Conoravirus ...

[Benno von Humpback]

[
Uhh, no kidding. I know a couple of healthy young people whose Strava feeds suggest they are too.

The good news about the stationary bikes is that I have three different ones and despite all I actually like riding them. When I was competitive I used the Computrainer to train because the telemetry was most helpful in adding and tracking fitness, the LeMond Rev Master works great for riding while watching videos and reading, the rollers will really smooth out your pedaling stroke. (Now that I think about it I actually have four stationary systems, there is another one up on a shelve in the garage I haven’t looked at in several years.) All in all I don’t mind riding the stationeries.

We have a KICKR Snap—a wheel-on smart trainer because we switch between his and hers bikes—and subscriptions to Zwift and Rouvy. I pretty much hate it, but it sure beats intervals on a dumb trainer. I don't have a PM on the road bike, so it allows me to follow my power in a relative way and generate data for a regression model to estimate training load from time in HR zones when I'm outdoors.

I love intervals, hill repeats and motorpacing. But that love is directly related to how much fitness I got from each back during my serious competitive years. It all carries over to now when I do them because I love that feeling of fitness they provide. (Must be the endorphins.)

I'm treating clinical-level anxiety with exercise and unless it hurts, I'm not happy. I need a weekly TSS of ≥ 500 to feel good and I tend to split that over one > 3hr ride on the weekend and a bunch of interval workouts during the week. I have a lot of trouble periodizing like I should.

Every bike ride should hurt, otherwise what’s the point? That’s why hills are your friend. (Too bad we live so far apart Eric, we could have been bike buddies.)

Hills are my friend because I'm a 140 lb weakling and can't hang anywhere else. You're in a whole different league, Kim.

[kimbottles]

Every bike ride should hurt, otherwise what’s the point? That’s why hills are your friend. (Too bad we live so far apart Eric, we could have been bike buddies.)

Hills are my friend because I'm a 140 lb weakling and can't hang anywhere else. You're in a whole different league, Kim.

That was a long time ago Eric, we could ride together now.

[Olaf Hart]

Don’t know if you guys are up to speed on Patrick Childress, he and Rebecca caught Coronavirus in Capetown, she was sick but he ended up on a ventilator and dialysis.

Rebecca has been blogging about this for the last week, but her latest letter is an excellent summary of many of the clinical issues at the severe end of this condition.

http://whereisbrickhouse.com/

[Benno von Humpback]

Don’t know if you guys are up to speed on Patrick Childress, he and Rebecca caught Coronavirus in Capetown, she was sick but he ended up on a ventilator and dialysis.

Rebecca has been blogging about this for the last week, but her latest letter is an excellent summary of many of the clinical issues at the severe end of this condition.

http://whereisbrickhouse.com/

Too scary to read. The isolation from loved ones doubles my terror of my or a family member’s hospitalization with this disease.

[Jamie]

When I read Rebecca’s posts, I can’t help but think of that Kundera quote where he says everyone needs someone to look at them and “ third category, the category of people who need to be constantly before the eyes of the person they love. their situation is as dangerous as the situation of people in the first category. one day the eyes of their beloved will close, and the room will go dark.”. They have had such a long and close relationship.

[kimbottles]

I can’t imagine what they are both going through being separated at such a critical time. I hope he gets better, but I fear for him (and for her.)

Susan and I are unhappy that she is not allowed to go into the clinic with me for my infusions, instead she has to stay outside of the building for the 3-4 hours it all takes. Of course our situation pales in comparison to what Patrick and Rebecca are going through, but it really bring home to us how awful it must be for them.

When will this nightmare end?

[Tigger]

Eric and Kim ... when the Pandemic lifts and Kim's treatments are complete, you really should ride together. Here's a suggestion--the Kettle Valley Railway (now a trail) in the Okanagan. Spectacular scenery, and lots of wineries for distraction! If you are bat shit crazy and need a big hill climb there's the ascent of Anarchist Mountain out of Osoyoos ...

https://kettlevalleyrailtrail.com/resou ... g-the-kvr/

[kimbottles]

Eric and Kim ... when the Pandemic lifts and Kim's treatments are complete, you really should ride together. Here's a suggestion--the Kettle Valley Railway (now a trail) in the Okanagan. Spectacular scenery, and lots of wineries for distraction! If you are bat shit crazy and need a big hill climb there's the ascent of Anarchist Mountain out of Osoyoos ...

https://kettlevalleyrailtrail.com/resou ... g-the-kvr/

I would have to buy a gravel bike. I am a road (and once a track) racer.

Maximum grade of 2.2%?? That is not a climb. 22% would be a climb.

