Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

[BeauV]

We have used the Model-X in snow quite a bit. It does NOT have low profile tires. It has done just fine going up and over Donner Pass (8k feet), but as reported that sucks a lot of juice. There is a Safeway store where we can suck from a Supercharger while shopping and having a coffee. It works great. I can't speak for the re-generation of any other E-car, but the Model-X (and the Model-S in summertime) do the Santa Cruz to Lake Tahoe trip (256 miles) with one-stop just east of Sacramento before climbing the pass and no stops on the way home. Indeed from the top of Donner Pass all the way to west of Aburn, the regeneration fills up what you've used climbing from the lake (6k feet) to the top of the pass (8k feet), and it's the only time when I have to use the actual brakes if I want to stay below the speed limit. We typically start with 250 miles showing on the range meeter, it drops to around 200 climbing to the top of the pass, is full again by the bottom of the decline to Sacramento, and we end up in Santa Cruz with about 100 miles left.

We have not had super cold weather with this car, the lowest observed was about 23 deg. I think battery life plunges as you get into the teens. Tesla uses battery power to heat the batteries so they'll work better, that obviously burns power. Car heat doesn't seem to matter much.

For "real ski trips" we take the Ford SUV which is a 4-wheel drive with nobby tires.

[LarryHoward]

When we bought our A6 we specifically avoided the sport model since it came with 20" wheels. We do a fair amount of mountain driving including into eastern BC for ski trips and having all season tires that I can also put chains on was an important feature. The Audi is all wheel drive, but I have had to chain up all wheel drive in the past (powering all 4 wheels on glare ice does not do much good). I once drove out of Pendleton Oregon over the blue mountains in winter and watched cars slide down the camber of corners on ice into the ditch, not the slope of the the pass, just the tilt of the road for corners. You can't chain up 20" wheels. I suspect you can buy 20" snow tires, but the hassle and expense did not make sense. Winter driving also involves ice heaves and potholes, and the risk of flats and wheel damage worries me.

This leads to one of my biggest concerns about an electric sportyute or pickemup truck. A local ski trip is over 100 mile round trip, the first half with 5-7 thousand feet of elevation gain, all in sub-freezing temps. I have read that even long range EVs may not make it, especially with the heater and defroster going full blast the whole time. I suspect my first e-car will be a small city vehicle, and I will keep the ICE 4 wheel drive for now.

My Macan has 20” wheels. I have summer tires in the stock rims and Dunlop winter sport tires on replica rims for winter use. Both are low profile. I swap when the lows regularly get to 40 in the fall and after the last hard freeze in the spring. The winter tires are Tolerant of the occasional warm day and very good in the snow, slush and light ice we get here. Much better than the “No Season” Michelin Pilots I had on the predecessor Lexus. Probably could put some of the newer segmented traction bands on if I tried hard but it generally doesn’t get bad here, the plows hit the main roads quickly and if it does, I’m not going anywhere In any case.

If you really expect to regularly drive in snow, I agree with Jaime. Narrower tires to decrease footprint and increase tread loading a bit. My deputy just put Blizziks on his RAV4 since he goes skiing at least 2 weekends/month.

Not sure what I would do if I headed to Fl to visit the kids in winter. Winter tires and suck up the extra wear or summer tires and hope like hell I don’t hit a winter storm coming back?

[Steele]

That is my issue with winter tires. They would be great for mountain driving, but we have very few days of ice and snow in the city. I suspect 95 % of the tire milage would be on dry or wet pavement. My solution is the compromise of all season tires, all or 4 wheel drive, and chains in the trunk. The lack of dry performance is not a big deal wth the sedan, and I have the s2000 with summer tires to play with.

[avramd]

When we bought our A6 we specifically avoided the sport model since it came with 20" wheels. We do a fair amount of mountain driving including into eastern BC for ski trips and having all season tires that I can also put chains on was an important feature. [...] You can't chain up 20" wheels. I suspect you can buy 20" snow tires, but the hassle and expense did not make sense[...]

I highly recommend getting a complete set of winter wheels. I swapped mine on in 20 minutes in my driveway. I love my Hakkapeliitta 7's - people thought I was nuts getting studded tires when I don't live in the mountains or Canada, but it was one of the better decisions I've ever made. Nokian talks about how they mount the studs with a special cushion that reduces road noise, and it really works. I'd estimate it's maybe 10% louder on the highway, and nothing around town. I don't even notice it after the first day.

