Conoravirus ...

[Panope]

Our town added one new case today (total 9) out of 60 new test results (the most test results returned so far).

9 positive
220 negative
176 pending
405 tested

No deaths.

[LarryHoward]

Seems a very high negative test rate. Are they requiring clear symptoms to order testing or is it generally available. One of my managers’ daughters lives in NYC and is reporting they are not being tested unless they need to be hospitalized. Just being told to self isolate and come in if they have significant breathing issues.

[SemiSalt]

One does hope that there is mandatory reporting of these non-tested cases.

[Ajax]

I got the impression yesterday, that testing is finally ramping up nationwide, in a big way.
I hope that's the case because it'll make going to work a lot safer.

[LarryHoward]

One does hope that there is mandatory reporting of these non-tested cases.

I hope so as well but I'm being told that folks in NYC can't see a doctor unless they are severe and are just being told to stay home and self medicate....Not sure how that gets tracked.

That's also a problem as the NY relief bill requires folks being ordered into quarantine by a public health official. A family doc isn't enough. We have a potential case in NY who has been tested, told to stay home but we can't get a "public Health Official" to order him into quarantine so he isn't currently eligible. Our HR/Legal team is working it.

[Ajax]

Ugh, what a mess.

[LarryHoward]

I'm finding telecommuting busier than actually going to the office with fully 1/2 my time trying to keep things operating, compliant and dealing with pop up issues (customers reporting they have tested positive, etc. The base is max teleworking but running programs full time so touch labor contractors are still essential and expected to work. That may be changing as one of the test teams had a confirmed positive earlier this week and a presumptive positive announced this morning. For at least the rest of the week, their hangar/lab is shut down. Another customer has closed down their fully SCIFed office with 2 presumptive positives and are teleworking as they can but that's not much.

Still seeing contract actions happening but they have moved from glacially slow to Tectonic Plate slow in processing. We are starting to feel the cash shortfall as a company as WIP goes up and Overhead (additional cleaning services) and teleworking inefficiencies slow the pace of business and our DSO climbs as customers are slower to pay bills. Even the government invoices are slowing due to teleworking slowing approvals.

[Chris Chesley]

I'm finding telecommuting busier than actually going to the office with fully 1/2 my time trying to keep things operating, compliant and dealing with pop up issues (customers reporting they have tested positive, etc. The base is max teleworking but running programs full time so touch labor contractors are still essential and expected to work. That may be changing as one of the test teams had a confirmed positive earlier this week and a presumptive positive announced this morning. For at least the rest of the week, their hangar/lab is shut down. Another customer has closed down their fully SCIFed office with 2 presumptive positives and are teleworking as they can but that's not much.

Still seeing contract actions happening but they have moved from glacially slow to Tectonic Plate slow in processing. We are starting to feel the cash shortfall as a company as WIP goes up and Overhead (additional cleaning services) and teleworking inefficiencies slow the pace of business and our DSO climbs as customers are slower to pay bills. Even the government invoices are slowing due to teleworking slowing approvals.

Ah, yes, Cash Flow. THAT is the challenge, we're good if folks pay their bill, but with $70k about to go past due, payroll becomes a challenge... (in this, I'm certain, we are not alone....)

On another note, we expect to sign papers on the sale of our house and purchase of a new one tomorrow. Moving while under lockdown...= neat trick.

[Chris Chesley]

More virus related...

There may be a high 'silent attack' rate. i.e. infected but never show symptoms. If so, that's actually good news.

https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

[Panope]

Seems a very high negative test rate. Are they requiring clear symptoms to order testing or is it generally available. One of my managers’ daughters lives in NYC and is reporting they are not being tested unless they need to be hospitalized. Just being told to self isolate and come in if they have significant breathing issues.

I don't know what today's criteria is for testing, but when my test was administered 8 days ago (the first day the test clinic opened), my mild fever, aches, and sore throat was "just what we want to see".

2 days ago the test center confirmed to me that they ARE prioritising the test specimens ie - sicker people's test kits are being processed before the not as sick people. This explains why my results are so greatly delayed.

If the above is true, it seems to be good news as only 9 positives out of 220 truly sick people does seem like a low infection rate.

[kimbottles]

More virus related...

There may be a high 'silent attack' rate. i.e. infected but never show symptoms. If so, that's actually good news.

https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

That was MOST informative, Thank you Chris!!

[Benno von Humpback]

Seems a very high negative test rate. Are they requiring clear symptoms to order testing or is it generally available. One of my managers’ daughters lives in NYC and is reporting they are not being tested unless they need to be hospitalized. Just being told to self isolate and come in if they have significant breathing issues.

Don't know about the negative rate, except that lots of people get sick this time of year. PCR is very sensitive, but does not measure exposure, only the presence of viral genome in the sample, i.e., active infection.

As I understand it, availability is improving, but more importantly, it's logistically difficult and consumes PPE. It would be useful for contact tracing, but we are past any concept of containment and are deep into management of the pandemic. Again as I understand it, the only official indication for testing now is if it would alter management or spare resources. That applies essentially to hospitalized patients.

