Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

[floating dutchman]

$3.08 a gallon! Yeepers thats cheap, We pay around $2.20 a liter.
How do you pay with road user charges? Currently in NZ there are no road user charges on electric cars but there is a plan to bring it in at some stage, I forget the exact criteria but there will be road user charges here in the future.

Jeroen.

[BeauV]

$3.08 a gallon! Yeepers thats cheap, We pay around $2.20 a liter.
How do you pay with road user charges? Currently in NZ there are no road user charges on electric cars but there is a plan to bring it in at some stage, I forget the exact criteria but there will be road user charges here in the future.

Jeroen.

There's a big argument brewing about what we call Gasoline Taxes. Those are used to fund a part of the cost of building/maintaining roads. Note: It doesn't even come close to covering it all. Currently, electric and hybrid vehicles don't pay a road-use tax, but here in California (the only place I know anything about) I'm guessing that the State Legislature will pass a flat tax that gets charged on every electric car when it is re-registered each year. Frankly, the cost of operations of an electric car is so much lower than a gasoline car that electric car owners shouldn't complain. Of course, they will anyway.

BTW, as gas mileage has improved dramatically, that has resulted in an equally dramatic drop in revenues for road building/maintenance. When the State of CA raised gasoline taxes as a result of that decline in revenues, a lot of people howled! They were deeply offended that their taxes went up. They simply don't think about the point of the tax.

[BeauV]

If y'all didn't get a chance to see the BIG REVEAL of the Tesla Roadster 2.0, then you really owe it to yourself to watch this video. For a mere $250,000 you can own a "Founders Series" version of this car with a zero-60MPH time of 1.9 seconds. Gasp! Top speed of 250 MPH. Double Gasp!

The Admiral likes the red color - time to sign up!

[SemiSalt]

In Connecticut, there has been talk of putting GOS devices in each car to total up the miles driven in state for tax purposes. That's in addition to reinstating tolls on the CT Tpke.

[TheOffice]

If y'all didn't get a chance to see the BIG REVEAL of the Tesla Roadster 2.0, then you really owe it to yourself to watch this video. For a mere $250,000 you can own a "Founders Series" version of this car with a zero-60MPH time of 1.9 seconds. Gasp! Top speed of 250 MPH. Double Gasp!

The Admiral likes the red color - time to sign up! :)

That is one sexy car!

[kdh]

If y'all didn't get a chance to see the BIG REVEAL of the Tesla Roadster 2.0, then you really owe it to yourself to watch this video. For a mere $250,000 you can own a "Founders Series" version of this car with a zero-60MPH time of 1.9 seconds. Gasp! Top speed of 250 MPH. Double Gasp!

The Admiral likes the red color - time to sign up!

That is one sexy car!

This is a sexy car. From the former Ferrari designer Pininfarina.

https://www.motor1.com/news/344319/top-gear-dissects-pininfarina-battista/

[TheOffice]

But 10x the price of the Tesla.

[BeauV]

Keith, deciding what's "sexy" is obviously a very personal thing. I really don't like any of the new supercars because they are covered in little slots, air inlets, and fins. It just doesn't do it for me at all. But, I don't like the Lambo designs either, too much like a kids version of a spacecraft. To me when we entered the angular folded origami era of car design the left me behind and I haven't really liked any of the Ferrari or Lambos since. The beginning of the end was the Testarossa. It was a dud, IMHO, compared to the curves and grace of something like the 330 P4. When they abandoned those sensuous curves they lost me.




For me, the Tesla Roadster 2 represents something of a return that style of car. It overstates the curves, understates or removes all the clutter of slots, scoops, fins, etc.... Then there is the wonderful fact that it is as nearly silent as a car can get. I know some folks like loud engines. But I've come to realize that after an hour or two on the road, all that noise is just irritating.

[kdh]

Well, nothing does it for me design-wise more than Ferrari's 458 Italia. The last mid-engine V8 that Pininfarina designed for Ferrari, and the last of the naturally aspirated engines. There is nothing like the sound of it at 9000 rpm.



By the way, the Pininfarina above is all electric. 1900hp.

[BeauV]

Keith, the 458 is lovely. It's a lot closer to the old school voluptuous cars that Pininfarina designed.

