Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

[kimbottles]

I am on the ferry right now returning from the VW Settlement first step with my Touareg. $3.8k today and then wait for EPA TO APPROVE the software fix.

I love my Touareg and want to keep it. Another $3.8k comes with the fix. (They previously sent us $2k)

Total pay out to us is $9771 and they claim they can fix it without impact and we get to keep the vehicle.

If not they have to buy this one back. (I wonder if I can just keep it if they CANT fix it?)

[Joli]

I am on the ferry right now returning from the VW Settlement first step with my Touareg. $3.8k today and then wait for EPA TO APPROVE the software fix.

I love my Touareg and want to keep it. Another $3.8k comes with the fix. (They previously sent us $2k)

Total pay out to us is $9771 and they claim they can fix it without impact and we get to keep the vehicle.

If not they have to buy this one back. (I wonder if I can just keep it if they CANT fix it?)

Kim, your engine is Gen 2 isn't it? They thought they could fix it. We have a Gen 1 engine and they have already said they can't fix ours. What a shame, a diesel makes so much sense for certain types of vehicles. Word is they are now going after Chrysler and BMW. The day of the diesel car is over....

[Orestes Munn]

I am on the ferry right now returning from the VW Settlement first step with my Touareg. $3.8k today and then wait for EPA TO APPROVE the software fix.

I love my Touareg and want to keep it. Another $3.8k comes with the fix. (They previously sent us $2k)

Total pay out to us is $9771 and they claim they can fix it without impact and we get to keep the vehicle.

If not they have to buy this one back. (I wonder if I can just keep it if they CANT fix it?)

Kim, your engine is Gen 2 isn't it? They thought they could fix it. We have a Gen 1 engine and they have already said they can't fix ours. What a shame, a diesel makes so much sense for certain types of vehicles. Word is they are now going after Chrysler and BMW. The day of the diesel car is over....

NOx doesn't seem like an insurmountable problem.

[Panope]

As C continues to climb the viability of electric cars makes more sense, battery development is occurring at a staggering rate. I'm not there as a potential EV buyer, I drive too many miles in a short time, charge times are still to long for me. I'll drive non-stop Cleveland to West Palm Florida, only stopping for coffee and fuel. With the TDI Touareg that's one stop in Atlanta.

So who is considering LiFePO for their boats? We still use 6 & 8 volt golf cart batteries and with enough house bank don't see more then 11/13% draw down in 24 hours. It doesn't make sense for us.

Joli,

Stan did a LiFePO stack for his Cal-40. It's three years into cruising Mexico, when they aren't sailing big boats. So far, working great. However, it took a Stan-Custom-Controller to get it to the safety levels he wanted. We re-loaded with good old AGM batteries last time around. (Trojan golf cart batteries) They'll last at least 5-7 years. By then I'm hoping LiFePO will be productized and we'll shift.

What are you going to do with the TDI Touareg? The Admiral and I were talking about it on our way to the airport today. (She's off to NYC to help a friend.) We like the Cayanne TDI and don't really want to give it up, but if they don't get these 3L engines "fixed" we will have to turn it in. In current form, they're not street legal. We were having the "do we buy a Tesla Model-X or some oil burner?" discussion.

We're going to trade in the TDI for this!

http://abinflatables.com/boats/profile-a13/

No complaints about what VW is offering, it looks like about $29k for a car with 170k on the clock. Who can argue with that?

I just read that Mainesails battery monitor failed on one of his cells, he caught it in time but had he not.... Until the controls are better for lithium we're watching and I think that since we don't heavily discharge our very large bank the solar and the generator will get the job done for a lot less then lithium. We consume under 130 Ah per 24 hours and will be adding 4 325 watt panels that can hopefully bring SOC to 100% daily. If it can then we should see 6~7~8 years from an $1,100 battery bank.

That AB looks like a sweet ride but I think the commute to Florida is going to take much longer than VW. At least the Ten-Tom waterway is available

Seriously, will the AB become Joli's tender? If so, do you have davits?

[BeauV]

I am on the ferry right now returning from the VW Settlement first step with my Touareg. $3.8k today and then wait for EPA TO APPROVE the software fix.

