What's going on in Texas??

[BeauV]

We in California are used to having a crumby power company (PG&E, I'm talking about you here), that defers maintenance so they can jack up executive non-cash salaries by showing high profits and using those funds for stock buyback. But, from what I'm reading Texas has us beat in the area of incompetent power systems.

Did the folks in Texas really think they could ignore the dry-run of this event in 2011 when well heads froze and they were ordered to modernize their system of sourcing Natural Gas? The yahoo that is trying to blame this on windmills freezing is an idiot. Again, from what I read only 7% of the power for Texas is from "renewables" in the winter. The rest is from natural gas. So that dog won't hunt.

This mess is about as bad as our power company turning off 1/2 the state because the wind is blowing 50knots, but at least in our climate folks don't freeze to death when that happens. (mostly)

What's really going on ???

[BeauV]

I did find this take on it: Heather Cox Richardson

This quote was pretty entertaining: Tucker Carlson told his viewers that Texas was “totally reliant on windmills.” (How clueless are his audience??)

[Rob McAlpine]

We have a grid optimized for hot weather, which makes sense, since hot weather is our norm. Most of our conventional plants are not winterized, which is also sensible, since usually winter is more theory than practice here.

Natural gas powered electric output is actually better than the news has portrayed it. Output from naturals gas plants is up 450% over a week ago, it's just not enough to make up for the loss of wind and solar. I live in the middle of the world's largest collection of wind farms, but they're not doing much. It's 17 degrees, cloudy and windless right now.

We've never lost power, but my office building has shut down power to the offices and elevators.

The real reason for the widespread shutdown of everything is not electricity, it's roads. Because of the deep, persistent cold, the 4-5 " of snow that fell last weekend has never melted, on the roads it's been compressed into 1/2-3/4" of perfect ice.

Towns in Texas have no snow removal or salt/sanding equipment. None. Again, this makes perfect sense, this is a 50 year event. We've been here 40 and never seen anything approaching this.

For us, the ice on roads is a bigger problem than the power issues. Our daughter in Austin lost power for a few hours, but it came back.

Living here, we think the press is blowing everything out of proportion. If there is a story, it's that most people have very poor understandings of where their power comes from and its reliability. Wind does make up a huge part of our supply, and when it and solar shut down in cold, cloudy, still weather, the "spinning reserves" or backup power came up short.

The government and utilities, BTW, do not operate gas wells, of which there are fewer and fewer, as they are not economic to drill. Most gas now is casing head gas, associated with oil production. Most of my oil wells that produce gas are shut in right now to avoid leaks and spills in this weather, and to keep trucks off the road. My understanding is there is plenty, plenty of gas. In a couple of cases compressor stations lost electric power, which curtailed supply to specific plants, but this has been a minor contributor. Traditionally, pipeline compressor stations have run on residue (methane) but many have been switched to electric, for a variety of reasons, including reduced emissions, but also greater reliability, easier maintenance, and greatly reduced capital costs. The downside is higher fuel costs, as the burned fuel was allocated back to producers as shrinkage, and susceptibility to power outages.

One of the units at the South Texas Project (fission) went down due to a frozen circulating pump suction line. Again, our plants, especially in south Texas, are not winterized, which, again, is sensible given our weather patterns.

[BeauV]

Rob, thanks for all that. I was hoping I'd get the straight story from someone. I get not designing for a 50-year event. Let's hope the destabilized polar vortex stabilizes so that it's not an every three-year event. That said, around here we build all our buildings to withstand the predicted 200-year earthquake; rational as that sort of earthquake entirely destroys buildings, vs just having them being damn cold for a week or two. Again - thanks.

[TheOffice]

Funny thing is that the Stars games are postponed due to cold

[H B]

One of our subcontractors does work at lot of the Texas power plants. He basically said what Rob said, and in addition to having plants that won't run when it is cold, he mentioned the windmills aren't designed to do that either, and some of them have frozen up too. Also mentioned, TX owns its own power grid, so they don't get help from neighboring states/co-ops when they need additional manpower for repairs.

Hell, the anemometer on my personal weather station here in MD is currently frozen and we only got a coating. I knew it was windier than one knot, so poked my head up to see the cups moving in sync with the wind vane. Up to 32.2°F though, so hopefully we are on the back side..might take a few more days in TX.

Now the worry is not getting smacked on the head (again) with a falling icicle.

[TheOffice]

Windmills can be fit with heaters. The Texas operator chose to saw a few bucks.

