Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

[Jamie]

I hadn't realized that there was a Taycan "4S" for about $100k, it's priced right up against the Tesla Model S. From Porsche for the same money you get:
- about half the range
- 429hp vs 760hp
- 3.8 vs 2.4 zero to 60 times

Good article HERE with all this data. The author keeps trying to substitute the performance numbers for the $180k Taycan Turbo S but that one is almost twice the price of the Tesla. All of this is disappointing for a guy who has owned 2 Porsche SUVs and 2 Porsche Turbo sports cars. I expected the company to build a car that has better specs than a 5-year-old design from Tesla.

The Taycan probably under-reported it's HP# like many Porsches - and probably beats Tesla at autobahn speeds due to the second gear. But...nice to see an upstart come very close to or exceed an established brand.

[JoeP]

Well maybe if Sabine Schmitz was driving it would win.........

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... chmitz.jpg

Oh yeah!

[SemiSalt]

Here's a question. I went down to the parking garage to take a gander at an electric Suburu which I knew was parked there. Next to it, was this canvas covered thing. The other end yellow extension cord which ducks under the canvas is plugged into the same electrical box as the Suburu. From the other side, you can see a front wheel that's motorcycle-ish. So, what's under the canvas.

ebike.jpg

[slap]

Here's a question. I went down to the parking garage to take a gander at an electric Suburu which I knew was parked there. Next to it, was this canvas covered thing. The other end yellow extension cord which ducks under the canvas is plugged into the same electrical box as the Suburu. From the other side, you can see a front wheel that's motorcycle-ish. So, what's under the canvas.

ebike.jpg

Two guesses:

1) Trickle charger for the battery since the bike might not be used all winter.

2) Harley Livewire, their new electric motorcycle.

[SemiSalt]

Here's a question. I went down to the parking garage to take a gander at an electric Suburu which I knew was parked there. Next to it, was this canvas covered thing. The other end yellow extension cord which ducks under the canvas is plugged into the same electrical box as the Suburu. From the other side, you can see a front wheel that's motorcycle-ish. So, what's under the canvas.

ebike.jpg

Two guesses:

1) Trickle charger for the battery since the bike might not be used all winter.

2) Harley Livewire, their new electric motorcycle.

It has not been there all winter, and I've seen other expensive toys in the same garage, so it's entirely possible that it's a lLivewire. The charging station was put in by my church to accommodate the new rector's Suburo a couple months ago and I think it would be a bit uppity for a local resident to take advantage but maybe he got permission. The existence of the cover suggests this is the owner's home base. I'll keep my eye on it.

[TheOffice]

Meanwhile, Tesla stock has been nuts, climbing to 982 a share before a huge drop. Don't own any.

There is also talk to a new factory in Texas, with one starting construction soon in Germany.

[BeauV]

I think that Tesla stock would be quite sensitive to what's going on in China right now. I really don't see why the coronavirus should scare folks out of their wits, but there is lots of evidence of panic breaking out, especially with investors.

[kdh]

Type "Should I" into Google and the first auto-complete suggestion is "Should I buy Tesla stock." Just another bubble.

[Olaf Hart]

I think that Tesla stock would be quite sensitive to what's going on in China right now. I really don't see why the coronavirus should scare folks out of their wits, but there is lots of evidence of panic breaking out, especially with investors.

The coronavirus death rate, if the Chinese figures are to be trusted, is around 2%.

The regular influenza death rate is around 0.5%, and nearly 15,000 people died from it in the US last year.

That is the same number of US non suicide gun deaths.

The swine flu epidemic in 1919 had a death rate of up to 20%.

I am not arguing against isolating this thing, but now we have human to human spread it’s likely to become a long term management problem, we need to get some balance here.

[BeauV]

I think that Tesla stock would be quite sensitive to what's going on in China right now. I really don't see why the coronavirus should scare folks out of their wits, but there is lots of evidence of panic breaking out, especially with investors.

The coronavirus death rate, if the Chinese figures are to be trusted, is around 2%.

The regular influenza death rate is around 0.5%, and nearly 15,000 people died from it in the US last year.

That is the same number of US non suicide gun deaths.

The swine flu epidemic in 1919 had a death rate of up to 20%.

I am not arguing against isolating this thing, but now we have human to human spread it’s likely to become a long term management problem, we need to get some balance here.

OH,

I couldn't agree more with: "we need to get some balance here."

