Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

[BeauV]

All,

I read a fascinating prediction about electric cars replacing internal combustion engines and self-driving cars taking over by the 2030s. Unlike many of these things, this article has some serious factual content. I've checked on a few of the numbers to ensure I'm not being hornswoggled and they look right.

Basically, the argument for an EV is that it's simpler and therefore cheaper in volume. There are over 2,000 moving parts in a gasoline engine and less than 20 in an EV engine. The resultant reduction in maintenance costs turns out to be a big part of lifetime ownership costs. In the face of people's obvious resistance to the idea that we'll all be driving (or riding in - if self-driving really takes off) EVs eventually, the author goes through a number of other markets to show what happens when they are disrupted by cheaper alternatives. No argument based on environment is made, just cost.

I think you might find [urlhttps://medium.com/@sethmiller_59231/this-is-how-big-oil-will-die-38b843bd4fe0]THIS[/url] interesting. (<-- click on the "THIS")

[VALIS]

Interesting article, Beau. It doesn't address the intrinsic energy-carrying capacity of batteries vs petroleum, and that is still a big deal for some of us. I tend to do a lot of long-distance driving, as well as many short trips in areas (coastal Sonoma County) where there are very few conveniently-located gas stations (let alone charging stations). Miles per tank, or miles per battery-charge are critical. When fast-charging stations become more available, battery capacity improves further, and charging times are reduced, then the cost/complexity factors discussed in the article will be more important. Until then, the utility factors will dominate for people like me.

In many ways, you can compare electric boat problems and electric car issues. A daysailor is similar to a city driver in that electric drive technology more easily meets their needs. A long-distance sailor, and long-distance drivers are both far from the charging infrastructure, and because the energy density of diesel fuel (or gasoline) is so much greater than batteries that there's no way an electric drive can compete on a level playing field.

[Panope]

Could happen. I'll voice some counter arguments:

-Much of the energy needed to recharge all those eclectic cars will come from fossil fuel.

-A cheaper (much cheaper) transportation system already exists (mass transit), yet people roundly reject it because they REALLY like their cars.

-People in rural areas may never have access to an electric, driver-less taxi service.

Death of big oil? Maybe.

Slow decline of big oil? More likely.

Steve

[kimbottles]

Actually the best transportation is BICYCLE!!!
Certainly the most efficient, and think of the HEALTH benefits!

[LarryHoward]

Beau,

Look in the mirror. Your georgeous Tesla is a "city car". You Dino destroying Cayanne is your road car.

Also urban areas? You bet. Small electrics (or zip car electrics) will become the norm. We are already seeing urban cores in Europe and Asia making conventional cars unwelcome, if not banned.

For those of us in the country? Going to be very hard to put in infrastructure to support electrics without a standard high amperage charger. While you can plug a Model 90 into a 110v, 15A outlet, you don't get any usable charge from it-even overnight. A fully developed refueling infrastructure is required.

Going to be interesting to see where the Market prices used Teala's now that they have walked back the guaranteed buy back program.

Steve. What mass transit needs is for us all to understand the benefits it brings and market price it for success. The push to make it pay its own way is terribly flawed. Price it so that you have to really want to have your vehicle in the urban centers. Look at Manhattan. You don't consider owning or commuting in a personal car there. Subways, busses, a cab or a sedan/Uber are all mass transit and the default option. You use trains to get on and off the island.

[Olaf Hart]

Actually the best transportation is BICYCLE!!!n
Certainly the most efficient, and think of the HEALTH benefits!

Safe bicycle pathways and electric pedal bicycles are the future in urban settings.
Particularly if they are flat.

[BeauV]

Point taken on the Urban vs Rural question for current electric cars. Two responses:
1) 62.7% of the US population currently lives in Urban areas and that percentage is growing. Expected to reach well over 2/3 of the US population by 2020. (Source)
2) Current electric cars are at the beginning of their development cycle. Internal combustion cars are at the end of over 100 years of refinement. Improvements in electric cars are still growing rapidly (compare Lead Acid EVs of 15 years ago to LiIon EVs now). I won't predict future battery technology, but I think it'd be unwise to make big plans (like building oil pipelines) on the basis of current technology. The range of an EV is about the same as many cars/trucks now. What isn't the same is recharge rate.

