Conoravirus ...

[SemiSalt]

Anyone who wants to rush the testing of a new vaccine should go to the Wikipedia article on the 2009 swine flu vaccine and read the Adverse Effects section.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_swin ... ic_vaccine

[Ajax]

Wife just applied for a loan to try and save her practice. The process was difficult. We’ll see if it comes through.

Oh wow, I didn't know she owned the practice. Or am I not understanding something? Is she a partner and all the partners apply for the loan?

[Benno von Humpback]

Wife just applied for a loan to try and save her practice. The process was difficult. We’ll see if it comes through.

Oh wow, I didn't know she owned the practice. Or am I not understanding something? Is she a partner and all the partners apply for the loan?

She has 10 partners and a bunch of employed associates. She does most of the financial management. The loan is for the practice.

[Benno von Humpback]

Anyone who wants to rush the testing of s new vaccine should go to the Wikipedia article on the 2009 swine flu vaccine and read the Adverse Effects section.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_swin ... ic_vaccine

Why worry? Hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin are going to save us.

[Olaf Hart]

This is a little out of date, there are now 41 deaths.

https://apple.news/A_0ItwSNtSLup5uIGw4LzcQ

[LarryHoward]

Wife just applied for a loan to try and save her practice. The process was difficult. We’ll see if it comes through.

We have the package but the Long Island banks are both requiring a lot of data and not officially accepting applications yet. Some unique features of forgiveness limit our options (I guess they should for “free money”) so we are rethinking how we deal with a very significant drop off in the lab portion of your business. That division was the founding part of the business a lot of years ago and currently hemorrhaging cash.

We will survive but it’s going to be a rough couple of quarters. Recovery depends on other businesses recovering. 2021 looks better but that will rely on our customer base being confident enough to invest in new product development. We do a lot of aircraft industry work. Not much of a heartbeat left at the moment.

[LarryHoward]

Anyone who wants to rush the testing of s new vaccine should go to the Wikipedia article on the 2009 swine flu vaccine and read the Adverse Effects section.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_swin ... ic_vaccine

Or these insights. https://www.who.int/bulletin/volumes/87/6/09-040609/en/

[Jamie]

Mice have been successfully cured of cancer and other illnesses many times. Humans a bit less so.

Asset prices are dropping, so if you have some free cash flow, there probably are some fortunes to be made. Chuck some money at the market if you can.

I think one potential outcome of corona is the acceleration of economic trends we've been experiencing in the US - the hollowing out of the middle class and the steady slide into poverty for the working poor. The hardest hit in the turn-down are thinly capitalized small businesses, service industries and the "gig' economy, (which for many have bolstered the shrinking company paycheck). What will be interesting to see is how consumer behavior changes (or not) post corona.

Maybe we'll be spurred to plug some of the gaps in the safety net and try to raise our per capita sort of wellness statistics like mortality for live births or healthy life expectancy adjusted for income. Or, because of the several trillion in additional debt and the poor performance of the government we could be sent the other way and further cut services to reduce debt. A good number of municipalities (particularly in red states) have not seen their finances recover after 2008.

I'm applying for some payroll protection for my company.

[Chris Chesley]

Beau, I agree with what you write to a large degree. I suspect however, that it's not quite as 'simple' here on the ground for the average person.

We're in the process of 'being acquired' and crossing fingers things continue despite the current troubles.
We're also anticipating closing on a house this week but the lender has been, well, it's not quite as certain as it would have been a month ago.

Our personal situation seems to be caught squarely between comfortably weathering a bad year or two and total disaster. Yes, I concur that the longer we hold the line against the spread of the virus, the greater the chance of finding effective treatments. It's not a given that we'll get a vaccine however.

While what you write has merit in a clinical world, the vast majority of small businesses and state/local governments will be vanish or be ruined for a decade. I remain unconvinced that the theory will work in practice.

[Ajax]

Anyone who wants to rush the testing of s new vaccine should go to the Wikipedia article on the 2009 swine flu vaccine and read the Adverse Effects section.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_swin ... ic_vaccine

Why worry? Hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin are going to save us.

Don't be so pessimistic (about people).

I know that Trump and several talking heads keep pushing these as possible treatments without any evidence to back it up but I think in reality, most people by now have tempered their expectations and aren't expecting any miracle cures. Sure, there are a handful of Trump/Fox cultists who are, but I don't think these people make up any significant percentage.

I think what people want to see, is testing. Run tests and clinical trials to see if these treatments can help. If they can, then let's employ them. If they can't, let's look for something else.

