid. But in the end, Musk has chosen a space with incumbents with strong capabilities, who, far from ignoring technological challenges, are racing to meet them. He cannot disrupt competitive reality."

Did not Musk do just this in outer space?

Steve


Steve.. I would say a qualified no. NASA has spent millions to enable private launch capability and SpaceX, with Dragon, is an early contender but not alone. We have yet to "compete" actual cost to space but invested to enable the tech. Musk has 7-10 US based customers plus a bunch overseas. In 2010, Musk predicted he would send Astronauts to Space "in 3 years" . Oops. It's now been 7.

IF, and a big IF, if the launch market sticks with ground to space on a single rocket, then Musk is well positioned. Relocatable launch (sea launch) provides great efficiency in higher payloads or lower launch cost for specific orbital dynamics. SpaceX can leverage that. Reusable launch vehicles can reduce the "per launch" costs somewhat but rework and recertification costs hit the other side of the balance sheet. Return to launch site for the booster is a huge step and we all cheered when Musk accomplished it and we saw how goal focused he can be as he kept after it through multiple expensive failures. The next step is reusing a booster and that is planned but not scheduled. I suspect the exostimg vehicle isn't readily cycled so there is plenty of non-recurring to accomplish to take that next critical step.

In the end, payload users will shy from risk and pay a bit more to lower it. With many payloads approaching $200M, underwriters play a big part is selecting launch tech. We know the market is developing several approaches. What tech become mainstream is heat to be determined.

So, a long way of saying that SpaceX is working hard. Their variant on "old school"launch platforms haven't disrupted the market-at least not yet.
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby Panope » Tue Jun 27, 2017 5:44 pm

Thanks, Larry.

What do you thing of Paul Allen's 'Statolaunch'?
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby LarryHoward » Tue Jun 27, 2017 7:50 pm

Panope wrote:Thanks, Larry.

What do you thing of Paul Allen's 'Statolaunch'?
Image


A functional copy of Virgin Galatic's launch vehicle down to maximum reuse of commercial aircraft parts. The Mojave boneyard is great for parts picking! I like it a lot.

That is the tech that is in my mind the most likely to supplant traditional rockets for cheap launch. You avoid the lower atmosphere drag and turbulence, limit the g loading on the payload and have a readily reusable, without rework "first stage". Basically, you eliminate the need for all the cool stuff SpaceX has done inthe last 5 years. A lot of satellite system structure is to allow it to live through the first 40 seconds of high risk flight. I still think United Space Alliance will stay in the game for heavy lift. I think that the Stratolaunch will have some great advantages for light and fragile payloads but wonder if there might still be requirements greater than what Stratolaunch can handle but not what you need a "Titan III" heavy lift. Probably a market for a low to mid sized conventional launch vehicle in that range.
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby LarryHoward » Tue Jun 27, 2017 8:50 pm

LarryHoward wrote:
Panope wrote:
SemiSalt wrote:A look at Tesla from an investment standpoint.
https://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2017/6 ... disruption


"Tesla stock is a social movement that Musk works hard to cultivate with his reality distortion field. As he has cycled through disruption stories the reality distortion has worked well — at least for those who’ve drunk the Kool-Aid. But in the end, Musk has chosen a space with incumbents with strong capabilities, who, far from ignoring technological challenges, are racing to meet them. He cannot disrupt competitive reality."

Did not Musk do just this in outer space?

Steve


Steve.. I would say a qualified no. NASA has spent millions to enable private launch capability and SpaceX, with Dragon, is an early contender but not alone. We have yet to "compete" actual cost to space but invested to enable the tech. Musk has 7-10 US based customers plus a bunch overseas. In 2010, Musk predicted he would send Astronauts to Space "in 3 years" . Oops. It's now been 7.

IF, and a big IF, if the launch market sticks with ground to space on a single rocket, then Musk is well positioned. Relocatable launch (sea launch) provides great efficiency in higher payloads or lower launch cost for specific orbital dynamics. SpaceX can leverage that. Reusable launch vehicles can reduce the "per launch" costs somewhat but rework and recertification costs hit the other side of the balance sheet. Return to launch site for the booster is a huge step and we all cheered when Musk accomplished it and we saw how goal focused he can be as he kept after it through multiple expensive failures. The next step is reusing a booster and that is planned but not scheduled. I suspect the exostimg vehicle isn't readily cycled so there is plenty of non-recurring to accomplish to take that next critical step.