I doubt that EVs will kill off all Internal Combustion engines as soon as they guy predicts it, but the "bad news" for oil producers happens a LOT sooner than the "kill off" point. It starts to happen in a big way when demand for oil drops by 10-20 percent. That could easily happen within 10 years. Having lived with a Tesla Model S for a year or so, it is clearly both the best and the most economical large luxury sedan we've ever owned; we have owned BMW 7 series, MBZ S class, etc... If Tesla does to the $35,000 sedan market what it has done to the $100,000 sedan market, they could crush some folks. The high-end MBZ and BMW sales of their largest sedans are way down, and this in on a national level. I see little reason that EVs won't clobber the volume sedan market for the 2/3 of the US that is Urban and do so much sooner than most people think.

Regarding the used Tesla price, I don't think their buy-back had anything to do with purchases of these cars. What has been a worry is battery life. But as the original article says, it turns out that the batteries on long service Prius and Teslas are lasting much much longer than originally estimated. This is driving the total lifetime cost of ownership into the cellar.

Larry, you're right about an 110v 15amp circuit for charge times, but the same thing is true if you try to dry your clothes with that circuit. If you just plug your Tesla into the 240v outlet for your electric drying you get pretty good re-charge times. The key point on recharge time is: Can you do your normal daily drive with the battery and recharge overnight? Here's the real data: average commute time in the US is 26min each way, only 3% of commuters have commutes as long as 50 miles each way. The current Tesla will handle 100 miles round trip per day no sweat, it'll actually do twice that. (Source)

What this means is that the range concerns Paul is expressing are really outliers or uses that only come up a few times a year. For those, there are really good car rental companies. These are things like family vacations, weekend races out of town (by more than 75 miles), and long road trips like Kim enjoys. For all the rest it doesn't seem to be a real problem, just a worry. I do need an SUV for towing the Moore. That's a use case that isn't served by any EV yet.

I'm surprised none of you commented on the economics of self-driving cars which people don't "own". The vast majority of my Urban employees don't own cars and don't plan to. Frankly, I'm not sure I'll own a car in the future, other than the Morgan. If EV cars result in a total cost of ownership that is 1/2 or 1/3 cheaper as predicted, that's one thing. But when the thing has twice or three times the utilization, the total cost of ownership will be only 15-20 percent of owning your own car. We're not "normal", but our driveway has $373,000 worth of vehicles sitting in it. One pickup truck, one SUV, two sedans and a sports car. (I'm not counting the Morgan) It's pretty clear that I can get an Uber today for a fraction of the cost of supporting the depreciation and maintenance on that fleet of cars/trucks. We old folks won't do this, but our kids don't seem to be as attached to cars as a way of proving their attractiveness to others.

[LarryHoward]

Bias,

Your source for "urban" is the census. It ray, where they define "urban" as 200 people living in proximity. The actual stats you cite are for "cities and incorporated areas." Hard to argue that every incorporated area is ripe for self driving electrics. When I speak of urban, I'm referring to highly developed metropolitan areas and I've already stipulated that single passenger/single trip vehicles don't make sense there.

I use the 110V/15 A as it is the only standard plug you will universally find in this country. Until EV infrastructure makes plugging in at least close to the convenience of Dino fueled vehicles, there will continue to be significant push back.

I know you love your Tesla but JDPowers says they suck from a quality standpoint. To become mainstream, they need to be a lot better. http://www.jdpower.com/cars/articles/jd ... e-problems

As to the "self driving electrics", maybe. Particularly if we get serious about congestion and air quality. Can you imagine NY with silent taxis and no horns?

[JoeP]

The change over to evs may come quickly in developed countries but the infrastructure required for them to be useful in 3rd world countries may not be available for some time so I think internal combustion engines will still be built for those markets until the infrastructure catches up. Self driving cars may be a great boon for 3rd world countries though as "shared ownership" (government, corporate, etc) will make point to point direct transportation available to more people.

