Conoravirus ...

[Tim Ford]

http://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

For the nation, this looks terrible. For Maryland...wow. I hope we are so fortunate.

Hospital Resources and Deaths per Day peak around April 15th? Truth surely stranger than fiction....

[SemiSalt]

The question arose "Do we have nonfat dry milk in the house?" Answer: yes. Second question was "How old is it?" The box is neatly marked 11/08.

[BeauV]

On the lighter side: the French chick informed me today that we had 10 liters of olive oil and 10 liters of the local bulk red wine. She's worried we don't have enough olive oil.

Depends on what you use it for, I guess.

Eric - I am so happy to have your sense of humor back on this bulletin board!! I've missed it.!!

[Anomaly]

On the lighter side: the French chick informed me today that we had 10 liters of olive oil and 10 liters of the local bulk red wine. She's worried we don't have enough olive oil.

Depends on what you use it for, I guess.

Please. This is Italy. NO ONE would think of using precious olive oil for THAT. Olive oil is to be poured on top of EVERYthing before eating (especially pasta). As Bertolucci and Brando showed, that is what butter is for.

Just checked, we have plenty of butter.

[Anomaly]

Apparently, lockdown status, or something close, has arrived in Alaska and my brother in Kodiak has a bit of spare time on his hands. Diving deep on the interweb, he found this gem. Bloody Marys anyone? (I have sent the French chick on a mission to find a nail). Apologies if you can't access this cause of the Facebook link but that's how it was sent to me:

https://facebook.com/charlieberensTV/vi ... 317060807/

[Slick470]

Apparently, lockdown status, or something close, has arrived in Alaska and my brother in Kodiak has a bit of spare time on his hands. Diving deep on the interweb, he found this gem. Bloody Marys anyone? (I have sent the French chick on a mission to find a nail). Apologies if you can't access this cause of the Facebook link but that's how it was sent to me:

https://facebook.com/charlieberensTV/vi ... 317060807/

That was fun and caught myself laughing out loud a few times. Thanks.

[kimbottles]

Apparently, lockdown status, or something close, has arrived in Alaska and my brother in Kodiak has a bit of spare time on his hands. Diving deep on the interweb, he found this gem. Bloody Marys anyone? (I have sent the French chick on a mission to find a nail). Apologies if you can't access this cause of the Facebook link but that's how it was sent to me:

https://facebook.com/charlieberensTV/vi ... 317060807/

That there is Internet Gold. Susan was LHAO....

[LarryHoward]

Made a grocery store and booze run today. Crowds are way down, stores are enforcing separation at places like the deli counter and check out lines with “a series of X’s taped on the floor 6 feet apart. Meat back in stock and limits on meat, paper towels, wipes and TP to prevent hoarding. Really only hand sanitizer not available.

As a bonus, my “everyday” scotch was on sale so I bought 2!

[SemiSalt]

If you take the data count of US covid-19 deaths from here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

2020-03-29_1634.png

and plot find the daily increase over the last two weeks by taking each day's observation and subtracting the previous day's observation, you get this:

2020-03-29_1637.png

which looks aproximately level over the last week. (The calculus compliant will recongnize this the derivative of the above, more or less.) If the US were still on the famed exponential curve, this would be rising sharply. So maybe the isolation regime is having some effect.

Just by the way, I think the erratic ups and downs may be caused by glitches in reporting on weekends.

[BeauV]

Semi,

I think this line represents what you're saying. Am I right? This is clearly not an exponential curve. But it probably reflects the linear roll-out of test kits, and not the potentially exponential growth of the underlying disease.

[Ken Heaton (Salazar)]

This site allows you to view the graph (bottom right) as a Logarithm if that helps you visualise the progression.

It will come up Canada first but you can change it to 'World' and then pick your country. It is in french but Google Translate will fix that for you if that's a problem.

https://ici.radio-canada.ca/info/2020/c ... opagation/

[SemiSalt]

Semi,

I think this line represents what you're saying. Am I right? This is clearly not an exponential curve. But it probably reflects the linear roll-out of test kits, and not the potentially exponential growth of the underlying disease.

You are certainly correct to doubt the data. I dont hear so much about a lack of test kits. We did hear that in NYC, NJ, and maybe other areas, doctors were told not to bother testing new cases that were mild enough for the patient to recover at home. I dont know if these cases are even reported, and most amateur observers are skeptical enough to assume not.

