Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

[LarryHoward]

I just got back from a long weekend at the Porsche Experience Center in Atlanta.

I left thinking that Porsches, all of them, are insanely well-designed machines. The facilities there: a handling track, various low-friction areas, a "dynamics area" to try "launch control," simulators, allow developing a real sense of the cars' capabilities. Really fun playground.

I drove a Cayman GTS one day and a Turbo S the next. Both awesome in their own way.

They had a bunch of Taycans there. It's a great looking car. The driving coaches say it's amazing to drive. Really capable for a heavy car. I left thinking that there is no way Tesla will have an edge, of any sort, on Porsche for long.

We must be reminded that Porsches are expensive, getting more so, and likely will always be. But people are obviously willing to pay for high quality.

PEC is on my bucket list one day although my track and autocrossing days are pretty much over. I mostly coach my son these days.

[TheOffice]

The one area where Tesla is way ahead is charging stations. It will be years before a Taycan is a road trip vehicle.

I've driven the S and would take it over any ICE car I've ever been in. When I replace me current car I might consider a used S over a new ___. A 2016 S is about 40k. Can't buy much of anything EV for that.

Joel

[Jamie]

There's no magic. Porsche have a very good brand and design language and marketing folks that understand what Porsche is.

But other than that, Porsche is a car mfg like any other. If you look at the quality of the castings, pistons, crank and the design choices for a Cayman or Cayenne, you can see that it is built to a very different standard than the 911. The 911s justifiably have earned their reputation a supercars you can daily, mostly because the cooling capacity the Porsche builds in in pretty amazing. Other than that, when you take them to pieces, they look very much like many other cars. I'm less than impressed with the PDK transmissions. Expensive, fragile and temperamental are the thoughts that come to mind. All this is just my opinion after having a bunch of Caymans, 991s, 996s, GT2/3 and various other German and Japanese hardware in pieces. The GT3 was a very impressive piece of kit. Tuning is reproducible and the rest is marketing.

[kdh]

There's no magic. Porsche have a very good brand and design language and marketing folks that understand what Porsche is.

But other than that, Porsche is a car mfg like any other. If you look at the quality of the castings, pistons, crank and the design choices for a Cayman or Cayenne, you can see that it is built to a very different standard than the 911. The 911s justifiably have earned their reputation a supercars you can daily, mostly because the cooling capacity the Porsche builds in in pretty amazing. Other than that, when you take them to pieces, they look very much like many other cars. I'm less than impressed with the PDK transmissions. Expensive, fragile and temperamental are the thoughts that come to mind. All this is just my opinion after having a bunch of Caymans, 991s, 996s, GT2/3 and various other German and Japanese hardware in pieces. The GT3 was a very impressive piece of kit. Tuning is reproducible and the rest is marketing.

I know little, which is likely the reason I drank the Kool-Aid.

I had a 2005 C2S and now have a 2014. Switched to PDK with the latest one and have had no regrets. Neither "fragile" nor "temperamental" are part of my impression.

We had some cold temperatures and wet pavement last weekend which is why they switched us to the Turbo S from the GT3s that we asked for. I had no idea how much fun I'd have with the all-wheel drive, especially in the way it can be used to accelerate out of oversteer.

I practically shit my pants during a demo drive with one of the coaches. Huge difference between someone who can drive (him) and someone who can't (me).

[BeauV]

Keith, my 996 Turbo convertible with the GT2 motor in it was a wonderful car. I drove it hard enough that I convinced myself that I'd probably die in that car if I kept going. Hitting a rabbit at 173 MPH in the middle of the Nevada desert was a wake-up call.

The true comparison to the Tesla S is the Panamera. The two cars are the same speed 0-60: 3.2 seconds. But, Porsche is about 30% more expensive and actually heavier. (which is nuts) While I'm pretty sure that the Porsche would be slightly faster on a race track, I've run into very few people who actually drive on a race track. For daily driving, the lower purchase price and much MUCH lower operating costs put the Tesla WAY ahead of the Porsche.

