TheOffice wrote:It is crazy how fast this will transition. BMW/Mini is about to deliver an electric. Kia and Hyundai are coming online, starting in California. A longer range Leaf is due. However, the Japanese and Americans seem to be behind the curve.
The Volt is dead, the Prius is dying off as sales tank.
Now, when Rich converts his 5 tonner to plug into his Powerwall, we will know the apocalypse has arrived for IC engines.
Well, I can't really see that the statement "...Americans seem to be behind the curve." given that Tesla is an American company and is dominating the current market. Yes, most certainly, the classic "big three" US automakers are WAY behind the curve. I'd also agree that Toyota deciding to bring out a liquid hydrogen powered car was idiotic given the obvious customer move to electric cars. I think we can chalk up GM killing the Volt to typical GM idiotic behavior. Let's face it, GM would not still be in business if it didn't employ so many folks in states that are consider swing states by both parties.
I think that there are two questions which will be answered in the next couple of years:
First, what is the actual market size for electric cars which have a range of roughly the same size as the average car (300-400 miles)? Having been driving one of these for the last three years, I think folks will be quite surprised by the demand. It's much larger than the pundits thought. I think this is because folks are generally leaving out one crucial point, these are almost always second or third cars. The percentage of people/families with more than one car is very high and given that one only rarely travels more than 300 miles without returning home to re-charge, the range issue has turned out to be far less important that most people though it would be. A side effect of this mistake is that hybrids will turn out to be a mistake. The extra cost of building two drive trains in each car is substantial and proving to be unnecessary.
Second, while it's pretty clear that Tesla can compete with other lux brands (BMW, MBZ, Porsche, etc...) it is still not obvious that they can compete with mid-range car manufacturers. What has also been proven is that Tesla has used its lead and marketing approach to establish a "brand" which is every bit as compelling to buyers as the older lux brands. Interesting reading on Brand and its effect on car buying
HERE. In 2014 the #1 buyer of a Tesla Model S was a Prius owner. (
Source) Buy 2015 the type of person buying a Model S had radically changed to folks who were much younger and not in California. (
Source)
Clearly the question which Larry raises is a big one. To paraphrase, what happens when folks who have been designing great cars for decades decide to really focus on the electric car market. My response to that is: those companies can build great cars. What those companies have utterly failed to do, so far, is build great cars that are well integrated with the electronics which we all use constantly. All one has to do is deal with the Porsche navigation system or music system for a few minutes to turn it off and go back to playing all your music on your phone and having Waze guide you. Indeed, the auto manufacturers are so terrible at this that Apple and Android device mgf are basically providing those functions through things like CarPlay etc... I still remember when a Delco exec told me "Over my dead body" when I suggested they just given up and let Apple and Google do the electronics; because they were utterly incompetent at it. Well, I suppose he could be dead by now. But who in the world would buy a Delco or Bosch car navigation system? No one I know unless they are forced to. (Tesla mapping is done by Google)
Finally, to insure that the Tesla brand stays in the right position, you have to look at their halo car, the Roadster 2.0. It will be about $250k, which seems about right for what's in it. It is already driving around the test track. It has already laid down zero-60MPH times of
UNDER 2 SECONDS which is far faster than anything the Italians or Germans build for that price point. (
Source) Yes, it's a halo car, but that's what brands are built upon. No Ferrari owner wants to try and explain to his passenger that his car is just plain fast but it's still better than the faster Tesla. Especially with clouds of blue smoke billowing from the exhaust and all the popping and farting of the turbo going on. It turns out that while guys like exhaust noise, the vast majority of women do not.
So, while competition is always tough on the leader, in this case it isn't obvious to me that the big car builders actually have the stuff to make a big dent. What is most certainly true is that electric re-charge stations will start popping up everywhere and store owners will happily continue to call the tow trucks to get rid of the red-necks who park trucks in them illegally. When one considers the explosive growth of roof-top solar, battery technology, and performance. It's pretty clear that hybrids and hydrogen cars are soon to be the dinosaurs of our automotive industry. Gasoline - only for long trips.