[floating dutchman]

Electric cars are here to stay, and in the foreseeable future they will out number ICE cars but not completely replace them.

We were looking at the Nissan leaf at work the other day, only because they are coming into New Zealand 2nd hand at an affordable price, they have limited range.
One of my work mates said that he would have to charge it several times a day with the way he used the car, when I got the calculator out based on his annual mileage it worked to be 2 1/2 charges a week!

In our family with two cars one could easily be an electric car and in 5 or so years when the wife's car comes time to replace an electric will be looked at.

My car does a 200 mile round trip as a commute and takes the family on holiday, and I don't have the budget for a Tesla or a Lucid Air so that will have to stay ICE, for now.

When people get over the whole "takes too long to recharge" and realize that you never have to go to a gas station and it refuels while you sleep at night and the fact that that flash Lexus you just bought with 300 HP and sport suspension never actually leaves city limits they will take off, But people still want to buy ocean going yachts when all they ever do is day-sails too so maybe I'm wrong.

They are getting better and cheaper though.

[BeauV]

Bias,

Your source for "urban" is the census. It ray, where they define "urban" as 200 people living in proximity. The actual stats you cite are for "cities and incorporated areas." Hard to argue that every incorporated area is ripe for self driving electrics. When I speak of urban, I'm referring to highly developed metropolitan areas and I've already stipulated that single passenger/single trip vehicles don't make sense there.

I use the 110V/15 A as it is the only standard plug you will universally find in this country. Until EV infrastructure makes plugging in at least close to the convenience of Dino fueled vehicles, there will continue to be significant push back.

I know you love your Tesla but JDPowers says they suck from a quality standpoint. To become mainstream, they need to be a lot better. http://www.jdpower.com/cars/articles/jd ... e-problems

As to the "self driving electrics", maybe. Particularly if we get serious about congestion and air quality. Can you imagine NY with silent taxis and no horns?

Larry, toss the census data if you like (I don't agree with your narrowing to giant cities - but it doesn't matter), the commute time required can be reached with existing Teslas on a single charge each night for over 90% of drivers. Floating Dutchman's friend is typical. Folks imagine a long trip that they never take. It's like cruising boats. All set up to go places they never go. If the car can cover even 80% of the commuting it's probably going to win. Will you really buy a car that costs twice as much for a trip you're only taking once a year or ever six months? Seriously?

While I agree that 110v outlets are the most common, that isn't what I was saying or the point. You only need a single 240v outlet to solve the problem. In the 5 houses we have lived in, including the current one, there is a 240V outlet for one of the the cloths dryer, the domestic hot water heater, or the home heating. It's not like one is charging a fleet (yet). The fact that there are more of something that works poorly doesn't disprove the fact that there is ONE of the thing you actually need.

As to JD Powers, I read the link you sent that said that there weren't enough cars to do a proper sample. They then go on to say you should buy the report anyway because it's directionally correct - meaning it agrees with their bias and the desires of their primary market. Talk about bias! Usually, calling about half a million of your customers idiots is a bad idea - I wonder why Powers does it in public?

As to why we like our car. In the 15,000 miles we've owned it, it has had ZERO failures of any kind. We did have to put new front tires on it because I push it far too hard around corners. There as been zero maintenance beyond refilling the windshield wiper fluid. The software has been improved multiple times without failure or problem. This should be compared to our 750 BWM which went back to the shop three times during the same initial year and the 500 S MBZ that went to the shop twice. Both the German cars had failures with their electronics. There is no comparison between the three brands in our personal experience, but that's one customer. It is, however, the ONLY customer I actually care about.

BTW, Tesla doesn't release the data, but the 400,000 Model 3 units which people have pre-ordered, putting down a total of $400,000,000 dollars, is only the number that Tesla is willing to talk about following the launch of the pre-order offer. Yes, the deposit is refundable, but since the initial offer period internal sources say that the number has reached over 500,000. What this mean, despite various folks trying to believe it isn't happening, is that half a million people have put down over half a billion dollars of their own money for a car they've never seen. Does that sound like something folks would do if they didn't like the car they actually have seen? These are the real numbers, not some agency opinion, or my opinion, or yours. This unit volume will make Tesla a major player in the market in a year if they can ship the units.