The Model X doesn't match up with the Cayanne, because the X is a mini-van regardless of what Elon says and the Cayenne isn't. That said, the X is a mini-van that will do 0-60 in 3.4 seconds.

No, I think that the simple fact that the Model 3 has become the #1 best-selling luxury sedan in the country (Source) says it all.

Then there's the fact that the Model S has become the best-selling large luxury sedan in the country (Source) further cements the case. Model S: 29,950 units sold. Panamera: 8,114 units sold

Look, I like Porsche, BMW, MBZ, and Audi cars. My wife and I have owned all of them. But the customers are saying loud and clear that they prefer the Tesla. It's not because it's electric, it's because it's a better car.

[kdh]

Beau, I think some people, maybe most, buy Porsches and Teslas to associate themselves with the brand identity.

I bought my sports cars because I think they're cool. They're the satisfaction of dreams I had when I was a kid.

I have a 5 mile commute on which I average less than 30 mph. A $15,000 Toyota Yaris would serve my needs just fine and have all the comforts I desire for my 10 minute commute.

[kimbottles]

Beau, I think some people, maybe most, buy Porsches and Teslas to associate themselves with the brand identity.

I bought my sports cars because I think they're cool. They're the satisfaction of dreams I had when I was a kid.

I have a 5 mile commute on which I average less than 30 mph. A $15,000 Toyota Yaris would serve my needs just fine and have all the comforts I desire for my 10 minute commute.

So would a Leaf.......

[kdh]

Beau, I think some people, maybe most, buy Porsches and Teslas to associate themselves with the brand identity.

I bought my sports cars because I think they're cool. They're the satisfaction of dreams I had when I was a kid.

I have a 5 mile commute on which I average less than 30 mph. A $15,000 Toyota Yaris would serve my needs just fine and have all the comforts I desire for my 10 minute commute.

So would a Leaf.......

But at twice the cost for the car. At 10 miles a day fuel is cheap.

[Anomaly]

A $15,000 Toyota Yaris would serve my needs just fine and have all the comforts I desire for my 10 minute commute.

A Yaris is an upscale Echo (that doesn't get the mileage that an Echo does...). I had an Echo (until my daughter totaled it...). Used to get 43 mpg no matter how I drove it. An Echo was about $10k while a Prius was in excess of $20k and couldn't match the mpg figures in real world tests. My brother called the Echo "the hybrid for people that can do math."

[kimbottles]

Maybe Keith should get a bicycle for commuting.......

[kdh]

A $15,000 Toyota Yaris would serve my needs just fine and have all the comforts I desire for my 10 minute commute.

A Yaris is an upscale Echo (that doesn't get the mileage that an Echo does...). I had an Echo (until my daughter totaled it...). Used to get 43 mpg no matter how I drove it. An Echo was about $10k while a Prius was in excess of $20k and couldn't match the mpg figures in real world tests. My brother called the Echo "the hybrid for people that can do math."

Hey I can do math! The last Echo was made in 2005, apparently.

But you're right, if I want upscale I should probably just stick with the Ferrari. Didn't realize the Yaris would tag me as uppity.

[Jamie]

A $15,000 Toyota Yaris would serve my needs just fine and have all the comforts I desire for my 10 minute commute.

A Yaris is an upscale Echo (that doesn't get the mileage that an Echo does...). I had an Echo (until my daughter totaled it...). Used to get 43 mpg no matter how I drove it. An Echo was about $10k while a Prius was in excess of $20k and couldn't match the mpg figures in real world tests. My brother called the Echo "the hybrid for people that can do math."

Hey I can do math! The last Echo was made in 2005, apparently.

But you're right, if I want upscale I should probably just stick with the Ferrari. Didn't realize the Yaris would tag me as uppity.

No matter what you do, someone will find a reason to throw rocks. Might as well do it in style.

[BeauV]

Beau, I think some people, maybe most, buy Porsches and Teslas to associate themselves with the brand identity.

I bought my sports cars because I think they're cool. They're the satisfaction of dreams I had when I was a kid.

I have a 5 mile commute on which I average less than 30 mph. A $15,000 Toyota Yaris would serve my needs just fine and have all the comforts I desire for my 10 minute commute.