I love my Touareg and want to keep it. Another $3.8k comes with the fix. (They previously sent us $2k)

Total pay out to us is $9771 and they claim they can fix it without impact and we get to keep the vehicle.

If not they have to buy this one back. (I wonder if I can just keep it if they CANT fix it?)

Kim, your engine is Gen 2 isn't it? They thought they could fix it. We have a Gen 1 engine and they have already said they can't fix ours. What a shame, a diesel makes so much sense for certain types of vehicles. Word is they are now going after Chrysler and BMW. The day of the diesel car is over....

NOx doesn't seem like an insurmountable problem.

It's a really REALLY hard problem when you have to beat gas engine mileage and exhaust emissions. There is a lot of junk in Diesel fuel that you have to take out in the car's engine. (Vs blowing it out the exhaust pipe.) One way to think about this is to consider that when they refine oil into gasoline they take out a lot of the stuff that is causing VW problems. Getting the junk out at the refinery is better than trying to equip every car to get the junk out while driving. Big rig trucks face a similar problem but have far looser regulation.

When one compares the diesel Porche Cayenne with the similar gasoline version, it's pretty clear that they are very very close. I'm guessing that once they "fix" the 2nd gen diesel engine, the gasoline version may actually have more power and better mileage. I do love the massive torque of the diesel, but VW clearly broke the law and the only reason these cars are as good as they are is because they cheated.

[Joli]

As C continues to climb the viability of electric cars makes more sense, battery development is occurring at a staggering rate. I'm not there as a potential EV buyer, I drive too many miles in a short time, charge times are still to long for me. I'll drive non-stop Cleveland to West Palm Florida, only stopping for coffee and fuel. With the TDI Touareg that's one stop in Atlanta.

So who is considering LiFePO for their boats? We still use 6 & 8 volt golf cart batteries and with enough house bank don't see more then 11/13% draw down in 24 hours. It doesn't make sense for us.

Joli,

Stan did a LiFePO stack for his Cal-40. It's three years into cruising Mexico, when they aren't sailing big boats. So far, working great. However, it took a Stan-Custom-Controller to get it to the safety levels he wanted. We re-loaded with good old AGM batteries last time around. (Trojan golf cart batteries) They'll last at least 5-7 years. By then I'm hoping LiFePO will be productized and we'll shift.

What are you going to do with the TDI Touareg? The Admiral and I were talking about it on our way to the airport today. (She's off to NYC to help a friend.) We like the Cayanne TDI and don't really want to give it up, but if they don't get these 3L engines "fixed" we will have to turn it in. In current form, they're not street legal. We were having the "do we buy a Tesla Model-X or some oil burner?" discussion.

We're going to trade in the TDI for this!

http://abinflatables.com/boats/profile-a13/

No complaints about what VW is offering, it looks like about $29k for a car with 170k on the clock. Who can argue with that?

I just read that Mainesails battery monitor failed on one of his cells, he caught it in time but had he not.... Until the controls are better for lithium we're watching and I think that since we don't heavily discharge our very large bank the solar and the generator will get the job done for a lot less then lithium. We consume under 130 Ah per 24 hours and will be adding 4 325 watt panels that can hopefully bring SOC to 100% daily. If it can then we should see 6~7~8 years from an $1,100 battery bank.

That AB looks like a sweet ride but I think the commute to Florida is going to take much longer than VW. At least the Ten-Tom waterway is available

Seriously, will the AB become Joli's tender? If so, do you have davits?

It'll be our tender. No davit's, chocks on the foredeck between the mast and the inner forestay. That I is about 15', so it should fit.

[Orestes Munn]

I am on the ferry right now returning from the VW Settlement first step with my Touareg. $3.8k today and then wait for EPA TO APPROVE the software fix.

I love my Touareg and want to keep it. Another $3.8k comes with the fix. (They previously sent us $2k)

Total pay out to us is $9771 and they claim they can fix it without impact and we get to keep the vehicle.

If not they have to buy this one back. (I wonder if I can just keep it if they CANT fix it?)

Kim, your engine is Gen 2 isn't it? They thought they could fix it. We have a Gen 1 engine and they have already said they can't fix ours. What a shame, a diesel makes so much sense for certain types of vehicles. Word is they are now going after Chrysler and BMW. The day of the diesel car is over....