Again, to the facts. The driving force for self-driving cars (and more importantly trucks) is that they keep an expensive asset moving. As you must know, long haul trucks are carefully managed to keep them moving hauling a load as often as possible. Individual car owners clearly aren't motivated the same way, but if a much more highly utilized self-driving car can deliever the ride for 1/4 of the price of driving one's own car, how long will people overpay. NYC is a great example of where we're headed. Rides on-demand are cheap there because there is high density. But self-driving will lower the cost so much lower density areas can achieve high utilization.

This is a financial decision, and young folks with access to ride-sharing and car-sharing are already making it. There are now multiple profitable car-sharing companies, ride-sharing companies are showing crazy growth rates. And old folks like me are saying: You'll pry my steering wheel out of my cold dead fingers. We're dynosaurs and the economics are showing that our desire to "own" a car is simply wrong. Unless one's rich enough to not care.

[TheOffice]

My wife is anxiously awaiting her Model 3 some time next year. She gets a free charge at work - but no free gas. And a much better parking spot!

Lost in all of the MPG discussion is the fact that without gas tax $$, there is no funding for roads and bridges. For now, the EVs get a free ride on our failing infrastructure.

The utility companies are seeking a small loss in revenue from home solar, and fear a bigger loss from it. EVs may offset some of that loss. Given that the average car is over 10 years old, the transition to EV will be a slow one.

Joel

[Tigger]

Just curious--have the various companies agreed on a standard recharging fitting, or are we looking at multiple 'dongles' based on what kind of vehicle one has?

[LarryHoward]

Just curious--have the various companies agreed on a standard recharging fitting, or are we looking at multiple 'dongles' based on what kind of vehicle one has?

At the car end, bring your own cord. At the supply side, the "standard" seems to be a 30/40 amp dryer outlet that can charge a Model S from zero to full in about 12 hours (225-315 miles depending on Model (60-100KW battery pack) speed, ambient conditions HVAC use and even tires). That is from a "zero state" which you would generally avoid.

Tesla can accept a fast charger option (may be standard in newer versions) but that requires a higher amp circuit and different plug to charge at 70 amps or so.

[VALIS]

Tesla can accept a fast charger option (may be standard in newer versions) but that requires a higher amp circuit and different plug to charge at 70 amps or so.

I just looked at Tesla's website for supercharging station info. Apparently it takes "as little as" 30 minutes to put enough charge into the battery to drive 170 miles. It takes over an hour to get the full 300-mile charge. It takes almost six hours with the "hi amp connector" home charger, and over eight hours with the standard 220V home charger.

That's not too attractive for my (apparently unusual) driving habits. I think I will wait for technology to advance a bit further. For what it's worth, I have a friend with a Tesla. He drives it in the San Francisco / Santa Rosa area, and he loves it.

[Panope]

Although the numbers will never be more than a rounding error, I predict that half decent electric conversion kits will become available with the next "doubling" of battery performance and halving of cost. Light pick-up trucks are perfect for this as they have large unused spaces under the bed and extra weight carrying capacity.

I only drive 5K miles per year and rarely more than 50 miles - round trip. Current battery technology would work fine for me.

No need to rush that hobby as I am on track for not needing to replace my small truck until 2058 (unless my daughter's future boyfriend borrows it to move his drumset and wraps it around a telephone pole).

Steve

[Orestes Munn]

Now there's a man who thinks strategically. Got the knucklehead boyfriend picked out and everything!

Our lives would be perfect for an electric vehicle too. Seems like every fifth car on the road around her is a Tesla. Saw a Fisker the other day and there are lots of other electrics too.

[BeauV]

CA is charging a tax on EVs that is part of your registration to pick up the lost revenue from Gas Tax from EVs. That's the obvious solution for all states.