The world is a shit sandwich today and it's made you grumpy. I don't like you this way. I miss your sharp, squirrelly sense of humor.

[Benno von Humpback]

Anyone who wants to rush the testing of s new vaccine should go to the Wikipedia article on the 2009 swine flu vaccine and read the Adverse Effects section.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_swin ... ic_vaccine

Why worry? Hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin are going to save us.

Don't be so pessimistic (about people).

I know that Trump and several talking heads keep pushing these as possible treatments without any evidence to back it up but I think in reality, most people by now have tempered their expectations and aren't expecting any miracle cures. Sure, there are a handful of Trump/Fox cultists who are, but I don't think these people make up any significant percentage.

I think what people want to see, is testing. Run tests and clinical trials to see if these treatments can help. If they can, then let's employ them. If they can't, let's look for something else.

The world is a shit sandwich today and it's made you grumpy. I don't like you this way. I miss your sharp, squirrelly sense of humor.

Sorry. You know me too well.

I am actually much more optimistic about the antivirals currently in trials. Problem with hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin is that the scientific rationale is very weak, almost pure handwaving. You could make up a reason just as good to use almost anything. What that does is reduce the baseline or "prior" probability of it actually working to a very low level. If something with a very good reason to work appears to work in a study with a given design quality and statistical power, that's much more positive than if a drug with a weak rationale appears to work at exactly the same level in exactly the same study design. That is, any results with the second drug are way more likely to have occurred at random. Antiviral drugs have a much better rationale.

[Ajax]

Well, I'm glad to hear that you're optimistic about something, because we're going to need something to blunt the next wave of infections this fall. We're still not going to have a vaccine by then.
If antivirals pan out, that would be great.

I know we can't just throw drugs at this thing, using humans as test subjects. The situation isn't that dire, as dire as it is.

[Benno von Humpback]

Well, I'm glad to hear that you're optimistic about something, because we're going to need something to blunt the next wave of infections this fall. We're still not going to have a vaccine by then.
If antivirals pan out, that would be great.

I know we can't just throw drugs at this thing, using humans as test subjects. The situation isn't that dire, as dire as it is.

That's what we're doing with off-label hydroxychloroquine now. The problem isn't the risk, it's the lack of a placebo arm.

[TheOffice]

The SBA loan program is off to a horrible start! The numbers from Italy and Spain are improving. Hopefully idiot governors who are reopening beaches won't kill to many citizens.

A NP on Sue's unit is positive. She has not had direct contact with her, so we are hopeful Sue was not exposed.

Joel

[Benno von Humpback]

The SBA loan program is off to a horrible start! The numbers from Italy and Spain are improving. Hopefully idiot governors who are reopening beaches won't kill to many citizens.

A NP on Sue's unit is positive. She has not had direct contact with her, so we are hopeful Sue was not exposed.

Joel

Hoping for the best, Joel.

Local dumbasses and the supermarket worry me more than beaches, I'm sorry to say.

[Ajax]

I'm sure you guys heard that the seafood market in DC was mobbed by morons, so they shut it down.
One less source of food, and more people not working. Way to go.

We are just flat-out not setting foot in a chain grocery store for a long time. Our diet and eating habits might get a little weird, but it's better than being exposed.

[kdh]

I'm sure you guys heard that the seafood market in DC was mobbed by morons, so they shut it down.
One less source of food, and more people not working. Way to go.

We are just flat-out not setting foot in a chain grocery store for a long time. Our diet and eating habits might get a little weird, but it's better than being exposed.

We've shopped local farms supplemented by Trader Joes for a while. Can't be sure that's any better than the big chains for avoiding the virus, but it seems so, and our eating habits I would not consider weird. Those big grocery stores I find overwhelming with seemingly only 10% of it actual food.

We've also found a great chinese restaurant for takeout. They're great with gluten free assurances for Adele and have super careful anti-virus habits. They still use those old style cardboard chinese food containers so we just bake the whole bag of stuff without even opening it in the oven for a while to disinfect and reheat.

[LarryHoward]

The SBA loan program is off to a horrible start! The numbers from Italy and Spain are improving. Hopefully idiot governors who are reopening beaches won't kill to many citizens.

A NP on Sue's unit is positive. She has not had direct contact with her, so we are hopeful Sue was not exposed.

Joel

Hoping for the best, Joel.

Local dumbasses and the supermarket worry me more than beaches, I'm sorry to say.

It's more the dumb assess than the beaches. Land locked states seem to be keeping parks open.....