I've been hearing Ro numbers from 2.2 to 3.5, claims that there are 200,000+ folks in China who already have it (which if the fatalities reported are accurate means a much lower death rate than earlier reported), etc.. etc.... etc.... Pretty weird to make categorical statements about who "has it", when there are probably a lot of folks who are sick and just getting on with life, just like a lot of folks do with every other flu. How do you know how many people have it but haven't reported it? Can't be done.

All that said, stock markets move based on rumors. Tesla goes up like crazy because the factory in China is up and running and Model 3s are selling like hot cakes, there's a massive flu epidemic in China, quick sell Tesla. The stock went from $780, to $887 yesterday, back to $734 today! The stock price looks more like BitCoin than a car company. Ah me.... humans....

[kdh]

The stock price looks more like BitCoin than a car company.

Says it all.

[Jamie]

I think that Tesla stock would be quite sensitive to what's going on in China right now. I really don't see why the coronavirus should scare folks out of their wits, but there is lots of evidence of panic breaking out, especially with investors.

The coronavirus death rate, if the Chinese figures are to be trusted, is around 2%.

The regular influenza death rate is around 0.5%, and nearly 15,000 people died from it in the US last year.

That is the same number of US non suicide gun deaths.

The swine flu epidemic in 1919 had a death rate of up to 20%.

I am not arguing against isolating this thing, but now we have human to human spread it’s likely to become a long term management problem, we need to get some balance here.

Wuhan has a death rate of about 2.8%, and the foreign countries reporting have death rate vaguely withing the confidence interval, but other Chinese cities have much lower death rates. For example GuangZhou had about 1k infections reported and you might expect between 10-30 deaths - right now they have zero. It's not necessarily something nefarious, but it is curious.

[TheOffice]

The admiral is a nurse. She tells me the CDC is advising it is only fatal fro those who are already seriously compromised.

[Audrey]

But...nice to see an upstart come very close to or exceed an established brand.

Which is which? Depends on how you look at it right?

The stock price looks more like BitCoin than a car company.

Says it all.

that's what I was thinking. Speculation is a powerful thing and unfortunately influences stock prices among everything else in the world. Tesla has had some pretty big growing pains with the model 3 and quite frankly I think they're over priced. But I'm not their intended market.
I couldn't be more disappointed with the Porche. The price, the power, or the name. How are you going to call it a Turbo?

[Jamie]

Which is which? Depends on how you look at it right?

Yeah, good question...My opinion is that Tesla is/are a bunch of newbs when it comes to automotive design, tuning, and large scale mfg of a complex product like a car. Porsche know the above, but can (should?) they adapt their thinking to how EVs change cars?

[SemiSalt]

Which is which? Depends on how you look at it right?

Yeah, good question...My opinion is that Tesla is/are a bunch of newbs when it comes to automotive design, tuning, and large scale mfg of a complex product like a car. Porsche know the above, but can (should?) they adapt their thinking to how EVs change cars?

Formula E had its fifth season in 2019. They must have an engineering staff that can do the power train

[LarryHoward]

Have to disagree. The Taycan is first and foremost a Porsche, albeit an electric. It fits into the Porsche range. Climb into one and you are in a Porsche that happens to be electric. They have the service experience down cold.

Tesla offers a 4 wheeled iPhone. Very competent and spare in a high tech way. You pick a version. You get a small selection of extra cost optional colors and can have white or black upholstery. A choice of the standard wheels or a $1,500 sport wheel. Then you can spend a big chunk ($7,000) on future “full self drive” that you may not live long enough to ever see. Absolutely functional and reportedly intuitive and easy to use with regular updates. Also about as personalized as a rental Kia. It absolutely works as an tech platform and has drawn a cult of supporters.

We will likely buy a mid size electric SUV as our next car if Lynne’s 15 YO, 140k mile Toyota ever dies. I’ve run the model Y configurable several times and prices are high but no higher than any other mid premium brand. Build quality has apparently improved but enough complaints remain about paint quality, etc to make me wonder. Barring a catastrophic failure of the Toyota, we are a couple of years away from the next car and will watch the newcomers to the EV market carefully before we make a decision.

[Audrey]

Formula E had its fifth season in 2019. They must have an engineering staff that can do the power train

I'm not sure what you mean by this? All forms of motorsports have engineers on staff at the top levels. When F1 Mercedes starts a race, there are no less than 1,100 people awake, monitoring information and making changes to the cars in real time all around the world.

