Conoravirus ...

[H B]

And now, a new stay at home order from Hogan

I wonder if the DNR will ticket us for going out on the boat? The violation is only a misdemeanor, might be worth it!

[Ajax]

And now, a new stay at home order from Hogan

I wonder if the DNR will ticket us for going out on the boat? The violation is only a misdemeanor, might be worth it!

We addressed this in the "What are the odds?" thread over in the main discussion area. As long as your boat isn't full of people, you're probably safe.

[Benno von Humpback]

And now, a new stay at home order from Hogan

I wonder if the DNR will ticket us for going out on the boat? The violation is only a misdemeanor, might be worth it!

We addressed this in the "What are the odds?" thread over in the main discussion area. As long as your boat isn't full of people, you're probably safe.

A person who knowingly and willfully violates this Order is guilty of a misdemeanor and on conviction is subject to imprisonment not exceeding one year or a fine not exceeding $5,000 or both.

No thank you and all it takes is one asshole cop to really ruin your day.

[Panope]

For the covid19 test swab that was collected on March 17, my results are NEGATIVE.

Steve

[Slick470]

Thanks for letting us know Steve. I'm sure it's a relief, but maybe also just a bit disappointing that you don't now just maybe have some immunity.

[LarryHoward]

For the covid19 test swab that was collected on March 17, my results are NEGATIVE.

Steve

Excellent news, Steve.

[blackjenner]

For the covid19 test swab that was collected on March 17, my results are NEGATIVE.

Steve

Good news.

[Jamie]

For the covid19 test swab that was collected on March 17, my results are NEGATIVE.

Steve

[kimbottles]

For the covid19 test swab that was collected on March 17, my results are NEGATIVE.

Steve

Whew!

[Tigger]

A little musical interlude for you during these uncertain times: Elizabeth playing "Musical Priest".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_cont ... e=emb_logo

[Tim Ford]

Interesting that the WHO is proposing using a granny knot to tether their campaign strategies....

WHOgoesGranny.png

[kdh]

Interesting that the WHO is proposing using a granny knot to tether their campaign strategies....

WHOgoesGranny.png

Hilarious!

[Panope]

Thanks for letting us know Steve. I'm sure it's a relief, but maybe also just a bit disappointing that you don't now just maybe have some immunity.

Yes, part of me was hoping for a red cape and an "S" on my chest, but the negative result is certainly better for the community.

[Steele]

This comes from the University of Washington but is apparently very similar to projections from other US sources, https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections. Keep in mind these projections assume ongoing measures to slow the virus transmission. Let's hope we are on the low side of the confidence interval. You can check state by state by selecting united states in the green bar and scrolling down.

[Benno von Humpback]

I am not always that fond of my somewhat fussy neighbors, but today on the listserv there was a very long series of posts from people who were committed to paying their housekeepers, landscapers, and nannies to stay home for the duration. We are going to need a lot of that spirit going forward.

[JoeP]

Dave, my barber, is a great guy. He set up a Go Fund Me page to raise $3,000 so he could survive being closdd during the lockdown. He said that out of a $25.00 donation $5.00 would go for the Go Fund Me tip and the remaining $20.00 would get you a haircut. $20.00 is his normal fee. I think it is great that he didn't want to make any money from the situation. He just made his goal today. Unfortunately he may have to do it again due to the announced extended duration of the lock down.

In other news UK Sail makers Seattle have started producing protective gear: https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1508301299337487&id=722441867923438

[Tigger]

Not that there is anything funny about the virus, but ... here's a great story about an Australian astrophysicist whose experimental device intended to keep people from touching their face didn't quite function as planned.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-n ... rus-device

[BeauV]

This comes from the University of Washington but is apparently very similar to projections from other US sources, https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections. Keep in mind these projections assume ongoing measures to slow the virus transmission. Let's hope we are on the low side of the confidence interval. You can check state by state by selecting united states in the green bar and scrolling down.

I just poured through this site. Thanks, Steele, you're the fifth person I respect in the last 12 hours to point me at this site.

For those who haven't yet gone there, it's worth a look. With my oldest son living in Washington DC, I checked out Virginia and Maryland for estimates of his situation. Maryland isn't looking very good. Y'all in that state need to be really really careful. It doesn't look like there will be any beds.

This organization is funded heavily by the Gates Foundation for all sorts of things. Bill Gates has been preaching that we're going to have a Pandemic for over 20 years, to everyone who'll listen. He does a good job on a TED talk from about 2018. I'm sure Google will turn it up.

[BeauV]

For the covid19 test swab that was collected on March 17, my results are NEGATIVE.

Steve

Steve - this is GREAT NEWS! I am relieved!

[Ajax]

This comes from the University of Washington but is apparently very similar to projections from other US sources, https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections. Keep in mind these projections assume ongoing measures to slow the virus transmission. Let's hope we are on the low side of the confidence interval. You can check state by state by selecting united states in the green bar and scrolling down.