I think folks are spending a lot of cycles focused on the occasional long trip, which needs to be carefully evaluated. With the over 90% of the commutes being covered completely by a 200 mile range, with plenty of range to spare, almost all cases are covered. With the re-charge time being less than a normal human's sleeping time, we've actually got the recharge time covered too. So how often do folks actually go more than 100 miles each way in one day? Seriously???

Having a Tesla that we've driven around for over a year this has come up exactly 4 times. In each case, we probably could have found a charger near our destination, and might even have made it there-n-back without a recharge by slowing down a little. Instead, we took the Diesel SUV. But, that was FOUR times in one year. Even if we'd rented a full-size car for those four occasions, it would have been much cheaper than running a Gas or Diesel car year around just to cover those four occasions.

As a result, the one and only reason for having the SUV is to tow the Moore24 and to take long trips to places like LA while MAYAN is down there.

I respectfully submit that folks aren't being particularly accurate about how often they actually travel more than 200 miles in a day.

[Panope]

My wife, Laura's commute is 160 miles round trip when she has to drive it (she flies about 1/2 the time). A Tesla 3 would work for this.

Currently, she drives a cheepy Prius ($21K) that gets 53 miles per gallon. We pay less than 2 dollars per gallon (Grocery store fuel points) so that works out to be about $10K for fuel assuming a quarter million mile life of the car.

The Tesla 3 costs $35K. I'm too lazy to figure out the electricity cost but even if it is free, It looks like the Prius might be a less expensive way to get to work.

That said, the coolness/green factor, plus the fact that the Tesla 3 is likely a nicer ride would have caused me to lobby heavily in favor of the Tesla, had it been available 3 years ago.

Steve

[VALIS]

Beau, we commute between Friday Harbor and Sonoma County, round trip, about twice a month. It's 900 miles each way. Sometimes we stop for the night in Oregon, but just as often I drive all night -- about 17 hours end to end. We do occasionally fly, but we usually drive. The electric car recharge times, and of course the lack of fast-charge stations, would be a major roadblock for us.

I suppose I could use an electric car at home in Friday Harbor. However, there I usually go two weeks or more between gas tank fill-ups, so there wouldn't be much of an incentive to go electric.

I'm not sure how the public charging station is going to scale to meet the need of large-scale EV usage. Everything's fine if you can recharge at home while you sleep, and the car has the range to meet your daily usage. But if these EVs have to recharge the same way cars on I-5 refuel, there will be some problems unless the recharge time drops by a factor of ten. Otherwise, there won't be room for all the cars if they have to plug in for an hour before they can continue down the highway. So, it's a problem. But problems get solved. That's what we do.

[BeauV]

Paul, you are a significant outlier. But we knew that, and it's in a good way!

[kdh]

Teslas are cool.

Batteries suck (not enough storage capacity or charge acceptance).

Americans are not logical with cars.

A Model S in ludicrous mode is nothing like a mid-engined Ferrari.

[BeauV]

Teslas are cool.

Batteries suck (not enough storage capacity or charge acceptance).

Americans are not logical with cars.

A Model S in ludicrous mode is nothing like a mid-engined Ferrari.

Agreed - batteries need to do at least a 2X, and there are a few potential technologies out there. Bill Joy (co-founder of Sun Micro) has poured a massive amount of his millions into a material that might do the trick. But Bill is always "certain it'll work" until he isn't. Material science is a terrible investment area.

Model S in ludicrous mode is like a Chrysler Hemi Cude: Amazing in a straight line, literally toss the coffee out of your cup. But you don't want to try and go around a corner. Fortunately, lateral G forces above about .3 cause passengers to twitch, and as those forces approach 1 G screaming is heard. So the car matches most folks who want to drive around with friends.

We on this board are outliers in various ways. I'm envious of your Ferrari-driving outlying.

[VALIS]

Paul, you are a significant outlier. But we knew that, and it's in a good way!

I've gotta put that on my business card:

Paul M. Elliott
Significant Outlier

But first I will need some cards. And a business. I stopped all that nonsense about fifteen years ago.