[Steele]

Our clinic numbers;
700 tested
600 neg
50 positive
30 pend

The problem has been clinicaly figuring out who has covid 19 in the setting of all the influenza and common colds we are seeing. Especially early in the illness there remains no defining characteristics. Like almost all clinics in the United States we are trying to limit testing to those who are experiencing respiratory symptoms AND are at high risk or who are in critical roles (health care, emergnecy response etc). Despite setting up entire clinics to just evaluate and test respiratory cases we are not yet able to test possible exposed individuals without symptoms or people with mild symptoms (who are urged not to come in at all). In an ideal world we would test anybody at risk or who has even mild symtpoms. This would allow islolation of all cases to stop the spread, and allow negative patients to work etc. Unfortunately we do not have enough testing supplies and protective equipment to do so.

Our local hospitals are keeping up so far, but that may change in 7-10 days. The issue now is not beds or staff, but protective equipment.

This may get easier as spring gets going and the incidence of seasonal flu and colds reduce. A large burden of respiratory illness is related to kids in schools, now that they have been closed for a few weeks that may help as well. An overall drop off in all respiratory viruses combined with increase supplies may allow better case finding as long as we are not overwhelmed by the rapid increase in covid cases themselves.

This is a lesson for communities that have not yet fully shut down despite even a small number of cases. Doing so would allow tracking of contacts, case finding, and stricter isolation when supplies are not critical. It would also allow shifting of resources to hard hit areas. Not to be too politcal, but that would requires a unified cohesive response on a federal level, something we are not yet seeing.

[Ajax]

I was really surprised at how long it took Virginia to shut schools down. The governor is a pediatrician and a doctor, for cryin' out loud and our governor beat him to the punch by over a week.

[cap10ed]

Ed. Thanks for the copy of the TC policy. Well written and thoughtful.

I’ve put my entire office on telework. About 40% are techs work in a project facility on the local base without the ability to telework. I expect the base to shut down within the next week and have arranged for them to be covered with training, document review, etc for a couple of weeks and IT is setting up new laptops for them to use from home. I expect it will go longer than 2 weeks and am searching for more things they can do to stay on the clock. I ran a leave report and several have less than 8 hours banked (including SL as we are one of the few Small Businesses in MD that provides SL. We have instituted new “charge numbers” for CV related time off in preparation for the Federal Aid we are told will be available. Hopefully it wil, get settled soon.

Goal is to get our folks through this without illness or permanent financial stress.

My retirement investments are another story.

Larry our latest new guide lines now remove any training seminars or meetings including Bridge Simulation. The office is trying to grasp how to make pilotage work now. When getting off a ship in the USA are we now back to another 14 quarantine? That one would wipe out our ability to service ships. To say the least , we are living in interesting times. Stay well Scantlers.

[Slick470]

I was really surprised at how long it took Virginia to shut schools down. The governor is a pediatrician and a doctor, for cryin' out loud and our governor beat him to the punch by over a week.

When did Maryland shut down schools? Ours in FFX and surrounding counties have been effectively closed since the 13th although the state just recently cancelled schools for the remainder of the semester. Last I saw MD was closed until at least April 24th or so but I don't know when they closed them initially. It seems MD, VA, DC are all tracking somewhat similar paths with minor differences on dates and what constitutes "essential"

[BeauV]

The Ruby Princess debacle...

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-25/ ... 0/12086196

Good lord! That's a screw up of American proportions.

(I did love the new phrase I got to learn: ...tipped a bucket on ___..." I'm going to use that one. I assume they are referring to what we'd call a bedpan?"

[Olaf Hart]

The Ruby Princess debacle...

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-25/ ... 0/12086196

Good lord! That's a screw up of American proportions.

(I did love the new phrase I got to learn: ...tipped a bucket on ___..." I'm going to use that one. I assume they are referring to what we'd call a bedpan?"

The story is developing, apparently the captain told border force no one onboard was sick, so the state health department classified it as low risk.

20% of the people onboard were from the US, and promptly flew home...

In fact, there were over a dozen “influenza” cases onboard, and three of the influenza swabs were positive for coronavirus.

And there was an ambulance waiting at the dock for an old woman who later died from a Coronavirus.

The Tasmanian numbers have more than doubled as passengers from the boat make their way home.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation ... 5fe0ee9bfc

[Olaf Hart]

I am not sure anyone knows what was in the bucket Beau, but at the time the phrase was commonly used a lot of inner urban houses were unsewered, and had “ thunderboxes” in outhouses in the backyard which were regularly collected and emptied...

[Ken Heaton (Salazar)]

The Ruby Princess debacle...

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-25/ ... 0/12086196

Good lord! That's a screw up of American proportions.

(I did love the new phrase I got to learn: ...tipped a bucket on ___..." I'm going to use that one. I assume they are referring to what we'd call a bedpan?"

I found the expression in a dictionary of slang. There is some other pretty funny stuff in there, read on if you 'd like a laugh (assuming you still find fart jokes funny): https://books.google.ca/books?id=bbcBCg ... ia&f=false

[SemiSalt]

I got thinking this morning about the response to the virus in the US, and the responses of states that have been effected late and only a little. There was still time for these states to do a South Korea-like program of testing and contact follow up, but no one is even talking about it.