It seems like these 50 year and 100 year events are occurring WAY more often that that. If 50 year events are every 10 or 20 when do you decide to upgrade your infrastructure?

[Rob McAlpine]

Heaters don't matter if the wind doesn't blow. Windmills kick in at around 7 MPH wind speed and reach full power at about 25 mph. On our coldest day here the wind never got above 5 mph. This system blew in, then stopped and sat for a few days.

This is the inherent drawback of wind. That said, it's an essential part of the power grid, and no state has more. It makes terrific sense most days. On the days it doesn't, you have backup. The backup would have been completely sufficient under normal circumstances, but demand skyrocketed just as temps dropped and the wind died.

The cost/benefit analysis for winterizing power plants out here is pretty sketchy. I've run oilfields from Wyoming to south Texas. In Wyoming you winterize everything. In south Texas you winterize nothing.

Our friends in all-electric homes who lost power were pretty unhappy. That propane BBQ out back is not a great way to cook when it's 7 degrees out. A natural gas connection makes a lot of sense for heating, cooking, or running an emergency Genset.

It was interesting while it lasted. Yesterday was beautiful and sunny, and melted most of the snow. The rest will be gone by noon. Covid is still a much bigger deal than our weather.

[Jamie]

The way this talk about Texas has evolved reminds me of how Portland was called, "Little Beirut", by a prior administration and how the conservative media have portrayed Portland as some kind of lawless den of iniquity. The riots this Summer were mostly confined to a very localized area around the court building. People believe too much of what they see in a skewed media environment.

When I was shipping my car out East, I had to meet the truck at an old Sears Outlet the truck driver saw some of the homeless and made some comments about how Portland was just full of junkies..this is the outcome of socialism....Portland is Venezuela...how do you possibly live here? I asked him where he came from and he said Ohio. I said I've been to Cleveland and Cincinnati. Where do you think these people come from?

He'll never know how there are still modestly priced houses where you can walk to good local restaurants and breweries that cost much less, and have a higher quality, than anything I can get in Florida. Where my local barber can hone my razors and give me a cut for less than $20 including tip. Where I have a small movie theater left over from the 30's that has been upgraded and costs $8 for first run movies in big seats. Where my pharmacy is 100 years old with a still working soda fountain and next to a great Donut shop left over the the 1950's and now run by immigrants from Vietnam, Where I still have a real butcher that can process game, or the cow I bought from my colleagues farm....etc...all within walking distance. Sure, hate on the millennials, hipsters and "socialism". They might be killing off Velveeta but they are keeping a lot of stuff I appreciate alive. (I guess I really miss PDX!)

Portland does have a problem with the homeless. Most of them are people with mental and drug issues from mid-western states and Cali.

The biggest issue my immediate neighbors have had are the coyotes eating outdoor cats!

[Rob McAlpine]

The 24 hour news cycle requires fodder. Whether something is true or not really doesn't matter.

This was the real problem.

image.jpeg

[Jamie]

The 24 hour news cycle requires fodder. Whether something is true or not really doesn't matter.

This was the real problem.

image.jpeg

[kdh]

The 24 hour news cycle requires fodder. Whether something is true or not really doesn't matter.

This was the real problem.

image.jpeg

I keep two tractors around to remove snow. A Mahindra (Adele when she was little wanted a red one) and a Deere, one with a snowblower and a heated cab, and the other with a plow. Using them has never gotten old. Great toys. Don't tell Ann, who imagines I think clearing snow is drudgery.

[Rob McAlpine]

I keep two tractors around to remove snow. A Mahindra (Adele when she was little wanted a red one) and a Deere, one with a snowblower and a heated cab, and the other with a plow. Using them has never gotten old. Great toys. Don't tell Ann, who imagines I think clearing snow is drudgery.

Driving heavy equipment is fun!

[BeauV]

My "starter-wife" was a journalist. I served as her driver when there was a "BIG EVENT". We'd drive all over LA looking for something that would really impress her editor. We never set anything on fire, but we sure thought about it. A simple dumpster fire with some homeless people in the background would have been great for her career. Sigh....

When we abolished the "Fairness Doctrine" we screwed the pooch. News almost immediately became "entertainment" and revenues soared each time there was a manufactured catastrophe. I still chat with my starter-wife who is appalled by what has happened to her industry. But, it has also made her a massive pile of money, so she's not too broken up about it.