NOx doesn't seem like an insurmountable problem.

It's a really REALLY hard problem when you have to beat gas engine mileage and exhaust emissions. There is a lot of junk in Diesel fuel that you have to take out in the car's engine. (Vs blowing it out the exhaust pipe.) One way to think about this is to consider that when they refine oil into gasoline they take out a lot of the stuff that is causing VW problems. Getting the junk out at the refinery is better than trying to equip every car to get the junk out while driving. Big rig trucks face a similar problem but have far looser regulation.

When one compares the diesel Porche Cayenne with the similar gasoline version, it's pretty clear that they are very very close. I'm guessing that once they "fix" the 2nd gen diesel engine, the gasoline version may actually have more power and better mileage. I do love the massive torque of the diesel, but VW clearly broke the law and the only reason these cars are as good as they are is because they cheated.

Great explanation. Thanks.

[Rob McAlpine]

I used to have a dual fuel pickup, primary fuel was propane, with regular gas tank for backup. When I ran on propane, every oil change the oil looked brand new.

The only measureable exhaust products from natural gas fueled cars are water and CO2. Clean fuel, clean exhaust.

[Orestes Munn]

I used to have a dual fuel pickup, primary fuel was propane, with regular gas tank for backup. When I ran on propane, every oil change the oil looked brand new.

The only measureable exhaust products from natural gas fueled cars are water and CO2. Clean fuel, clean exhaust.

Lots of buses around here run on it. Much more healthy and pleasant to ride a bicycle behind than diesels.

[Panope]

When one compares the diesel Porche Cayenne with the similar gasoline version, it's pretty clear that they are very very close. I'm guessing that once they "fix" the 2nd gen diesel engine, the gasoline version may actually have more power and better mileage.

Especially when we consider that a gallon of Deisel is actually "bigger" than a gallon of gasoline. Bigger energy content, Bigger carbon emissions, and I assume it takes a bigger amount of crude to make a gallon of Deisel than a gallon of gas.

We really should compare the effeciency of fuels by some other metric like miles per BTU or Miles per Carbon emission.

Make no mistake, there are real reasons that a deisel is more efficient than a gas burner, like higher compression ratio and lower pumping losses (no throttle plate to force air past).

Using miles per GALLON makes deisel appear more efficient better than it actually is.

Steve

[LarryHoward]

When one compares the diesel Porche Cayenne with the similar gasoline version, it's pretty clear that they are very very close. I'm guessing that once they "fix" the 2nd gen diesel engine, the gasoline version may actually have more power and better mileage.

Especially when we consider that a gallon of Deisel is actually "bigger" than a gallon of gasoline. Bigger energy content, Bigger carbon emissions, and I assume it takes a bigger amount of crude to make a gallon of Deisel than a gallon of gas.

We really should compare the effeciency of fuels by some other metric like miles per BTU or Miles per Carbon emission.

Make no mistake, there are real reasons that a deisel is more efficient than a gas burner, like higher compression ratio and lower pumping losses (no throttle plate to force air past).

Using miles per GALLON makes deisel appear more efficient better than it actually is.

Steve

Of course, if you insist on doing that, you have to account for all of the costs of each mode of energy, including costs of the grid, heavy metal pollution/recycling for batteries, electrical generation pollution, petroleum drilling impacts, etc.

What we don't do well is to account for the social costs of transportation. No one questions the efficiency and impact of good public transport or rail service but politically, we want Amtrak and the various "metro" systems to pay their tire costs while we treat freeways as a "public" investment.

[Jamie]

I am on the ferry right now returning from the VW Settlement first step with my Touareg. $3.8k today and then wait for EPA TO APPROVE the software fix.

I love my Touareg and want to keep it. Another $3.8k comes with the fix. (They previously sent us $2k)

Total pay out to us is $9771 and they claim they can fix it without impact and we get to keep the vehicle.

If not they have to buy this one back. (I wonder if I can just keep it if they CANT fix it?)

Kim, your engine is Gen 2 isn't it? They thought they could fix it. We have a Gen 1 engine and they have already said they can't fix ours. What a shame, a diesel makes so much sense for certain types of vehicles. Word is they are now going after Chrysler and BMW. The day of the diesel car is over....

