Conoravirus ...

[kimbottles]

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6

[Tigger]

Based on the data in Kim's link, it's running at a 3.4% death rate of those infected. I'm suspicious about whether or not China has supplied accurate numbers of infection and death.

[Chris Chesley]

Based on the data in Kim's link, it's running at a 3.4% death rate of those infected. I'm suspicious about whether or not China has supplied accurate numbers of infection and death.

Let's see here now:

750,000,000 Chinese locked down. (for a disease that's 'only' infected some 80k worldwide with a less than 3000 deaths. ---btw, the flu has killed 8000 here in the US this year)

China has changed the definition of 'infected/sick' at least twice....

Test kits are both faulty (up to 50% false negatives) and have limited availability or are not even being used (here in the US at least) if someone hasn't been in China recently or in close proximity to someone who was.

Ya can't have confirmed if they aren't tested! or if they falsely signal a negative result.

Contagion can likely occur before or after symptoms appear. (So, is the person next to you right now already infected but shows no symptoms and tests negative?)

These facts make me believe that the issue is much worse than we know....or maybe it isn't as bad as we're being led to believe. Actually both statements may be true. Not bad for 80%, but terrible for the other 20%.

I've added to my food and staples stash a bit this weekend. Can't find any masks, just empty shelves at the hardware/big box stores. Forget about getting those N-95 masks too! (you know, the ones that actually protect YOU)

Still unknown is whether there is a preference for certain 'lineages'. (note: simply knowing one's citizenship does NOT necessarily indicate one's genetics) Total radio silence on this in print or pictures... (it might actually matter)

While the virus can be contagious when someone is in close proximity, the primary outbreaks have also occurred in areas of, how shall we say it, 'less than optimum sanitary habits and conditions.

Sanitation and genetics aren't 'PC" topics but may be significant factors. Time will tell.

[TheOffice]

Chris,

My wife tells me populations that are at risk from the flu (old, compromised) are at risk here too. Healthy adults will not die.

Joel

[kdh]

Looks like the markets have stabilized, at least in the short term. The CDC statement yesterday seemed to freak people out.

[Chris Chesley]

Chris,

My wife tells me populations that are at risk from the flu (old, compromised) are at risk here too. Healthy adults will not die.

Joe



It does indeed appear that way. Hence, not likely a big deal for the 80%. (I'm acutely aware that I'm much closer to the 20% high risk demographic....)

[kimbottles]

Just in case some of you are not yet reading Heather Cox Richardson’s excellent “Letter from an American”.

https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.c ... enrlZXNSJs

[TheOffice]

Trump is doing a press conference at 6 ET. Apparently he is ignoring the CDC warnings and wants us to do the same so 'his' stock market is not harmed.

If he is so confident, let his go to Wuhan!

[SemiSalt]

One reporter's rather bleak view:

https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/wat ... 9446085581

[H B]

Cool map find, Kim...

So, if you have 're-covered,' do you now have sufficient antibodies to avoid getting sick again? Those in the 'green list' on Kim's map could be like all struttin' their stuff down Main Street in China.

[TheOffice]

Chinese officials think you can still carry it after recovery.

My daughter is supposed to go to the Olympics this summer. We'll see what happens.

While the map is cool, we don't even have test kits, so no way to tell how under-reported it is.

[LarryHoward]

One reporter's rather bleak view:

https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/wat ... 9446085581

Well Rachael Maddow has a bleak view of everything.

[kdh]

My daughter's school music trip to Paris and Cologne next month just got cancelled.

[BeauV]

We have a newborn grandson arriving in mid-June. His mom and dad (our son) are worried sick about it.

While some of us retired folks have the option of reducing our contact with the general population, both our son and his wife are in sales and technical support. They talk to hundreds of people a week and our son works in hospitals. I can completely understand why they're worried.

[Anomaly]

Hmmm,

I'm flying to Italy in a little over a week. Maybe they'll impose a ban on flights from Italy and I'll have to stay.

[Tigger]

We have a newborn grandson arriving in mid-June. His mom and dad (our son) are worried sick about it.

While some of us retired folks have the option of reducing our contact with the general population, both our son and his wife are in sales and technical support. They talk to hundreds of people a week and our son works in hospitals. I can completely understand why they're worried.

Our daughter-in-law is due in August. She's an Optometrist, which requires getting very close to your patient's faces ... it's a concern.

[Jamie]

Italy is getting smacked around because they've been very aggressive about testing for it. It's highly contagious, but so far even though there is no treatment, if you don't have compromised immune system, or have impaired lung function due to smoking (China, India..etc..) or really bad pollution (China, India..etc..) you should be OK. Our offices (BSL2 & 3 labs) are back to work in China.