When taking in the news (except for outlets like PBS and the Economist) I have been telling my kids (and now my grandkids) that someone is creating this garbage to sell ads. We even compare local stories on TV with what's actually going on by driving over and taking a look. They now realize that this is all a "Reality TV Show" and not reality. They might as well be watching the The Housewives of Orange County. Yuk!!

[kimbottles]

My "starter-wife" was a journalist. I served as her driver when there was a "BIG EVENT". We'd drive all over LA looking for something that would really impress her editor. We never set anything on fire, but we sure thought about it. A simple dumpster fire with some homeless people in the background would have been great for her career. Sigh....

When we abolished the "Fairness Doctrine" we screwed the pooch. News almost immediately became "entertainment" and revenues soared each time there was a manufactured catastrophe. I still chat with my starter-wife who is appalled by what has happened to her industry. But, it has also made her a massive pile of money, so she's not too broken up about it.

When taking in the news (except for outlets like PBS and the Economist) I have been telling my kids (and now my grandkids) that someone is creating this garbage to sell ads. We even compare local stories on TV with what's actually going on by driving over and taking a look. They now realize that this is all a "Reality TV Show" and not reality. They might as well be watching the The Housewives of Orange County. Yuk!!

Unfortunately all you say appears to be true.
Entertainment, not NEWS

[Ish]

My "starter-wife" was a journalist. I served as her driver when there was a "BIG EVENT". We'd drive all over LA looking for something that would really impress her editor. We never set anything on fire, but we sure thought about it. A simple dumpster fire with some homeless people in the background would have been great for her career. Sigh....

When we abolished the "Fairness Doctrine" we screwed the pooch. News almost immediately became "entertainment" and revenues soared each time there was a manufactured catastrophe. I still chat with my starter-wife who is appalled by what has happened to her industry. But, it has also made her a massive pile of money, so she's not too broken up about it.

When taking in the news (except for outlets like PBS and the Economist) I have been telling my kids (and now my grandkids) that someone is creating this garbage to sell ads. We even compare local stories on TV with what's actually going on by driving over and taking a look. They now realize that this is all a "Reality TV Show" and not reality. They might as well be watching the The Housewives of Orange County. Yuk!!

Unfortunately all you say appears to be true.
Entertainment, not NEWS

Unfortunately, much that the "Entertainers" say is blatantly false. Not just an exaggeration, but fabricated from whole cloth. And their audiences act as though it were true. Yes, I'm looking at you, Faux News.

[Olaf Hart]

It’s now become a loop, the “news” sites report stories they find on the web, then interview “reporters” for more uninformed comment, then those comments become the story and on it goes.

If you recall out little drama here in Oz with Facebook, after Murdoch convinced our government to legislate against sites breaching his paywalls, the irony is the local Murdoch News Ltd site just pulls all its stories off the web.

I doubt a News Ltd journalist has moved off their couch and found a real story for the last ten years.

My big issue with infotainment is that anxiety sells, so that’s what they peddle, and it has serious effects on mental health..

[BeauV]

...snip....

My big issue with infotainment is that anxiety sells, so that’s what they peddle, and it has serious effects on mental health..

OH,

It's not just anxiety, this Total-Bull-Shit-7x24 fake news nonsense is breaking up marriages, families, and friendships that date back decades. I just finished an email exchange with someone who is STILL claiming that COVID is no worse than the regular flu and he's pissed off that small businesses (he owns one) are taking all the losses while big corporations are raking it in. He is immune to copies of United, American, etc... financial reports along with a large number of other "big businesses" because he only "knows" what he hears on these BS-news services. We're seeing widespread propaganda at an astounding level and it is tearing at the fabric of our country.

I'd be happy with "anxiety", but this has to stop somehow.

B

[Olaf Hart]

Beau, I get that, we have a smaller Murdoch owned version of Fox News called Sky News slowly ramping up the same bullshit down here.

Seems to light up the same demographic as well, blue collar workers in warmer states threatened by immigrants or global warming strategies.

Fortunately they can’t seem to light up the electorate, and we have seen several far right political operators come and go over the last ten years

We also don’t have the same fundamentalist religious structure for them to build on.

But I still think identifying basic fears and building a business model on exploiting them is behind this mess, Murdoch needs to rot in hell.

[Tigger]

Time for a remake of Citizen Kane!