Keith, I completely agree. Most folks buy "brand" not the car. That's why we have Ford Guys and Chevy Guys getting in fights at bars.

Personally, I'm weird this way for daily driving cars. I think of getting to work or commuting from Santa Cruz to San Francisco as an engineering puzzle. EG: "What's the best most efficient way to deliver the experience I want for the least money and lowest carbon footprint?" That said: I still enjoy the smell of burning oil when I drive the Morgan.

I love driving the Tesla around town in stop-n-go traffic, utterly silent, using almost no power when sitting at a red light or in a traffic jam. Somewhere along the line, the engineer in me decided that efficiency was a MUCH higher goal than race track performance. I think it was about the time that I realize that I would never be able to match the driving skill of the really good guys on the track, and driving like a maniac on the streets might get me and others killed or injured. That was when I sold the Turbo. (It's embarrassing that I was in my late 50s when I came to this realization. ) Now, I'm getting my competitive jollies by trying to lower my carbon footprint vs lowering my lap time.

[Chris Chesley]

Yup, efficiency beats out performance. Or, for me, efficiency = performance. It's also probably why I'll never make a very good powerboat owner....!

My little Kia Niro hybrid does better than my Prius did. I call it the Prius killer. (more comfy, less statement, but still more efficient) Summertime fuel blend (better efficiency over winter blend), I get 50-55 mpg. I drove from Spokane to Anacortes a couple years ago on less than a tank of gas and got 60 mpg for the over 300 mile trip. (yes,... it was pretty much downhill over the Cascades, but still)

[Audrey]

...I realize that I would never be able to match the driving skill of the really good guys on the track, and driving like a maniac on the streets might get me and others killed or injured. That was when I sold the Turbo.

None of us will be able to drive like Hamilton or sail like Spithill, but I still enjoy a sunny day at the track or a sporty day on the water. Sometimes just competing is enough. The camaro probably gets 10 miles to the gallon on the highway (at 3500rpms) and much less if I put my foot into it. But I also have a 4 cylinder truck that does everything else. The truck goes 10-12k miles a year, the camaro might see 1,000. I don't worry about the camaro's footprint.

[Tucky]

I guess my automotive choices are fairly off the norm, but they are right for me. Everything used, because nothing improves cost per mile numbers like buying used and lowering depreciation. For Keith's commute (mine is more like 25 miles each way) I have a 2000 Honda Insight I bought a year and a half ago. It remains the most efficient automobile ever made in terms of overall resistance as I understand it, due to low weight, aero drag and rolling resistance. Like you, Beau, it brings out my inner competitiveness, trying to get the best average mileage from a given tank. The fun part is that it is actually hard to drive to really good numbers, with a manual transmission (essentially two overdrives) and a lean burn mode when you can find it, that will get over 100 mpg. I have to strategize hills and grades for gear choice, and traffic and stoplights for momentum. My understanding is the car failed because of it's size and being only for two passengers, and because of the difficulty of driving right and managing the battery, which requires attention. 55 mpg since it was built, 62 is my best tank yet

For winter, pulling my toys, and carrying 6 people like the cars of our parents, I have a 15mpg. Tundra. If I applied the skills from the Insight I know I could save more gasoline in the Tundra, but it inspires "whatever" as it goes about it's business.

For driving fun, the Caterham is perfect, so long as rain or interstates or capacity or comfort or distance or night time aren't part of the deal- it fits in a trailer for that

[Jamie]

If it's not hotter than the surface of the sun or raining, I walk to work.

The Subaru STi is probably the only sports car you can do a cross-country move in in the snow and carry 4 people in relative comfort. But it is a dinosaur. Rod shifter, pillow balls, less sound insulation, 12mpg around town, 25 on the highway if you stay out of boost. 75mph is exactly 3k rpm in 6th gear - just on the verge of boost. A car that I can work on pretty easily with basic tools and a laptop.

The family truckster is a Jeep Grand Cherokee with air suspension. Big, quiet, holds a lot. 14mpg around town, 30 on the highway. CPO dealer car - so cheep. Too complex to work on at home other than minor routine stuff.