I used to enjoy engine noise until I had a really fast car that doesn't make any. Then, after a 500-mile drive on some fun roads, I realized that I didn't miss all the roaring and poping at all; in fact, I really enjoyed how quiet and stealth like it was.

[kdh]

Keith, the 458 is lovely. It's a lot closer to the old school voluptuous cars that Pininfarina designed.

I used to enjoy engine noise until I had a really fast car that doesn't make any. Then, after a 500-mile drive on some fun roads, I realized that I didn't miss all the roaring and poping at all; in fact, I really enjoyed how quiet and stealth like it was.

I don't particularly like the noise either.

The 458 is fairly quiet when cruising, astonishingly so as the engine is right behind my head.

[TheOffice]

Rumor is he Model S and X are getting some sort of refresh with faster charging times and a Model 3 like interior. Sales of S and X models are in the toilet, and Model 3 inventory is now online, so you just have to wait for delivery.

[BeauV]

Rumor is he Model S and X are getting some sort of refresh with faster charging times and a Model 3 like interior. Sales of S and X models are in the toilet, and Model 3 inventory is now online, so you just have to wait for delivery.

Our Model S and X are already charging faster. I'm assuming they can make it faster yet in newer cars, but the limitation they most recently solved was not in the car, it was in the supercharger. It turns out that the cable from the electrical pump (not sure what to call it) to the car was the limiting factor. It overheats if you run the power in at the max speed which the car can take it.

This makes sense when you consider that the Model X can haul 7 people, their luggage, and a trailer up over Donner Pass without a problem at 80+ MPH. The cooling system on the batteries isn't the limiting factor. The new supercharger I use between SF and Santa Cruz has higher output cables. Charge rates went from about 65 KW to 90+ KW. This higher rate means that I can stop bothering to use the extended range charge at home, pull into the supercharger, and by the time I've walked 100' to Starbucks and returned with a Latte, the car is recharged enough to get me home and then some. I've heard from folks at Tesla that there will be 150 KW chargers soon and that it will be backward compatible with our older cars. As one would expect, it will continue to be limited by heat dissipation, and the 150 KW cables will be liquid cooled. The batteries in the car already are liquid cooled.

Incremental steps like this are doing a lot to remove the forecast advantage of the Porsche/Audi fast charging system they have talked about deploying. Which will be proprietary and have only a tiny fraction of the charging stations Tesla already has. Folks have to realize that Tesla still responds to competition like a tech company, not like a car company. If a car company announce something, Tesla will try to get that same feature to market before the car company can (or near enough). Unlike car companies, they realize that leading is the only safe position. Customer loyalty isn't worth much during a technology disruption.

[TheOffice]

Very cool! The pace of innovation is amazing!

[SemiSalt]

Rumor is he Model S and X are getting some sort of refresh with faster charging times and a Model 3 like interior. Sales of S and X models are in the toilet, and Model 3 inventory is now online, so you just have to wait for delivery.

Tesla sales seem very volatile. Are they all early triers who might jump to a different brand for any minor reason?

[TheOffice]

Rumor is he Model S and X are getting some sort of refresh with faster charging times and a Model 3 like interior. Sales of S and X models are in the toilet, and Model 3 inventory is now online, so you just have to wait for delivery.

Tesla sales seem very volatile. Are they all early triers who might jump to a different brand for any minor reason?

I don't think so. Jag can't give away its electric. As my wife pointed out to me, buying an electric from a brand known for electrical problems just seems like asking for trouble.

[kdh]

From Elon Musk yesterday as reported by Bloomberg:

...by the middle of next year, 1 million Teslas will be on the road that are fully capable of driving themselves. During an hours-long investor day presentation focused on autonomy, Musk said customers will be able to put their cars onto a shared network of robotaxis, which will be able to get around without a human inside.

Were it even remotely possible it would be exciting. Maybe Telsa will buy their own cars and put them into the shared network of robocars. A great solution to their demand problems.

Tomorrow's earnings report is huge for anyone interested in the stock.

[TheOffice]

At this point Elon is the boy who cried wolf. That's more than their total output! Maybe in 5 years there will be 100,000 on the road.

