Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

[Soñadora]

This guy is addressing the Dark Side of Tesla and I think it's fantastic.

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCfV0_w ... DuZT2ct4SA

Channel Intro:

[BeauV]

Does "dark side" mean discussing pulling a flooded electric car out of a swamp and trying to restore it? I guess I don't understand?

BTW - it is NOT a good idea to try and work on a Tesla yourself. Ever. The only folks I know who can pull that off are Tesla engineers. It's a lot like working on your own supercomputer or spacecraft. Not for hobbyists.

[Soñadora]

Does "dark side" mean discussing pulling a flooded electric car out of a swamp and trying to restore it? I guess I don't understand?

BTW - it is NOT a good idea to try and work on a Tesla yourself. Ever. The only folks I know who can pull that off are Tesla engineers. It's a lot like working on your own supercomputer or spacecraft. Not for hobbyists.

yes. Dark Side being that you cannot stop people from trying things like this, good idea or not. He's a rare breed. But this guy is no hick hillbilly. The fact that he's been doing this for a couple years and hasn't killed or at least injured himself says a lot. We heard plenty of stories of guys getting zapped to death working on CRT TVs.

As a DIY'er myself, I respect and appreciate what this guy is doing. He's no idiot. I know a little about his background and I'd be willing to bet he's on par with any Tesla engineer. Maybe even has an edge over them as he's had to be a bit more innovative. The underlying message is that at some point there are going to be very old Tesla's out there. "Normal" people (those who can't fork out $150k for a car) will eventually get their hands on these. Not everyone who has a Tesla will bring it back to Tesla to get rid of it after 2 years when they're bored with it.

There's nothing magical about Tesla engineers. They are people just like any other people. At least, there's a 99% chance they're people. There are a lot of engineers out there. Maybe even some who are smarter than Tesla's engineers.

I would imagine at some point Tesla will have to develop a curriculum to allow non-Tesla facilities to service their cars. Just like Porsche, BMW, MB, and others do now.

[BeauV]

Well, while I'm sure that eventually Tesla will document how to work on these cars at a level that a trained technician can deal with, I really doubt that there will be many folks who try to DIY these cars. The physical danger with these battery stacks is significant.

I don't think there's anything special about Tesla's engineers, only that they have access to all of the technical information which allows them to avoid killing themselves or starting a fire while working on the car. Do keep in mind, if you don't hook up the cooling systems correctly, the battery stack is a bomb and will literally blow up. I would disagree that "innovative" is actually a benefit to anyone who is trying to maintain a car. Sure, it might be useful to someone who is trying to "improve it", or who is trying to save money by using alternative parts. But, again, these car's power source is much more prone to dangerous behavior than gasoline.

I agree, people will try to maintain the cars themselves. Some of them will get hurt. Then there will be massive stickers all over the place that say: "You can't do this yourself." Unlike the opacity of modern computer ignition systems, people will get killed by screwing with these cars and they blame Tesla. It will finally dawn on them that part of buying the car is signing up to have a competent person do the maintenance. It's exactly like an airplane which carries passengers for hire. Sure, you can get certified to maintain the thing yourself, but it's not a hobby and not for those who aren't serious.

[TheOffice]

With Musk tweeting about taking the company private, the stock is back near its all-time high. The sort sellers are taking a bigger bath and the securities lawyers are licking their chops.

We cancelled the reservation for the Model 3. Sue is not a techie, and the buttonless dash was a major turn-off. Rather spend some of that money on the boat and travel.

I've seen several around town, and they really need the chrome accents from the Model S to dress them up. The standard wheel covers are hideous, and the upgrade is 2k.

[Orestes Munn]

Congrats, Joel and Sue on your good sense (and your retirement plans!).

