Conoravirus ...

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Re: Conoravirus ...

Postby Olaf Hart » Sat Apr 04, 2020 5:34 pm

kdh wrote:I hear you, OH. I was blunt and overly simplistic. I apologize. I'm sorry I put you on the defensive.

And I think dealing with data is messy in many contexts. Making inferences or getting anything useful is often a challenge.


I took no offence, it’s a reasonable comment to make from outside the room, I wish we had better data..

Large population studies over many years with megadata, now we are talking..

Unfortunately most of our current data has been funded by someone with something to sell.
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Re: Conoravirus ...

Postby Ajax » Sat Apr 04, 2020 5:58 pm

Benno von Humpback wrote:
Ajax wrote:
Benno von Humpback wrote:
Olaf Hart wrote:Unfortunately the COVID outbreak has led to outbreaks of another disease as well

http://thesciencepost.com/outbreak-of-d ... 50-states/

It's endemic here.


Ha, if that were real Maryland would be blood red.

Well, we could be in Florida. Speaking of which, how are your parents doing?


They're fine. Terrible at videoconferencing as always. They put their tablet in their lap so we're looking up their noses and at the ceiling. I'm trying to train them.
Mom starts chemo on Tuesday. That part has me on pins and needles.
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Re: Conoravirus ...

Postby kimbottles » Sat Apr 04, 2020 7:24 pm

“ For many of us, changing one's mind is a sign of weakness. It is viewed as showing disloyalty to those who share your opinions, a form of abandoning the tribe to which one belongs. Tribes are defined and delimited by their belief set. One could say the same thing of religions. ”

Well that explains a lot, I have changed my mind on a ton of things over the last twenty years. That must be why I am tribe-less and shun organized religion. Makes it really hard to join a political party too.
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Re: Conoravirus ...

Postby Benno von Humpback » Sat Apr 04, 2020 7:37 pm

Ajax wrote:
Benno von Humpback wrote:
Ajax wrote:
Benno von Humpback wrote:
Olaf Hart wrote:Unfortunately the COVID outbreak has led to outbreaks of another disease as well

http://thesciencepost.com/outbreak-of-d ... 50-states/

It's endemic here.


Ha, if that were real Maryland would be blood red.

Well, we could be in Florida. Speaking of which, how are your parents doing?


They're fine. Terrible at videoconferencing as always. They put their tablet in their lap so we're looking up their noses and at the ceiling. I'm trying to train them.
Mom starts chemo on Tuesday. That part has me on pins and needles.

Well, there's no really great time for that project. I'll be thinking of both of you.
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Re: Conoravirus ...

Postby Chris Chesley » Sat Apr 04, 2020 7:44 pm

Thoughts for a Saturday afternoon....

Give me liberty or give me death - Patrick Henry

I would rather die from a natural virus, than the worst virus in history: THE POLITICAL VIRUS,

This virus destroys your free will, it scares humans of life itself,

It takes most of the human production without producing anything itself,

It lies, cheats, and steals without any regard for decency and justice,



It’s hunger for more and more power cannot be satisfied until it chokes its host to actual death or servitude.

It makes its own laws to protect itself, both legally and financially’

It finds the humans with the least resistance, and converts them to join his viral club.

Political parties mean nothing, the virus enjoys and uses them to split the public into ridiculous camps discussing ridiculous subjects.

This virus is embedded in our educational system, where any dissent against “virus approved” opinions are terminated.

The virus controls through fear for the masses, and exorbitant pensions, and salaries, for the carriers.

And finally, this virus is attacking and trying to destroy the greatest declaration in the history of humanity, against it. In case you haven’t figured out, it’s the undivided “Declaration of Independence”, and the “Constitution of the United States”.

Wake up Americans, don’t let this scam fool you. Our forefathers warned us:

"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." - Benjamin Franklin

-- Norb Svanascini

(my sentiments, not my words)
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Re: Conoravirus ...

Postby Olaf Hart » Sat Apr 04, 2020 8:55 pm

Our six year old grandsons first email.

He did this himself, we were on FaceTime talking to his parents at the time.

7B1190EA-79E4-4BB2-9D23-928ADCFA122B.jpeg


I know I don’t have to say this here, but please don’t link or repost this.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
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Re: Conoravirus ...