[Benno von Humpback]

Eric and Kim ... when the Pandemic lifts and Kim's treatments are complete, you really should ride together. Here's a suggestion--the Kettle Valley Railway (now a trail) in the Okanagan. Spectacular scenery, and lots of wineries for distraction! If you are bat shit crazy and need a big hill climb there's the ascent of Anarchist Mountain out of Osoyoos ...

https://kettlevalleyrailtrail.com/resou ... g-the-kvr/

Very nice. I have the bike for it too.

3AC72088-6DF6-49C1-953D-3C4364EE678F.jpeg

[BeauV]

The news media around here finally started including some of the outlying counties in their SF Bay Area reports. The data is interesting. Clearly, it helped tremendously to lockdown early. But, it's also clear that the number of cases and fatalities are pretty highly correlated with high population density, high use of public transit, and minority percent of the population. More and more, this is becoming a disease of black, brown, and poor people. I'm guessing this is because they're the least likely to be able to afford simply staying home; they'll starve.

What is appalling is that the rich, white, and untouched in our population are now lobbying to re-open by simply ignoring the data because: "This is nonsense, none of my friends are sick. We need to stop being such cowards and re-open. My business is going under because of these stupid rules." I know this isn't true everywhere (even though in NY State 16% of the COVID-19 cases are Black and Latino while they are only 10% of the population). But is most certainly true in counties like Napa, Santa Cruz, San Joaquin, and Alameda.

Local news with data about Santa Cruz and Napa counties

[Olaf Hart]

https://elemental.medium.com/coronaviru ... 4032481ab2

In summary, in some people they are finding lots of viral particles in endothelial cells, the cells that line blood vessels throughout the body.

This opens the door to clotting and end organ damage on a wide scale, not just lung damage like SARS1, so we now have a reasonable hypothesis for the more severe forms of this condition.

It’s bad news, but opens up some interesting treatment and preventative options like statins and ACE inhibitors.

The pre existing risk factors just make death more likely if this endothelial damage happens.

Interesting observations on crowding Beau, and related socioeconomic factors. I keep going back to my early experience in very poor communities, these folks are so stressed that health concerns, especially preventative measures, are down the bottom of the priority list.

Many are also much more likely to have metabolic syndrome risk factors ...

[BeauV]

OH, this sounds a bit like what some pediatricians are seeing. A good friend and fellow sailor is a Ped. Doc. and has bumped into this multiple times. My understanding is the number of cases is still less than 400 worldwide, but it is very worrisome as it is often fatal and so far untreatable. It has shown up in China, various European countries, and the US. Which is about all I know of it.

https://www.healthychildren.org/English/health-issues/conditions/chest-lungs/Pages/covid_inflammatory_condition.aspx

[H B]

Sorry to hear about Mr. Gerred, Shawn.

Sometimes my brain takes a different tack, maybe even a "flyer" but in some ways this might be a bit of a blessing. My father died of PD and it was a very long, painful, slog. Painful for friends and family members I mean...Dad did not suffer from very much physical pain, but losing his dignity and athleticism was crushing for him. He was a D1 scholarship athlete and always played at a high level even if was just touch football in the street. But I digress....

My point is: if it were my choice, I'd rather go relatively quickly than go thru years and years of degenerative illness. In any case, R.I.P. Mr. Gerred.

Tim, Yeah..I hear ya 100%, and I agree..I would not want to be a burden on others and make them suffer with me. My mother has been gone for several years, she degenerated from what we commonly call Alzheimer's, but more correctly she was diagnosed with front temporal lobe dementia. From a basic human function standpoint, her ability to speak coherently went first, and the last was the ability to swallow..all the other stuff failed in between. She just whittled away to nothing but it took years and was awful to watch. I am glad she is resting peacefully now. Good ol' Frank had a pretty great life I think. I feel terrible for his wife, Rita, but she does have plenty of blood and non-blood family!

It is all part of the process of life I guess...just gotta get used to it happening more frequently as we get older.

[Charlie]

Sorry to hear about Mr. Gerred, Shawn.

Sometimes my brain takes a different tack, maybe even a "flyer" but in some ways this might be a bit of a blessing. My father died of PD and it was a very long, painful, slog. Painful for friends and family members I mean...Dad did not suffer from very much physical pain, but losing his dignity and athleticism was crushing for him. He was a D1 scholarship athlete and always played at a high level even if was just touch football in the street. But I digress....

My point is: if it were my choice, I'd rather go relatively quickly than go thru years and years of degenerative illness. In any case, R.I.P. Mr. Gerred.

