Conoravirus ...

[Ajax]

... we have been watching this with some concern before there were any reported local cases. We started slowly filling the cabinets and freezer chest and upping cleaning and hand washing before it was cool.

Yay, I'm not crazy! I did the same thing and the only person who believed in me was my wife. I was made to feel like a conspiracy theory crack-pot.
My own kids didn't criticize me but they politely ignored me until shit got real.

[Slick470]

Rich, I started asking the leadership at my company about what if scenarios pretty early on and generally got "that won't happen here" type responses... and then it did. Both Sarah and I were cautiously watching and hoping they were right while planning for if they weren't.

By the time the schools had closed and my company had allowed for full time telework, we were pretty well stocked up so that we could have gone 2-3 weeks without needing to go to the store. We still did to get stuff that doesn't keep that long.

Being well prepared isn't crazy. I think your typical doomsday "Preppers" are by and large nuts, but I don't think prepping in general isn't. There is a line not to cross in there somewhere.

[Ajax]

Well, I'm not out there burying shipping containers in the back yard to make a bunker.

[Slick470]

Well, I'm not out there burying shipping containers in the back yard to make a bunker.

yet...

[Jamie]

Preppers

[BeauV]

Another point. To stop isolating isn't really a policy decision.

First, in my state the stay-at-home order is an "advisory." Technically it's our choice. Second, even if an order were lifted, would people just start believing that it's safe to congregate with other people? I wouldn't, and I imagine this is true of many others. Our contributions to the economy wouldn't come back until we feel safe.

Keith,

To provide a bit of data to this point. We have a Club with over 2,000 members. In polling them, fewer than 5% said they would return to the Clubhouse as soon as the authorities said it was "ok". Even in a state were many folks trust the government, there is a deep distrust based on the obvious willingness that various governments around the country have exhibited to put business success ahead of population safety. In a world where people feel it's "every man for himself" only the desperate will put themselves and their loved ones at risk.

To put it bluntly, as you said everyone will make their own decisions. As a result, a "recovery" will be based upon the public's trust in the authorities and even more on the trust they have in the places they choose to go. It has become clear that providing detailed instructions based upon the best science available will influence the vast majority of consumers.

[Olaf Hart]

Mandatory rules are only as effective as their enforcement, and encourage finding loopholes.

I have this issue with “standards” rather than ethics, standards imply anything not specified is OK, ethics require us to act consistently to an expected level.

I suspect more people comply with “ advisory” guidelines than they do with “ mandatory” ones.

[Steele]

In an odd way this is a worry for me as we analyze the effect of our Southern states opening even though cases in their cities are still increasing. Many citizens will stay home so the data may look better than it should, leading to declarations of success that are not applicable to a return to normal. I also have had many conversations about death rates being incomplete, but so far still the most reliable data. Deaths lag the intial infection by weeks, making things look better than they are as the illness accelerates in a local area. Both factors could make figuring out what is happening in states with loosening restrictions hard.

[LarryHoward]

In an odd way this is a worry for me as we analyze the effect of our Southern states opening even though cases in their cities are still increasing. Many citizens will stay home so the data may look better than it should, leading to declarations of success that are not applicable to a return to normal. I also have had many conversations about death rates being incomplete, but so far still the most reliable data. Deaths lag the intial infection by weeks, making things look better than they are as the illness accelerates in a local area. Both factors could make figuring out what is happening in states with loosening restrictions hard.

All good thoughts but there are clearly regional and population density differences in how this is playing out. Down here we have 140 cases out of 113k people and as of this morning 6 deaths and a clear reduction in daily increases despite a large number of “essential” businesses. Folks are all wearing masks when in close company and stores are limiting Depending on what data folks choose to believe, places like Florida are in a lot better shape than NY (roughly equal population, much lower case rate and fatality numbers, but current and projected). I do see very politically biased blue/red opinions out there and beaches with “social distancing” are bad but parks are not. Florida is also not predicted to overload hospital capacity.

Risks and likelihood of trying to return to normal too soon? Absolutely. On the other hand, I’ve seen the “we may be in the same storm but we are not all in the same boat.” meme. Most of us here can ride out the storm in relative comfort with damage limited to retirement accounts or other investments. A very significant number of Americans are in leaky dinghies or clinging to flotsam and trying to survive. We all need to be careful not to judge their actions too harshly while sipping fine wine.

[kimbottles]

In an odd way this is a worry for me as we analyze the effect of our Southern states opening even though cases in their cities are still increasing. Many citizens will stay home so the data may look better than it should, leading to declarations of success that are not applicable to a return to normal. I also have had many conversations about death rates being incomplete, but so far still the most reliable data. Deaths lag the intial infection by weeks, making things look better than they are as the illness accelerates in a local area. Both factors could make figuring out what is happening in states with loosening restrictions hard.