These tires are amazing, I'm basically unstoppable. I haven't tried them on glare ice with a grade, so I'm not claiming they're a chain replacement, but they do make it so I don't have to drive in fear that there might be ice under the snow. When driving from Newport to Maine to visit my parents in heavy storms, I pass the snow plows. People love to say "I know you can drive in the snow, but I'm worried about everybody else." Well, in front of the plows, there is nobody else.

Even more amazing, they are 8 years old and still going strong. The center rows of studs are worn out, but the shoulders are still solid, as is the tread.

[Jamie]

Nice wagon!

Dedicated Winter tires on a semi-expendable set of rims is a nice way to go if you live in the North. Portland Oregon is mostly wet conditions with occasional glare ice, but once you get out of the city it’s a lot of snow. Because 18"245/40 snow tires are priced kind of silly, I went down in rim size to 17" and 215 in profile. I carry chains, but technically can’t use then on my AWD system. The General Tire AltiMax is a retired Hakkapelitta design that has a good reputation with the Subie crowd. Pair that with some Kosei rims on close out at Tirerack and you have a nice Winter set. That set-up got my cross country in January in 4 days with a lot of snow between Montana and Eastern Oregon. Next time I might get a tire less snow and more wet oriented. Of course now I live in FL and will probably get a set of extreme Summer performance.

Somewhere still in Nebraska...

[LarryHoward]

Nice wagon!

Dedicated Winter tires on a semi-expendable set of rims is a nice way to go if you live in the North. Portland Oregon is mostly wet conditions with occasional glare ice, but once you get out of the city it’s a lot of snow. Because 18"245/40 snow tires are priced kind of silly, I went down in rim size to 17" and 215 in profile. I carry chains, but technically can’t use then on my AWD system. The General Tire AltiMax is a retired Hakkapelitta design that has a good reputation with the Subie crowd. Pair that with some Kosei rims on close out at Tirerack and you have a nice Winter set. That set-up got my cross country in January in 4 days with a lot of snow between Montana and Eastern Oregon. Next time I might get a tire less snow and more wet oriented. Of course now I live in FL and will probably get a set of extreme Summer performance.

Somewhere still in Nebraska...

Still haven't bought those RE-71's? I do hear that Palm Beach has nothing but long straight roads that are "boring."

[avramd]

Because 18"245/40 snow tires are priced kind of silly, I went down in rim size to 17" and 215 in profile. I carry chains, but technically can’t use then on my AWD system. The General Tire AltiMax is a retired Hakkapelitta design that has a good reputation with the Subie crowd.

Ah, cool, that is really good to know. Next time around I will actually get alloys just b/c the rust on the steel rims is disconcerting. And :+1 to the downsizing, I do the same - this car came with 17" wheels and I went with 16" for the winters, b/c more cushion is better in snow.

Alas, it does look like that'll be the last set of tires or wheels I ever put on a Subaru. I have an appointment to pick up the Tesla Model Y at 4:30pm Monday. I won't have the cash for a winter package on that car this winter, but my understanding is that the Y can take 18" rims (factory are 19"). So I will probably do that. I'll try to remember your tip about the AltiMax.

Are your AltiMax's studded? How are they on road noise? I don't know anything about whether anybody else had adopted Nokian's cushioned bedding technology.

[Jamie]

Not yet. Dunflops aren't dead yet, though they are really not great tires. I was looking hard at the S-007a - the successor to my much missed RE-11a. USAA however has a smashing deal on Goodyear. I'm not in competition mode.

WPM is flat, urban driving. Really boring except for the shocking incompetence of FL drivers. Basically the worst use case for an STi . I really should buy some big 'murican power. But who knows how long I'll be here...

[Jamie]

Because 18"245/40 snow tires are priced kind of silly, I went down in rim size to 17" and 215 in profile. I carry chains, but technically can’t use then on my AWD system. The General Tire AltiMax is a retired Hakkapelitta design that has a good reputation with the Subie crowd.