[Slick470]

We still have to run to the local large chain supermarkets. Unfortunately with picky eater kids there are a few things they will eat regularly that require those stores. They are mostly handling this new arrangement ok, but we're not willing yet to disrupt how they eat as well. So, that means the occasional trip to stock up on the few things they have to have. We are constantly mentioning to them that some things aren't being restocked at the stores and that it's possible we won't be able to find something they want.

I just had a MS Teams meeting with my department at the office and it seems like it is working pretty well as a solution for us for the time being. As far as workload, we have a few projects that are in the early stages that have hit the pause button, but otherwise, it seems that things are still somewhat chugging along. We've noticed that for clients that we have direct deposit with, those payments are continuing normally, but we've seen a slowdown on paper checks coming in the mail. We can only guess that they are delayed due to accountants working from home vs in the office. We've also applied for the SBA loan and are in discussions with our landlord on their plan for rent. Our health insurance provider has delayed our payments for the next two months, so that's something too. With about 30 employees, all but 6 or so are working from home.

[kimbottles]

Shout out to locally owned Town and Country Market (the Nakata family has been here since before WWII and when they came back from the internment centers they picked back up as one of the prominent families here on Bainbridge Island.)

They are taking this very seriously. They clean each cart immediately after each use, they clean touch screens immediately after each use, their employees all wear masks, they enforce 6 feet separation with tape marks on the floor, they hired a bunch of the recently unemployed and put them on the cleaning squad. They have senior hours and regulate how many customers are in the store at anytime (10 am seems to be their slowest time, so Susan shops then. I stay in the car or at home. Drs orders.)

They are slightly more expensive than the chains, but their produce and meats are superior and their service is out of this world. They remodeled their circa 60’s facility a couple years ago and it is now extremely comfortable, light and modern.

We will never shop anywhere else from now on. The island population has been a buzz about how wonderful the Nakata family is attacking this situation. GOLDEN people.

(And we have T and C cycling jerseys as Mark Nakata rides with us.)

[BeauV]

Apropos of my comment above, companies with large cash hoards (EG: Apple) are using this situation to go on a buying spree. Prices are low and cash is king.

STORY HERE

[Benno von Humpback]

The SBA loan program is off to a horrible start! The numbers from Italy and Spain are improving. Hopefully idiot governors who are reopening beaches won't kill to many citizens.

A NP on Sue's unit is positive. She has not had direct contact with her, so we are hopeful Sue was not exposed.

Joel

Hoping for the best, Joel.

Local dumbasses and the supermarket worry me more than beaches, I'm sorry to say.

It's more the dumb assess than the beaches. Land locked states seem to be keeping parks open.....

Parks around here, e.g., Great Falls, are packed. The bike paths are also looking like places not to be. Speaking of dumbasses I saw kitted-out solo riders huffing up the hills wearing masks yesterday.

[BeauV]

Beau, I agree with what you write to a large degree. I suspect however, that it's not quite as 'simple' here on the ground for the average person.

We're in the process of 'being acquired' and crossing fingers things continue despite the current troubles.
We're also anticipating closing on a house this week but the lender has been, well, it's not quite as certain as it would have been a month ago.

Our personal situation seems to be caught squarely between comfortably weathering a bad year or two and total disaster. Yes, I concur that the longer we hold the line against the spread of the virus, the greater the chance of finding effective treatments. It's not a given that we'll get a vaccine however.

While what you write has merit in a clinical world, the vast majority of small businesses and state/local governments will be vanish or be ruined for a decade. I remain unconvinced that the theory will work in practice.

Chris,

I'm sorry if my long-winded response felt like it was directed at you personally. I shouldn't have written it that way, as I used the occasion to launch a monolog on a number of things which are quite macro in nature and can be entirely irrelevant to individuals. As my old man used to say: "Darwinian evolution is great for improving the species but it's hell on the individuals."

I'm terribly sorry to hear you're caught mid-transaction with a purchase of an asset which was priced before the COVID-19 crisis and yet could be completed after the asset's value has fallen. I'm going to sound harsh here, but have you considered withdrawing from the purchase? On numerous occasions I've done this with business deals. The sort of crash we're experiencing in asset values is certainly not your fault and it could be that walking away to a short term rental (if you've already sold the place you live in) could be a wise move financially. I do understand that it could be a terribly wrenching emotional experience because people buy homes they love, not commodities they don't care about. For me personally, do precisely this sort of walk-away caused my x-wife not to talk to me for a month. It also saved us a great deal of money.