[kdh]

If you take the data count of US covid-19 deaths from here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

2020-03-29_1634.png

and plot find the daily increase over the last two weeks by taking each day's observation and subtracting the previous day's observation, you get this:

2020-03-29_1637.png

which looks aproximately level over the last week. (The calculus compliant will recongnize this the derivative of the above, more or less.) If the US were still on the famed exponential curve, this would be rising sharply. So maybe the isolation regime is having some effect.

Just by the way, I think the erratic ups and downs may be caused by glitches in reporting on weekends.

As you know, Semi, we can't get rid of an exponential by differentiating it, as the derivative is itself an exponential.

[Slick470]

Apparently, lockdown status, or something close, has arrived in Alaska and my brother in Kodiak has a bit of spare time on his hands. Diving deep on the interweb, he found this gem. Bloody Marys anyone? (I have sent the French chick on a mission to find a nail). Apologies if you can't access this cause of the Facebook link but that's how it was sent to me:

https://facebook.com/charlieberensTV/vi ... 317060807/

That there is Internet Gold. Susan was LHAO....

There's more:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sPGrvymxFnk

and for those without facebook, here's the first one that Anomaly posted: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UaqlE9Pyy_Q

[Tigger]

Pure gold! Thanks.

[Benno von Humpback]

Masks, even crude ones, starting to make sense.

https://medium.com/@Cancerwarrior/covid ... 0e08ceee71

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qzARpgx ... ture=share

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_OSz5Gr ... e=youtu.be

[Ajax]

It seems to me that the "peak" keeps shifting further to the right. My totally uninformed opinion as to the reason for this is pretty simple- People aren't sufficiently isolating.
Governments keep telling us to just hang on a little longer, but I think this isn't going to end until everyone is either infected and recovered or lying in a morgue drawer. That's all 330 million of us.

When the reports were- "Mortality mainly involves older people with underlying conditions" I thought ok, I'll do my part to keep society turning.
When reports changed to younger people, many with no underlying conditions dying or experiencing extreme difficulties, that changed everything. I can't even figure out what my risk category is anymore.

[Benno von Humpback]

It seems to me that the "peak" keeps shifting further to the right. My totally uninformed opinion as to the reason for this is pretty simple- People aren't sufficiently isolating.
Governments keep telling us to just hang on a little longer, but I think this isn't going to end until everyone is either infected and recovered or lying in a morgue drawer. That's all 330 million of us.

When the reports were- "Mortality mainly involves older people with underlying conditions" I thought ok, I'll do my part to keep society turning.
When reports changed to younger people, many with no underlying conditions dying or experiencing extreme difficulties, that changed everything. I can't even figure out what my risk category is anymore.

Models are only as good as their input and very often not even that good. I think it’s hard to infer anything about the effectiveness of isolation from those outputs at this point.

As for who’s dying and going on vent support, those apparent shifts are a matter of public perception and journalism. The old and sick are still at greatest risk.

[Chris Chesley]

Ajax, I think that the whole intent of 'flattening the curve' was to do just what you're noticing. Flattening the curve means both reducing the peak AND pushing the peak further into the future. The dilemma still remains twofold. 1) A longer curve means a longer period of time under restrictions 2) A longer curve means more economic damage for a perceived reduction in stress to the healthcare system

As for risk, it's there for everyone. Some of us more than others. I did, however, remove all NSAIDs such as Ibuprofen, Aleve, etc from household access. Apparently, the use of said anti-inflammatories can worsen the effects of the virus.

[Benno von Humpback]

https://www.fda.gov/drugs/drug-safety-a ... s-covid-19

[kdh]

When it comes to the future, models are all we have. Some are better than others, and only as good as the assumptions. In this case, due to the exponential nature of disease transmission, models are sensitive to small changes in the assumptions.

We're kind of stuck with the basic idea that the less exposure we have to sick people the less likely we are to get sick and make others sick.

Humans have an awful behavioral bias where we evaluate the likelihood of something based on the ease with which we can imagine it happening and the amount of news we get about it, rather than using what we'd infer by simply counting to get its prevalence. People don't grok basic probability. This is unfortunate, as I think evaluating life's risks is really important and leads to a happier life.

As Eric writes, that young people have gotten sick and written about in the news does not mean that the old and infirm aren't much more vulnerable. There are exceptions to everything. Hell might freeze over, to use the parlance.

[Ajax]

https://www.fda.gov/drugs/drug-safety-and-availability/fda-advises-patients-use-non-steroidal-anti-inflammatory-drugs-nsaids-covid-19

The article says "such as Ibuprofin" but doesn't mention acetaminaphen. Is Tylenol safe or should I be limiting to plain old aspirin?