Postby BeauV » Sat Apr 04, 2020 9:55 pm

Chris,

I really don't understand people who want to anthropomorphize a chain of RNA. "The Virus" doesn't do anything intentionally, It can't think, and many scientists don't believe it's "alive" in any real sense of the word. It's a complex chemical that causes our cells to go nuts and reproduce more of it. The way we respond to it is on us, not the responsibility of a non-sentient chemical. The "virus" doesn't make us do anything. What we choose to do is of our own doing.

There are entirely rational ways to respond to a flood of dangerous chemicals flowing through our society. If we think of it this way as if there was a flood of toxic gas flooding our cities and towns, we might respond with a lot less emotion and a lot more careful thought.
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Re: Conoravirus ...

Postby Chris Chesley » Sat Apr 04, 2020 10:17 pm

Read it again Beau....

It wasn't talking about the Corona Virus per se...
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Re: Conoravirus ...

Postby BeauV » Sun Apr 05, 2020 1:11 am

Chris Chesley wrote:Read it again Beau....

It wasn't talking about the Corona Virus per se...


Well, ok. I probably read it with a certain perspective. Maybe some people fail to be sentient beings. :)

But “This virus ——- “ (fill in the blank) sure get ascribed a lot more intentionality than I think a chemical deserves.
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Re: Conoravirus ...

Postby Chris Chesley » Sun Apr 05, 2020 7:58 am

BeauV wrote:
Chris Chesley wrote:Read it again Beau....

It wasn't talking about the Corona Virus per se...


Well, ok. I probably read it with a certain perspective. Maybe some people fail to be sentient beings. :)

But “This virus ——- “ (fill in the blank) sure get ascribed a lot more intentionality than I think a chemical deserves.



I think we're all pretty well done with most anything 'viral'....
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Re: Conoravirus ...

Postby Benno von Humpback » Sun Apr 05, 2020 8:05 am

Another state by state prediction site with three different social control scenarios. Not clear if it’s really different from the UW model or when the last run was.

https://covidactnow.org/
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Re: Conoravirus ...

Postby Tim Ford » Sun Apr 05, 2020 8:42 am

BeauV wrote:Chris,
"The Virus" doesn't do anything intentionally, It can't think, and many scientists don't believe it's "alive" in any real sense of the word. It's a complex chemical that causes our cells to go nuts and reproduce more of it.


Good topic to bring up....been thinking about this a lot lately.

I took Electron Microscopy (BIOL 340 I think it was) back in the late 70's. The Holy Grail was trying to get a shot of a bacteriophage in flagrante delicto, attached to a bacterium.

We had a lot of conversations on what was "driving" the phage....was it a "life force" or strictly biophysics, e.g, the electro-chemical interaction of proteins, receptors and reception sites. Our instructor, a younger cell biology guy, complete atheist and very lefty kind of bloke, was convinced these are far more sophisticated little beasties than just a mash-up of dangerous chemicals and indeed, had a life!

Prions are "chemicals."

Then one day, about 10 years later, we had a grad student who was getting ready to defend. He and I were wrapping up about a billion B/W photos (mostly of electrophoresis gels) for inclusion in his dissertation and he had a bit of a meltdown. He was from a Egyptian Christian family, Copts, and he said he could not go through with his defense which was the next day! Tears and desperation time.

Reason: the reductionist nature of molecular biology had led him so far afield from what his true interest was: what is it that drives LIFE. My co-worker and I were able to calm him down, telling him, hey, worry about that after you defend and don't waist the last 5 years of your life on some kind of crisis of conscience.

The next day he made it through his defense, but the interaction had quite an effect on me and to this day, I wonder what compels a virus, what motivates a jellyfish, what gets a bird to migrate 10,000 miles and why the hell I should even bother getting out of bed.

The great mystery....Einstein was a big fan of this, too, from what I hear.
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Re: Conoravirus ...

Postby Benno von Humpback » Sun Apr 05, 2020 9:22 am

Tim Ford wrote:
BeauV wrote:Chris,
"The Virus" doesn't do anything intentionally, It can't think, and many scientists don't believe it's "alive" in any real sense of the word. It's a complex chemical that causes our cells to go nuts and reproduce more of it.


Good topic to bring up....been thinking about this a lot lately.

I took Electron Microscopy (BIOL 340 I think it was) back in the late 70's. The Holy Grail was trying to get a shot of a bacteriophage in flagrante delicto, attached to a bacterium.

