Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

[Tigger]

Thanks! I'm not particularly concerned about absurd snow depths, just traction when it's white outside.

I'm also curious about the SkyActive X engine Mazda has in the pipe, but who knows when that is available in North America.

[H B]

Traction in winter is all about tire choice and their rubber compounds. My old '91 Civic was great in the snow, FWD, with simple Pirelli all-season M+S tires. My '07 Civic Si, also FWD, has high-performance all season M+S tires, and they suck in the snow. Technically, those choices are in the middle of the road so-to-speak, there are additional choices in each direction. The more oriented toward performance, the shittier they are in cold/snow. A buddy had summer tires on his Infinity G-37 coupe, and unless the roads were dry in winter, he would not drive the car even in cold rain, said it was like ice skates under 37°or so F. I am guessing the tires got hard in cold and lost their grip. I think most summer tires have a manufacturer warning about colder temps and inclement weather in case you venture out in conditions the tires are not designed for.
If you have the means, the best solution is a set of snow tires you bolt on when it gets cold and take off in Spring.

[LarryHoward]

Traction in winter is all about tire choice and their rubber compounds. My old '91 Civic was great in the snow, FWD, with simple Pirelli all-season M+S tires. My '07 Civic Si, also FWD, has high-performance all season M+S tires, and they suck in the snow. Technically, those choices are in the middle of the road so-to-speak, there are additional choices in each direction. The more oriented toward performance, the shittier they are in cold/snow. A buddy had summer tires on his Infinity G-37 coupe, and unless the roads were dry in winter, he would not drive the car even in cold rain, said it was like ice skates under 37°or so F. I am guessing the tires got hard in cold and lost their grip. I think most summer tires have a manufacturer warning about colder temps and inclement weather in case you venture out in conditions the tires are not designed for.
If you have the means, the best solution is a set of snow tires you bolt on when it gets cold and take off in Spring.

I chose the middle ground. Full on summer tires for...summer. Dunlop SP-4 winter performance tires on their own set of wheels for Nov-March. The winter performance tires are great in cold and wet. Good in icy conditions and good in moderate snow, much better than all season (no season?) tires. Lynne's S-2000 has summer tires but it lives int eh garage when the weather is bad. Her bad weather minivan has all seasons biased towards wet traction and they are fairly good in 3-4" of snow given the AWD van.

Edit. but Summer tires are generally hard as nails when cold and have little traction below 40 degrees F. I have not personally seen this happen but some of the newer "Extreme" summer tires that can deliver >1G lateral with the right car have warranty exclusions for cracking and chunking if they are used in below freezing conditions. From Tire Rack:

Storing Extreme Performance Summer Tires in Cold Temperatures

Like the motorsports tires they have evolved from, all Extreme Performance Summer performance category tires feature constructions and compounds that have been tuned to maximize traction and performance within a range of warm-to-hot ambient temperatures. Therefore, unlike less highly tuned tires, these types of tires must only be operated in and stored at temperatures consistent with their thoroughbred characteristics.

In addition to normal tire storage recommendations, Extreme Performance Summer performance category tires require supplementary storage procedures be followed to prevent tire compound cracking due to exposure to cold temperatures.

While these recommendations are general guidelines offered by Tire Rack, selected tire manufacturers may have additional specific recommendations applicable to their tires. Follow the tire manufacturer’s recommendations whenever available.
It is not recommended to drive on these types of tires at temperatures below 40 degrees F (5 degrees C).

It is recommended these types of tires be stored indoors at temperatures maintained at above 20 degrees F (-7 degrees C) when not in use.

Tires accidentally exposed to temperatures of 20 degrees F (-7 degrees C) or lower must be permitted to gradually return to temperatures of at least 40 degrees F (5 degrees C) for at least 24 hours before they are flexed by adjusting inflation pressures, mounting them on wheels, or using them to support, roll or drive a vehicle.

In order to allow gradual, uniform and thorough increase in tire temperature, these types of tires should be protected from direct sources of intense heat as they warm up. Do not apply localized heat, blow heated air directly on them, nor place them near a heat source.

Always inspect tires before use after storage periods.

While compound cracking is not a warrantable condition because it occurs as the result of improper use or storage, tires exhibiting compound cracking must be replaced.

[Jamie]

Tires make such a difference for everything.

For my Winter set I go from. 245/40-18 extreme summer performance to a 215/50-17 severe snow service. The narrower tire and smaller rim make a big difference in deep snow. I’ll put the snowies on once it gets too cold for the Summer tires. With a lockable center-diff and limited slip diffs all around on an awd system, the Sti does surprising well in the snow and black ice. Better than most of the trucks/bro-dozers. However, the extra hp from cold air temps still permits scubi donuts in parking lots.