I heard on NPR last night from the reporter that literally every function in the 3 requires fiddling with some interface full of icons and that Musk was looking for entertainment content for the goddamn display. Why? Just fucking why build layer upon layer of distraction into a multi-ton piece of gear intended for operation at high speed in traffic?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2018/08/02/behind-wheel-tesla-model-its-giant-iphone-better-worse/?tid=ss_mail&utm_term=.53ee1210b860

[TheOffice]

Thanks. I had to teach her how to copy and paste - in the last 5 years. She's not an early adopter!

Long term there could be a lot more money in electric trucks than cars. Competition in cars will be brutal, while there are only a handful of heavy truck builders.

[Jamie]

One of the definitive car review channels: Regular Car Reviews. A bit crude at moments and a great example of how millennials are adapting to the new labor market.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3SSzF6htank

Or for those who like well produced and thoughtful reviews.

https://www.youtube.com/user/savagegeese/videos

[kdh]

Mr Musk has backed himself into a corner where he's resorted to tweeting about a deal to go private that makes no sense to pump the stock so convertible debt holders take shares to ease his cash problem.

Companies that hemorrhage money are not candidates for issuing debt to take themselves private, and a car maker trading at 5 times sales needs the liquidity premium a public company enjoys.

He's desperate. This will not end well.

[BeauV]

I think Keith has nailed it. Elon's adventure will probably end in tears for him. But, that's different from the car owners who obviously love the cars.

I do realize that some folks around here don't like Tesla's screens etc.... but that is NOT what the market is saying. As of now, the Model 3 is selling more cars than all of the competition in their market segment combined. Who would have guessed that a crazy guy like Elon would build cars that could clobber MBZ, BMW, Lexus, and Acura .... combined. Let's face it, the customers have voted and the Model 3 is a giant success.

The CEO... not so much.

My guess is that the most likely outcome is that some government subsidized buyer picks off Tesla for a song when they run out of cash.

[kdh]

I think the story is fascinating. To me the reality is that Teslas are really cool, making the brand extremely valuable, sufficient even to justify the stock price. Think of the difference in our reactions to seeing a Chevy Volt on the street from seeing a Tesla Model 3.

Musk is a bold visionary, and the world needs people like him. But he's fucked up his relationship to the capital markets. He's needed a shit-ton of money to pursue his ventures yet doesn't respect the investment community, with his accusations of "boneheaded, boring questions" and his view of short sellers. He acts like Jesus Christ offended by anyone's not being a disciple.

Elon, we like the cars and the mission, but investors want to see a return on their investment. A good way to start is to make cars for less than their selling price.

[Orestes Munn]

Belaboring the point, but driver distraction is a real, not a theoretical threat, and is killing people. These products are going to make it worse.

[kimbottles]

I think the story is fascinating. To me the reality is that Teslas are really cool, making the brand extremely valuable, sufficient even to justify the stock price. Think of the difference in our reactions to seeing a Chevy Volt on the street from seeing a Tesla Model 3.

Musk is a bold visionary, and the world needs people like him. But he's fucked up his relationship to the capital markets. He's needed a shit-ton of money to pursue his ventures yet doesn't respect the investment community, with his accusations of "boneheaded, boring questions" and his view of short sellers. He acts like Jesus Christ offended by anyone's not being a disciple.

Elon, we like the cars and the mission, but investors want to see a return on their investment. A good way to start is to make cars for less than their selling price.

Maybe he is channeling Steve Jobs?

[Ajax]

With Musk tweeting about taking the company private, the stock is back near its all-time high. The sort sellers are taking a bigger bath and the securities lawyers are licking their chops.

We cancelled the reservation for the Model 3. Sue is not a techie, and the buttonless dash was a major turn-off. Rather spend some of that money on the boat and travel.

I've seen several around town, and they really need the chrome accents from the Model S to dress them up. The standard wheel covers are hideous, and the upgrade is 2k.

Buy a solar array for your home. It adds value instead of being a depreciating asset!

[BeauV]

I think the story is fascinating. To me the reality is that Teslas are really cool, making the brand extremely valuable, sufficient even to justify the stock price. Think of the difference in our reactions to seeing a Chevy Volt on the street from seeing a Tesla Model 3.