Almost assuredly the last ICE cars I will own.

[Anomaly]

For Keith's commute (mine is more like 25 miles each way) I have a 2000 Honda Insight I bought a year and a half ago. It remains the most efficient automobile ever made in terms of overall resistance as I understand it, due to low weight, aero drag and rolling resistance.

Yep, a real relic-- the original Insights are really something. Bolger's widow, Susanne, has one and your story reminds me of hers. The car is simply different than anything else out there and in a way a condemnation of the current approach to EVs. To think that yours is 20 years old!

Remember that documentary "Who Killed the Electric Car?" Those were the only thing that comes close to the original Insights outside-the-box thinking.

[Tucky]

For Keith's commute (mine is more like 25 miles each way) I have a 2000 Honda Insight I bought a year and a half ago. It remains the most efficient automobile ever made in terms of overall resistance as I understand it, due to low weight, aero drag and rolling resistance.

Yep, a real relic-- the original Insights are really something. Bolger's widow, Susanne, has one and your story reminds me of hers. The car is simply different than anything else out there and in a way a condemnation of the current approach to EVs. To think that yours is 20 years old!

Remember that documentary "Who Killed the Electric Car?" Those were the only thing that comes close to the original Insights outside-the-box thinking.

I wanted one from the beginning as I had had one of the first generation CRX's, but misunderstood a bunch of stuff about them, most importantly that they were made almost entirely of aluminum and plastic in the same factory as the NSX, so they don't have the usual sell-by date, even in Maine. I've had to redo the brake lines, which had corrosion issues after 20 years- otherwise normal maintenance at 150,000 miles. The battery needs attention, namely it needs to be grid charged periodically to have the cells rebalanced, and Honda either didn't understand or didn't think the car would sell if they made this part of ownership, so instead they ended up having to extend the warranty on the battery and let aftermarket folks figure out the charger. Luckily the car has attained cult status, with aftermarket suppliers and plenty of dedicated owners and modifiers and forums, so my $6,000 car should hold its value no matter how long I drive it- I'm thinking the perfect first car for my 11 year grandson who sees a car just as a glimmer in his future and, right behind, is beginning to have a glimmer of how much a LaFerrari costs in relation to LEGGO.

The biggest thing I've noticed in a lifetime of car buying is how much better they all have gotten, and yet the used car market still over values new from my perspective. My response has been to own multiple used cars that are specialized, and not to be afraid of cars with 100,000 miles on them. The purchase prices of my three cars together are considerably less than a Tesla S, they outperform any single car in in terms of what they together can do, and they are holding value better than any new car except an exotic.

Of course, if I had the scratch, I'd scratch the itch with an exotic or two, but I expect my heart will never make the leap from analog to digital, so the Carrera GT may be my final fantasy exotic. C'mon KD, step up, you know you want to, I know you can:-)

https://bringatrailer.com/listing/2004- ... rera-gt-2/

[LarryHoward]

For Keith's commute (mine is more like 25 miles each way) I have a 2000 Honda Insight I bought a year and a half ago. It remains the most efficient automobile ever made in terms of overall resistance as I understand it, due to low weight, aero drag and rolling resistance.

Yep, a real relic-- the original Insights are really something. Bolger's widow, Susanne, has one and your story reminds me of hers. The car is simply different than anything else out there and in a way a condemnation of the current approach to EVs. To think that yours is 20 years old!

Remember that documentary "Who Killed the Electric Car?" Those were the only thing that comes close to the original Insights outside-the-box thinking.

I wanted one from the beginning as I had had one of the first generation CRX's, but misunderstood a bunch of stuff about them, most importantly that they were made almost entirely of aluminum and plastic in the same factory as the NSX, so they don't have the usual sell-by date, even in Maine. I've had to redo the brake lines, which had corrosion issues after 20 years- otherwise normal maintenance at 150,000 miles. The battery needs attention, namely it needs to be grid charged periodically to have the cells rebalanced, and Honda either didn't understand or didn't think the car would sell if they made this part of ownership, so instead they ended up having to extend the warranty on the battery and let aftermarket folks figure out the charger. Luckily the car has attained cult status, with aftermarket suppliers and plenty of dedicated owners and modifiers and forums, so my $6,000 car should hold its value no matter how long I drive it- I'm thinking the perfect first car for my 11 year grandson who sees a car just as a glimmer in his future and, right behind, is beginning to have a glimmer of how much a LaFerrari costs in relation to LEGGO.