Economically it's blip in my mind, even when it comes to the US as it inevitably will, and will accelerate the decoupling of some global supply chains that are over-reliant on China.

[Ajax]

Some young people have died from the virus. The Chinese doctor who essentially discovered the virus has died from it and he was not old or compromised.

The stock market reacts emotionally. I'm not holding Trump responsible for investor panic. As far as I'm concerned, this is an opportunity for my 401k to bargain shop.
When the vaccine is developed and stocks skyrocket with euphoria and relief, I'll make more money.

We have laid in extra food and non-food supplies in case we have to self-isolate for awhile. I do not expect any utility disruptions though, so it's all yummy food, not canned and non-perishables or MRE's.

[Jamie]

Some young people have died from the virus. The Chinese doctor who essentially discovered the virus has died from it and he was not old or compromised.

The stock market reacts emotionally. I'm not holding Trump responsible for investor panic. As far as I'm concerned, this is an opportunity for my 401k to bargain shop.
When the vaccine is developed and stocks skyrocket with euphoria and relief, I'll make more money.

We have laid in extra food and non-food supplies in case we have to self-isolate for awhile. I do not expect any utility disruptions though, so it's all yummy food, not canned and non-perishables or MRE's.

It's hard for presidents to impact fundamentals. I give Trump little credit up or down. But, if he wants to take that mantle, then he should take credit for both.

The Chinese doc was probably overworked, under stress (work and politically), receiving poor care initially and in contact with some of the most severe cases. Here's some age related stats. Some older members of our forum should take care. The mortality rates get pretty high over 60. I'd be surprised if they have a vaccine quickly.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ographics/

[Steele]

The course of the epidemic is starting to change as more people are being infected who had no direct link to China. It is still a small number but will grow, especialy now that it is clear that the virus can be transmitted while an individual does not appear ill, or perhaps after the 14 day quarantine period. Many of these viruses are seasonal, but we might not get a break on this one as it seems to be doing OK in SE Asia and Australia, time will tell.

Despite that any measures we can take to slow the spread are valuable. This allows the medical and scientific community time to research better testing and perhaps treatment. It also will slow the flow of patients into an already stressed medical system. Durring flu season many patients can wait hours, or even days, to be admitted to a hospital. Having groups of infectious sick patients in halways and waiting rooms is not good containment policy.

In our clinic we have all been fit tested with N95 masks, and are screening all patients making appointments for respiratory symptoms and travel history. Unfortunately outpatient clinics do not have containment rooms, and we do not have access to testing for this virus. If this evolves like previous bad flu years we will probably do a lot phone triage and urge non criticaly ill people to isolate at home.

Slowing things down should also help the economy. Although Rich is correct that much stock market variability is emotional, I listened to a pretty good commentary from an economist on NPR yesterday. She pointed out this event can have a real rather percieved effect by slowing production of goods as supply chains and factories are disrupted, as well as slow demand as entire communities stay at home not working, and not purchasing goods and services. She also pointed out that rebuilding supply chains is very hard and expensive which is why almost nobody has done it, even in the face of the last several years trade war with China.

[LarryHoward]

The course of the epidemic is starting to change as more people are being infected who had no direct link to China. It is still a small number but will grow, especialy now that it is clear that the virus can be transmitted while an individual does not appear ill, or perhaps after the 14 day quarantine period. Many of these viruses are seasonal, but we might not get a break on this one as it seems to be doing OK in SE Asia and Australia, time will tell.

Despite that any measures we can take to slow the spread are valuable. This allows the medical and scientific community time to research better testing and perhaps treatment. It also will slow the flow of patients into an already stressed medical system. Durring flu season many patients can wait hours, or even days, to be admitted to a hospital. Having groups of infectious sick patients in halways and waiting rooms is not good containment policy.

In our clinic we have all been fit tested with N95 masks, and are screening all patients making appointments for respiratory symptoms and travel history. Unfortunately outpatient clinics do not have containment rooms, and we do not have access to testing for this virus. If this evolves like previous bad flu years we will probably do a lot phone triage and urge non critically ill people to isolate at home.

Slowing things down should also help the economy. Although Rich is correct that much stock market variability is emotional, I listened to a pretty good commentary from an economist on NPR yesterday. She pointed out this event can have a real rather perceived effect by slowing production of goods as supply chains and factories are disrupted, as well as slow demand as entire communities stay at home not working, and not purchasing goods and services. She also pointed out that rebuilding supply chains is very hard and expensive which is why almost nobody has done it, even in the face of the last several years trade war with China.