NOx doesn't seem like an insurmountable problem.

It's a really REALLY hard problem when you have to beat gas engine mileage and exhaust emissions. There is a lot of junk in Diesel fuel that you have to take out in the car's engine. (Vs blowing it out the exhaust pipe.) One way to think about this is to consider that when they refine oil into gasoline they take out a lot of the stuff that is causing VW problems. Getting the junk out at the refinery is better than trying to equip every car to get the junk out while driving. Big rig trucks face a similar problem but have far looser regulation.

When one compares the diesel Porche Cayenne with the similar gasoline version, it's pretty clear that they are very very close. I'm guessing that once they "fix" the 2nd gen diesel engine, the gasoline version may actually have more power and better mileage. I do love the massive torque of the diesel, but VW clearly broke the law and the only reason these cars are as good as they are is because they cheated.

Yeah, the way it was explained to me was to get fuel efficiency, power and less soot, you need high combustion temps and a lean AFR, which creates NOx. Cool things down to fix the NOx, then you get soot and poor thermal efficiency .You can counter this to some extent with the horse piss (Urea) injection systems, but I think it's still hard to meet US standards. Also I believe that US fuel is generally poorer quality (higher sulfur...etc..) than that in the EU.

Then take a look at newer gas powerplants like the Ford Ecotech twin turbo units - I rented a F-150 with one and got 20-23mpg on a full sized truck and by 1,500 rpm the first turbo was fully spooled - very diesel like performance and few of the diesel issues. It's Mazda tech, so should be reasonably reliable.

[Panope]

When one compares the diesel Porche Cayenne with the similar gasoline version, it's pretty clear that they are very very close. I'm guessing that once they "fix" the 2nd gen diesel engine, the gasoline version may actually have more power and better mileage.

Especially when we consider that a gallon of Deisel is actually "bigger" than a gallon of gasoline. Bigger energy content, Bigger carbon emissions, and I assume it takes a bigger amount of crude to make a gallon of Deisel than a gallon of gas.

We really should compare the effeciency of fuels by some other metric like miles per BTU or Miles per Carbon emission.

Make no mistake, there are real reasons that a deisel is more efficient than a gas burner, like higher compression ratio and lower pumping losses (no throttle plate to force air past).

Using miles per GALLON makes deisel appear more efficient better than it actually is.

Steve

Of course, if you insist on doing that, you have to account for all of the costs of each mode of energy, including costs of the grid, heavy metal pollution/recycling for batteries, electrical generation pollution, petroleum drilling impacts, etc.

What we don't do well is to account for the social costs of transportation. No one questions the efficiency and impact of good public transport or rail service but politically, we want Amtrak and the various "metro" systems to pay their tire costs while we treat freeways as a "public" investment.

Ha! I did not even try to figure out the dollar costs. Waaaaay to many unknown variables for this feeble mind. (taxes, incentives, loopholes, kickbacks, payoffs, bribes.........)

In my small, unusually liberal town, we have no problem subsidizing a nice public bus system. Unfortunately nobody uses it.

I'm guilty as the rest: I've lived here my whole life and it was one month ago that I rode the bus for the first and only time. It was great. I walked from my house, caught a bus to where Panope was temporarily moored, then delivered the boat home. Bus ride was about 35 miles and cost $1.50 (includes an all day pass). Bus had an average of 3 riders aboard, never more than 5.

I asked the driver if the bike racks (on the bumper) ever fill up. He said no, and if they did, riders are welcome to bring their cycles inside the bus.

It got me thinking about not having a car at all.

Now, how am I gonna move that refrigerator?

Steve

[BeauV]

I'm with Larry on this. We as a society broadly do a VERY poor job of transferring the true costs of things back through the supply chain. We're slowly getting better; for example, you're now required to pay for the disposal of the engine oil you've used when you get an oil change. We used to use it to keep the dust down on my Grampa's gravel driveway . We don't burden the nuclear industry with the lifetime cost of disposing of their waste. We don't burden the companies who make plastic bags with the cost of cleaning up the massive mess that is accumulating on the windward side of S. Pacific islands. There's a broad, nearly ubiquitous, pattern here. That pattern is maintained by a desire to lower initial costs of things and push responsibility for the subsequent mess off to governments.