The biggest thing I've noticed in a lifetime of car buying is how much better they all have gotten, and yet the used car market still over values new from my perspective. My response has been to own multiple used cars that are specialized, and not to be afraid of cars with 100,000 miles on them. The purchase prices of my three cars together are considerably less than a Tesla S, they outperform any single car in in terms of what they together can do, and they are holding value better than any new car except an exotic.

Of course, if I had the scratch, I'd scratch the itch with an exotic or two, but I expect my heart will never make the leap from analog to digital, so the Carrera GT may be my final fantasy exotic. C'mon KD, step up, you know you want to, I know you can:-)

https://bringatrailer.com/listing/2004- ... rera-gt-2/

Agree. My garage hold 4 cars ATM with a total value of significantly less than $100K. 2 have >100K miles (104 and 140), one at 52K and the "fun Car" S2000 at 46K. For DD's, I drive them until they are ready to scrap or donate to charity and then buy a CPO replacement and start the cycle again. Each lasts 12-15 years. The 140K, 15 YO minivan will likely be replaced by an electric when it dies. The 4 YO Macan may get replaced with a mobility scooter by the time it goes away. The S-2000 gets about 1500-2000 miles per year of pleasurable fun and, as said above, may end up with my 2 YO grandson in 14-15 years.

I would bid on the GT but it's the wrong color for me..... I'm sure it will go for 7 figures.

[kdh]

Tucky, I saw a Carrera GT in the museum at the Porsche Experience Center last weekend. Silver like that one but with a baseball-glove-colored interior. I've never seen one in other than that color. George Chambers, a dealer in the area, told a friend that the car is a beast. Practically uncontrollable power.

I also heard one at a dealer when they were introduced. The V10 sounds wicked pissah as we like to say around here.

I want to say they were less than $500k new. I think the design has help up to time quite well.

Larry, the driving coaches at PEC are really impressed with the Macan. If I remember correctly your son has a 997 much like my first Porsche. Manual with Sport Chrono. Mine also had ceramic brakes.

[LarryHoward]

Tucky, I saw a Carrera GT in the museum at the Porsche Experience Center last weekend. Silver like that one but with a baseball-glove-colored interior. I've never seen one in other than that color. George Chambers, a dealer in the area, told a friend that the car is a beast. Practically uncontrollable power.

I also heard one at a dealer when they were introduced. The V10 sounds wicked pissah as we like to say around here.

I want to say they were less than $500k new. I think the design has help up to time quite well.

Larry, the driving coaches at PEC are really impressed with the Macan. If I remember correctly your son has a 997 much like my first Porsche. Manual with Sport Chrono. Mine also had ceramic brakes.

Keith,

Correct. I have a Macan S that I like very much. Tows what i need and a pleasure to drive even with the winter shoes right now. Dealer gave me a base Macan as a loaner for a couple of weeks and it's equally nice but much "softer" . Chris does have a 997.1 6 Speed. Came with ceramics but a PO converted it to steel discs sometime before he bought it at 60K miles. Has the factory aero kit (that year's GT3 aero) and H&R sport springs and a short shifter kit. Black/Black full leather with M7 forged wheels (kept the OEM "lobster forks" as spares). Nice driver and not so low that it endangers the air dam. He was second to a GT3 at the last PCA Autocross of the season with it so it's reasonably quick and he's a solid driver. (SCCA regional Autocross champion in his other car)

[Tucky]

I know I'm always suggesting that all you good people should get to Maine in your boats, but if any of you with a sweet car has the will, you should bring your car to Loring Air Base for my autocross group's weekend event- usually the second weekend in August (after the Wooden boat races for anyone that wants to combine both pleasures).