[Soñadora]

lots of words in this thread. I skimmed most of it. Short attention span, and all that. But, what I caught is spot on to how I've always seen this:

• We are in the early stages...sort of. Some of the first production cars were electric, so the idea was nascent a long time ago. However, considering how long ICEs have been in development, the development cycle for electric drivetrains has been phenomenal
• There is no question that electric powered vehicles are the way to go. We have stretched what an ICE can do to its absolute limits. Just too many inefficiencies compared to electric power
• The big issue is where to get the -e's to make this work. Yes, in the short term that may mean reliance on fossil fuels. (I presume the argument is that you have to charge the batteries via the grid - Elon is addressing that too. I've always felt we are far overdue for home-based power plants). But that will be a short term problem. Just like the problem of using Lithium for batteries. This is where the main focus will be in the coming decades and it will be solved. I have complete confidence we will see a standard sedan-sized vehicle able to go coast to coast on a single 'charge' (whatever a 'charge' may be) within 20 years. Probably less.

[Soñadora]

That said, on a personal note I feel like Geddy Lee's uncle with the Red Barchetta. I love ICEs. Especially the evocative ones. I've managed to afford a small taste of that. The Moose (my 2005 Jeep Unlimited Rubicon) is a joy. It has the engine from a tractor. It's soothing to work on because I can get to every square inch of the thing. It's topless (who doesn't like that?). And it can pretty much drive straight up a wall. It gets maybe 10mpg because I'm a kid and I have to have tires with teeth. I drive 5 miles to work. I fill it up once every two weeks. It's not a pain. My other ride is an old Porsche 951 (944 Turbo). It has an aluminum Audi-ish 2.5 motor. It has an 'Active Oil Circulation' system. And stomping on it in 3rd gear at 20 mph (when the turbo is spun up) is my own personal amusement park. It cost $60k new in 1988. I paid 1/10th that. It sounds wonderful when accelerating. Nothing like an old air-cooled flat 6 Porsche. All that clicking-clacking at idle is distinctive. And that exhaust when you get on it is a symphony.

I'd love to have the Morgan 3-wheeler with the Harley motor. They make an electric one too, which I'm sure is fun to drive but...eh. It's not a Harley. Yesterday a dude pulled up next to me in a '68 Malibu. All cam'd and header'd and totally tricked out. Such a gorgeous sound! And what's not to love about ProStock weekend match racing? I'll even admit to having a secret love of tractor pulls. But that's not so much the future except maybe for nostalgia. Watch a Formula-e race and you'll get a good idea of what the future holds. Racing has always been a harbinger of things to come.

When the time comes and I'm sitting on the stoop at the nursing home, I'll be grateful for the quiet whoosh of electric traffic.

[kimbottles]

That said, on a personal note I feel like Geddy Lee's uncle with the Red Barchetta. I love ICEs. Especially the evocative ones. I've managed to afford a small taste of that. The Moose (my 2005 Jeep Unlimited Rubicon) is a joy. It has the engine from a tractor. It's soothing to work on because I can get to every square inch of the thing. It's topless (who doesn't like that?). And it can pretty much drive straight up a wall. It gets maybe 10mpg because I'm a kid and I have to have tires with teeth. I drive 5 miles to work. I fill it up once every two weeks. It's not a pain. My other ride is an old Porsche 951 (944 Turbo). It has an aluminum Audi-ish 2.5 motor. It has an 'Active Oil Circulation' system. And stomping on it in 3rd gear at 20 mph (when the turbo is spun up) is my own personal amusement park. It cost $60k new in 1988. I paid 1/10th that. It sounds wonderful when accelerating. Nothing like an old air-cooled flat 6 Porsche. All that clicking-clacking at idle is distinctive. And that exhaust when you get on it is a symphony.

I'd love to have the Morgan 3-wheeler with the Harley motor. They make an electric one too, which I'm sure is fun to drive but...eh. It's not a Harley. Yesterday a dude pulled up next to me in a '68 Malibu. All cam'd and header'd and totally tricked out. Such a gorgeous sound! And what's not to love about ProStock weekend match racing? I'll even admit to having a secret love of tractor pulls. But that's not so much the future except maybe for nostalgia. Watch a Formula-e race and you'll get a good idea of what the future holds. Racing has always been a harbinger of things to come.