I completely agree: It is NOT a given that there will ever be a vaccine. Indeed, there are very very few vaccines for coronaviruses and rhinoviruses because of their rapid mutation rates. Jamie's comment about many things working in mice but not in people is spot on. However, even a 20% chance (I just made that number up) is better than just letting the disease burn out in my opinion.

I certainly can't predict how many small businesses will fail, in excess of the normal on-going non-pandemic failure rate of small businesses. It will most certainly be more than without a pandemic, in my opinion. But I have no facts. I do know that some businesses are absolutely booming right now, three food delivery services have started up and are advertising for employees aggressively in our area alone. The dry-cleaners just hired 5 drivers to pick up and delivery, as did our two largest liquor stores, and all five marajuana stores. These probably don't make up for the job losses at restaurants and bars. Without a doubt, folks at the bottom of the economic scale are going to be hit very hard. Our society will be even more divided between Haves and Have Nots.

I'm even less qualified to have an opinion on the durability of small towns. If their income is based upon sales tax and tourist revenues, it could be pretty tough. This is where Santa Cruz finds itself. If their income is based upon property taxes, they have a far better chance of surviving. There are simply too many unknowns for me to state an opinion with certainty.

[BeauV]

I'm sure you guys heard that the seafood market in DC was mobbed by morons, so they shut it down.
One less source of food, and more people not working. Way to go.

We are just flat-out not setting foot in a chain grocery store for a long time. Our diet and eating habits might get a little weird, but it's better than being exposed.

We've shopped local farms supplemented by Trader Joes for a while. Can't be sure that's any better than the big chains for avoiding the virus, but it seems so, and our eating habits I would not consider weird. Those big grocery stores I find overwhelming with seemingly only 10% of it actual food.

We've also found a great chinese restaurant for takeout. They're great with gluten free assurances for Adele and have super careful anti-virus habits. They still use those old style cardboard chinese food containers so we just bake the whole bag of stuff without even opening it in the oven for a while to disinfect and reheat.

I really like this last bit!!! We've started cooking the newspaper and some other things in the over to disinfect.

For the doctors on the thread: How long does one have to keep the "thing" in the over at about 180° to kill these little bastards??

[Olaf Hart]

No clear guidelines for dry heat, but your question took me through a wierd rabbit hole of recommendations for re sterilisation of reused n95 masks!

Who would have thought?

https://consteril.com/covid-19-pandemic ... r-viruses/

[Olaf Hart]

More good news

https://apple.news/ALnfyll67Qfu-pGPd4lwJ_A

[Chris Chesley]

Beau,

Believe me, I am aware that housing will be repriced after this. I'm not too worried overall about losing value there as it's actually 30% below original asking price. I'd guess the owner has put in even more than that. My current house has closed already at the 'before COVID' price. Greater concern over having my business sale getting 'repriced' or get cancelled, but we'll see. Renting isn't the end of the world at all but I've got to find it and move before Friday...(my free 2 wk rent back from my buyers expires then) Still awaiting final loan approval.

[BeauV]

Chris, that sounds like a pretty stressful situation. Good luck with it all. Fingers crossed it'll all come right. Beau

[IrieMon]

"For the doctors on the thread: How long does one have to keep the "thing" in the over at about 180° to kill these little bastards??"

I'm not doctor, but fortunately my nephew is a virologist with the Univ of Kent. I asked him this question just last week...

Reply: And for killing the virus, temperatures over 150F for a couple min would do the trick (or a min or so in the microwave).

[Tigger]

Total number in ICU is up, but total in hospital for Covid 19 is down. Fingers crossed that the curve continues to bend and that everyone keeps gettin' er done.

What is interesting is the effect of circumstance. In Ontario and Quebec, spring break was two weeks earlier. Kids went on vacation to places like France, Spain, Italy, and Florida (among others) and then after a week away came back to a week of school. The virus had a chance to infect, incubate, and proliferate. After a week back, they closed the schools.

Meanwhile, here in British Columbia, just as our spring break was getting started, everything shut down--no travel, and no schools to return to.

Also, when the virus first appeared here, it did so in senior care facilities. Because many staff work in more than one care home, the virus was carried from one to the next. Tragically, many of those vulnerable seniors have passed away. But, because of where the outbreaks occurred, patients could be isolated, visitors prohibited, and staff tracked. Made it easier to try to control the outbreaks.

Had the proliferation of the virus occurred two to three weeks later, students here would have been on our two week holiday, with many of them travelling to China, South Korea, Japan and other destinations. And then returning. Yikes.

President Lyndon Johnson's father described it as the 'tentacles of circumstance'.

Stay safe everyone.