Formula E is boring. I've tried watching it and would rather watch formula 3. Or watch drifting (and I hate drifting). Top speed of a an FE is ~140mph. F1 is 225 and they're carrying 4-5 G's through the turns. F1 is planning on switching over to full electric by 2021, and it pains me to think that new fans won't be exposed to the sounds and smells of F1. It has nothing to do with the environment and racing. Race cars don't run long enough to really make a difference but they can set an example. Oh well, at least drag racing still burns stuff to go fast.

The change to electric in F1 will advance EV's at a greatly accelerated rate.

[LarryHoward]

Formula E had its fifth season in 2019. They must have an engineering staff that can do the power train

I'm not sure what you mean by this? All forms of motorsports have engineers on staff at the top levels. When F1 Mercedes starts a race, there are no less than 1,100 people awake, monitoring information and making changes to the cars in real time all around the world.

Formula E is boring. I've tried watching it and would rather watch formula 3. Or watch drifting (and I hate drifting). Top speed of a an FE is ~140mph. F1 is 225 and they're carrying 4-5 G's through the turns. F1 is planning on switching over to full electric by 2021, and it pains me to think that new fans won't be exposed to the sounds and smells of F1. It has nothing to do with the environment and racing. Race cars don't run long enough to really make a difference but they can set an example. Oh well, at least drag racing still burns stuff to go fast.

The change to electric in F1 will advance EV's at a greatly accelerated rate.

Where do you hear F-1 going electric next year? FIA made a statement in December that it will be decades, if at all. https://jalopnik.com/fia-president-says ... 1840534923

Back on 1 April (check the date) last year, Drivetribe ran a "fully electric in 2021" story.

First, there is no way the constructors would agree that quickly and Ferrari has a veto vote on F-1 regulations and is not likely to agree to electric F-1. 2021 rules are mostly about simplified aero to try to clean up the wake to allow more passing and controlling costs. Recap of the 2021 F-1 regs at https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/arti ... rJwTk.html

[Audrey]

Have to disagree. The Taycan is first and foremost a Porsche, albeit an electric. It fits into the Porsche range. Climb into one and you are in a Porsche that happens to be electric. They have the service experience down cold.

Tesla offers a 4 wheeled iPhone. Very competent and spare in a high tech way. You pick a version. You get a small selection of extra cost optional colors and can have white or black upholstery. A choice of the standard wheels or a $1,500 sport wheel. Then you can spend a big chunk ($7,000) on future “full self drive” that you may not live long enough to ever see. Absolutely functional and reportedly intuitive and easy to use with regular updates. Also about as personalized as a rental Kia. It absolutely works as an tech platform and has drawn a cult of supporters.

Well put Larry. I've heard about the paint issue from my old boss who bought a Model 3. Then was given a Model S to drive around for 3 months while they "fixed" the paint. The 3 also had a touch screen that did everything. Including turning on lights and adjusting the speed of your wipers, which you had to scroll through 3 screens, as you're driving in hazard conditions, to get to the screen that controlled the wiper speed. That is completely unacceptable for a $50-60k car. Tesla is not a car company in my opinion. Maybe one day they will be.

[Audrey]

Back on 1 April (check the date) last year, Drivetribe ran a "fully electric in 2021" story.

First, there is no way the constructors would agree that quickly and Ferrari has a veto vote on F-1 regulations and is not likely to agree to electric F-1. 2021 rules are mostly about simplified aero to try to clean up the wake to allow more passing and controlling costs. Recap of the 2021 F-1 regs at https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/arti ... rJwTk.html

Larry you are correct, I had read the Drivetribe article and admittedly zoned out after that.

I read another article that they were going to move to a hybrid platform in the future which I don't care for either. I knew they were going to limit the front wing design due to cost. I have some photos of the Mercedes wings from last year and they're ridiculously complex.

[Jamie]

Which is which? Depends on how you look at it right?

Yeah, good question...My opinion is that Tesla is/are a bunch of newbs when it comes to automotive design, tuning, and large scale mfg of a complex product like a car. Porsche know the above, but can (should?) they adapt their thinking to how EVs change cars?

Formula E had its fifth season in 2019. They must have an engineering staff that can do the power train

Low volume homologation of race cars that get re-built every race, are supported by an engineering team and where NVH and secondary quality is non-existent a very different animal than a high volume car built to a price point (even if high).