I just poured through this site. Thanks, Steele, you're the fifth person I respect in the last 12 hours to point me at this site.

For those who haven't yet gone there, it's worth a look. With my oldest son living in Washington DC, I checked out Virginia and Maryland for estimates of his situation. Maryland isn't looking very good. Y'all in that state need to be really really careful. It doesn't look like there will be any beds.

This organization is funded heavily by the Gates Foundation for all sorts of things. Bill Gates has been preaching that we're going to have a Pandemic for over 20 years, to everyone who'll listen. He does a good job on a TED talk from about 2018. I'm sure Google will turn it up.

Remember what we said about models and their accuracy?

The number of beds in the models does not reflect what our governor is telling us about the number of beds we will generate by re-opening shuttered hospitals and establishing treatment centers in convention centers. That website is about 2,000 beds short. Ventilators may be a different story.

[LarryHoward]

This comes from the University of Washington but is apparently very similar to projections from other US sources, https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections. Keep in mind these projections assume ongoing measures to slow the virus transmission. Let's hope we are on the low side of the confidence interval. You can check state by state by selecting united states in the green bar and scrolling down.

I just poured through this site. Thanks, Steele, you're the fifth person I respect in the last 12 hours to point me at this site.

For those who haven't yet gone there, it's worth a look. With my oldest son living in Washington DC, I checked out Virginia and Maryland for estimates of his situation. Maryland isn't looking very good. Y'all in that state need to be really really careful. It doesn't look like there will be any beds.

This organization is funded heavily by the Gates Foundation for all sorts of things. Bill Gates has been preaching that we're going to have a Pandemic for over 20 years, to everyone who'll listen. He does a good job on a TED talk from about 2018. I'm sure Google will turn it up.

Remember what we said about models and their accuracy?

The number of beds in the models does not reflect what our governor is telling us about the number of beds we will generate by re-opening shuttered hospitals and establishing treatment centers in convention centers. That website is about 2,000 beds short. Ventilators may be a different story.

The model is updated daily and seems to be sensitive to daily infection death rate, as it probably should although sensitivity to one or two data points early in the infection can skew the peaks. The trend in Md isn’t good. Last couple of days has shown a jump in infections and deaths from somewhat below average to more average. One reaction is the “stay at home” order last night. The shift in the data has moved the most likely projection from plenty of beds to not enough overnight. Like many states, MD is taking action to add additional beds so “available” numbers should be climbing.

[SemiSalt]

It's interesting to see the projections don't show much of a moderation in growth rate until just before the peak. It's more likely that they have the shape right than the timing. So it's going to be hard to believe the end is near until just before the turnaround.

[Ajax]

That nursing home that just got hammered will really skew our numbers. They still do not understand how it happened, claiming that visits were stopped and that the staff was following all CDC guidlines.

Semi, as a mathematician your input is really interesting and appreciated.

When this all started, I was nearly maxed out on PTO. I took 2 weeks because we were told- "The peak is in 2 weeks. Go home."
Now, I'm trying to time my exit from work with the amount of PTO that I have in order to weather this. I mean, I can exhaust my PTO and still pay all my bills for some months but I'd like to not be a pauper once all this has passed.

[kdh]

This is starting to look encouraging. New cases in the US from here.

Screen Shot 2020-03-31 at 8.26.41 AM.png

[Ajax]

Yep. Another few days should tell if it's a trend.

[Steele]

Those of you with math and statistics backgrounds probably have seen the Kinsa thermometer data but if not take a look at the healthweather.us site. It is a unique way to get a feel for what’s happening using an incomplete but new dataset.

[Slick470]

Those of you with math and statistics backgrounds probably have seen the Kinsa thermometer data but if not take a look at the healthweather.us site. It is a unique way to get a feel for what’s happening using an incomplete but new dataset.

What I don't see is any idea of how many of these Kinsa thermometers are actually being used in the various areas they are tracking. Is there enough of density that their data set is actually useful?

[Steele]

There are lots of issues with the Kinsa data. How many thermometers are there, how often are they used etc. I suspect owners of these devices are younger, more affluent and more likely to have kids, and of course they only measure fever, not type of illness. Having said that, data is good if understood. We hopefully will soon have rapid testing or even home test kits and combining that on a community level with fever, oxygen saturation levels and other home collected data could help.

[SemiSalt]

I went to the Kinsa site to see what their marketing looked like, and saw no mention of connectivity. Maybe I missed it.

In the past 30 years or so, the internet has provided numerous examples of how enormous datasets can obviate traditional notions of statistics. I think this is one. I think their sample is about 200,000. If there are 1000 reporting from your state, you have enough to detect a signal.

On the other hand, they can detect a change, but they don't know the cause. Florida was very hot, but was it Carona or some other malady.

Another interesting map based on a huge, internet-enabled datasets identified the phones that were on beaches during spring break, and mapped their locations a week or two later illustrating how spring break could, and maybe did, spread contagion across the land.

[Ajax]

The cell phone data is interesting, yet creepy. I know it's anonymous data, but still...