When the time comes and I'm sitting on the stoop at the nursing home, I'll be grateful for the quiet whoosh of electric traffic.

I already knew I liked you Rick, you above post just confirmed it!

[JoeP]

That said, on a personal note I feel like Geddy Lee's uncle with the Red Barchetta. I love ICEs. Especially the evocative ones. I've managed to afford a small taste of that. The Moose (my 2005 Jeep Unlimited Rubicon) is a joy. It has the engine from a tractor. It's soothing to work on because I can get to every square inch of the thing. It's topless (who doesn't like that?). And it can pretty much drive straight up a wall. It gets maybe 10mpg because I'm a kid and I have to have tires with teeth. I drive 5 miles to work. I fill it up once every two weeks. It's not a pain. My other ride is an old Porsche 951 (944 Turbo). It has an aluminum Audi-ish 2.5 motor. It has an 'Active Oil Circulation' system. And stomping on it in 3rd gear at 20 mph (when the turbo is spun up) is my own personal amusement park. It cost $60k new in 1988. I paid 1/10th that. It sounds wonderful when accelerating. Nothing like an old air-cooled flat 6 Porsche. All that clicking-clacking at idle is distinctive. And that exhaust when you get on it is a symphony.

I'd love to have the Morgan 3-wheeler with the Harley motor. They make an electric one too, which I'm sure is fun to drive but...eh. It's not a Harley. Yesterday a dude pulled up next to me in a '68 Malibu. All cam'd and header'd and totally tricked out. Such a gorgeous sound! And what's not to love about ProStock weekend match racing? I'll even admit to having a secret love of tractor pulls. But that's not so much the future except maybe for nostalgia. Watch a Formula-e race and you'll get a good idea of what the future holds. Racing has always been a harbinger of things to come.

When the time comes and I'm sitting on the stoop at the nursing home, I'll be grateful for the quiet whoosh of electric traffic.

I already knew I liked you Rick, you above post just confirmed it!

Yes! I understand the rationale for electric vehicles but I love ICEs. There is nothing like the sound of a healthy engine. My wife rolls her eyes when I roll down the windows of the car in order to catch the sound of an interesting vehicle but she understands because I get a kick out of it. When i was about 11 or 12 I used to back my dad''s '59 T-bird out of the garage and record it''s exhaust with the reel to reel as I revved it up.

On my computer at work I have a really good sound clip of an F4-U starting up. It is a glorious cough, sputter, roar! It only sounds god on good speakers with some bass capability. Luckily I have the only computer in the office with a decent sound card and a sub-woofer! I play it once in a while when I get in ahead of most of my co-workers.

I plan on getting a Borla exhaust setup for my FR-'S soon.

[VALIS]

I have complete confidence we will see a standard sedan-sized vehicle able to go coast to coast on a single 'charge' (whatever a 'charge' may be) within 20 years. Probably less.

Mr. Fusion? It's going to take something like that. OK, Mr. Fission would work too, but that seems unlikely. It's going to take some unforeseen breakthrough physics to do this with any kind of "battery" technology.

I am reminded of the TV news segment where the newscaster was gushing about this fellow who was using the "free energy" he got by charging an extra battery in his car while driving around town. When he got home he brought that battery inside and ran a lightbulb or something with it. Amazing! News at 11!

I'm not accusing anyone here of anything at all like that level of naivety, it's just that many people want so hard to *believe*. And I do think that before too long someone could build a science project vehicle out of lightweight unobtanium that carried a single cramped-inside driver across the country at low speed with one charge. But scaling that up to a crash-worthy vehicle that carries a family of four at highway speeds is another thing.

[SemiSalt]

As a measure, I think gallons per 100 miles is more useful that miles per gallon.

10 mpg = 10 gal/100 miles
20 mpg = 5 gal/100 miles
25 mpg = 4 gal/100 miles
33 mpg = 3 gal/100 miles
50 mpg = 2 gal/100 miles
100 mpg = 1 gal/100 miles.

It makes it pretty obvious that we are at, maybe past, the point of diminishing returns on energy consumption in anything like a general purpose car.