We had a lot of conversations on what was "driving" the phage....was it a "life force" or strictly biophysics, e.g, the electro-chemical interaction of proteins, receptors and reception sites. Our instructor, a younger cell biology guy, complete atheist and very lefty kind of bloke, was convinced these are far more sophisticated little beasties than just a mash-up of dangerous chemicals and indeed, had a life!

Prions are "chemicals."

Then one day, about 10 years later, we had a grad student who was getting ready to defend. He and I were wrapping up about a billion B/W photos (mostly of electrophoresis gels) for inclusion in his dissertation and he had a bit of a meltdown. He was from a Egyptian Christian family, Copts, and he said he could not go through with his defense which was the next day! Tears and desperation time.

Reason: the reductionist nature of molecular biology had led him so far afield from what his true interest was: what is it that drives LIFE. My co-worker and I were able to calm him down, telling him, hey, worry about that after you defend and don't waist the last 5 years of your life on some kind of crisis of conscience.

The next day he made it through his defense, but the interaction had quite an effect on me and to this day, I wonder what compels a virus, what motivates a jellyfish, what gets a bird to migrate 10,000 miles and why the hell I should even bother getting out of bed.

The great mystery....Einstein was a big fan of this, too, from what I hear.

To paraphrase Keats, thermodynamics is all ye know on earth and all ye need to know.
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Re: Conoravirus ...

Postby kimbottles » Sun Apr 05, 2020 10:38 am

“and why the hell I should even bother getting out of bed.”

To get breakfast!
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Re: Conoravirus ...

Postby Jamie » Sun Apr 05, 2020 11:03 am

When you throw trillions of coins in the air for billions of years, interesting things happen.
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Re: Conoravirus ...

Postby Chris Chesley » Sun Apr 05, 2020 1:11 pm

OHhhhh! Chit! Who coulda seen this one coming??? /s

(btw, forget the source, just tell me 'it was worth it'.... No sir! It was /is NOT worth the pain that's coming)

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/we- ... tate-taxes
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Re: Conoravirus ...

Postby Tim Ford » Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:17 pm

Benno von Humpback wrote:
Tim Ford wrote:
BeauV wrote:Chris,
"The Virus" doesn't do anything intentionally, It can't think, and many scientists don't believe it's "alive" in any real sense of the word. It's a complex chemical that causes our cells to go nuts and reproduce more of it.


Good topic to bring up....been thinking about this a lot lately.

I took Electron Microscopy (BIOL 340 I think it was) back in the late 70's. The Holy Grail was trying to get a shot of a bacteriophage in flagrante delicto, attached to a bacterium.

We had a lot of conversations on what was "driving" the phage....was it a "life force" or strictly biophysics, e.g, the electro-chemical interaction of proteins, receptors and reception sites. Our instructor, a younger cell biology guy, complete atheist and very lefty kind of bloke, was convinced these are far more sophisticated little beasties than just a mash-up of dangerous chemicals and indeed, had a life!

Prions are "chemicals."

Then one day, about 10 years later, we had a grad student who was getting ready to defend. He and I were wrapping up about a billion B/W photos (mostly of electrophoresis gels) for inclusion in his dissertation and he had a bit of a meltdown. He was from a Egyptian Christian family, Copts, and he said he could not go through with his defense which was the next day! Tears and desperation time.

Reason: the reductionist nature of molecular biology had led him so far afield from what his true interest was: what is it that drives LIFE. My co-worker and I were able to calm him down, telling him, hey, worry about that after you defend and don't waist the last 5 years of your life on some kind of crisis of conscience.

The next day he made it through his defense, but the interaction had quite an effect on me and to this day, I wonder what compels a virus, what motivates a jellyfish, what gets a bird to migrate 10,000 miles and why the hell I should even bother getting out of bed.

The great mystery....Einstein was a big fan of this, too, from what I hear.

To paraphrase Keats, thermodynamics is all ye know on earth and all ye need to know.


Well, there is one thing that I do know: Ein Virus kennt keine Moral

that and there's a lot of ruins in Mesopotamia....
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Re: Conoravirus ...

Postby Olaf Hart » Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:26 pm

Tim Ford wrote:
BeauV wrote:Chris,
"The Virus" doesn't do anything intentionally, It can't think, and many scientists don't believe it's "alive" in any real sense of the word. It's a complex chemical that causes our cells to go nuts and reproduce more of it.


Good topic to bring up....been thinking about this a lot lately.

I took Electron Microscopy (BIOL 340 I think it was) back in the late 70's. The Holy Grail was trying to get a shot of a bacteriophage in flagrante delicto, attached to a bacterium.