In the end, payload users will shy from risk and pay a bit more to lower it. With many payloads approaching $200M, underwriters play a big part is selecting launch tech. We know the market is developing several approaches. What tech become mainstream is heat to be determined.

So, a long way of saying that SpaceX is working hard. Their variant on "old school"launch platforms haven't disrupted the market-at least not yet.


Have to back track a bit. SpaceX has successfully launched 2 refurbished stages in the last couple of monthso check off that step.
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby BeauV » Tue Jun 27, 2017 9:10 pm

JoeP wrote:My wife loves her Subaru Forester, says it is perfect, and doesn't see the need for anything else. Bought new in 2010, now with 175,000 on the clock. Just routine maintenance so far. My co-worker has a Mazda CX-5 and I really like it.


I know a guy who is a real Billionaire, and the Forester is the only car he'll drive. He has had about 6 of them and drove them until they died of old age.
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby floating dutchman » Fri Jul 07, 2017 2:46 am

Interesting article in the paper this morning:

"France to end sale of diesel and gasoline vehicles by 2040"

http://www.stuff.co.nz/motoring/news/94 ... es-by-2040
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby BeauV » Fri Jul 07, 2017 4:37 am

floating dutchman wrote:Interesting article in the paper this morning:

"France to end sale of diesel and gasoline vehicles by 2040"

http://www.stuff.co.nz/motoring/news/94 ... es-by-2040


Yup, and Volvo has announced they'll only be building electric cars by 2019 (which seems a bit aggressive).

https://www.wsj.com/articles/volvo-to-phase-out-conventional-car-engine-1499227202
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby BeauV » Fri Jul 07, 2017 4:43 am

It turns out that Australia is going to lead the world in LiIon Battery stacks by about a factor of 3 (100 Megawatts and 129 Megawatt Hours). They've hired Tesla to built them a massive storage facility as a part of their power grid. It'll be interesting to see how this goes. LiIon batteries have a certain probability of thermal runaway, and this battery stack will be big enough for that to happen rather frequently. Tesla obviously knows that, so they must have a way to deal with it dynamically.

It seems odd that they'd use LiIon for an application that doesn't value the light weight of that technology.

https://www.tesla.com/blog/tesla-powerpack-enable-large-scale-sustainable-energy-south-australia
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby Tucky » Fri Jul 07, 2017 9:38 am

BeauV wrote:
floating dutchman wrote:Interesting article in the paper this morning:

"France to end sale of diesel and gasoline vehicles by 2040"

http://www.stuff.co.nz/motoring/news/94 ... es-by-2040


Yup, and Volvo has announced they'll only be building electric cars by 2019 (which seems a bit aggressive).

https://www.wsj.com/articles/volvo-to-phase-out-conventional-car-engine-1499227202


I think their statement is that they are promising either all electric or hybrid, so that isn't nearly as aggressive.

When I think about future portable energy needs, I think portable storage is the key question, and right now that means electric batteries or hydrogen fuel. Making hydrogen from solar energy is interesting- there are big barriers but also promising efficiencies. Plants do it so there is a technology to mimic, unlike electricity which nature doesn't store with a bang release:-).
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby Olaf Hart » Fri Jul 07, 2017 4:05 pm

BeauV wrote:It turns out that Australia is going to lead the world in LiIon Battery stacks by about a factor of 3 (100 Megawatts and 129 Megawatt Hours). They've hired Tesla to built them a massive storage facility as a part of their power grid. It'll be interesting to see how this goes. LiIon batteries have a certain probability of thermal runaway, and this battery stack will be big enough for that to happen rather frequently. Tesla obviously knows that, so they must have a way to deal with it dynamically.

It seems odd that they'd use LiIon for an application that doesn't value the light weight of that technology.

https://www.tesla.com/blog/tesla-powerpack-enable-large-scale-sustainable-energy-south-australia


Lots of local politics in that decision, they closed a coal fired plant to rely on renewables, forgetting to deal with the reliability isssue.