Tim, Yeah..I hear ya 100%, and I agree..I would not want to be a burden on others and make them suffer with me. My mother has been gone for several years, she degenerated from what we commonly call Alzheimer's, but more correctly she was diagnosed with front temporal lobe dementia. From a basic human function standpoint, her ability to speak coherently went first, and the last was the ability to swallow..all the other stuff failed in between. She just whittled away to nothing but it took years and was awful to watch. I am glad she is resting peacefully now. Good ol' Frank had a pretty great life I think. I feel terrible for his wife, Rita, but she does have plenty of blood and non-blood family!

It is all part of the process of life I guess...just gotta get used to it happening more frequently as we get older.

Shawn,

Glad your Mom is at peace. My BIL’s father is in the late stages of FTD, and it is a very difficult path.

Charlie

[H B]

Thanks, Charlie. And, yes..it is difficult. She was a good woman and mother. I miss her, but we all still celebrate her life on her birthday in early April!

[LarryHoward]

One benefit to COVID. Less than normal traffic. I had to go to meeting in central Long Island yesterday and made the round trip driving in one day. with 30 minutes lost to a detour going up (massive traffic at Newark/Wilmington Delaware) and a stop for a head break and gas on the NJ turnpike, it took 5:50 going up. Coming back, with one stop for gas, a head break and a bottle of water, it took 5:10. Left home at 0430 and got back at 1930 and was at HQ for exactly 4 hours and put 650 miles on the car. Restaurants in Suffolk County don't open until today and flight schedules would have required going up Monday night plus hotel, rental car, etc. plus a ride on SW on an airplane that started the trip in Ft Lauderdale. I did pack an overnight bag in case I got delayed.

[Jamie]

I'll have to ask my son about flying. His Summer Internship is with an "essential industry" so he's flying up to PDX. I'm hoping to get a negative COVID test so I can fly up to ME and play with my boat in July.

[Olaf Hart]

An interesting paradox, COVID has actually saved lives in Australia this year..

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-13/ ... w/12332204

We only have 100 COVID deaths so far...

[Olaf Hart]

One of the strategies used by Oz and NZ, who have been able to keep this thing within the boundaries of contact tracing, has been compulsory quarantine of all overseas arrivals for 14 days in vacant hotels, at the government’s expense.

Works pretty well, have picked up lots of cases of COVID and does a good job of isolating people in quarantine for a couple of weeks.

There is a story going round that in Auckland a homeless guy joined the end of a queue outside a five star hotel, and ended up enjoying a 14 day stay at the government’s expense.

Not confirmed yet, but there is an investigation pending...

[Ajax]

Maryland is doing an excellent job of slowing the virus.

Positivity rate is under 6% now.
Hospitalizations are under 500. ICU beds are a little over 200.
Daily deaths are now in the low teens.

These rates continue to decline. I attribute our success to a few things- People in Maryland generally seem to take it seriously and masks have become de rigueur. The warm, humid weather inhibits the virus' viability. With the warm weather, people are able to be out and about while easily maintaining distance and avoiding enclosed areas with closed ventilation systems.

I'm not saying that we'll see a 2nd wave, but I do expect difficulties during the winter when everyone is forced inside. Hopefully masks and sanitization practices minimize any spikes. I suppose there's a good chance that coronavirus hygiene practices may also mitigate flu transmission.

For all the success, I'm still not relaxing my posture. We're not dining at restaurants, we're eating from the garden. Tonight will be fish tacos made from the catfish I caught and cabbage from our CSA.
I'm actually ready for a break from boiled crab. Although come to think of it, I do think I'd like some crab meat for Crabby Eggs Benedict.

[Panope]

Me and a couple buddies fuckin around in a plane (that's Kit Africa in the back seat).

My voice heard at the end of the video.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Coux8l ... sp=sharing

I believe that Kit Africa did a bit of work on MAYAN years ago.

Beau,

I bumped into Kit Africa - He said he had done a TON of work on MAYAN and quite a bit of sailing. He used to deliver her up and down the coast for David.

Kit mentioned having both sticks out and replacing all rigging. He and another guy built a new centerboard and installed it with the boat in the water!

This was occuring back in the early 70's. From memory, he said the center board was purple heart with a 1/2" stainless steel band around the perimeter. Tie rods passed through everything and were welded to the band.

Next time you are in town, be sure and stop by his vineyard. I'm sure he would like to swap MAYAN stories.

Steve

[Panope]

.......I forgot to mention that Kit had also carved new name boards with lettering that had the first line of the "M" slanted right and the last line of the "N" slanted left - like a pyramid.

Are these boards still in use?

Steve

[BeauV]

Me and a couple buddies fuckin around in a plane (that's Kit Africa in the back seat).