[BeauV]

Rumor is he Model S and X are getting some sort of refresh with faster charging times and a Model 3 like interior. Sales of S and X models are in the toilet, and Model 3 inventory is now online, so you just have to wait for delivery.

Tesla sales seem very volatile. Are they all early triers who might jump to a different brand for any minor reason?

I do think that classical "Early Adopters" were the customers a couple of years ago. They might very well move to a newer brand, but not for "brand" reasons. They tend to move based on technology innovation. As far as I can tell the group of followers (Audi, Porsche, etc...) are not offering anything genuinely "new". Rather, they are just playing catch up with Tesla, which is done clobbering them with Early Adopters.

I think we are in the middle of the "Early Majority" phase for electric vehicles and certainly for Tesla as the leader. The customers who are buying now seem much more interested in the broad list of features offered by the various cars. Yes, they have probably decided to buy an electric car; but that isn't the only criteria. It is here that the tailenders can have a chance. Clearly, Porsche knows how to build a better suspension than Tesla. But one has to keep in mind that when buying a Panamera-vs-ModelS or Cayenne-vs-ModelX very very very few folks care about the performance of a suspension on a track, the vast majority care about the performance of the suspension on a freeway or local road. (This is why one's speed around the Nuremberg Ring is irrelevant to most customers, other than bragging rights.)

Finally, folks do need to keep in mind that while Tesla sales have tanked this quarter, the massive spike last year was probably due (in part) to sucking on the straw of demand to get orders moved in and capture the subsidy combined with Tesla finally being able to ship the backlog of Model 3 sedans. I should not be a surprise to anyone that those two things were one-time events. Having said that, many forecasters use the G^2FT (Gardner Group Forecasting Tool) which is a ruler. For the last few months, the ruler forecasting method has gone from massively overly optimistic to absurdly overly pessimistic. A simple 6-month trailing average would be far more helpful, but what it would show is not newsworthy and certainly of no interest to short term speculators in the public market. The Hype-Cycle rules all when it comes to "news".

[kdh]

Beau, though I know you're not a TSLA investor, stock pickers where I've worked learn early on that statements like "what it would show is not newsworthy and certainly of no interest to short term speculators in the public market" and other denigrating sentiments are dangerous. Markets are always quite close to accurate based on the information available in valuing anything.

Tesla stock is a speculative growth story. It used to survive breathing the air of Elon Musk's bold proclamations like yesterday's automated driving lecture on how much smarter his company is in designing software, using the right sensors, and even designing semiconductors. But at some point demand for the cars and cash balances become important, and that time is now for Tesla.

The market, according to one analyst's guess, is looking for guidance of 85,000 vehicles for the 2nd quarter and $2.5b or more of remaining cash. This is way, way down from earlier Musk guidance of a million vehicle deliveries this year and a profitable company.

[BeauV]

Keith, I never intended my statement about a long term trailing average to be "derogatory", sorry I wasn't more clear and careful. I really meant that I didn't think it would be of any use/interest.

While I am absolutely not a short term investor, average hold time is about 5 to 6 years for me with my big winners having a duration of 15+ years, I have a bunch of friends who are very short term. We argue about things like "growth story" all the time with me taking the side of: "You don't have enough information to make that bet". I completely and totally agree with your statement that the public markets are a pretty good indicator over some time period longer than an hour or a day, but a lot of extremely short term trading leads me to believe that in the short term that isn't true. But, I don't have any serious sample to prove my hunch.

While Elon was clearly the "right guy for the job" when the job was getting a great car built and into the market. It's dubious that he is anything even close to the right guy for dealing with any business of the scale of Tesla. Which is why I'm not a shareholder. I've seen this particular movie over and over again in a variety of tech companies, which is what Tesla really is at this point. The sort of personality that can create a winning tech company is almost never the sort of personality who can run it.

[TheOffice]

Tesla news -The S and X are getting new motors and adaptive suspension, and 35 miles more range. Also faster charging on a level 2 charger.

Nothing earth shattering.

For reasons I don't understand Virginia VW dealers can't sell the e-Golf. Not that anyone wants a car with a 125 mile range.

[kdh]

Beau, when I was at Fidelity the guy who ran our biggest fund used to say "the long term is just a string of quarters." There's truth to that, and all the data I've seen points to the notion that investing over the long term is more about minimizing investment management fees than anything else. On the margin acting like Warren Buffet and taking opportunities to buy when no one else is.