Ah, cool, that is really good to know. Next time around I will actually get alloys just b/c the rust on the steel rims is disconcerting. And :+1 to the downsizing, I do the same - this car came with 17" wheels and I went with 16" for the winters, b/c more cushion is better in snow.

Alas, it does look like that'll be the last set of tires or wheels I ever put on a Subaru. I have an appointment to pick up the Tesla Model Y at 4:30pm Monday. I won't have the cash for a winter package on that car this winter, but my understanding is that the Y can take 18" rims (factory are 19"). So I will probably do that. I'll try to remember your tip about the AltiMax.

Are your AltiMax's studded? How are they on road noise? I don't know anything about whether anybody else had adopted Nokian's cushioned bedding technology.

No studs - most of the time I'm on dry pavement. Some states it is illegal to have studs outside of certain time periods and they really degrade dry pavement performance.

[LarryHoward]

Not yet. Dunflops aren't dead yet, though they are really not great tires. I was looking hard at the S-007a - the successor to my much missed RE-11a. USAA however has a smashing deal on Goodyear. I'm not in competition mode.

WPM is flat, urban driving. Really boring except for the shocking incompetence of FL drivers. Basically the worst use case for an STi . I really should buy some big 'murican power. But who knows how long I'll be here...

Yeah, Chris complains that his 911 hasn't had a good run in forever given the roads there and SCCA and PCA are not doing much right now as far as autocross. He's pretty much doing home to work and back. I have a leftover set of RE-71's from his SI that I could put on the S-2000 but it has a decent set of summer tires already and it is just a fun road car. I guess if Lynne picks up a nail or something, Ill swap them in.

[Jamie]

Not yet. Dunflops aren't dead yet, though they are really not great tires. I was looking hard at the S-007a - the successor to my much missed RE-11a. USAA however has a smashing deal on Goodyear. I'm not in competition mode.

WPM is flat, urban driving. Really boring except for the shocking incompetence of FL drivers. Basically the worst use case for an STi . I really should buy some big 'murican power. But who knows how long I'll be here...

Yeah, Chris complains that his 911 hasn't had a good run in forever given the roads there and SCCA and PCA are not doing much right now as far as autocross. He's pretty much doing home to work and back. I have a leftover set of RE-71's from his SI that I could put on the S-2000 but it has a decent set of summer tires already and it is just a fun road car. I guess if Lynne picks up a nail or something, Ill swap them in.

It's taken me 3 years to put 24k miles on my car, maybe half of those on the snowies. So maybe they (RE-71) will last longer (time axis) than I think. They can be a bit loud.

[BeauV]

I think we discussed this a while ago, but most folks seem to buy vehicles that will allow them to cover the extreme cases. I have friends who drive super-duty 350 pickups with dual rears every day because they two their boat 4 times a year and haul their horses 6 times a year. This is despite my providing a spreadsheet that shows that renting that vehicle from Penske would be a tiny fraction of the cost they pay for the truck they call the Dinasaur.

Similarly, here are the stats on most drivers which show a massive percentage of short local trips and the one I'm always amazed by is that more trips are taken between noon and 1 pm, than during the 8 am to 9 am hour. Basically, we spend the vast majority of our time driving in short trips running errands. But, psychologically, folks buy based on rare outlier trips of ether long-distance or tough conditions.

45 percent of daily trips are taken for shopping and errands
27 percent of daily trips are social and recreational, such as visiting a friend
15 percent of daily trips are taken for commuting

The most daily trips are made on Friday (16 percent)
The fewest daily trips are made on Sunday (13 percent)
More daily trips are taken between noon and 1 p.m. (7.4 percent) than between 8 a.m. - 9 a.m. (5.5 percent)

Interesting source for this stuff: HERE

Clearly, folks don't really consider covering the outlier trips with a rental vehicle. This is weird because most rentals are cleaner, in better shape, and better maintained than most individual cars I see on the road. Oh well, just another place where folks are clearly buying cars for reasons that aren't economic.

I get the snow country cars that are a serious necessity, but as I think Jessie pointed out up thread it's nuts to drive a sports car in Texas or Florida where the vast majority of corners are 90 degrees and they are miles apart. The classic American muscle car would be a far better choice. Similarly, the SUV which is really a comically large station wagon is equally absurd in a grocery store parking lot. FInally, to get back on this thread's topic, if we running errands and doing it in our local town electric cars are massively better, but they don't go "rumble rumble rumble" at idle and probably don't ever do a 0-60 run more often than once ever three months.

