Conoravirus ...

[LarryHoward]

But will you be here to post my bail? That's the true mark of friendship.

We would but it might take a day or so with everything shut down.

[Chris Chesley]

Being the cantankerous contrarian that I am.... I'd post your bail as well.

However, since they're releasing 'real' criminals these days, I don't think you'd go to jail (now at least). The more likely result will be a citation and a court date (or projected court date). Plus, I'd fight the ticket in court...(if it were me--he said with false bravado).

[slap]

And don't forget - you will probably make the news, as a "rich yachty" scofflaw.

[H B]

Fortunately(?) the forecast for the week is cold or shitty or, cold-and-shitty. Somebody left the thermostat stuck on "March."

The calendar too..isn't today like March 54th ?

[Olaf Hart]

You could go sailing down here Ajax, we can use our boats as long as we obey the distancing rules and don’t go further than a days distance from home port.

It’s OK to anchor, as long as we are not too far away.

[Benno von Humpback]

I heard the DNR can confiscate your boat because RICO.

[kimbottles]

We have dozens of visiting boats every weekend now. (Only a few are silly enough to RAFT!)
WE are only about 6 miles from either Shilshole or Elliot Bay marina.
Nice to see people using their boats to isolate. I have heard nothing yet to indicate it is not allowed.

[BeauV]

I'm just doing some introspection, trying to assess how much of a selfish asshole I'm being for thinking about going sailing.

There's a lot of people protesting to lift shelter at home orders and I was wondering if I'm accidentally falling in with the stupid crowd.

Two thoughts: First, sailing is actually a really safe bit of boating. Each time I've looked at the safety-at-sea data, out of many hundred fatalities per year on the water sailing is single to low double digits. You, sir, are very safety concious. So, I really doubt you'll put others at risk.

Second, there is a tiny chance you'd hurt yourself and need to be hauled into a hospital, again really tiny. You'd be much more at risk in the hospital waiting room than you will be sailing. IMHO.

[BeauV]

...snip...

There's a lot of people protesting to lift shelter at home orders and I was wondering if I'm accidentally falling in with the stupid crowd.

Rich,

I don't think that there are "a lot of people protesting to lift shelter at home orders". Your post got me curious. Here's what I found:
- San Jose, CA 25 protestors
- Orlando, FL 15 protestors
- Sacramento, CA just under 100 protestors in cars (It's CA after all everyone does everything in cars)
- Harrisburg, PA five different articles from MSN, CNN, NYTImes, etc.. didn't say how many people. I found a local paper that said a dozen cars and the Daily Mail said "hundreds". But most pictures showed about 50-100, many only showed four or five.
- Columbus, OH again, to real numbers but photos show about 30 to 70.
- Bismark, ND again, the news media nearly outnumberd the protestors

In 20 minutes of surfing the web, could only turn up a very small number of estimates which didn't sound completely bogus (The Daily Mail is hardly a credible source)

I'm sort of curious how much of this "Shutdown the shutdown" movement is just a made for media wave. It sure feels like it.

[Ajax]

Beau,

You omitted the Michigan "Gridlock" protest:
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronaviru ... am-protest

I figure NPR is a fairly credible source. The article indicates "several thousand cars." Many of those cars had more than one occupant.

Our favorit USA-basher, Sloop John B over on SA opined that only retarded conservatives are the ones out protesting. My local news channel is fairly liberal and urban-centric. They covered a protest in DC/Northern Virginia and interviewed several people. I myself, was surprised to observe a diverse cross section of races, personality types and political beliefs out there protesting.

In any case, I still agree with you that the protesters represent a minority...somewhere in the 30% range according to polls (which are not very reliable). I think these protesters haven't lost anyone to the virus or worse, had a mild case of the virus and figure if they were able to shrug it off, then anyone should be able to shrug it off. It never seems "real" until it affects you, personally.

[H B]

As much as all this shutdown stuff is dragging on and one-day Amazon prime shipping is now one-week, which is really slowing my projects down (I started shipping little stuff to myself instead of an unnecessary trip to the h/w store), I still think Darwin will take care of most of it...the only problem in my view is that if the protesters are spreading the shit around further, it will just extend the lock down.

[Ajax]

If the lockdown were lifted today, we still wouldn't participate in society anymore than we are right now, with the exception of wilderness cruising.

Not until there's a successful anti-viral, or a vaccine and on-demand testing. My wife agrees.

[TheOffice]

I loved the protester who painting his truck to say "Jesus is my vaccine". Wondering if Jesus will intubate the idiot too?

[Ajax]

I loved the protester who painting his truck to say "Jesus is my vaccine". Wondering if Jesus will intubate the idiot too?

Ya know, I'm a Catholic. I am spiritual in my own private way. I believe that morons like that are the most dangerous group in this mess.

God gave us free will and the ability to step out of the way of a speeding vehicle rather than standing there and getting run over. I would like to think that God would like us to be unselfish and not run around infecting our vulnerable neighbors, also.

We have a "Jesus is my vaccine" person here in my office. Turns out he was "Patient X" during my brief corona-scare. Thank goodness he tested negative. My office mate and I were seriously considering knee-capping him with a tire iron in the parking lot, after work.

[kimbottles]

I had an employee who refused our very generous 401K plan because he said: “Jesus will provide for my retirement.”

[Ajax]

I had an employee who refused our very generous 401K plan because he said: “Jesus will provide for my retirement.”