[SemiSalt]

My "starter-wife" was a journalist. I served as her driver when there was a "BIG EVENT". We'd drive all over LA looking for something that would really impress her editor. We never set anything on fire, but we sure thought about it. A simple dumpster fire with some homeless people in the background would have been great for her career. Sigh....

"If it pleads, it leads" goes back long before the internet.

[BeauV]

My "starter-wife" was a journalist. I served as her driver when there was a "BIG EVENT". We'd drive all over LA looking for something that would really impress her editor. We never set anything on fire, but we sure thought about it. A simple dumpster fire with some homeless people in the background would have been great for her career. Sigh....

"If it pleads, it leads" goes back long before the internet.

Agreed - but the end of the "Fairness Doctrine" and a completely lack of many internet users to recognize an outright lie has made things much worse.

[BeauV]

...snip...

The cost/benefit analysis for winterizing power plants out here is pretty sketchy. I've run oilfields from Wyoming to south Texas. In Wyoming you winterize everything. In south Texas you winterize nothing.

Our friends in all-electric homes who lost power were pretty unhappy. That propane BBQ out back is not a great way to cook when it's 7 degrees out. A natural gas connection makes a lot of sense for heating, cooking, or running an emergency Genset.

Rob,

I've been following the on-going reporting on the failure of the power grid. This is because we have precisely the same problem in CA, but without the freezing temps (around here). Today, this came up:

"Facilities owned by Fortune 500 energy giants NRG, Calpine Corporation and Vistra Corporation, all headquartered in Texas, and the Chicago-based Exelon, experienced shutdowns during last month’s winter storm as well as during the state’s last historic cold snap a decade ago, according to a review by The Washington Post. In testimony to state lawmakers, documents for shareholders and statements to The Post, the companies have said that last month’s problems occurred at least in part due to a failure to properly winterize equipment — in other words, to implement certain upgrades designed to protect power infrastructure from the cold. The same issue contributed to their shutdowns back in 2011."

Source

I think we face the same sort of short-term thinking here. I can easily see PG&E ignoring the disastrous fires of the last two years for a decade and then wringing their hands about how the cost/benefit analysis didn't pencil out. Somehow we have to get these clowns to pay for the consequential damages of their short-term view of profitablility.

[slap]

Agreed - but the end of the "Fairness Doctrine" and a completely lack of many internet users to recognize an outright lie has made things much worse.

I am under the impression that the Fairness Doctrine was placed on broadcast media because they airwaves were a public resource and the broadcasters had to have a license to use the airwaves. The current deluge of misinformation comes from cable broadcasters and internet streaming and probably could not be held to the Fairness Doctrine even if it still was in effect.

[BeauV]

Agreed - but the end of the "Fairness Doctrine" and a completely lack of many internet users to recognize an outright lie has made things much worse.

I am under the impression that the Fairness Doctrine was placed on broadcast media because they airwaves were a public resource and the broadcasters had to have a license to use the airwaves. The current deluge of misinformation comes from cable broadcasters and internet streaming and probably could not be held to the Fairness Doctrine even if it still was in effect.

I agree. But....

The Federal government did simply decided that they owned the airwaves, then did all sorts of things with that asset like the Fairness Doctrine and selling licenses, etc... The airwaves were no more a natural public resource than the water in rivers or the ability to dig a trench in a city and bury a cable, or the ability to lay railroad tracks across the land that the government had taken from its owners by force or by eminent domain. The decision of what is public and what is private is entirely arbitrary.

It would be irritating to folks like AT&T and Comcast, but trivial for the Federal Government to decide these are public utilities and need to be regulated. The only thing lacking is courage. If the level of utter garbage sent over cable and the internet gets bad enough, or if the Fed. Government feels threatened by it, they could find the courage to act. For example, if the internet really does become efficient and the platform upon which the ultra-right-wing organizes an effective version of the January 6th debacle, the companies providing that platform might discover they're more than regulated they could be nationalized. Obviously, it would start the intermediaries, like Facebook & Twitter, but it could rapidly turn to the infrastructure providers if the various security agencies couldn't find a way to gain access and control over what was floating on the network.

There are a lot of folks who have suddenly realized that the app Telegram is probably not as "secure" as they thought, as various "secure" transmissions have been popping up in court. It's like the old joke: "You knew the spies had a better plane when they started talking about the U2, then you knew when they had a better method of observation and reconnaissance when they started talking about the SR-71, then you knew they had a better spy satellite when they started releasing the specs on the Hubble, etc..... Governments have a habit of defending themselves.