Even now, here in Connecticut, it could be done in counties that have 20 new cases a day or fewer. Maybe the test kits aren't available.

[IrieMon]

In case anyone notices this blurb from UK.Gov on the "hoax" websites:

----------------------------------------------------------------

Status of COVID-19
As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases ( HCID ) in the UK.

The 4 nations public health  HCID  group made an interim recommendation in January 2020 to classify COVID-19 as an  HCID . This was based on consideration of the UK  HCID  criteria about the virus and the disease with information available during the early stages of the outbreak. Now that more is known about COVID-19, the public health bodies in the UK have reviewed the most up to date information about COVID-19 against the UK  HCID  criteria. They have determined that several features have now changed; in particular, more information is available about mortality rates (low overall), and there is now greater clinical awareness and a specific and sensitive laboratory test, the availability of which continues to increase.
The Advisory Committee on Dangerous Pathogens (ACDP) is also of the opinion that COVID-19 should no longer be classified as an  HCID.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-conseq ... f-covid-19
-------------------------------------------------------------------


After conferring with a virologist at the Univ of Kent, this status change affects how researchers and health care workers can treat COVID-19 samples for testing.  With the new change it will allow more researchers to study the virus and more places to test the virus (more eyes on the problem). Unfortunately the verbiage may seem an "all clear" to the unwashed masses....

[Panope]

Our town added one new case today (total 9) out of 60 new test results (the most test results returned so far).

9 positive
220 negative
176 pending
405 tested

No deaths.

Most recent totals:

11 positive
261 negative
181 pending
453 tested

[Ajax]

Just had a lengthy text with my office mate.

Management and co-workers are not taking this seriously at all. They're guilting people into working. Meanwhile, our government customer is totally shut down. Everyone in my office is sitting around with thumbs in asses.

Unbelievable.

[Jamie]

And that is why America numbah one - we lead the world...in COVID19 cases.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Of course China is lying through their teeth about the cases and deaths...but still....we're no 1 on the official record.

[Benno von Humpback]

Just had a lengthy text with my office mate.

Management and co-workers are not taking this seriously at all. They're guilting people into working. Meanwhile, our government customer is totally shut down. Everyone in my office is sitting around with thumbs in asses.

Unbelievable.

Unbelievable. How many people to a room?

[Tigger]

New Cases Today: 66 (The good news, for now, is that the number of new cases per day is not doubling every three days, it's staying about the same.)
Total Cases: 725
Deaths: 14
Recovered: 186
In Hospital: 66
In ICU: 26

Dr. Bonnie Henry, who has been thrust into the limelight, has proved to be a national treasure. Today's reminder was that the public health orders are 'our firewall'. She'll never have to buy a drink ever again.

[Ajax]

Just had a lengthy text with my office mate.

Management and co-workers are not taking this seriously at all. They're guilting people into working. Meanwhile, our government customer is totally shut down. Everyone in my office is sitting around with thumbs in asses.

Unbelievable.

Unbelievable. How many people to a room?

Two, typically. Some have their own office. I have about 6 feet from my office mate. I reported to work today. I just finished sanitizing my entire work area.

[LarryHoward]

Just had a lengthy text with my office mate.

Management and co-workers are not taking this seriously at all. They're guilting people into working. Meanwhile, our government customer is totally shut down. Everyone in my office is sitting around with thumbs in asses.

Unbelievable.

Unbelievable. How many people to a room?

Two, typically. Some have their own office. I have about 6 feet from my office mate. I reported to work today. I just finished sanitizing my entire work area.

Unfortunately, that’s the nature of defense contract support. Because it’s “cost plus”, the customer has a tendency to “reverse auction” the job and most of the contracts limit fee on labor to no more than 8% and no fee on any “other direct costs.” Basically, what they are selling is your billed hours. With average indirects and well managed, the business runs about 5% PBIT. The service sectors of large companies are notorious for unforgiving monthly metrics. Since the business is “essential”, the board room will expect business (and revenue) as usual.

For us, 2 divisions are full telework, One is about 50% and the G&A staff is about 50%. Everybody “in the office” is on Long Island and every few days we have another person off for testing. So far, 1 positive and several are off as a family member has symptoms. As a small business, we have about 4 weeks of salary in the bank and are exploring loans if we have to close the doors. SBA is crushed so the “emergency loans” are hard to execute in any “hot spot.”

We see it here at Pax. Max telework but pretty much everybody is working because “essential”. Those that are needed onsite are expected to show up even though I’m aware of 4 buildings that have been closed for positive or presumptively positive test results. Base is treating each one as pretty much unrelated and using a “whack-a-mole” approach. Transparency is pretty much non existent I’m shutting down my on base operations today and putting my techs into training/telework status for the next 2 weeks as my critical customer had a positive and now 3 additional awaiting test results. As far as we can tell, my folks were not exposed. We have just started up the steep slope in the county and I expect MD will be adding a lot of cases daily in the next week. I don’t think COVID-19 gives you a pass because you have an “essential” job.

[Jamie]

I'm really sorry to hear that. It's very unfair.