I'm as guilty of this as anyone. We have a comically large SUV that gets used rarely and we bought the 3-sec 0-60 car... so I'm no paragon of rationality.

[LarryHoward]

Beau. You are absolutely correct. People buy for the extreme usage, not the normal.

My macan can tow the skiff and the utility trailer. I borrow a 4x4 F-150 for the one or two time a year I tow the heavier Bow Rider. It also carry’s 4 adults in reasonable comfort and is a great highway cruiser for my monthly trips to NY. My wife is pretty stuck on wanting a 3 row something to carry kids, other visitors, etc. an electric (model 3 size) would cover 95%+ of her use case but.....

[Panope]

With a heavy heart, I sold the mini Pick-up (Ranger) last month as I do not need 2 trucks. That leaves an F-250 and a Leaf.

Wife still has a Prius.

She occasionally "borrows" the F-250 (it's a girl my lord, in a flat bed Ford) for heavy lifts, and I "borrow" the Prius for distance runs.

I wish we could do it all with 2 rigs. The big truck is actually quite nice to drive, but I just can't bring myself to burn that much gas on a daily basis.

[TheOffice]

I've thought about buying an old Tacoma for hauling boat stuff. My commute is going to drop from 3 miles to 5 miles next month. I probably burned as much diesel on Atlantis as I did gas this year.

[LarryHoward]

I've thought about buying an old Tacoma for hauling boat stuff. My commute is going to drop from 3 miles to 5 miles next month. I probably burned as much diesel on Atlantis as I did gas this year.

I looked into that a few years ago but the insurance costs of the truck were too high to let it sit. Of course, at that time I had an under 21 male in the house so minimum liability cost (for the levels I was comfortable with) were almost $100/month/car. Now we have 2 drivers and 3 cars. The 2006 minivan is the “mom truck” and it sits in the garage while she drives the S2000 as a DD. The S2000 goes under a cover about this time of the year and the AWD van becomes her DD over the winter.

[Steele]

We all own boats so any discussion about purchases being based on emotion not practicality is moot.
My daily driver is an 04 nissan frontier pickup. I use it as a pickup rarely, but with 2 homes and a boat it is handy. It is also great for bikes, kayaks, outboard motors etc., and the 4 wheel drive is good for mountain driving. I could use a sedan for all that, but keeping the mess out of the interior and not needing racks for bikes and skis is handy. As a smaller truck it has been cheap to keep and very reliable.
My toy car is the S2000. I do not have much opportunity to enjoy it's full potential. The problem around here is bad roads and dense traffic. There is no intersection in seattle that the city has not decided needs a traffic light. Despite that it brings a smile to my face even on a short comute that never gets over 30 MPH, so it is worth it.

[Olaf Hart]

I have a similar flat tray pickup, an 04 diesel Isuzu badged by GM as a Rodeo, no particular reason to hang on to it but it pays for itself hauling building stuff, boats, ride on mowers, all sorts of stuff.
Costs nothing, I service it myself, and it has just passed 200k country miles with only an alternator replacement.
I can still repair it, windows wind up, AC works well, it’s here till it dies.
Other car is a 2013 CRV, Sweet Hart loves it so it’s probably round for the long run, we are holding out till we have an electric replacement option.
Project car is an 07 VW multivan, the least said the better.
I will probably sell it when I have fixed everything I can, it’s one of the few challenges left in my life, definitely a learning opportunity.

[Jamie]

I daily my STi. It can carry a small fridge.

My wife has a Jeep Grand Cherokee. Probably not the best choice but it is quiet and has air suspension (it kneels so she can get in). It's the Lincoln Town Car of the 20's.

I enjoys cars, but they are a diversion of funds away from sailing.

