Scantlings

So, China has shut down travel into and out of Wuhan, a city of 11 million people. The reported death toll is 17, with at least 547 cases.

How nervous should we be?

Tigger wrote:So, China has shut down travel into and out of Wuhan, a city of 11 million people. The reported death toll is 17, with at least 547 cases.

How nervous should we be?

Put up a wall. The first North American case is just down the road in Everett.

Crap. And me headed to the boat show in Seattle on Tuesday. Better not cough at customs.

Ah, SARS redux....that was fun last time wasn't it?

I found it interesting that the last fist full of this sort of infection seems to have originated in Wild Game Markets. In this case, the closest known version of this coronavirus is found in a bat. Folks here are suggesting shutting down Wild Game Markets, but from what I know of China that would be unthinkable as a long term solution.

Australia’s last intact quarantine station is on nearby Bruny Island.

I happen to be the closest Public Health Physician to Bruny Island, thankfully I am now on the “retired” register...

Bruny Island is top of the list for mainland Chinese tourists...

We could organise a package tour, but unfortunately we get around 10 jet loads of Chinese tourists a day, so if Coronavirus hits in Oz it’s likely to be in Tassie first.

There was a possible case in Queensland, but I heard that has tested negative...

Sounds like I'd better load the beer back onto the boat...

We're all one genetic mutation away from a cataclysm.

And, on that cheery note, I'm going to open a bottle of wine!

Just a plane flight away

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-23/ ... y/11892018

Unfortunately, masks only provide limited protection to others from droplet spray, they don’t provide protection to the wearer.

And we know now influenza virus is spread by aerosol as well.

Olaf Hart wrote:Just a plane flight away

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-23/ ... y/11892018

Unfortunately, masks only provide limited protection to others from droplet spray, they don’t provide protection to the wearer.

And we know now influenza virus is spread by aerosol as well.

Ok, I'll load some snacks, too.

I very rarely catch a cold, flu, etc. but had a whopper of a cold in December. Really glad it was a month ago and not now that this is all in the news.

Olaf Hart wrote:Just a plane flight away

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-23/ ... y/11892018

Unfortunately, masks only provide limited protection to others from droplet spray, they don’t provide protection to the wearer.

And we know now influenza virus is spread by aerosol as well.

Is there a specific type of mask that does provide protection from infection?

If there were an outbreak in NYC, can you imagine a quarantine with all airports and mass transit closed?

There would be mass riots!

TheOffice wrote:If there were an outbreak in NYC, can you imagine a quarantine with all airports and mass transit closed?

There would be mass riots!

There may be mass riots in China - we have no way of knowing for sure.

Having done business in China for about five years, I left with a lot of respect for their implementation of authoritarian rule. If they want to close a city or even a state, they close it. Of course, the smugglers still get in-n-out (meaning they escape not that they get good burgers from So. Cal.)

If the SARS episode is any clue, the actual number of infected individuals in China is much larger than reported. In an odd way that may be good news as the number of reported deaths is probably more accurate, creating a death rate lower than it looks right now. All this is speculation since any info comming out of the country is subject to manipulation by the central government. Closing off a city of 11 million seems to indicate they are taking it seriously, but may also constrain the flow of data. It took months for the Chinese authorities to even admit SARS existed, this time around it seems the world is getting the info much quicker so that is a good sign.

SEVEN cities now! Sounds like the proverbial cat is out of the proverbial bag. The current fatality rate is notable but these control measures make ya wonder what's really, really, the story....

I've noticed that Benno (aka Eric) has been radio silent. I assume he's busy saving all of us from this plague.

BeauV wrote:I've noticed that Benno (aka Eric) has been radio silent. I assume he's busy saving all of us from this plague.

He's a brain guy. I'm not sure that this is in his wheelhouse. He is brilliant though, one of the most fascinating people I've ever met.

Scary numbers I heard from a TV doc - 60-70 % of the world population is susceptible. 2% mortality rate.

More people are still dying from the flu...by far.

H B wrote:More people are still dying from the flu...by far.

Fear is directly related to the Devil You Know vs the Devil You Don't - Humans only pretend to be rational animals.

If we were rational, we'd take away a lot of people's driving licenses, guns, alcohol, and drugs. Instead, we've just about legalized all of those things. Like I said, not rational.

Beau, just on Monday, Laura and I were riding our island cruising bikes (in February!) trying to get in some couples time/exercise. We passed by a "Greenwave" building in between the local convenience store/gas station and library, which used to be a bank. "What is that place, Shawn?" "Medical marijuana place, honey..you can walk there from home almost." I am a little bit worried about the next generation, but I figure by the time I am retired enough I can't take care of myself, I'll be much farther south and/or west from this place...or dead.

I don't give a shit what ends up legalized. I will not partake of anything stronger than alcohol, and even then only occasionally.

I simply cannot fathom spending my life on the sofa, staring off into space with an empty bag of Cool Ranch Doritos in my lap. It seems like a huge waste of life.
I *would* however, invest heavily in successful cannibis firms. I have no problem with being mercenary enough to get rich off of people that want to spend their time and money this way.

Ha..absolutely, Ajax!

Ajax, I am in 100% agreement with you on the over-use of marijuana. Just as it was heartbreaking to watch one of my Uncles drink himself to death, it has been heartbreaking to watch one of my cousins turn into a zombie.

The tradeoff between legalizing something which is bad for you and incurring the downstream bad side effects vs prohibiting it and thereby setting up a thriving criminal market for the stuff is complex. Clearly prohibition didn't work out well for alcohol. It's equally clear that the prohibition of marijuana has driven the growth of another thriving criminal marketplace.

But, we're going to be faced with a constant stream of choices like this. Should we legalize cocaine, heroin, opioids, etc..... Frankly, one can ask the same question about prostitution. The criminal market in prostitution, which is very like the slave trade of old, is entirely driven by the fact that our prudish attitudes don't allow us to recognize the world's oldest profession as being entirely demand driven by the customers.

I don't have an answer to this.

Prostitutes should be given medals.

Panope wrote:Prostitutes should be given medals.

They should be given vaccinations and frequent preventative health checks.

Ajax wrote:

Panope wrote:Prostitutes should be given medals.

They should be given vaccinations and frequent preventative health checks.

Well, they should most certainly be freed from their captors (AKA: Pimps). The number of woman working in slavery is appalling. It got a LOT worse when some misguided twits shut down the Craig's List Personals section. The folks at Craig's List had done more to free women of their Pimps than anyone in history. The prostitutes finally got to communicate directly with their customers, cutting out the brutal slave owner. Well, in our puritanical society that didn't last long. Ah well......

Like I said, trying to ban things leads to the very real question: Are you doing more harm than good? Most folks just close their eyes and ears to the resulting misery their regulations cause.

A similar thing happened is Seattle. The local government shut down a web site used by prostitutes and their customers . This was immediatly followed by a increase in complaints about prostition in the city. The local paper interviewed the women who pointed out shutting down the site did not stop the trade at all, just forced it back on the streets where they were at higher risk of assault and manipulation.

Steele wrote:A similar thing happened is Seattle. The local government shut down a web site used by prostitutes and their customers . This was immediatly followed by a increase in complaints about prostition in the city. The local paper interviewed the women who pointed out shutting down the site did not stop the trade at all, just forced it back on the streets where they were at higher risk of assault and manipulation.

I get so tired of folks trying to dictate morality without thinking through the consequences of their decisions. In so many places our country has decided that one thing is "wrong" and some other thing is "right", without regard to the damage done to so many people.