Musk is a bold visionary, and the world needs people like him. But he's fucked up his relationship to the capital markets. He's needed a shit-ton of money to pursue his ventures yet doesn't respect the investment community, with his accusations of "boneheaded, boring questions" and his view of short sellers. He acts like Jesus Christ offended by anyone's not being a disciple.

Elon, we like the cars and the mission, but investors want to see a return on their investment. A good way to start is to make cars for less than their selling price.

Maybe he is channeling Steve Jobs?

Despite his well deserved reputation for being a "visionary" and an "inspirational/intimidating leader", SteveJ was extremely good at understanding the real complexities and costs of a large company. He wasn't originally, he had to learn that working at Next and at Pixar. When he returned to run Apple, he took a bloated list of products and reduced them to three or four. He took gross margins from low 30% to well into the 70% range. He hired Tim Cook because Steve understood that to be really successful they need to build a vertically controlled (and sometimes integrated) supply-chain. Frankly, there is no supply-chain I've ever seen as well managed as Apple.

Example: They fund the development of technology in product and manufacturing in exchange for exclusivity on products. They do NOT launch products that are based on funky space-age tech that doesn't quite work yet, like OLEDs. Samsung had massive scrap rates on OLED screens and Apple stood by waiting until the scrap rate plunged as the manufacturers went through the learning curve. They write almost all their own software because it's more reliable that way and they can generate the margin to support that. Yes OS-X was a re-make of Unix, but it is vastly better in every way.

Anyhooo, I think Elon doesn't really understand operations. The complexity of his businesses and products indicate this. He does understand what the market wants, and that will win out in the end. Steve understood both, and that's what made him so astoundingly successful.

As to profitable cars, it's still too early. Keith, I completely agree that Elon's ego may destroy his ability to succeed here and possibly the company. But it's crazy for folks to think that one can start a car company, build it to market leadership in every segment it has entered, build it based on rather new tech, and be profitable in the first 20 years. You couldn't do it with Semiconductors, Disk Drives, and a host of other things I know about in tech. No reason to believe you can do it with cars. I'm guessing that Tesla could become wildly successful in about ten more years, if Elon can stop being an idiot about the way he treats investors. (and the way he treats professional rescue divers - his comments were as out of line as Donalds - poor snowflakes)

[kdh]

As to profitable cars, it's still too early. Keith, I completely agree that Elon's ego may destroy his ability to succeed here and possibly the company. But it's crazy for folks to think that one can start a car company, build it to market leadership in every segment it has entered, build it based on rather new tech, and be profitable in the first 20 years. You couldn't do it with Semiconductors, Disk Drives, and a host of other things I know about in tech. No reason to believe you can do it with cars. I'm guessing that Tesla could become wildly successful in about ten more years, if Elon can stop being an idiot about the way he treats investors. (and the way he treats professional rescue divers - his comments were as out of line as Donalds - poor snowflakes)

Beau, every market expectation for production rates and profitability came directly from Musk. There is no one else to blame.

[Jamie]

He hired Tim Cook because Steve understood that to be really successful they need to build a vertically controlled (and sometimes integrated) supply-chain. Frankly, there is no supply-chain I've ever seen as well managed as Apple.

The symbiotic relationship with Foxcom is a big part of that success. In my former life I had a lot in-depth discussions with a number of senior Foxcom guys when they were looking to invest in my last company. It was surprising to me how much engineering, materials and prototyping was actually outsourced to Foxcom. For Foxcom prototyping and early stage production was the only place they made money. As the volumes went up, the price drop was so steep it was essentially break-even after that.

It's hard to understand the mindset of people like Musk. Even getting Tesla to where it is today is a huge achievement, so why the fragile ego? I read that the number one trade-in for a Model 3 is a BMW 3 series.