I completely agree with Larry that building Interstate Highways was a gross gift to the auto and petroleum industries. But, centuries before the same government made a similar gift (of land and money) to the railroads. We are currently making similar gifts to the airline industry and various professional sports teams. Our politicians, with the blessing of the voters who repeatedly elect them, are putting city after city into debt to build airports, football stadiums, and various other pieces of infrastructure for the benefit of companies like United Airlines, the SF 49ers, etc.... One could consider the debt payments on those stadiums to be a "waste product" of a football team which is being pushed off onto local government.

[TheOffice]

I've always been amused that the interstate highway system was build to further our national defense. Ten percent of all jobs are auto related.

Beau, you are correct about subsidies that make no sense. For the cost of the DC Metro there could have been free bus service for a century. But affluent people don't ride buses in DC. And they don't like having to pass them every 1/4 mile.

[Orestes Munn]

I've always been amused that the interstate highway system was build to further our national defense. Ten percent of all jobs are auto related.

Beau, you are correct about subsidies that make no sense. For the cost of the DC Metro there could have been free bus service for a century. But affluent people don't ride buses in DC. And they don't like having to pass them every 1/4 mile.

Having the only capital of even a medium-sized industrialized nation without a metropolitan railway system would be carrying Exceptionalism to an extreme.

[kdh]

Stan did a LiFePO stack for his Cal-40. It's three years into cruising Mexico, when they aren't sailing big boats. So far, working great. However, it took a Stan-Custom-Controller to get it to the safety levels he wanted. We re-loaded with good old AGM batteries last time around. (Trojan golf cart batteries) They'll last at least 5-7 years. By then I'm hoping LiFePO will be productized and we'll shift.

Stan published some notes on his setup. Not surprisingly, it's well thought out.

http://honeynav.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/LFP-battery-Stan-Honey-notes.pdf

To me the issue with LiFePO is they don't like to be stored at full charge, which replaces the bother of AGMs liking to be topped off periodically with another bother of planning around not storing for long periods fully charged.

[kimbottles]

I am on the ferry right now returning from the VW Settlement first step with my Touareg. $3.8k today and then wait for EPA TO APPROVE the software fix.

I love my Touareg and want to keep it. Another $3.8k comes with the fix. (They previously sent us $2k)

Total pay out to us is $9771 and they claim they can fix it without impact and we get to keep the vehicle.

If not they have to buy this one back. (I wonder if I can just keep it if they CANT fix it?)

Kim, your engine is Gen 2 isn't it? They thought they could fix it. We have a Gen 1 engine and they have already said they can't fix ours. What a shame, a diesel makes so much sense for certain types of vehicles. Word is they are now going after Chrysler and BMW. The day of the diesel car is over....

Yes, Gen 2 TDI.

[LarryHoward]

I'm with Larry on this. We as a society broadly do a VERY poor job of transferring the true costs of things back through the supply chain. We're slowly getting better; for example, you're now required to pay for the disposal of the engine oil you've used when you get an oil change. We used to use it to keep the dust down on my Grampa's gravel driveway . We don't burden the nuclear industry with the lifetime cost of disposing of their waste. We don't burden the companies who make plastic bags with the cost of cleaning up the massive mess that is accumulating on the windward side of S. Pacific islands. There's a broad, nearly ubiquitous, pattern here. That pattern is maintained by a desire to lower initial costs of things and push responsibility for the subsequent mess off to governments.

I completely agree with Larry that building Interstate Highways was a gross gift to the auto and petroleum industries. But, centuries before the same government made a similar gift (of land and money) to the railroads. We are currently making similar gifts to the airline industry and various professional sports teams. Our politicians, with the blessing of the voters who repeatedly elect them, are putting city after city into debt to build airports, football stadiums, and various other pieces of infrastructure for the benefit of companies like United Airlines, the SF 49ers, etc.... One could consider the debt payments on those stadiums to be a "waste product" of a football team which is being pushed off onto local government.

