Scantlings

Hurricane Teddy is coming to visit Nova Scotia tomorrow and Wednesday. Teddy will have passed across the Gulf Stream and will be over colder water so will be losing strength but will still be a post tropical storm when it comes on shore. We expect quite a bit of rain and wind, with winds to 75 mph (65 knots) along the coast east of Halifax.

Teddy is presently passing about 150 miles off Bermuda now.

The forecast track:

What are y'all doing over there in that Atlantic Ocean?? Hurricanes all OVER the place!!! Geeesh!

Probably something to do with all that smoke coming from California...

BeauV wrote:What are y'all doing over there in that Atlantic Ocean?? Hurricanes all OVER the place!!! Geeesh!

Yup, we've run out of English alphabet and we're going to use the Greek alphabet now... only the second time that's happened. Last time was in 2005.

"So 2020: New Storm Forms, Named Alpha Because We've Run Out Of Letters"

Hurricane season, like many other aspects of life, has reached peak 2020.

When Tropical Storm Wilfred and Subtropical Storm Alpha formed on Friday, they became the 21st and 22nd named storms of the season. Not long after them, weather forecasters spotted Tropical Storm Beta.

Put another way, this marks just the second time in history that forecasters have had to resort to the Greek alphabet because available storm names have been exhausted.

The World Meteorological Organization has a list of 21 potential storm names, listed alphabetically from A to W (there are no Q, U, X, Y or Z names because of availability).

https://www.npr.org/2020/09/18/91445340 ... of-letters

Interestingly I'm feeling it down in FL. Road just flooded at high tide due to the NE breeze. I can see the breaking waves in the Gulf Stream again. Nasty.

Two weeks ago I believe we hit a record where for the first time in recorded history, there were five simultaneous tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. Three were TS's, one was and H and one was a "major hurricane." There were also two tropical depressions.

I have a theory/prediction that the ash clouds from the fires may actually be robbing the closer storms of the sun's energy, and that some of these would be even worse if not for them. Which is to say that I'm predicting that somebody with some actual credentials on this matter will produce this theory.

avramd wrote:Two weeks ago I believe we hit a record where for the first time in recorded history, there were five simultaneous tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. Three were TS's, one was and H and one was a "major hurricane." There were also two tropical depressions.

I have a theory/prediction that the ash clouds from the fires may actually be robbing the closer storms of the sun's energy, and that some of these would be even worse if not for them. Which is to say that I'm predicting that somebody with some actual credentials on this matter will produce this theory.

Today's forecast for Cape Breton's south coast, issued 05:00 AM ADT 22 September 2020:

The bit about "Wind increasing to south 50 to 60 knots (60 to 70 mph) near noon" tomorrow looks interesting...

Winds
Today Tonight and Wednesday.
Storm warning in effect. High water level warning in effect.
Wind northeast 15 to 20 knots increasing to northeast 25 early this morning and to east 35 near noon. Wind increasing to east 45 early this evening then veering to southeast 35 near midnight. Wind increasing to south 50 to 60 knots near noon Wednesday then diminishing to west 25 to 30 Wednesday evening.

Waves
Today Tonight and Wednesday.
Seas 2 to 3 metres building to 3 to 5 near noon and to 5 to 7 early this evening. Seas building to 7 to 9 near noon Wednesday then subsiding to 4 to 6 Wednesday evening.

Weather & Visibility
Today Tonight and Wednesday.
Rain beginning this morning with a risk of thunderstorms tonight changing to showers overnight. Visibility 1 mile or less in rain.

Despite all the "oh my God! There are more hurricanes than ever" each day on the media, the total ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy, total of all storms), which had an updated forecast in early August to be nearly double the long term (30 plus years) average at 200 is decidedly normal today at just over 100. Teddy makes up 1/4 of the year's total as of this morning and most of it's energy has been expended in the open sea. Basically, a tremendous number of small, short lived storms that have had average impact. Other than Teddy which is now a Cat 1 and likely down to a TS within 24 hours, it's looking like the very significant rainfall events along the US Gulf Coast will be the history of this season as the forecasters are seeing the end of the North Atlantic seasonal cycle.

In any case, Teddy is a real threat to Nova Scotia and Newfoundland over the next 36-48 hours. Stay safe Ken.


If you care, ACE is defined as

The measure of total seasonal activity used by NOAA is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index. The ACE index is a wind energy index, defined as the sum of the squares of the maximum sustained surface wind speed (knots) measured every six hours for all named storms while they are at least tropical storm intensity.

Thanks Larry, we'll keep our heads down.

I hadn't heard of the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index before, thanks for that too. I'm off to do some reading.

It looks like Graham may be having an interesting afternoon:

Halifax Harbour and Approaches
Today Tonight and Wednesday.
Gale warning in effect. High water level warning in effect.
Wind northeast 25 knots except northeast 35 in the Approaches. Wind increasing to northeast 40 this afternoon with gusts to 50 then diminishing to northeast 25 this evening. Wind veering to southeast 25 near midnight then backing to northeast 30 early Wednesday morning. Wind increasing to northwest 35 late Wednesday morning then diminishing to northwest 20 Wednesday afternoon.