Multiple power outages across the state for days at a time, Tesla offered to set up a battery storage system.

I guess both sides will have a big stake in this one.
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby BeauV » Fri Jul 07, 2017 9:39 pm

Olaf Hart wrote:
BeauV wrote:It turns out that Australia is going to lead the world in LiIon Battery stacks by about a factor of 3 (100 Megawatts and 129 Megawatt Hours). They've hired Tesla to built them a massive storage facility as a part of their power grid. It'll be interesting to see how this goes. LiIon batteries have a certain probability of thermal runaway, and this battery stack will be big enough for that to happen rather frequently. Tesla obviously knows that, so they must have a way to deal with it dynamically.

It seems odd that they'd use LiIon for an application that doesn't value the light weight of that technology.

https://www.tesla.com/blog/tesla-powerpack-enable-large-scale-sustainable-energy-south-australia


Lots of local politics in that decision, they closed a coal fired plant to rely on renewables, forgetting to deal with the reliability isssue.

Multiple power outages across the state for days at a time, Tesla offered to set up a battery storage system.

I guess both sides will have a big stake in this one.


The real story is never as simple as the press release ;)
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby floating dutchman » Sat Jul 08, 2017 3:01 am

Olaf Hart wrote:
BeauV wrote:It turns out that Australia is going to lead the world in LiIon Battery stacks by about a factor of 3 (100 Megawatts and 129 Megawatt Hours). They've hired Tesla to built them a massive storage facility as a part of their power grid. It'll be interesting to see how this goes. LiIon batteries have a certain probability of thermal runaway, and this battery stack will be big enough for that to happen rather frequently. Tesla obviously knows that, so they must have a way to deal with it dynamically.

It seems odd that they'd use LiIon for an application that doesn't value the light weight of that technology.

https://www.tesla.com/blog/tesla-powerpack-enable-large-scale-sustainable-energy-south-australia


Lots of local politics in that decision, they closed a coal fired plant to rely on renewables, forgetting to deal with the reliability isssue.

Multiple power outages across the state for days at a time, Tesla offered to set up a battery storage system.

I guess both sides will have a big stake in this one.


This is where I think the trees are getting lost in the forest.
In 10 or maybe 20 years time there will be massive electrical storage in most peoples driveways or where ever they park at work.
If most cars have a 200 mile range and are using about 30 of that in an average day there is lots of potential extra storage everywhere.
The Tesla cars are already connected to the internet so creating a system of charging / discharging and recording and paying / charging for the electricity going in and out is not a huge step.
In New Zealand the wholesale price for electricity is updated every 1/2 hour so there are margins to be made for the car owner. I'm sure you could set limits so you have enough charge for your next trip.
This could potentially allow more of a shift to less reliable sources of generation, to things like solar and wind.
In the not too distant future I think roofs of houses covered with solar panels and Tesla power walls and electric cars will become more normal and integrated. People will chose to invest their electricity storage capacity into the car not the power wall because for the same capital investment they can have a car with more range.
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby BeauV » Sat Jul 08, 2017 6:39 am

FD, the difficulty comes in the weight of the car. The Tesla Model-S is already about 4,700 lbs. Because the storage in the car is constantly be accelerated and decelerated, weight matters a lot more than just the load on the tires etc.... I actually think rental cars/trucks with log range will become a more normal part of the mix, they have for us. When we want to go 800 miles, we rent a oil burner.

Also, there are other technologies coming that are quite heavy and pretty useless for cars, but those batteries are a fraction of the cost of LiIon batteries and have a lot of capacity. As local storage becomes more common, those technologies will become common and a great deal of local storage will be available both for things like solar or wind power, or to just time shift demand to low costs periods.

The odd thing is that in some areas of California we're seeing a reverse of the power/cost formula. There is too much electricity on a sunny afternoon. As a result, the price should fall rapidly and people can store it for later. But in the US the power pricing isn't that flexible. It's still set by the cost of production using gas/oil/coal. As a result, prices are high on a sunny afternoon because they've wanted to discourage loads like air conditioners. That'll change rapidly as all this stuff gets on-line.
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