[BeauV]

Keith, I agree. Elon has done this to himself. But the adults in the investment community should have done their research and realized that Elon was wrong. After all, Elon has an axe to grind and stock to sell. The buyers, they are supposed to do the research, to believe the CEO. When someone buys a pig-in-a-poke, who’s to blame? The buyer or the seller? I think it’s pretty clear that the buyers were far tooooo willing to buy the pig.

Jamie, I agree. The only way suppliers make money serving Apple is doing startup and semi-custom work. In volume production, a vendor is lucky to reach break even.

[TheOffice]

I look at at Tesla as the equivalen to a Blackberry in the product development cycle. Not the first, and certainly not the last. Over the next 5 years there will be several dozen electric models introduced. Whether Tesla can adapt to competition remains to be seen.

To me, 400 mile range is the target. After 6-8 hours in a car, I want to get out for a while, so a charge is not an inconvenience.

I see the Elon wants a pickup truck next. Plenty of room for batteries under the bed!

[BeauV]

Joel, you're certainly right that Tesla is not the last electric car. I think it quite surprising that with all the advantages of gasoline engines both the Model X and the Model S are outselling all the established competition in their respective market segments. This is something that none of the existing manufacturers have been able to achieve. It is also something that most people completely ignore in discussions of Tesla. Which I find really odd.

It's clear that the major manufacturers are all rushing to build electric cars, but I don't think that's the true differentiator is the power train. (Except for the massive tree-hugger types.) The real differentiations are: Build quality (which is really quite high), great handling, near silent operation (much quieter than the Bolt I drove), and great brand development. Then there is the Tesla-only Supercharger network. I really think that the other auto manufacturers have missed the departing train here. There are currently over 10,000 superchargers deployed and they are building them at a ferocious pace. Every Tesla has the ability to turn on billing for the electricity and bingo, Tesla owns its own set of re-fueling stations. Finally, there is the selling model. Removing the dealers from the process is my Admirals FAVORITE feature of buying a Tesla. It's crazy how hard it was to buy our box-standard Ford SUV. The dealers are trying, but the entire process is like having your teeth drilled without painkillers. Oh ya, I forgot about the special deals you can get with Solar Cells, PowerWall, and car charger combined.

To catch Tesla, the competition will have to match or beat all the various ways in which the Tesla buying and operating experience is better.

[Jamie]

Joel, you're certainly right that Tesla is not the last electric car. I think it quite surprising that with all the advantages of gasoline engines both the Model X and the Model S are outselling all the established competition in their respective market segments. This is something that none of the existing manufacturers have been able to achieve. It is also something that most people completely ignore in discussions of Tesla. Which I find really odd.

It's clear that the major manufacturers are all rushing to build electric cars, but I don't think that's the true differentiator is the power train. (Except for the massive tree-hugger types.) The real differentiations are: Build quality (which is really quite high), great handling, near silent operation (much quieter than the Bolt I drove), and great brand development. Then there is the Tesla-only Supercharger network. I really think that the other auto manufacturers have missed the departing train here. There are currently over 10,000 superchargers deployed and they are building them at a ferocious pace. Every Tesla has the ability to turn on billing for the electricity and bingo, Tesla owns its own set of re-fueling stations. Finally, there is the selling model. Removing the dealers from the process is my Admirals FAVORITE feature of buying a Tesla. It's crazy how hard it was to buy our box-standard Ford SUV. The dealers are trying, but the entire process is like having your teeth drilled without painkillers. Oh ya, I forgot about the special deals you can get with Solar Cells, PowerWall, and car charger combined.

To catch Tesla, the competition will have to match or beat all the various ways in which the Tesla buying and operating experience is better.

It's the first electric car that is a car first, not an "electric car" or hybrid whatever-put-your-conventional-model-name-here. Car & Driver gave it a positive review based on car metrics alone.