[Jamie]

I have a similar flat tray pickup, an 04 diesel Isuzu badged by GM as a Rodeo, no particular reason to hang on to it but it pays for itself hauling building stuff, boats, ride on mowers, all sorts of stuff.
Costs nothing, I service it myself, and it has just passed 200k country miles with only an alternator replacement.
I can still repair it, windows wind up, AC works well, it’s here till it dies.
Other car is a 2013 CRV, Sweet Hart loves it so it’s probably round for the long run, we are holding out till we have an electric replacement option.
Project car is an 07 VW multivan, the least said the better.
I will probably sell it when I have fixed everything I can, it’s one of the few challenges left in my life, definitely a learning opportunity.

A T5? That was the go-to surf van. Platform bed, place your boards, spars and sails underneath. Plenty of room for camping gear, beverages and attaching a canopy on the side. The only downside is how fast they get hot in the morning in a sub-tropical climate. Makes nursing a hangover very hard. Maintenance wise it's a VW and a couple years of constant salt water takes its toll.....

[Olaf Hart]

I have a similar flat tray pickup, an 04 diesel Isuzu badged by GM as a Rodeo, no particular reason to hang on to it but it pays for itself hauling building stuff, boats, ride on mowers, all sorts of stuff.
Costs nothing, I service it myself, and it has just passed 200k country miles with only an alternator replacement.
I can still repair it, windows wind up, AC works well, it’s here till it dies.
Other car is a 2013 CRV, Sweet Hart loves it so it’s probably round for the long run, we are holding out till we have an electric replacement option.
Project car is an 07 VW multivan, the least said the better.
I will probably sell it when I have fixed everything I can, it’s one of the few challenges left in my life, definitely a learning opportunity.

A T5? That was the go-to surf van. Platform bed, place your boards, spars and sails underneath. Plenty of room for camping gear, beverages and attaching a canopy on the side. The only downside is how fast they get hot in the morning in a sub-tropical climate. Makes nursing a hangover very hard. Maintenance wise it's a VW and a couple years of constant salt water takes its toll.....

Yep, just don’t ask about the Diesel Particulate Filter....And I have become an expert on code readers.
Currently all the lights on the Christmas tree are off, I think it’s time to sell it.

[avramd]

No studs - most of the time I'm on dry pavement. Some states it is illegal to have studs outside of certain time periods and they really degrade dry pavement performance.

Yes, they absolutely do. Not only that, but if you want to push the limits of your tires on dry pavement, then studs are foolish b/c that will wear them out in one season. Personally, I place such a high value on being unstoppable when it snows that I am happy to tame my driving from Dec to Mar just to maximize the longevity of the studs.

And yes x2, in RI I can only have them on something like Nov 15 to Apr 1, but that's already longer than I want to put up with the relaxed dry pavement driving. Usually what I do is watch the weather closely in late fall and delay putting them on as long as I can. It is a gift when, like this year, there was a very clear prediction of a severe winter storm in mid December. The worst is when they are constantly saying "we might get 1-2 inches," and them I'm constantly "Should I or shouldn't I?"

[avramd]

Clearly, folks don't really consider covering the outlier trips with a rental vehicle. This is weird because most rentals are cleaner, in better shape, and better maintained than most individual cars I see on the road. Oh well, just another place where folks are clearly buying cars for reasons that aren't economic.

Beau, I would submit that "legal tender" (aka money) is not the only economy that people consider. Convenience and preparedness both have value. Renting a truck requires advance planning, and if the situation is fluid, like with weather when hauling a boat, you can't just snap your fingers at the moment you decide it's a good day, and have a truck materialize with a friendly person handing you the key without asking you to make choices where all of the options suck. I know an Outback is not a truck so this isn't a great analogy, but I always laughed at people who "made fun of me" for driving a wagon b/c they had no idea how often I found myself in situations that were no-brainers b/c of my choice of car, and would have been non-starters if I'd had a sedan instead.

We all own boats so any discussion about purchases being based on emotion not practicality is moot.

Amen

[Olaf Hart]

Beau, when was the last time you owned a truck?

[BeauV]

Beau, when was the last time you owned a truck?

Does the Ford Expedition count? Since the early '70s I've owned three Suburbans and two Expeditions. I haven't ever owned a pickup truck. When I need a pickup or bigger truck I call Enterprise or Penske and they deliver one to my house. They have everything from 1/2-ton pickups to 5-ton box trucks. The box trucks need advanced planning, as Avramd correctly points out.