We had a lot of conversations on what was "driving" the phage....was it a "life force" or strictly biophysics, e.g, the electro-chemical interaction of proteins, receptors and reception sites. Our instructor, a younger cell biology guy, complete atheist and very lefty kind of bloke, was convinced these are far more sophisticated little beasties than just a mash-up of dangerous chemicals and indeed, had a life!

Prions are "chemicals."

Then one day, about 10 years later, we had a grad student who was getting ready to defend. He and I were wrapping up about a billion B/W photos (mostly of electrophoresis gels) for inclusion in his dissertation and he had a bit of a meltdown. He was from a Egyptian Christian family, Copts, and he said he could not go through with his defense which was the next day! Tears and desperation time.

Reason: the reductionist nature of molecular biology had led him so far afield from what his true interest was: what is it that drives LIFE. My co-worker and I were able to calm him down, telling him, hey, worry about that after you defend and don't waist the last 5 years of your life on some kind of crisis of conscience.

The next day he made it through his defense, but the interaction had quite an effect on me and to this day, I wonder what compels a virus, what motivates a jellyfish, what gets a bird to migrate 10,000 miles and why the hell I should even bother getting out of bed.

The great mystery....Einstein was a big fan of this, too, from what I hear.


Every living thing is just a bundle of Nucleic Acid trying to replicate.

And follow the money...
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Re: Conoravirus ...

Postby Tim Ford » Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:28 pm

Chris Chesley wrote:OHhhhh! Chit! Who coulda seen this one coming??? /s

(btw, forget the source, just tell me 'it was worth it'.... No sir! It was /is NOT worth the pain that's coming)

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/we- ... tate-taxes


Chris, the Baltimore politicians (read: Baltimore kleptocracy) is already bitching about how much in the hole they already are. (but somehow 25- 50 M USD will disappear down some rabbit hole and the One Party City will not bat an eye)

But yeah, I think the article you cite has seen the future and it ain't pretty. There will be pain.

It will be nice to get on a boat and take a break from all this. One day.
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Re: Conoravirus ...

Postby Benno von Humpback » Sun Apr 05, 2020 5:14 pm

Chris Chesley wrote:OHhhhh! Chit! Who coulda seen this one coming??? /s

(btw, forget the source, just tell me 'it was worth it'.... No sir! It was /is NOT worth the pain that's coming)

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/we- ... tate-taxes

So, you believe the potential effect on the spread of the virus isn’t worth the economic cost of closing businesses? Just want to know where you stand and why you’re posting these things.
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Re: Conoravirus ...

Postby Chris Chesley » Sun Apr 05, 2020 6:30 pm

Benno von Humpback wrote:
Chris Chesley wrote:OHhhhh! Chit! Who coulda seen this one coming??? /s

(btw, forget the source, just tell me 'it was worth it'.... No sir! It was /is NOT worth the pain that's coming)

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/we- ... tate-taxes

So, you believe the potential effect on the spread of the virus isn’t worth the economic cost of closing businesses? Just want to know where you stand and why you’re posting these things.


I'm saying that the long term economic costs will ALSO have far greater consequences on lives, life and health than most people are considering. While it may be impolitic to be seen in any way to place dollars over lives, I do not think it's quite so simple a trade off as that. There are other causes of death that we routinely defer with a fully functioning society that will increase because our society will not be fully functioning for years to come. The follow-on consequences of a faltering distribution system and economic distress will cause increased loss of life over time. Civil unrest, rising crime, despair and suicide will also cause increased loss of life. No one can yet predict authoritatively what that cost will be. It's my belief that we will be horrified at what is coming after the viral curve has been flattened and I see focus of only the 'immediate now' of 30 or 60 days as being unwise.
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Re: Conoravirus ...

Postby Benno von Humpback » Sun Apr 05, 2020 7:39 pm

Chris Chesley wrote:
Benno von Humpback wrote:
Chris Chesley wrote:OHhhhh! Chit! Who coulda seen this one coming??? /s

(btw, forget the source, just tell me 'it was worth it'.... No sir! It was /is NOT worth the pain that's coming)

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/we- ... tate-taxes

So, you believe the potential effect on the spread of the virus isn’t worth the economic cost of closing businesses? Just want to know where you stand and why you’re posting these things.