My understanding of the modern stock markets is that short term trading is mostly to earn pennies by satisfying supply/demand trading imbalances. Essentially dealer activity which has nothing to do with companies. Surely there are day traders that think they have an edge, but they don't last long.

But your point is certainly widely held and I have no problem with your denigrating a straw man superficially focused stock investor.

In Tesla's case it's just time to put up or shut up: Show us you can make cars and earn a profit doing it.

[kdh]

Tesla news -The S and X are getting new motors and adaptive suspension, and 35 miles more range. Also faster charging on a level 2 charger.

Nothing earth shattering.

For reasons I don't understand Virginia VW dealers can't sell the e-Golf. Not that anyone wants a car with a 125 mile range.

To me the e-Golf is just a Golf that you can't just fill up at the gas station. Teslas are cool.

I think Porsche has the right idea introducing a new model that's only available as an electric. It then says "cutting-edge Porsche" about its driver. No one has to look for blue trim or the little "e" in front of the model designation.

[Chris Chesley]

On a related note...

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04- ... -operation

This can't go on indefinitely without serious consequences. Me? No Tesla for me (but then it isn't in my budget either...)

[BeauV]

Keith, I can certainly understand your Fidelity guy’s positions, and I agree with it for companies which Fidelity might invest in. It’s just not what I do. I find folks who are amazing and who are trying to solve some massively difficult problem that will almost always take half a decade or more to get working. That difficulty builds big motes around the market position when they arrive, which defends them for quite a while. Of course, competition always shows up eventually. Then one has to get BIG or get OUT - FAST.

I guess I don’t see my approach as being anything like Buffet’s, my bank account confirms that opinion.

Having watched Tesla do every single round of financing, fire the founders, Elon showing up, driving all their test cars, etc.... They most certainly fulfilled my criteria as a team working to solve a massively difficult problem and it took well over a decade to get to the first real product. Their moat is much larger than most folks think, as evidenced by the electric cars which are now emerging with pitifully small range for the same battery sizes, the installed base of super chargers, and their own battery supply.

All that said, I actually think Elan should have departed to his next “big idea” at least a year ago. Tesla really REALLY needs the “Tim Cook of Tesla”.

[LarryHoward]

Keith, I can certainly understand your Fidelity guy’s positions, and I agree with it for companies which Fidelity might invest in. It’s just not what I do. I find folks who are amazing and who are trying to solve some massively difficult problem that will almost always take half a decade or more to get working. That difficulty builds big motes around the market position when they arrive, which defends them for quite a while. Of course, competition always shows up eventually. Then one has to get BIG or get OUT - FAST.

I guess I don’t see my approach as being anything like Buffet’s, my bank account confirms that opinion.

Having watched Tesla do every single round of financing, fire the founders, Elon showing up, driving all their test cars, etc.... They most certainly fulfilled my criteria as a team working to solve a massively difficult problem and it took well over a decade to get to the first real product. Their moat is much larger than most folks think, as evidenced by the electric cars which are now emerging with pitifully small range for the same battery sizes, the installed base of super chargers, and their own battery supply.

All that said, I actually think Elan should have departed to his next “big idea” at least a year ago. Tesla really REALLY needs the “Tim Cook of Tesla”.

Beau,

My question is "Could/Will they survive the transition from startup to "real" company?" Are they stable enough to survive without a head showman? Elon may still be the devil they have to live with but he desperately need a strong Ops leader

[Panope]

My Aunt and Uncle drove up from Los Angeles in their Tesla 3, Taking three days. Longest travel day was Northern Cal to Vancouver Wa. They Charged at Tesla supercharger stations (exclusively) without problem, eating lunch or wandering around for a bit while charging. They chose to charge conservatively at 150 mile intervals rather than try for maximum range (300). They seem genuinely happy with the car, saying it is a "fun car".

Range/charging is still incompatible for hardened road Nazis, but for everyone else, I think we are pretty much there (if you can afford the purchase price).

Steve

[Olaf Hart]

I am hanging out for the all electric VW van...

[LarryHoward]

I am hanging out for the all electric VW van...

Just for you. https://www.zelectricmotors.com/available