[Ajax]

I'll paste this since it's behind the WSJ paywall. Tesla seems to be "on track" which is good.

Tesla Inc. TSLA 4.12% delivered 112,000 electric vehicles in the final three months of last year, enough to meet Chief Executive Elon Musk’s ambitious growth goal for 2019.

All totaled, Tesla delivered 367,500 vehicles in the year against a target of handing over at least 360,000 cars and sport-utility vehicles, the company said Friday.

The full-year figure represents a 50% increase from 2018. It punctuates the dramatic rise in output Tesla has achieved from 2016, when the Silicon Valley auto maker revealed the mass-market Model 3. The car was the centerpiece of Mr. Musk’s bet that he could transform the electric-car maker from niche luxury player into a more mainstream car company.
Ramping UpTesla reported another record quarter ofvehicle deliveries.Tesla's quarterly deliveriesSources: the company; FactSet
Q12016Q12017Q12018Q12019025,00050,00075,000100,000125,000

Fourth-quarter deliveries rose 23% from a year earlier and beat analyst expectations for 106,000 vehicles. Tesla shares, which have rallied since Tesla posted strong third-quarter earnings last year, rose to a record and were trading 4.01% higher at $447.54 mid-morning.

Sales of the Model 3 fueled the year’s growth. Deliveries of the Model 3 continued upward momentum from the third to the fourth quarter, rising 16% to 92,500 in the final three months. That was a 47% increase from the final quarter of 2018.
Related

Analysis: Take Your Victory Lap, Elon Musk

Mr. Musk’s 2019 target of delivering between 360,000 and 400,000 vehicles represented a step down from loftier ambitions pronounced earlier. Mr. Musk had once promised to make 500,000 in 2018, with Tesla reaching the one million vehicles level in 2020.

Tesla won’t disclose for several weeks how much money it made on the cars it delivered in the fourth quarter. Analysts surveyed by FactSet, on average, expect a profit for the most recent quarter, though they project that Tesla will remain in the red for all of 2019.

Vehicle deliveries are set to increase again this year, in part bolstered by the Model Y compact SUV that should start going to customers. Analysts estimate the company will deliver around 463,000 vehicles during the year.

Bringing out the Model 3 in 2017 was harder than Mr. Musk first thought, straining investor patience and threatening the company with financial ruin. The company struggled first with building the car then delivering it to customers.

Tesla in 2019 made 365,194 vehicles, including the Model S large sedan and Model X sport-utility vehicle. During the fourth quarter, Tesla produced 104,891 vehicles, a 9% rise from the third quarter.

[TheOffice]

Good to see them deliver! The question will be whether people keep buying Teslas when Ford, VW etc come to the mass market with electrics. The loss of tax credits for Teslas will inflict some pain on Model 3/Y sales once there are viable competitors. Still hoping to get a VW Crozz in 12-18 months.

Honda's CEO is betting that most people want an ICE car. VW is betting the other way, with an electric only platform. MB is building a platform that can use either, but it has stopped development of ICE engines.

Thanks to today's news, we will see a spike in gas prices.

Joel

[Jamie]

Ooops!

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a3038 ... breakdown/

That said, my next car will probably be an EV and right now most likely a Tesla. Most people I know who own one are very happy with it including a couple of Uber/Lyft drivers I use.

During internet part 1 I assumed that eventually the legacy firms would win because at the end of the day it's still retail and marketing and that's what the legacy firms do all day. I was completely wrong about that and did not understand the challenges of institutional change. Look at teardown of the cars and you still see a huge gap in thinking between the legacy and EV mfgs.

[Panope]

I'm seriously considering selling my small pick-up (Ranger) and replacing it with a second hand VW e-Golf (I'll keep the F-250 for hauling stuff).

Any of you all have any thoughts about the e-golf? How reliable?

I understand they have a very short range, and that is no problem as I very rarely drive more than 30 miles (one way).

I'm actually glad the range is low because it must be contributing the very low second hand prices of these (and the early Leafs) cars.

Steve

[TheOffice]

I'm seriously considering selling my small pick-up (Ranger) and replacing it with a second hand VW e-Golf (I'll keep the F-250 for hauling stuff).

Any of you all have any thoughts about the e-golf? How reliable?

I understand they have a very short range, and that is no problem as I very rarely drive more than 30 miles (one way).

I'm actually glad the range is low because it must be contributing the very low second hand prices of these (and the early Leafs) cars.

Steve

Have not seen any info on reliability because so few are sold. Range is about 125 miles. Other less sexy option is to get one of the 'repaired VW diesels. About 50 mpg and a warranty.

[BeauV]

I'm seriously considering selling my small pick-up (Ranger) and replacing it with a second hand VW e-Golf (I'll keep the F-250 for hauling stuff).