I'm saying that the long term economic costs will ALSO have far greater consequences on lives, life and health than most people are considering. While it may be impolitic to be seen in any way to place dollars over lives, I do not think it's quite so simple a trade off as that. There are other causes of death that we routinely defer with a fully functioning society that will increase because our society will not be fully functioning for years to come. The follow-on consequences of a faltering distribution system and economic distress will cause increased loss of life over time. Civil unrest, rising crime, despair and suicide will also cause increased loss of life. No one can yet predict authoritatively what that cost will be. It's my belief that we will be horrified at what is coming after the viral curve has been flattened and I see focus of only the 'immediate now' of 30 or 60 days as being unwise.


Thanks. I too believe there will be lasting damage to the economy, which will cause significant toll of human suffering. As you point out, we trade lives against dollars all the time in every other area of health and safety regulation and we will undoubtedly do so here too. There seems to quite a bit of hysteria on both sides about this issue. The only comment I would add on the merits is that a lingering pandemic will be nearly as bad, and maybe worse in the long run, for the economy than a few months of stay-at-home.
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Re: Conoravirus ...

Postby kimbottles » Sun Apr 05, 2020 7:57 pm

Benno von Humpback wrote:
Chris Chesley wrote:
Benno von Humpback wrote:
Chris Chesley wrote:OHhhhh! Chit! Who coulda seen this one coming??? /s

(btw, forget the source, just tell me 'it was worth it'.... No sir! It was /is NOT worth the pain that's coming)

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/we- ... tate-taxes

So, you believe the potential effect on the spread of the virus isn’t worth the economic cost of closing businesses? Just want to know where you stand and why you’re posting these things.


I'm saying that the long term economic costs will ALSO have far greater consequences on lives, life and health than most people are considering. While it may be impolitic to be seen in any way to place dollars over lives, I do not think it's quite so simple a trade off as that. There are other causes of death that we routinely defer with a fully functioning society that will increase because our society will not be fully functioning for years to come. The follow-on consequences of a faltering distribution system and economic distress will cause increased loss of life over time. Civil unrest, rising crime, despair and suicide will also cause increased loss of life. No one can yet predict authoritatively what that cost will be. It's my belief that we will be horrified at what is coming after the viral curve has been flattened and I see focus of only the 'immediate now' of 30 or 60 days as being unwise.


Thanks. I too believe there will be lasting damage to the economy, which will cause significant toll of human suffering. As you point out, we trade lives against dollars all the time in every other area of health and safety regulation and we will undoubtedly do so here too. There seems to quite a bit of hysteria on both sides about this issue. The only comment I would add on the merits is that a lingering pandemic will be nearly as bad, and maybe worse in the long run, for the economy than a few months of stay-at-home.
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Re: Conoravirus ...

Postby Chris Chesley » Sun Apr 05, 2020 8:28 pm

Benno von Humpback wrote:
Chris Chesley wrote:
Benno von Humpback wrote:
Chris Chesley wrote:OHhhhh! Chit! Who coulda seen this one coming??? /s

(btw, forget the source, just tell me 'it was worth it'.... No sir! It was /is NOT worth the pain that's coming)

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/we- ... tate-taxes

So, you believe the potential effect on the spread of the virus isn’t worth the economic cost of closing businesses? Just want to know where you stand and why you’re posting these things.


I'm saying that the long term economic costs will ALSO have far greater consequences on lives, life and health than most people are considering. While it may be impolitic to be seen in any way to place dollars over lives, I do not think it's quite so simple a trade off as that. There are other causes of death that we routinely defer with a fully functioning society that will increase because our society will not be fully functioning for years to come. The follow-on consequences of a faltering distribution system and economic distress will cause increased loss of life over time. Civil unrest, rising crime, despair and suicide will also cause increased loss of life. No one can yet predict authoritatively what that cost will be. It's my belief that we will be horrified at what is coming after the viral curve has been flattened and I see focus of only the 'immediate now' of 30 or 60 days as being unwise.


Thanks. I too believe there will be lasting damage to the economy, which will cause significant toll of human suffering. As you point out, we trade lives against dollars all the time in every other area of health and safety regulation and we will undoubtedly do so here too. There seems to quite a bit of hysteria on both sides about this issue. The only comment I would add on the merits is that a lingering pandemic will be nearly as bad, and maybe worse in the long run, for the economy than a few months of stay-at-home.