[JoeP]

Prototype Tesla pickup truck spotted. Great styling. Simple maintenance.

https://bringatrailer.com/listing/1913-commercial-truck-c-t-company-of-america-model-a-10-standard-wheelbase/

[Orestes Munn]

Prototype Tesla pickup truck spotted. Great styling. Simple maintenance.

https://bringatrailer.com/listing/1913-commercial-truck-c-t-company-of-america-model-a-10-standard-wheelbase/

Those 30-profile tires are just screaming for spinners.

[TheOffice]

It's the first electric car that is a car first, not an "electric car" or hybrid whatever-put-your-conventional-model-name-here. Car & Driver gave it a positive review based on car metrics alone.

I've driven the S and it is an amazing car to drive. I don't doubt that the 3 is amazing too.

Beau, I know what you mean about the delivery process. I represent several car dealers, and they all want to streamline delivery, but unlike Tesla, most of their deliveries are people walking in off the street, so they have to do selection, test drive, financing etc at the store, and it takes time. I've taken possession of a car and had the papers sent to me by FedEx, but only because the client knew I would not sell the car for parts. Very civilized!

[TheOffice]

Interesting article in Automotive News:

http://www.autonews.com/article/2018081 ... news-daily

[LarryHoward]

Interesting article in Automotive News:

http://www.autonews.com/article/2018081 ... news-daily

Saw that. Now that options are emerging and Tesla is headed for no tax credits in the US and potentially reduced incentives elsewhere, it will be interesting to see how the market reacts.

[TheOffice]

I hope that Jag has improved reliability under Tata (or whoever owns it these days). Still love the styling. Like Audi, I would only own one under warranty.

The electric Jag SUV is over 100k. I have not seen sales figures, but it is just getting to market. Tesla has a couple advantaGES - No marketing expense and company stores. The marketing alone probably saves 1500 a car.

[BeauV]

As someone who has owned four Porsches, the Tesla is far more, no REALLY MUCH MORE, reliable than any of the Porches I’ve owned. It is also faster than everything but the GT-3 and the 911 Turbo-S, and it’s a sedan! When. As to Jaguar, there is simply no way I’d touch one after talking with my friends who own the fully debugged gasoline version.

I really do hope that Porsche can get a car on the road. But they are the smallest and weakest of the potential competitors to Tesla. The real threat, which is doing something nutty with the new Hydrogen car, is clearly Toyota/Lexus. So far, they are the only manufacturer who actually builds cars which are more reliable than Tesla.

The chatter in the article about poor build quality and parts availability could be true in Europe, but that is certainly not what I hear here. So far, the customers have made it clear that manufacturers like Jag, Audi, BMW, and MBZ are going to have to build a far better car than the Tesla to win back customers who are pretty pissed at paying what they’ve been paying for poorly built cars. Thus, Toyota/Lexus being the real threat here.

IMHO

[kdh]

I've owned two 911s, and they've been reliably perfect.

The Model S is fast 0 to 60 and the batteries are low in the car so handling is reasonable, but to compare the track performance to something like the technology on the Porsche 918 is ridiculous.

[BeauV]

I've owned two 911s, and they've been reliably perfect.

The Model S is fast 0 to 60 and the batteries are low in the car so handling is reasonable, but to compare the track performance to something like the technology on the Porsche 918 is ridiculous.

Yup, you have to compare it to a Panamera, which it clobbers. Also, the track performance of the Model3 is simply faster than its competitors. (BMW 3, Audi A4, MBZ C) One has to compare horses to horses not horses to cows. Tesla hasn’t built a 918 competitor other than the initial roadster, that would be something to compare to a 914/6.

On the drive home from StFYC tonight I clobbered a Nissan GT/R. Nailed it off the line and got 4 car lengths by the time I hit 60. The kid didn’t know how to spool up the turbo before the light turned green. He also doesn’t let the computer shift and revs the thing way way way too far past the tongue peak. Easy meat for the Tesla. (I can’t believe I’m still drag racing at 66!! Don’t tell the Admiral!)