Any of you all have any thoughts about the e-golf? How reliable?

I understand they have a very short range, and that is no problem as I very rarely drive more than 30 miles (one way).

I'm actually glad the range is low because it must be contributing the very low second hand prices of these (and the early Leafs) cars.

Steve

You're correct to expect a low price due to the short-range. Unless you really need the range, which most folks don't, you're paying a serious premium for something you're not using very often. It's like a penalty pole on a spinnaker, pay all the time & use rarely.

I find it rather mind-boggling that folks pay massive amounts for features on cars which they rarely use. The biggest example is the "Ludicrous mode" on Teslas, which most people use for about 2.3 seconds once a month max.

Here's the distributions of commutes for the US last year:

68% of US drivers have a daily commute which is less than 34 minutes. Note that the average distance is only about 18 miles. Most folks measure commute by minutes, which give a massive advantage to an EV, which uses almost no fuel sitting still and very little at speeds below 30 mph.

[Steele]

Steve,
I have a friend interested in the e-golf, but so far has held off since there may be some issues finding dealers willing to work on them. It might be worth researching this since I doubt there are too many VW places near you. The Leaf seems more common so that might be less of an issue.

On the other hand it is probably moot, especially if it is out of warranty. You can fix anything, or better yet just build your own

[Panope]

Have not seen any info on reliability because so few are sold. Range is about 125 miles. Other less sexy option is to get one of the 'repaired VW diesels. About 50 mpg and a warranty.

Thanks Joel,

I'm not wild about a diesel car. Compared to a similarly modern gasser, they noisier, smellier, vibrate more and may not be any better for the atmosphere (more particulates and also, a gallon of diesel has more carbon in it than a gallon of gas).

That said, if I could have found a cheap Cummins diesel Dodge PU, I would have chosen that over the gas F-250.

[Panope]

68% of US drivers have a daily commute which is less than 34 minutes. Note that the average distance is only about 18 miles. Most folks measure commute by minutes, which give a massive advantage to an EV, which uses almost no fuel sitting still and very little at speeds below 30 mph.

I hear you, Beau. I'm the poster child for a low range EV. 10 mile commute (3.5 miles if I move to the new house). Plus, I am quickly becoming an old curmudgeon who does not want to go ANYWHERE unless on foot or under sail.

I reckon all that flying burned me out on going....

[Panope]

Steve,
I have a friend interested in the e-golf, but so far has held off since there may be some issues finding dealers willing to work on them. It might be worth researching this since I doubt there are too many VW places near you. The Leaf seems more common so that might be less of an issue.



On the other hand it is probably moot, especially if it is out of warranty. You can fix anything, or better yet just build your own

I don't know Tom, fixing a modern car might be a little too high-tech for me. Can you fix an electric car with a hammer?

I've actually considered converting the F-250 to electric. It would be perfect for towing Panope (1 mile at 10 m.p.h.). If the engine ever goes tits up, it will probably happen.

[Tigger]

I don't know Tom, fixing a modern car might be a little too high-tech for me. Can you fix an electric car with a hammer?
.

I don't know about a hammer, but if anyone can weld something to the unibody of the new Tesla truck it's you!

[TheOffice]

Fisker has announced its new EV. $37,500 less the EV credit. Lease for 300 a month for as long as you want with 3,000 down.Reservations are open. Delivery in 2022.

If nothing else, it creates price pressure on Tesla if they actually get to launch.

[TheOffice]

Fisker has announced its new EV. $37,500 less the EV credit. Lease for 300 a month for as long as you want with 3,000 down.Reservations are open. Delivery in 2022.

If nothing else, it creates price pressure on Tesla if they actually get to launch.

[LarryHoward]

Polestar II is taking reservations, albeit at a higher price point. Not a bad looking option as well. I'm hoping I'll have some competitive offerings when I'm ready to buy my next car.

[Jamie]

Polestar II is taking reservations, albeit at a higher price point. Not a bad looking option as well. I'm hoping I'll have some competitive offerings when I'm ready to buy my next car.

This is the same Polestar that used to tune those nice Volvo wagons?

[LarryHoward]

Polestar II is taking reservations, albeit at a higher price point. Not a bad looking option as well. I'm hoping I'll have some competitive offerings when I'm ready to buy my next car.

This is the same Polestar that used to tune those nice Volvo wagons?

As far as I can tell from their online presence.

Fisker has done something interesting. (because....Fisker). Their new Electric SUV will have no way for the owner to open the "hood" over the motors and such. No user serviceable components and losing the hinges, latches, seals, etc. reduces production costs.