Where I'm having a challenge is envisioning how it can be any less lingering with our current approach. All evidence is that while this initial desire to flatten the curve appears to be having somewhat of a desired effect, we all know that ultimately, once this initial period is finished and restrictions lifted, the virus will come back in the proverbial 2nd wave. So my question is what then? Do we Rinse, Repeat this cycle? If so, what about the subsequent 3rd wave. If we seek to avoid these subsequent waves, we'll have to prolong our lock down approach with the net result being the dreaded 'lingering' that you rightly are concerned about. I don't see a way out of it.

The only real way to mitigate subsequent waves is to apply the lessons we're learning in our current 'crash course'. i.e. Keep patients from going critical and into ICU / ventilators. Use the hydroxy chloroquine /Z pack approach early on anyone who is crashing during their 2nd week. We need to better understand whether / how the apparent asymptomatic infections occur. I suspect that it's less about being asymptomatic than about having a better, more sensitive testing regimen. These type of answers will help us find a new normal in the future as this virus will likely be with us for some time to come--even our lifetimes.

Meanwhile, whether we take a massive hit upfront or prolong it, the economic fallout is already baked in. This cannot be a V shaped recovery in 2-4 months, the damage has already been severe. Once a business has burned its capital by trying to stay alive, there will not be anything left to restart a business in the future. Payroll protection programs not withstanding. This, coupled with significantly changed social and buying patterns, present almost insurmountable challenges for the vast majority.

I read an article this week whose premise is that we (all businesses) are going to essentially be 'start up' businesses again. We cannot go forward on the same assumptions and paradigms that defined our businesses in the pre-COVID19 era.
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Re: Conoravirus ...

Postby Olaf Hart » Sun Apr 05, 2020 8:32 pm

We were heading for a negative growth economy anyway, the gradual slide from 2008 was disguised by small ups and downs, but at some time we have to put human benefit before economic benefit.

The fallacies of free market economics are already recognised, it’s time to put gross domestic happiness before gross domestic product.

I am reasonable optimistic about our future after this mess...
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Re: Conoravirus ...

Postby Jamie » Sun Apr 05, 2020 9:06 pm

The only comment I would add on the merits is that a lingering pandemic will be nearly as bad, and maybe worse in the long run, for the economy than a few months of stay-at-home.


This.

Often times these "economic" analyses only look at short term economic cost - which is this case will be several trillions by the time we're done in the short-term - and ignore the long term cost of social and economic disruption of lost lives and lost quality of life for those that get seriously ill and survive, the avoidable deaths and long-term injury cause by overloaded health systems - impacts which are often generational. If we want to use a war-time example - the last Civil War pensions were still being paid out in 2017. These costs have a direct negative impact on the country's long-term economic potential. This is the cost that the, "let it run its course" folks ignore. I fear the decentralized and inconsistent approach taken by the US will only extend the pain and damage both short and long term.
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Re: Conoravirus ...

Postby Panope » Sun Apr 05, 2020 11:41 pm

Tim Ford wrote:
Well, there is one thing that I do know: Ein Virus kennt keine Moral

that and there's a lot of ruins in Mesopotamia....


Six or eight thousand years ago

They laid down the law.........
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Re: Conoravirus ...

Postby BeauV » Mon Apr 06, 2020 5:50 am

Chris,

The difficulty with your concern is you seem to ignore the time which is bought by the lockdown, flattening the curve, whatever; and what can be accomplished in that time.

If the medical community wasn't doing anything, if we really only had the shoddy testing capabilities we have now, the nearly complete lack of any drugs to address the virus, and physical separation being our only defense, then I'd agree with you.

But in the coming weeks/months we will have:
- Massively better testing, it's starting to roll out now from Abbot Labs and unlike the others, they know what they're doing.
- We will actually have data on the drugs we currently have that are safe or semi-safe because early controlled trials will be complete. There are many many more than just malaria drugs and a z-pac
- We may have a vaccine before a second wave, or not, but we'll be a hell of a lot closer.
- We will have some idea if the early survivors retain their immunity or not, something we don't yet know.
- We will actually know, as opposed to guesses we're using now, how this is actually spread by what we think are asymptomatic people.

Taking the "burn itself out fast" strategy only makes sense if one believes we won't learn anything new which matters during the time we buy by delaying the disease. The flaw in the arguments that support that approach is this often unstated assumption.