These people use their faith to validate their intellectual laziness and refusal to accept personal responsibility for themselves and their actions. For every bible verse that purportes that God or Jesus will take care of you, there is also a verse that urges you to help yourself, and help your neighbors. These people only read the half of the bible that they like.

[kimbottles]

We had another employee who refused our 401K plan because: “I have a rich brother and he will take care of me.”
I wonder if his brother knew of that plan.........

But with over 95% participation I guess we would have to expect a few outliers.

[Benno von Humpback]

Screen Shot 2020-04-21 at 12.06.47.png

[Jamie]

Interesting info on some of the data and trends.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/po ... -protests/

[Ajax]

Yep, big kudos to Hogan for getting it done and showing Trump how to get it done. I'm hearing that we still have a shortage of swabs and reagant(sp?) to use the tests.

Speaking of religion, here's God's way of telling me "Don't even think of breaking the quarantine."

[Benno von Humpback]

Yep, big kudos to Hogan for getting it done and showing Trump how to get it done. I'm hearing that we still have a shortage of swabs and reagant(sp?) to use the tests.

I'm mainly impressed with the shade he's throwing on Trump.

Impressively unimpressive weather.

[LarryHoward]

Screen Shot 2020-04-21 at 12.06.47.png

[kdh]

We had another employee who refused our 401K plan because: “I have a rich brother and he will take care of me.”
I wonder if his brother knew of that plan.........

But with over 95% participation I guess we would have to expect a few outliers.

Maybe the brother should have been participating in the plan.

[Benno von Humpback]

More non-positive news on hydroxychloroquine.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.16.20065920v1.full.pdf

[LarryHoward]

More non-positive news on hydroxychloroquine.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.16.20065920v1.full.pdf

That's some scary data

[Ajax]

My opinion, is that we're fucked.

Looking at 3 different modeling websites, I am not seeing any indication of a peak or a sustained decline. I see wild, erratic swings that consist 3-4 days of promising declines, and then sharp upticks. Basically, a rough plateau.

I have an untested, unsustantiated theory for this. The degree of isolation that we are maintaining has slowed the spread just enough so that hospitals can cope, but we are not isolating nearly enough to burn out the virus. Too many "essential" businesses, like World Wrestling Entertainment. Still too much co-mingling, not enough mitigation. This is compounded by the fact that we're learning that there are way, way more asymptomatic people spreading the virus than first suspected.

Check back in 5-14 days from the dates of the largest protests- I'll bet we see a sharp uptick in new cases at those locations. In fact, the timing of yesterday's large uptick seems to match up with an incubation period that would have started on Easter Sunday. How many families said "fuck it" and got together for Sunday dinner? Jesus Christ, my own office ONLY THIS MORNING made masks mandatory in the building.

I keep hearing shit like "Eat take-out, support your local restaurants." Then I read articles containing quotes from restaurant owners who fully admit to catching their employees not wearing masks, not wearing gloves, standing close together. Nope. We've only bought take-out twice in 2 1/2 months, but we'll be buying zero take-out in the future. These people simply can't be trusted to do what's necessary.

States are opening up and I predict that in one month or less, we're going to see hospitals maxxed out and people dying in the corridors again.

[Jamie]

Yeah, we’re screwed. It will be long and painful for us.

Two of my four tenants didn’t pay April rent. One household is two chefs, so I know they must be hard up. The reason for the others is a bit less clear.

[kdh]

My opinion, is that we're fucked.

Looking at 3 different modeling websites, I am not seeing any indication of a peak or a sustained decline. I see wild, erratic swings that consist 3-4 days of promising declines, and then sharp upticks. Basically, a rough plateau.

I have an untested, unsustantiated theory for this. The degree of isolation that we are maintaining has slowed the spread just enough so that hospitals can cope, but we are not isolating nearly enough to burn out the virus. Too many "essential" businesses, like World Wrestling Entertainment. Still too much co-mingling, not enough mitigation. This is compounded by the fact that we're learning that there are way, way more asymptomatic people spreading the virus than first suspected.

Check back in 5-14 days from the dates of the largest protests- I'll bet we see a sharp uptick in new cases at those locations. In fact, the timing of yesterday's large uptick seems to match up with an incubation period that would have started on Easter Sunday. How many families said "fuck it" and got together for Sunday dinner? Jesus Christ, my own office ONLY THIS MORNING made masks mandatory in the building.

I keep hearing shit like "Eat take-out, support your local restaurants." Then I read articles containing quotes from restaurant owners who fully admit to catching their employees not wearing masks, not wearing gloves, standing close together. Nope. We've only bought take-out twice in 2 1/2 months, but we'll be buying zero take-out in the future. These people simply can't be trusted to do what's necessary.

States are opening up and I predict that in one month or less, we're going to see hospitals maxxed out and people dying in the corridors again.

Rich, maybe this is some salve. The sample size has to be big to make inferences. Here are new cases in the US.

Screen Shot 2020-04-22 at 9.42.21 AM.png

Left unchecked, we'd see an exponential increase in new cases. Instead we see roughly the same amount of new cases even though the number of infected people available to infect others is going up. This is what we were hoping for. Hopefully hospitals can handle this.

The realistic goal to me is herd immunity, through that gained from being infected and hopefully a vaccine. When the negligent get infected herd immunity gets closer.

[Ajax]

I think the virus spreads so fast, we'll be close to herd immunity by the time a vaccine is developed.
I'd really like to see some successful anti-virals to treat those that are worst affected by the virus.

[slap]

As far as take out food goes my guess is that the safest is food that has the least human interaction with it once it is cooked, and something that you can nuke in the microwave when you get it home. Something like pizza.