[BeauV]

Given no "normal human" can work on a modern car, I'm amazed they haven't locked the hood shut ages ago.

[Ajax]

Hm, I suspect the "Right to Repair" folks might have something to say about this.

[Jamie]

A laptop with a ECU definitions map, an open source editing tool, youtube and parts you can fix most cars these days

[BeauV]

Hm, I suspect the "Right to Repair" folks might have something to say about this.

They aren't having much luck with the Tractors in the mid-west. Buying old tractors without computers seems to be the only recourse they have.

[TheOffice]

Maybe you engineering types can answer a question:

Why no gears in an electric car? Wouldn't a motor spinning at a lower rate use less power and increase range, or is the amount of power used linear?

Joel

[BeauV]

Maybe you engineering types can answer a question:

Why no gears in an electric car? Wouldn't a motor spinning at a lower rate use less power and increase range, or is the amount of power used linear?

Joel

Joel,

I'm not entirely certain, but I believe that the additional power used by spinning the motor fast is less than the amount of power loss in a transmission that could gear it down. The original Tesla Roadster had a 2-speed transmission, primarily so the little thing could hit higher top speeds. It was dropped for subsequent models.

I think the issue is really torque. Electric motors have max torque at zero RPM, then hold it for a while, so the faster you spin them the less torque you have. Here's the torque curve for our Tesla Model S. (Source)



Note that the motor is still providing full torque up to 45 MPH, and at 80 MPH is still at 50% torque. What this means is that without a transmission, the motor is operating at near max efficiency. While introducing a transmission could keep the torque up high at speed above about 60 MPH, there are very very few folks who will pay for that extra performance.

Said another way, you don't get any improvement in efficiency by gearing the motor down, but you do lose at least 12-15% to friction in the transmission. So, it's more efficient to leave the transmission out unless you drive frequently at speeds above 80-100 MPH.

Here's a Source for getting transmission efficiency. A quick read says the number is 0.941. If I'm reading this right, it means that there is about a 0.59% (or 6/10th of a percent) loss for each gear/bearing pair. If a transmission needs at least two gear pairs and four bearing sets (minimum), I think the loss gets up to about 2%. My memory is that a standard 4-speed manual gearbox has a loss of around 6%. If you run the power around a 90 deg. turn, as you do in a differential, you incur about a 5% loss per turn.

Currently, Tesla doesn't use either a gearbox or a differential but gets an all-wheel-drive system with two motors. Unless one were to install two separate transmissions - one front, and one rear - then they'd need to have two differentials as well as the transmission. That's what you see in a 4WD truck or SUV. As a result, the total loss of adding two differentials plus a transmission to the system would be around 12%. Assuming all my numbers are roughly right. This loss would occur all the time as opposed to the relatively small amount of time a Tesla spends traveling at very high speeds and thus incurring inefficiency due to the electric motor rotating too fast.

[Steele]

The Taycan has a 2 speed transmission, not sure why.

I saw a recent article about Sony showing an EV. They claimed to have no plans to sell one, but it's interesting to think of an electronics company getting in the game. They understand batteries, tech, sales, supply lines etc. How they would do with the rest of a car is unclear, but if Tesla could start from scratch then Sony or LG should be able to do make it work.

[BeauV]

The Taycan has a 2 speed transmission, not sure why.

I saw a recent article about Sony showing an EV. They claimed to have no plans to sell one, but it's interesting to think of an electronics company getting in the game. They understand batteries, tech, sales, supply lines etc. How they would do with the rest of a car is unclear, but if Tesla could start from scratch then Sony or LG should be able to do make it work.

I think it makes perfect sense for Porsche to build an EV with a transmission. Their customers want/need bragging rights about high-end performance. Porsche customers would be choosing between a Porsche EV and something like a Lambo or Ferarri. Tesla customers are folks who choose between Tesla and a BMW 7-series or an MBZ S-class, or for the Model X it'd be a high-end SUV.

There's no way that Tesla could beat a car with a transmission around the Nuremberg ring. But, we all know, none of us drives around the Nuremberg ring except in our dreams.

[kimbottles]

Well maybe if Sabine Schmitz was driving it would win.........

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... chmitz.jpg

[BeauV]

I hadn't realized that there was a Taycan "4S" for about $100k, it's priced right up against the Tesla Model S. From Porsche for the same money you get:
- about half the range
- 429hp vs 760hp
- 3.8 vs 2.4 zero to 60 times

Good article HERE with all this data. The author keeps trying to substitute the performance numbers for the $180k Taycan Turbo S but that one is almost twice the price of the Tesla. All of this is disappointing for a guy who has owned 2 Porsche SUVs and 2 Porsche Turbo sports cars. I expected the company to build a car that has better specs than a 5-year-old design from Tesla.