Out here in CA we generally make sure that the snow and ice stays in the mountains where it belongs and not at the beaches.

[avramd]

Out here in CA we generally make sure that the snow and ice stays in the mountains where it belongs and not at the beaches.

Haha - that's funny

Newport being a small community that is supposedly on an island, often has quite a bit less commerce available than way over on the mainland. We don't have a Penske w/in 30 miles, and our Enterprise doesn't have tow-capable vehicles. We've got U-Haul and Home Depot. Most experiences I've had with U-Haul have been pretty unpleasant, and it's frequently the case that they don't have what I need a day or two out.

This year a friend with a van helped me haul, he was very generous with his flexibility. The problem is that he's a guy that I can't imagine will ever need a favor that I can provide, so I'll probably just carry this karmic debt forever.

[avramd]

In other news, I paid the downpayment on my Model Y last night! It was about 20 minutes before midnight, but we can call it my x-mas present to myself. I actually changed vehicles at the last minute, so my delivery has been rescheduled for the 31st. I'm pretty proud of what it looks like I'm about to pull off here.

• I've wanted the Model Y Performance for a while, but my gut tells me that the $10k premium they charge for it over the basically identical Model 3 is going to drop at some point.
• They used to offer the Performance model without the "appearance" package (21" fancy wheels and high-viz brake calipers). They call it the "stealth" internally. They don't offer it this way anymore. I don't want flashy, and want more cushion on my wheels.
• In perusing their existing inventory, I discovered they are unloading their 2020 dems with a discount. Including some stealths, which have been un-orderable since August. Most of them have several thousand miles on them, but they come with a full new factory warranty, and with the new-car-only 2.5% financing offer.
• So, I figured this is my chance, suck up just a little bit of initial mileage, and trust them to take care of anything serious that may have happened as a demo.
• But then... drumroll please... I managed to find a demo on their website that has "< 50 miles" on the odometer! So I grabbed that as fast as I could. It's supposed to arrive on the 30th and I'm scheduled to take delivery on the 31st.

[kimbottles]

...........but I always laughed at people who "made fun of me" for driving a wagon b/c they had no idea how often I found myself in situations that were no-brainers b/c of my choice of car, and would have been non-starters if I'd had a sedan instead.

I have driven only station wagons for years because of the same situations. My wagons have always been able to do whatever a sedan can do, but often they do things sedans can’t do.

(I couldn’t care less about “fashion”.)

Both our current wagons are AWD.

MERRY CHRISTMAS and HAPPY HANUKKAH to all.

[TheOffice]

In other news, I paid the downpayment on my Model Y last night! It was about 20 minutes before midnight, but we can call it my x-mas present to myself. I actually changed vehicles at the last minute, so my delivery has been rescheduled for the 31st. I'm pretty proud of what it looks like I'm about to pull off here.

[*]But then... drumroll please... I managed to find a demo on their website that has "< 50 miles" on the odometer! So I grabbed that as fast as I could. It's supposed to arrive on the 30th and I'm scheduled to take delivery on the 31st.[/list]

Well done!

[BeauV]

Avramd,

Both our Teslas were bought out of demo stock. My #1 son-in-law worked at Tesla and pointed out that unlike other demos, the car never goes anywhere without a Tesla employee aboard. So, the only thing to look out for is left front tire wear from taking freeway onramps a bit fast. So far, the cars have been mechanically pretty indestructible. We have one of the high-performance model S with the red P85D logo. Only a real Tesla-wonk would know it was the Ludicrous model.

I have to admit having great fun with that car. Just two days ago at the stoplight at the two-lane entrance to CA Highway 17, a BMW M4 pulled up next to me and was making all sorts of noise revving his engine. "Looks like that guy needs a lesson." was what my lovely Admiral sail. (It's her car.) By the time we hit 60 MPH he was about 5 car lengths behind, by 80 MPH he was about 7 car lengths back making a cloud of smoke and starting to gain on us. Fun stuff, all done in complete silence. Of course, we get off 1.1 miles up the road, so we were down to 55 MPH in the slow lane once the guy caught us, he didn't have the balls to glance our way. I don't think I'll ever grow up, doing this sort of stuff at 69 is as much fun as it was at 16.