Add in that many hospitals are already at capacity every night, even for shared rooms. Even for scheduled admissions (for Chemo), I had to wait at admissions anywhere from 1- 4 hours for a room to become available. At my local hospital, folks being admitted through the ER or from ambulatory surgery (complications) routinely wait several hours and sometimes overnight for a bed.

[Ajax]

Steele, you just hit on my big concern.

I think I can survive the virus but if I need an IV for rehydration or some other relatively minor support to fight off the virus, it may not be forthcoming.

My plan is: Try not to get sick. If I get sick, the house is stocked with items to try to mitigate the symptoms so I can survive at home until it passes.
Going to hospital seems fairly fruitless once the spread ratchets up.

[TheOffice]

We now have a guy in charge of our response to rejects science. What could go wrong?

[Slick470]

Steele, you just hit on my big concern.

I think I can survive the virus but if I need an IV for rehydration or some other relatively minor support to fight off the virus, it may not be forthcoming.

My plan is: Try not to get sick. If I get sick, the house is stocked with items to try to mitigate the symptoms so I can survive at home until it passes.
Going to hospital seems fairly fruitless once the spread ratchets up.

I don't know why my mind went there, but by that logic, getting it early and out of the way before the health system is overwhelmed might be a slight advantage vs getting it later in the full swing of things.

[slap]

The Washington Post had an article yesterday about the Coronavirus disrupting the supply of drugs to the US - many drugs are made in, or use ingredients from China.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2 ... sruptions/

"Former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb, at a recent hearing about U.S. preparedness for pandemics, warned not only about U.S. reliance on the active ingredients in drugs but also on their chemical precursors — “lower margin, low-technology starting materials and components that — over time — have become sole sourced in China.” Many of these materials are made in China’s Hubei Provence, the epicenter of coronavirus, he said."


And Trump's budget cuts to the CDC are under fire:

https://fortune.com/2020/02/26/coronavi ... -us-trump/

"The Trump administration recently requested $2.5 billion in emergency funds to prepare the U.S. for a possible widespread outbreak of coronavirus. Critics, though, are pointing out that money might not be necessary if the administration hadn’t spent the past two years largely dismantling government units that were designed to protect against pandemics."

[Olaf Hart]

My concern is a concurrent respiratory virus outbreak.
Oz is heading for flu season in the next three months.
We now appreciate the importance of aerosol as well as droplet spread for flu and possibly for corona virus.
We also now understand our immune response is rate limited at the end alveolar level, where viruses in aerosol land.
So if we already have flu, it is possible for another organism to get straight into the bloodstream unimpeded and undetected.
When i was researching legionella this was the postulated mechanism of the shock like state some cases experience.
So the short message is dont neglect your flu shot

[LarryHoward]

My concern is a concurrent respiratory virus outbreak.
Oz is heading for flu season in the next three months.
We now appreciate the importance of aerosol as well as droplet spread for flu and possibly for corona virus.
We also now understand our immune response is rate limited at the end alveolar level, where viruses in aerosol land.
So if we already have flu, it is possible for another organism to get straight into the bloodstream unimpeded and undetected.
When i was researching legionella this was the postulated mechanism of the shock like state some cases experience.
So the short message is dont neglect your flu shot

That's ugly.

My doctor never had any "old people" flu vaccine in stock when I was there so I've let that slide this season. Might have to go get a flu shot even though we are at the end of the season here.

[BeauV]

This was my first year getting the "Old Guy" flu shot. Now, I'm glad I did.

At one of the organizations upon which I'm on the Board of Directors, tonight we set up a task force to outline our response. No one wants this to ever happen, but it is idiotic not to be prepared. I view it like bungs to plug a broken thru-hull - no one ever wants to use them, but you'd be kicking yourself while treading water if you hadn't had them aboard.

I'd be very interested in any/all suggestions on preventative measures. At home we are considering:
- disposable gloves to be worn outside at all times dumped before re-entering the home.
- stocking something that kills the little bastards (bleach, rubbing alcohol, etc... ???)
- high-quality masks are already stocked, but we need to clean them upon returning home (see second item above)
- Like Ajax, stocking food etc... for a long "stay at home" or "go to sea"

What else??

[SemiSalt]

I saw one doctor who has studied transmission of viruses who daidchands are the most common way people get these diseases. So wash you hands thoroughly at every opportunity, and get familiar with hand sanitizer. We had a brief discussion with one of my doctors this week, and she said that handwashing/sanitation is one of the keys in controlling hospital-acquired infections.

[Jamie]

The US will get to find out exactly how broken our ER system is.

WHO formula hand-sanitizer and washing hands. Most facemasks don’t fit right,and it’s hard to maintain a good seal, so even if it’s an n95, the functionality is mostly to keep others from getting infected.