For example, my UCSF buddies have told me that there are more than 15 separate vaccine trials going on simultaneously in mice, seven of them are showing great results. Will they take 18 months to reach mass use? Maybe, but once again, it would be a mistake to assume that the only solution is inject a bunch of eggs and grow some vaccine. There is a gigantic risk of rolling out a vaccine without proper testing, but again this is a crazy time and shortening testing or accepting a worse set of bad side effects may be fine. Let's not assume, without back up data, that the technological limitation of the 1950s still exists as another unstated assumption in the argument.

If we put a comparatively tiny amount of money into accelerating Abbot Labs' test boxes, we could test everyone; and do so repeatedly. That alone would alter our actions substantially.

Will there be financial consequences for this? Sure. Will they be sustained for decades? NO, not even close. We just got done spending $2.4 Trillion on the war in Iraq and Afganistan (SOURCE CBO) and we didn't destroy the economy. Will the economy be different after this? Sure. What will it look like? I don't think anyone knows.

It's clear that large corporations can tap the US Gov for help much more effectively than small businesses, but the damage being done to small businesses in an election year is NOT lost on the US Congress. How often have you seen the House and Senate move a bill this big this fast? It's been years, maybe even decades.

As a retired investor here's my view of the economic impact of this informed by a 30-day crash course on the medical side and over 40 years working on businesses large and small.

- The disease will be freaking terrible for the next two-three months and then fade. We don't know if there will be a second and third wave, as there was in the 1918 flu. We do know about the 1918 flu and we should assume the medical industry is a bit more effective than it was in 1918.
- In the short term, the various governments will not be able to do much about the economy other than "look" like they are doing things. Some folks aren't going to get their checks until September. Those checks aren't big enough. The small business forgivable loans aren't moving yet because the rules aren't written. etc... So the true economic stimulus really can't arrive until about July. During that time, everything will be getting worse. There will be massive demands for an economic stimulus that is two or three times the size of the one already approved. It'll pass and that second wave of stimulus won't arrive until the fall. This is partially human nature and partially the folks in Washington wanting to get re-elected because by then the voters will be REALLY PISSED OFF.
- There is a very good chance that the combination of better medical skills than we had in 1918 and a lot of people developing immunity prior to October will result in the "second wave" being smaller than the first wave by a lot. So things won't be as bad as everyone thinks they will be as we go through the summer and are clamoring for more stimulus.
- The second big stimulus will arrive in time for the elections in November and the economy will take off like it has been shot out of a cannon.
- In the summer of 2021, we'll be worried about the economy overheating and we will have reports of massive fraud within the system that is trying to spray a firehose of money into the economy just when we have controlled or corraled the disease.
- We will increase the national debt by four or five trillion dollars. Put another way, by the cost of two or three more middle east wars. It won't break the economy.

The shorter summary is: This disease will spike in the next 60 days and then fade. It takes the Gov a long time to act, so the stimulus will arrive after the disease has mostly passed. The stimulus will be much bigger than it should be for political reasons, so the economy will go bonkers and we will be booming by late 2021 and through 2022 as we try to ween everyone off of free money.

Fortunes will be made during 2022 by those who didn't blink in 2020. This will be one of the largest buying opportunities of our lifetime, perhaps ever. I'll even go out on a limb to say that the smart money will start to buy as the terrible news arrives towards the end of June and into July.

If you would like to ponder what the "smart money" thinks about all this, you can use the Options Market and simply plot the cost of an option on the Dow Industrials for October, as one example. The cost of that option is already MUCH higher than it usually is, indicating that the smart money thinks the economy will be rolling by then. If the option price continues to rise, it'll confirm what I'm proposing. Research has shown that in catastrophic times the outrageous premiums which options receive are worth it. Said another way, even the "smart money" underestimates how rapidly the market and economy will turn upward. You can also lose your ass playing the options market. Be warned. But, it is a great indicator that most folks don't consider.

Here's a simple thing to do about all this. Refinance your house. While interest rates are effectively well below the inflation rate, lever up. At the very least don't be shy about hauling in as much free money as the government will give you in forgivable debt and stupid low interest rates.
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Re: Conoravirus ...

Postby Olaf Hart » Mon Apr 06, 2020 6:15 am

So Oz has started to publish total figures, they are pretty reliable, we seem to have the highest testing rate and negative result rates in the world

With over 5000 cases our death rate is around 0.7%, and around 40% are now classified as recovered.
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Re: Conoravirus ...

Postby Benno von Humpback » Mon Apr 06, 2020 6:37 am

Wife just applied for a loan to try and save her practice. The process was difficult. We’ll see if it comes through.
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