All good thoughts but there are clearly regional and population density differences in how this is playing out. Down here we have 140 cases out of 113k people and as of this morning 6 deaths and a clear reduction in daily increases despite a large number of “essential” businesses. Folks are all wearing masks when in close company and stores are limiting Depending on what data folks choose to believe, places like Florida are in a lot better shape than NY (roughly equal population, much lower case rate and fatality numbers, but current and projected). I do see very politically biased blue/red opinions out there and beaches with “social distancing” are bad but parks are not. Florida is also not predicted to overload hospital capacity.

Risks and likelihood of trying to return to normal too soon? Absolutely. On the other hand, I’ve seen the “we may be in the same storm but we are not all in the same boat.” meme. Most of us here can ride out the storm in relative comfort with damage limited to retirement accounts or other investments. A very significant number of Americans are in leaky dinghies or clinging to flotsam and trying to survive. We all need to be careful not to judge their actions too harshly while sipping fine wine.

Well said Captain!

[Benno von Humpback]

In an odd way this is a worry for me as we analyze the effect of our Southern states opening even though cases in their cities are still increasing. Many citizens will stay home so the data may look better than it should, leading to declarations of success that are not applicable to a return to normal. I also have had many conversations about death rates being incomplete, but so far still the most reliable data. Deaths lag the intial infection by weeks, making things look better than they are as the illness accelerates in a local area. Both factors could make figuring out what is happening in states with loosening restrictions hard.

All good thoughts but there are clearly regional and population density differences in how this is playing out. Down here we have 140 cases out of 113k people and as of this morning 6 deaths and a clear reduction in daily increases despite a large number of “essential” businesses. Folks are all wearing masks when in close company and stores are limiting Depending on what data folks choose to believe, places like Florida are in a lot better shape than NY (roughly equal population, much lower case rate and fatality numbers, but current and projected). I do see very politically biased blue/red opinions out there and beaches with “social distancing” are bad but parks are not. Florida is also not predicted to overload hospital capacity.

Risks and likelihood of trying to return to normal too soon? Absolutely. On the other hand, I’ve seen the “we may be in the same storm but we are not all in the same boat.” meme. Most of us here can ride out the storm in relative comfort with damage limited to retirement accounts or other investments. A very significant number of Americans are in leaky dinghies or clinging to flotsam and trying to survive. We all need to be careful not to judge their actions too harshly while sipping fine wine.

The mainstream coverage of the looser states has been little short of ghoulish and yes, they are going to be disappointed with the outcome because of what you guys say and the overriding fact that nothing clinical is ever clear cut.

[Jamie]

The deaths are slowly beginning to infiltrate my 6 degrees of separation. No one I know has died, yet, but I now know people who have had relatives that have passed. I know numerous people who have had serious economic impacts. Some who are in a position to help, are doing so despite this, others aren't able.

[BeauV]

To Larry's point:

Average credit card debt in America = $16,000 Source
Average Income in America = $90,000
Median Income in America = $60,000 (without those pesky 10%ers dragging the Average up.

If we assume that most 10%ers don't have credit card debt which they are unable to pay off every month, then it's reasonable to assume that the average American is carrying a 16% CCdebt/cashflow load. Of course, this doesn't include the debt for Auto, Home, etc.....

"The median household income hit $61,372 in 2017, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. That’s almost $20,000 more than it was in 2000. But the typical American household now carries an average debt of $137,063. The median debt was only $50,971 in 2000." Source (These folks mix "median" and "average" up quite a lot.)

In any event, if we do the math based on mean in both cases the average (mean) household is carrying a 56% Debt/Cashflow ration. That is an absurd level of debt for anyone to carry.

Just as companies with high levels of debt and small amounts of cash have trouble in any economic downturn, let alone the worst downturn in over 90 years, individuals who are this indebted will be crushed by the downturn.

So, how about assets. Income isn't everything especially if you're retired.

If we include retirement funds it's still terrible. Two reasons, first almost all the retirement funds are invested and if they were at all aggressive they are down about 20% this year to date. In the graph below, you can see what the average is and what it is broken out by age group. Second, savings accounts outside of retirement funds are a paltry average of $40,000.

What this means is that the debt/asset ratio is a shocking 100%. Despite decades of trying to get people to build up assets for retirement or bad times, Americans (on average) have every dollar of savings offset by a dollar of debt. It is much much worse for the median family with more debt and fewer assets. A decade of "good times" have lulled folks into believing that their home prices never go down (Zillow says ours has dropped 28% in the last year), that their 401k is safe (despite being invested in the market), and that they'll be just fine.

Now, they find that they are utterly unprepared for any downturn, let alone one of this size, depth, and duration. Bankrupcies are going to go through the roof, primarily because folks have been living paycheck to paycheck for a long time and have no safety net.

[Jamie]

Yet those with debt are spending at velocity great than one and look at the this: Money supply high and velocity low.



The balance sheet of assets under management in the top 6 banks in the US under management is something like 2x what it was in 2007 corp earning were flat before we even got into this kerfluffle. I won't pretend I understand this all, but it looks like this will be exciting.

[kdh]

Interesting times.

Our government is printing money, but other governments are as well, as the pandemic is global.