The Taycan is first and foremost a Porsche, albeit an electric. It fits into the Porsche range

In my mind this is the interesting question. Traditional car mfg are building cars that are electric. Tesla, as you say is building a 4-wheeled iPhone. Given my kids attitudes towards cars vs, say mine, I wonder if there is still demand for "cars". Porsche might make it because it's always been a low volume enthusiast brand. The rest.....

[LarryHoward]

The Taycan is first and foremost a Porsche, albeit an electric. It fits into the Porsche range

In my mind this is the interesting question. Traditional car mfg are building cars that are electric. Tesla, as you say is building a 4-wheeled iPhone. Given my kids attitudes towards cars vs, say mine, I wonder if there is still demand for "cars". Porsche might make it because it's always been a low volume enthusiast brand. The rest.....

Jaime,

A very thought provoking question. I tend to be a "second generation adopter" rather than an early adopter. Helps to avoid the stillborn (any new generation Supra buyers out there?) and historically avoided things such as $1,000 CD players and buying betamax rather than VHS. I'm glad we have deep pocket early adopters that help sort out the offerings. Of course, being conservative meant I turned down the $2,000 Sunbeam Tiger when I was in college and sold a 1969 911 for $4,000 in 1985.

I think many of the companies are trying to fit into the middle. Build a new electric platform but make the rest of the car true to their brand identity. Tesla had a clean sheet once they stopped making the electric Lotus roadster. I've been a doubter but acknowledge they have been climbing past the niche Model S and X buyers and have a pretty solid offering in the Model 3. Model Y looks promising but can't they do something about the nose on those 2? I have come close to a deposit on the Y but don't "need" a car in the near term and alternatives re popping up. We have 3 cars plus my son's spare Civic in the garage so no failure puts us into a walking mode. If the Sienna dies a sudden death, Lynne will drive the Civic or the S-2000 until we pick up the next car. I expect Tesla to get to 3-4 week delivery on average and the traditional manufacturers to have at least a regional supply once in full production. New model 3 buyers claim a big improvement in panel gap and paint quality but I'd be tempted to take a paint meter to a test drive.....

Beau is correct in that EVs are close to mainstream and will be in the next couple of years. By the time my 2 YO grandson gets his license, ICE's will be relics of a past era. He might inherit a nice S-2000 AP2 that will be a curiosity by then. In the meantime, the growl when I start my Macan S makes me smile every morning and the S-2000 on a spring day with a windy road takes away all of the workday stress.

[Ajax]

Betamax? I have you beat- I bought those giant video discs and had a Laserdisc player.

Yes, I'm a rube.

[SemiSalt]

Betamax? I have you beat- I bought those giant video discs and had a Laserdisc player.

Yes, I'm a rube.

I know I have a box of 5 1/4 inch floppies, but I have not seen a videocassette for the Commodore 64 in a long time.

[Jamie]

In the meantime, the growl when I start my Macan S makes me smile every morning

Ah yes - cold starting my STi - all my neighbors get to wake up too.

[Ajax]

In the meantime, the growl when I start my Macan S makes me smile every morning

Ah yes - cold starting my STi - all my neighbors get to wake up too.

I won't start the 5-ton or the HMMWV until at least 8am on weekdays, 9:30am on weekends.

[Jamie]

In the meantime, the growl when I start my Macan S makes me smile every morning

Ah yes - cold starting my STi - all my neighbors get to wake up too.

I won't start the 5-ton or the HMMWV until at least 8am on weekdays, 9:30am on weekends.

That's very thoughtful of you. I had no choice, so it was 6am most days. I did try to keep the time down to a minimum and leave quickly.

[kimbottles]

Back when I was gainfully employed there were people in Blakely Harbor who claimed to use my commuter boat departure as their alarm clock. I left every morning about 5:30 am. When I retired several of them started to blame me for their oversleeping (all in fun of course.)

[kdh]

I just got back from a long weekend at the Porsche Experience Center in Atlanta.

I left thinking that Porsches, all of them, are insanely well-designed machines. The facilities there: a handling track, various low-friction areas, a "dynamics area" to try "launch control," simulators, allow developing a real sense of the cars' capabilities. Really fun playground.

I drove a Cayman GTS one day and a Turbo S the next. Both awesome in their own way.

They had a bunch of Taycans there. It's a great looking car. The driving coaches say it's amazing to drive. Really capable for a heavy car. I left thinking that there is no way Tesla will have an edge, of any sort, on Porsche for long.

We must be reminded that Porsches are expensive, getting more so, and likely will always be. But people are obviously willing to pay for high quality.