Beau,

On the highways, call it a gift to "expansion" of the population across the country. Paving the wagon roads and cow paths was probably one of the cheaper ways of enabling a broader distribution of the population. I suspect any tech, petro, steam, electric or wind up clock springs would have similarly benefitted. Oil benefitted because it was abundent, stable and energy dense. Many other countries, with rail infrastructure in place, taxed the crap out of oil (and still do) but even then, cars, highways and air have supplemented much of the existing rail. Have you tried the "privatized" British rail system lately? Expensive, off schedule and inconvenient unless you are a tourist who can run on their schedule.

I guess economies subsidize things they find valuable.. easier transportation, sports centers that are assumed to bring in economic growth, "clean" power and the rest. Requiring every industry to be fully self supporting across the life cycle means you allow the market to establish relative value based on willingness to pay without further guidance.

[BeauV]

Larry,

Fair warning, I'm in a grumpy mood, but despite that I'll give you the Highways as some sort of rational subsidy (like the railroads a century before.)

But!! Football stadiums???!!??? What possible rationale can one give for subsidizing the NFL??

Ok, I'll go have another glass of wine dull the pain of having done too much manual labor.

B

[LarryHoward]

Larry,

Fair warning, I'm in a grumpy mood, but despite that I'll give you the Highways as some sort of rational subsidy (like the railroads a century before.)

But!! Football stadiums???!!??? What possible rationale can one give for subsidizing the NFL??

Ok, I'll go have another glass of wine dull the pain of having done too much manual labor.

B

How may cities have opened bond issues, provided special taxing districts, etc for various sports and entertainment venues. Arguement always seems to be the "trickle down" to economic health of the district. I know it's a lot harder to
Find parking and a decent table at a restaurant in Fells Point the day of an O's Game and Nation's stadium in D.C. Sparked economic revival on the Anacostia Waterfront, turning a slum into an economic powerhouse.

Was it worth it to D.C.? D.C. council seems to think so. Same with Baltimore and Camden Yards and Ravens stadium.

Was it worth it to Nevada to make deals with Musk for the Mega factory a mile from a famous whorehouse?

[Tucky]

Coming to all this a little late. Two thoughts-

Steve, I read that the difference in "percentage of a barrel" between gasoline and diesel is 20%, i.e. 40 gallons of diesel or 50 gallons of oil from a barrel. Beau, I'm not sure Tesla has any advantage at all in the low cost auto market-I think it is way easier to learn electric motors than to learn efficient manufacturing of complex vehicles, and all cars share a lot of complex structure. I'm not sure Tesla has much of a software advantage, even. Friend just bought a Bolt.

I think the whole auto industry is going through the radial tire problem. Especially here in winter salt country, the improvements in steel are incredible. The muffler shops have all had to become general service shops. Cars just last so long, and as the gasoline consumption graph shows, the improvements are incremental. My bare bones 2007 Honda Civic went 200,000 miles in ten years with only one non-scheduled service for a part in the air-conditioner. No exhaust work. It would still be here today but for a minor accident that bent the hood in a way that caused insurance to just write me a check. Depreciation less than $1,000 per year for 20,000 miles. My math is probably screwy but isn't that $.05 per mile?

I think this does make the economics of car sharing really different than in the past. I expect to own a Tundra as long as I own my boat and fun car. I've got the grand kids birthday present in the back right now- that won't fit in no car:-)

[BeauV]

Jessie, we'll find out if Tesla can build in volume in the next few years. I can't guess.

I would point out that the Asian and German car manufacturers regularly build new factories (as do the cloud data center guys) rather than re-tooling old factories. When I asked a BMW exec about this years ago he said that it almost never paid to incrementally modify a high volume line, they are built to a certain technology/run-rate etc... When I listen to my son-in-law talk about how they are building the Model-3 line, I do worry. Then I remember that unlike their competitors, Tesla has started with a much higher level of sophistication in the IT tech and electronics world. Does anyone else have an over the air update of their car? Nope. Yesterday, my car informed me of another upgrade. Worked perfectly. As cars become rolling platforms for electronics (after all what are you going to do in there while the computer is driving?) doesn't the competitive landscape change to electronics and IT infrastructure?