In the scheme of things there isn't the run-on-the-banks style of panic we had in 2008 and unlike then, banks seem to have been well behaved in that they don't own a lot of shitty mortgage or other shitty debt. The shitty debt is owned by investors, as it should be. The Volker rule in action.

We're turning off the economy (no one gets paid from those who can't pay) until we get the virus licked, then we'll turn it back on. Could work.

We'll see what the future brings.

[Olaf Hart]

So the government here in Oz has just launched a mobile phone app that registers the contact details of any phone that comes within 1.5 meters of your phone, and keeps the details on your phone for 21 days.

Runs on Bluetooth.

The idea is if you become positive for the virus, it is easy to trace your contacts for the last three weeks.

There are some privacy warriors making noises, and I guess it could be hacked, but it seems like a good idea and we plan to download it.

[Olaf Hart]

Interesting piece on Iceland, as an island they have similar advantages to Australia, and its interesting to note our favourable response is also based on widespread testing...

https://youtu.be/DCvV1u4a2LI

[Benno von Humpback]

Had a talk yesterday with one of our dock mates, who leads an epidemiology group at the NCI. He thinks the antibody tests are crap and is waiting for the field to shake out before believes anything.

He likes IF lambda for treatment. Sounds a wee bit speculative to me.

[Ajax]

Man, we are just a bunch of losers:

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases

[kimbottles]

Man, we are just a bunch of losers:

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases

Wow! Not good.

[Ajax]

Looks like we said "Fuck it, let's just go for herd immunity. "

[Panope]

I need to see the rate of change in the amount of testing for each of those countries.

Steve

[LarryHoward]

I’d start by dumping China and Iran data and then making a population adjusted graph before I drew any conclusion. If you don’t normalize the data it’s a pretty worthless graph unless your intent is to show a larger country has more cases.

It compares a country with a 330M population with a bunch of countries with populations from 10 to 80 M on a total case count basis. It’s a bit like realizing with great horror that the US has 3 times as many cases as Iceland has people.

[BeauV]

Various bits of bad news about Antibody testing. It doesn't look good yet. False positives combined with a lack of knowledge about the durability of antibodies means that we aren't going to be able to "trust" that someone is immune just because they've tested positive for antibodies. There are reports out of China that folks have been reinfected despite having survived COVID-19.

From a few days ago

NY Times Today

All of this really means that we're not anywhere near "herd immunity" or anything remotely like it.

[Tigger]

We've had a spike in new cases the last few days, attributable mostly to outbreaks at two poultry plants (once again, staff shuttled between them) and a prison. We just don't know if the increase is an indication of a real increase or the disease or it just popping up in locations where it is easier to do contact tracing and test those who might be infected. Hospital and ICU admissions for the disease continue to decline, which is (knock on wood) a good sign.

Canadian Coast Guard has officially asked boaters to stay home to help curb the spread. Can't find the official statement, but it has been widely circulated in the media.

https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/canadia ... -stay-home

[Panope]

I’d start by dumping China and Iran data and then making a population adjusted graph before I drew any conclusion. If you don’t normalize the data it’s a pretty worthless graph unless your intent is to show a larger country has more cases.

It compares a country with a 330M population with a bunch of countries with populations from 10 to 80 M on a total case count basis. It’s a bit like realizing with great horror that the US has 3 times as many cases as Iceland has people.

I like to use the "worldometer" chart. It has a column for "Deaths/millon population" (click on that column to rank the countries).

Currently, the USA ranks 16th.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[SemiSalt]

I've been working on a little computer project playing with the pandemic projection formulas from the video I posted a couple days ago. I wrote it up as a blog post, so you can look at it here:

https://phv3773.blogspot.com/

Bottom line is that the model is so sensitive to the input data that I am awed by how close IHME and others got right from the start.

[TheOffice]

There was a labor/delivery patient at Hopkins who had 3 negative tests before coming back positive. Luckily, they kept her in isolation because of her symptoms.

Even the antigen tests suck!

[Benno von Humpback]

Submitted without comment.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-secret-group-of-scientists-and-billionaires-pushing-trump-on-a-covid-19-plan-11587998993

I have the paywalled article and the proposal document mentioned in the article if anyone wants either one.

[Steele]

Since the FDA gave provisional approval to the abbott antibody test we have been swamped with patient calls to get it. Our policy is a video or in person appointment to discus it in more detail before we will order it. After explaining the potential problems with false negatives and positives, the fact that antibodies do not diagnose the illness acutely, we do not know if antibodies infer immunity, and insurance may not cover ther $45 cost, many of my patients decide to hold off until we have more reliable information. I certainly hope in the end it is acurate and meaningful on a epidemiologic and personal basis.

The truth is the test result does not yet alter care or personal decisions. Despite seeing patients throughout and working in close proximity to partners and clinical staff for weeks I have also decided to wait. I will admit I freak a little everytime I sneeze or my toe hurts. I recall what an N95 mask looks like, but have not seen one in weeks, but I am sure the flimsy surgical masks supplied in unmarked cardboard boxes that I am supplied are the best!