My voice heard at the end of the video.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Coux8l ... sp=sharing

I believe that Kit Africa did a bit of work on MAYAN years ago.

Beau,

I bumped into Kit Africa - He said he had done a TON of work on MAYAN and quite a bit of sailing. He used to deliver her up and down the coast for David.

Kit mentioned having both sticks out and replacing all rigging. He and another guy built a new centerboard and installed it with the boat in the water!

This was occuring back in the early 70's. From memory, he said the center board was purple heart with a 1/2" stainless steel band around the perimeter. Tie rods passed through everything and were welded to the band.

Next time you are in town, be sure and stop by his vineyard. I'm sure he would like to swap MAYAN stories.

Steve

Steve, I’d really like to talk to Kit. I have a few questions which he is the guy with the answers.

I do know we have his centerboard still in the boat. I wasn’t sure of the wood, but will know a lot more soon. We’re about to strip and fair it, mostly to put a rounded leading edge on the thing. It’s currently square

More importantly, I’m trying to figure out some bits about the rigging and David said Kit did it. I also have some stained glass that I think he made and may wish to have back.

Anyway, if he has a phone or email, I’d love to contact him.

[BeauV]

.......I forgot to mention that Kit had also carved new name boards with lettering that had the first line of the "M" slanted right and the last line of the "N" slanted left - like a pyramid.

Are these boards still in use?

Steve

I’m in the middle of refinishing them now. Also repairing the lenses in the running lights, which were broken.

[SemiSalt]

This is a graph I've been keeping to get perspective on the IMHE forecasts. The jagged blue line is the actual record of deaths. The smoother lines are forecasts made at various times. You can see that, for May and June, Connecticut has been doing better than forecasts. The number of deaths statewide in the last 7 days for which I have data is 80.

2020-06-19_0938.png

Here in Stamford, there have been three deaths reported in the last week. New cases per day have been mostly in the single digits for a couple weeks. So we feel we've done pretty well. OTOH, my wife reports that discipline has diminished muchly. On a couple of ventures into stores in the last day or two, she reported that the manager of the CVS was wearing his mask under his nose. Also, many folks at the grocery store were not wearing masks or were wearing them improperly. She saved her deadliest venom for a cop wearing no mask who wouldn't shut up.

In comparison (to be continued) ....

[SemiSalt]

Statistics continued....

My brother pointed me this Washington Post web page which they self-righteously point out they are not keeping behind the paywall:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics ... G7GwjQy4zk

This is deaths in the last week per capita.

2020-06-19_1012.png

You can see the mid-Atlantic seaboard (still!) and Georgia are the biggest problem areas.

[SemiSalt]

Statistics continued....

There was a lot of fuss about Oklahoma because the President was going to hold a rally there.

2020-06-19_1017.png

So, how are they doing?

2020-06-19_1019.png

About 3 deaths/day. I couldn't easily get a graph of new cases, but IMHE doesn't forecast are rise in deaths, so I guess the rise in new cases must be pretty modest.

Conclusion: Ya gotta look at the numbers.

[Panope]

Steve, I’d really like to talk to Kit. I have a few questions which he is the guy with the answers.

I do know we have his centerboard still in the boat. I wasn’t sure of the wood, but will know a lot more soon. We’re about to strip and fair it, mostly to put a rounded leading edge on the thing. It’s currently square

More importantly, I’m trying to figure out some bits about the rigging and David said Kit did it. I also have some stained glass that I think he made and may wish to have back.

Anyway, if he has a phone or email, I’d love to contact him.

Kit is happy to chat, Beau.

I'll text his contact info.

Steve

[Jamie]

Oooph - Floriduh takes the cake. Corona is spiking pretty hard. 3.8k new cases yesterday. It was 667 on June 1st.

Oh and the Governor is blaming, "Migrant Workers".

https://experience.arcgis.com/experienc ... db9b25e429

[BeauV]

Semi - here are the charts for Cases and Deaths from OK. Source

Given it takes about two-four weeks to progress from a "Case" to a Death, I'd say that while Trump is correct that the number of deaths has declined, he is a fool for not realizing that this will bite him in the ass in about three weeks as the current documented cases have already spiked, his event will cause them to spike even more (along with the inevitable protests by those who genuinely revile this guy), and around the middle of July he'll be trying desperately to blame someone else for the massive number of deaths laid has his feet. Crudely estimating from the data below, fatalities seem to hover around 4-5% of cases. With cases already spiking to over 400/day and the event still to come, this means Donald's political stunt will probably kill about 20-30 people, all entirely preventable. I doubt he gives a shit.

I feel we're watching a political disaster that is slow in appearing (4-6 weeks) but will have massive consequences. It would have been so easy to avoid this.