Chris, pushing off the peak would be great if the peak was going to be lower and not overwhelm the health system. What I'm reading seems to indicate that the opposite is occurring- the peak is later and higher.
Yes, I get that with models, garbage in=garbage out. I'm not blaming the medical community for the uncertainty in their models, I'm blaming people for continuing to hold parties and ignoring physical distancing. It only takes a few people to totally ruin it. Also, the impression I'm getting is that "stealth spread" from asymptomatic people is widespread, further leading to overconfidence and a willingness to violate the new personal bubble.

On a different note, we went to the Annapolis farmer's market down near the MVA office. This seems like a good format for obtaining food while reducing the risk of contamination. The market is open-air, people are good about maintaining their spacing. The vendors have signs up saying "if you touch it, please buy it" or simply prohibiting customers from rifling through products altogether, with a point-and-choose format. When paying, they hold out a Square, you slip your card in without touching them or the Square itself. The vendors are wearing gloves and/or masks.

No enclosed spaces, almost nothing to touch, use your own bag. We sanitized when we got back in the car. We washed or sanitized our stuff when we got home and tossed the cloth grocery bags in the laundry. We washed up again after putting all the food away. I sanitized the car, wiping down door handles, armrests, and controls.

$5 for a friggin' gallon of milk though... Well, 1/2 gallon was chocolate.

[Benno von Humpback]

https://www.fda.gov/drugs/drug-safety-and-availability/fda-advises-patients-use-non-steroidal-anti-inflammatory-drugs-nsaids-covid-19

The article says "such as Ibuprofin" but doesn't mention acetaminaphen. Is Tylenol safe or should I be limiting to plain old aspirin?

Acetaminophen is not an NSAI; aspirin is.

[Ajax]

https://www.fda.gov/drugs/drug-safety-and-availability/fda-advises-patients-use-non-steroidal-anti-inflammatory-drugs-nsaids-covid-19

The article says "such as Ibuprofin" but doesn't mention acetaminaphen. Is Tylenol safe or should I be limiting to plain old aspirin?

Acetaminophen is not an NSAI; aspirin is.

I'm glad I ask these questions. What about Aleve, which is sodium naproxen (I think?)

[Slick470]

....pushing off the peak would be great if the peak was going to be lower and not overwhelm the health system. What I'm reading seems to indicate that the opposite is occurring- the peak is later and higher.

I think even if the later peak is higher, the later part still buys time to prepare, more supplies, more equipment, more and better tests.

[Benno von Humpback]

https://www.fda.gov/drugs/drug-safety-and-availability/fda-advises-patients-use-non-steroidal-anti-inflammatory-drugs-nsaids-covid-19

The article says "such as Ibuprofin" but doesn't mention acetaminaphen. Is Tylenol safe or should I be limiting to plain old aspirin?

Acetaminophen is not an NSAI; aspirin is.

I'm glad I ask these questions. What about Aleve, which is sodium naproxen (I think?)

NSAID

[TheOffice]

Hopkins is expecting a spike in cases next week.

They hope to have rapid tests for ALL incoming patients. Nurses have been told to wear face masks and N95s for all patients. Sue's facemask is a homemade piece of Lexan with foam for her forehead and an elastic strap stapled on. Sill one N95 per 12 hour shift.

And now, a new stay at home order from Hogan

[Benno von Humpback]

Hopkins is expecting a spike in cases next week.

They hope to have rapid tests for ALL incoming patients. Nurses have been told to wear face masks and N95s for all patients. Sue's facemask is a homemade piece of Lexan with foam for her forehead and an elastic strap stapled on. Sill one N95 per 12 hour shift.

Yikes. We are down to one N95 per shift too, but obviously won't see what a real hospital sees.

[Ajax]

....pushing off the peak would be great if the peak was going to be lower and not overwhelm the health system. What I'm reading seems to indicate that the opposite is occurring- the peak is later and higher.

I think even if the later peak is higher, the later part still buys time to prepare, more supplies, more equipment, more and better tests.

Considering that we dropped the ball in the "testing" category, I suppose that's a good thing.

[Ken Heaton (Salazar)]

Hopkins is expecting a spike in cases next week.

Nurses have been told to wear face masks and N95s for all patients. Sue's facemask is a homemade piece of Lexan with foam for her forehead and an elastic strap stapled on.

ETC is a US based Theatre Lighting Equipment company. They decided to go into the Medical Face Shield business last week and are supplying them at cost. ETC’s Face Shields provide front and side face protection from flying respiratory droplets that can transmit infectious diseases such as COVID-19. More info at the link below:

https://www.etcconnect.com/faceshields/ ... xi3FjZDLrA