I think high mechanical reliability is a given. Tesla has matched or beaten any car we've owned for that (so far). The battle is now over high electronic and software reliability, a field in which Tesla is clearly years (maybe even decades) ahead. Our Porsche Cayenne has had two navigation computers replaced in 28,000 miles, software updates are done by taking it to a dealership where they re-flash the ROM or via a CD-ROM drive in the back. This is 1970s technology and it's fragile. Chevy is no better, probably worse.

Ford just fired their CEO and put the tech guy in as CEO because the Board couldn't get the company to get off its ass and get going on what they see as the most important area of automobile design and manufacturing - electronics/software.

[Olaf Hart]

When one compares the diesel Porche Cayenne with the similar gasoline version, it's pretty clear that they are very very close. I'm guessing that once they "fix" the 2nd gen diesel engine, the gasoline version may actually have more power and better mileage.

Especially when we consider that a gallon of Deisel is actually "bigger" than a gallon of gasoline. Bigger energy content, Bigger carbon emissions, and I assume it takes a bigger amount of crude to make a gallon of Deisel than a gallon of gas.

We really should compare the effeciency of fuels by some other metric like miles per BTU or Miles per Carbon emission.

Make no mistake, there are real reasons that a deisel is more efficient than a gas burner, like higher compression ratio and lower pumping losses (no throttle plate to force air past).

Using miles per GALLON makes deisel appear more efficient better than it actually is.

Steve

Of course, if you insist on doing that, you have to account for all of the costs of each mode of energy, including costs of the grid, heavy metal pollution/recycling for batteries, electrical generation pollution, petroleum drilling impacts, etc.

What we don't do well is to account for the social costs of transportation. No one questions the efficiency and impact of good public transport or rail service but politically, we want Amtrak and the various "metro" systems to pay their tire costs while we treat freeways as a "public" investment.

Ha! I did not even try to figure out the dollar costs. Waaaaay to many unknown variables for this feeble mind. (taxes, incentives, loopholes, kickbacks, payoffs, bribes.........)

In my small, unusually liberal town, we have no problem subsidizing a nice public bus system. Unfortunately nobody uses it.

I'm guilty as the rest: I've lived here my whole life and it was one month ago that I rode the bus for the first and only time. It was great. I walked from my house, caught a bus to where Panope was temporarily moored, then delivered the boat home. Bus ride was about 35 miles and cost $1.50 (includes an all day pass). Bus had an average of 3 riders aboard, never more than 5.

I asked the driver if the bike racks (on the bumper) ever fill up. He said no, and if they did, riders are welcome to bring their cycles inside the bus.

It got me thinking about not having a car at all.

Now, how am I gonna move that refrigerator?

Steve

We use your bus all the time in PT, It's great.

[Olaf Hart]

Larry,

Fair warning, I'm in a grumpy mood, but despite that I'll give you the Highways as some sort of rational subsidy (like the railroads a century before.)

But!! Football stadiums???!!??? What possible rationale can one give for subsidizing the NFL??

Ok, I'll go have another glass of wine dull the pain of having done too much manual labor.

B

Ask the roman emperors why they subsidised sport and contests, it keeps the people happy and distracted ...

[BeauV]

Larry,

Fair warning, I'm in a grumpy mood, but despite that I'll give you the Highways as some sort of rational subsidy (like the railroads a century before.)

But!! Football stadiums???!!??? What possible rationale can one give for subsidizing the NFL??

Ok, I'll go have another glass of wine dull the pain of having done too much manual labor.

B

Ask the roman emperors why they subsidised sport and contests, it keeps the people happy and distracted ...

Exactly, I just hate seeing my fellow citizens get "played".

[Rob McAlpine]

Larry,

Fair warning, I'm in a grumpy mood, but despite that I'll give you the Highways as some sort of rational subsidy (like the railroads a century before.)

But!! Football stadiums???!!??? What possible rationale can one give for subsidizing the NFL??

Ok, I'll go have another glass of wine dull the pain of having done too much manual labor.

B

A lot of the highway costs have been borne by the Highway Trust Fund, funded by gasoline and diesel taxes. In other words, it has largely been user funded. Is that still a subsidy?

To the extent that that has fallen short, it is largely due to politicians using the fund for non-highway related projects, i.e. mass transit, such as light rail.