It is off the end of the earth, I know, but a remarkable place- essentially a cold war ruin with a concrete runway that will be there for a long time. Put 46°57'07.7"N 67°53'23.3"W into your map and you will probably see our tracks. No one else uses the place except they do motorcycle land speed records there and other top speed races from time to time.

Sanctioned autocross has an 85 mph speed limit that gets pushed. It isn't straight line speed but learning how high speed turns work is safety is the attraction. And heck, you could continue on in the fall to Targa Newfoundland, my dream trip, though not in a Caterham- Jamie, get that STI up there. But I digress.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=33aUCsjXJp4

[kdh]

I'm always bewildered by people's focus on straight line speed. Airplanes are good for that. I get so many "how fast have you gone"s. Not very. And who cares?

It's like asking a sailor "how long does it take for you to get there?" Who cares? It's about the voyage. You want it to last a long time.

My favorite part of the Porsche experience thing was the low friction handling course. Getting the Turbo to slide around in a controlled way, getting the car back in control after taking it to the edge.

[LarryHoward]

Keith. Low friction is great fun at low risk.

As the saying goes, it’s more fun to drive a slow car fast than a fast car slow. Chris’ car is wicked fun but so competent you have to drive seriously fast to really enjoy it. The S-2000 is wicked fun at 1/2 the speed.

[Jamie]

I know I'm always suggesting that all you good people should get to Maine in your boats, but if any of you with a sweet car has the will, you should bring your car to Loring Air Base for my autocross group's weekend event- usually the second weekend in August (after the Wooden boat races for anyone that wants to combine both pleasures).

It is off the end of the earth, I know, but a remarkable place- essentially a cold war ruin with a concrete runway that will be there for a long time. Put 46°57'07.7"N 67°53'23.3"W into your map and you will probably see our tracks. No one else uses the place except they do motorcycle land speed records there and other top speed races from time to time.

Sanctioned autocross has an 85 mph speed limit that gets pushed. It isn't straight line speed but learning how high speed turns work is safety is the attraction. And heck, you could continue on in the fall to Targa Newfoundland, my dream trip, though not in a Caterham- Jamie, get that STI up there. But I digress.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=33aUCsjXJp4

My STi started in Maine. I bought it in Ellsworth . There are some great roads in the North part.

As the saying goes, it’s more fun to drive a slow car fast than a fast car slow.

This is the conundrum of many high performance cars. They are so refined that you must be traveling at extra-legal go-straight-to-the-pokey speeds to feel anything.

My favorite part of the Porsche experience thing was the low friction handling course.

Funny right - the limits of those cars are so high that you need to run them on low friction surfaces to experience a slide in safety.

[BeauV]

Keith. Low friction is great fun at low risk.

As the saying goes, it’s more fun to drive a slow car fast than a fast car slow. Chris’ car is wicked fun but so competent you have to drive seriously fast to really enjoy it. The S-2000 is wicked fun at 1/2 the speed.

Larry, you just described exactly why I still own and deeply enjoy my old 1965 Morgan with it's 1911 front suspension, narrow tires, and 150hp engine. No windshield, no windows, no heater, no radio, just fun stuff. Going around a corner at less than 1/2 the speed of what my 996 Turbo would do is both terrifying and a great deal more fun.

[Tucky]

[quote="BeauV" No windshield, no windows, no heater, no radio, just fun stuff.[/quote]

Doors, you have doors. We used to dream of having doors in our Caterham. Had to drive uphill both ways to work in the winter, we did, with naught but two wheel drive. Try and tell that to kids nowadays.

Said in my best Python voice, bless them all.

[BeauV]

LOL! Yes, the Morgan has doors. However, we roadster drivers used to take great pride in just walking out of the car and not bothering with the door. The dog doesn't use the door either, making the passenger seat in one hop. She also has the advantage that her head is higher than the aero screen so she gets a full face full of all the wonderful smells we drive through.

[SemiSalt]

Driving electric cars until they stop: a comparison is several models.

https://youtu.be/ZH7V2tU3iFc

Spoiler: Tesla does well.