[Panope]

Steve, I read that the difference in "percentage of a barrel" between gasoline and diesel is 20%, i.e. 40 gallons of diesel or 50 gallons...........

I am finding similar numbers: Burning a gallon of Deisel produces 15% more CO2 than burning a gallon of pure gasoline, and about 25% more CO2 than burning a gallon of E10 (they don't count the CO2 from the alcohol, but I don't know how much petroleum CO2 is produced from the process of making alcohol).

It sure looks like the roughly 20% better MPG of a deisel vehicle is negated by a similar increase of CO2 and a large increase in other pollutants.

However, the "Well to Wheels" costs (both $ and environmental) are difficult to measure accurately. I also have a hard time answering my questions about the refinement process. Are refineries free to make various ratios of deisel: kerosene: gasoline: naphtha: etc. or does the process "lock" them into certain ratios?

For the boat, I would swap my (heavy, noisy, great running) Yanmar deisel for a nearly silent Toyota Corolla gas ENGINE - in a heartbeat. Only one thing keeps me from making the switch: SAFETY.

Steve

[BeauV]

Larry,

Fair warning, I'm in a grumpy mood, but despite that I'll give you the Highways as some sort of rational subsidy (like the railroads a century before.)

But!! Football stadiums???!!??? What possible rationale can one give for subsidizing the NFL??

Ok, I'll go have another glass of wine dull the pain of having done too much manual labor.

B

A lot of the highway costs have been borne by the Highway Trust Fund, funded by gasoline and diesel taxes. In other words, it has largely been user funded. Is that still a subsidy?

To the extent that that has fallen short, it is largely due to politicians using the fund for non-highway related projects, i.e. mass transit, such as light rail.

It has "fallen short" by tens of billions. I can't find an exact report on uses like light-rail but in the source cited below it was only 10% of the total budget. Over the last few years, source, the general tax fund has subsidized about $35 billion to the highway fund. That still smells like a subsidy to me.

[BeauV]

Steve, I read that the difference in "percentage of a barrel" between gasoline and diesel is 20%, i.e. 40 gallons of diesel or 50 gallons...........

I am finding similar numbers: Burning a gallon of Deisel produces 15% more CO2 than burning a gallon of pure gasoline, and about 25% more CO2 than burning a gallon of E10 (they don't count the CO2 from the alcohol, but I don't know how much petroleum CO2 is produced from the process of making alcohol).

It sure looks like the roughly 20% better MPG of a deisel vehicle is negated by a similar increase of CO2 and a large increase in other pollutants.

However, the "Well to Wheels" costs (both $ and environmental) are difficult to measure accurately. I also have a hard time answering my questions about the refinement process. Are refineries free to make various ratios of deisel: kerosene: gasoline: naphtha: etc. or does the process "lock" them into certain ratios?

For the boat, I would swap my (heavy, noisy, great running) Yanmar deisel for a nearly silent Toyota Corolla gas ENGINE - in a heartbeat. Only one thing keeps me from making the switch: SAFETY.

Steve

Steve,

I'm on thin ice, and one of the guys here who work in the oil business will do a better job, but I believe that for every gallon of "crude" one can refine out various things. Think of it as dividing up the crude into its various component pieces. Here is a source to read about and here's a picture of what comes out of crude in 2016:



There is only about a 10% difference in energy density between Gasoline and Diesel. You can read up on it here. The graphic of it is below. Note LiIon batteries in the lower left and a few others with glancing at, like LPG and CNG. From this graph, we should figure out a way to burn Aluminum!



Fun stuff to read about, but having taken a look at this I'm pretty sure that the physics and pollution problems mean that gasoline will win out, again.

As to gasoline engines in boats, there are very very few "fires" these days because there are very few leaks. Back in the old days, things like float bowl valves in carburetors would stick open and the fuel would pour out. With computer controlled fuel injection that sort of thing just doesn't happen. Meaning that the remaining risk factors are around re-fueling, tanks, and hoses. You could deal with fuel lines by going all Areoquip race stuff. With on-deck fueling and proper grounding of the nozzle, I think the risks are pretty low. You don't see many gas stations aflame these days