Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby BeauV » Sun Feb 16, 2020 1:31 pm

SemiSalt wrote:Driving electric cars until they stop: a comparison is several models.

https://youtu.be/ZH7V2tU3iFc

Spoiler: Tesla does well.


Interesting. We once loaned the Model S to someone who managed to drive it for 15 miles after the gauge said zero. That's how he brought it back to us, the wanker.

Another bit folks might find interesting is that the 85 KwH battery in the Model S has almost exactly the same range as the 100 KwH battery in the Model X, despite the far better drag characteristics of the S. In researching it, the culprit is the set of wide high-performance tires we have on the S, they have much more rolling resistance. It turns out that the stock tires will give us an extra 60 miles, according to comparisons with a friend. He also runs his tires at 55 PSI when having to push the range, thereby adding a reported 30 miles more.
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby kimbottles » Sun Feb 16, 2020 4:34 pm

When I had that Solectria Force EV I had the low resistance running tires mounted to squeeze as much range as possible. Of course it had lead acid batteries (LiLion weren’t invented yet) so the range was 25-30 miles. Which worked out OK on an island only 12 miles long and 3 miles wide.
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby BeauV » Mon Feb 17, 2020 3:41 pm

An interesting article about Tesla's lead in the electronics section of auto manufacturing. Also, interesting to see them following Apple's lead to greater and greater system integration.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Automobiles/Tesla-teardown-finds-electronics-6-years-ahead-of-Toyota-and-VW2
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby H B » Wed Feb 19, 2020 10:19 am

BeauV wrote:Interesting. We once loaned the Model S to someone who managed to drive it for 15 miles after the gauge said zero. That's how he brought it back to us, the wanker.


Is this the same wanker that recommended davits on Mayan in the other thread?!?!? :lol: :lol:
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby BeauV » Wed Feb 19, 2020 4:54 pm

H B wrote:
BeauV wrote:Interesting. We once loaned the Model S to someone who managed to drive it for 15 miles after the gauge said zero. That's how he brought it back to us, the wanker.


Is this the same wanker that recommended davits on Mayan in the other thread?!?!? :lol: :lol:


No, it's a different wanker. :lol: :lol: I have all the very best friends. :shock:
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby BeauV » Fri Sep 25, 2020 8:41 pm

I just stumbled over a new start-up in CA called Lucid Air Website HERE

They are talking smack about the fastest etc.... comparing themselves to a 9-year-old Tesla. Yawn! Their claim is that they are a few percentage points faster than the industry leader.

What I really find amazing is that the Lucid Air is much faster than the Porsche. Come on Porsche, some of us are rooting for you. Pick up the pace!

:D
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby kdh » Sat Sep 26, 2020 7:18 am

There's a long history of companies trying to out-Porsche Porsche. Can you name a car that competes effectively with a 911?

Porsche are famous for conservative specs.

https://www.caranddriver.com/porsche/taycan

In our testing, the Taycan Turbo S ripped to 60 mph in 2.4 seconds, making it the fastest EV-only car we've ever tested and the third-quickest car in the history of our testing. (Behind the Lamborghini Huracán Performante and the Porsche 918 Spyder.)
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby BeauV » Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:49 pm

Keith, Porsche is struggling to build a car that can compete with a 9 year old Tesla design. At this moment, a Porsche which cost 40% more that the Tesla is slightly faster. Since the test you quoted was run, a number of Tesla prototypes have obliterated the Porsche record with only minor mods to the Tesla.

2020 Sales in US for:
Porsche = 1,032
Tesla = 7,800 (a nine year old design from a startup)

BTW, Taycan appears to be destroying Panamera sales, not Tesla.
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby BeauV » Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:49 pm

Keith, Porsche is struggling to build a car that can compete with a 9 year old Tesla design. At this moment, a Porsche which cost 40% more that the Tesla is slightly faster. Since the test you quoted was run, a number of Tesla prototypes have obliterated the Porsche record with only minor mods to the Tesla.

2020 Sales in US for:
Porsche = 1,032
Tesla = 7,800 (a nine year old design from a startup)

BTW, Taycan appears to be destroying Panamera sales, not Tesla.
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby TheOffice » Sun Sep 27, 2020 6:33 am

VW started taking reservations for the ID4. The website crashed!

Cali want t ban the sale of new ICE vehicles in 2035. The grid is going to need a major upgrade.
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby BeauV » Sun Sep 27, 2020 6:36 am

I have to say I COMPLETELY AGREE that the CA electrical grid won't be able to withstand what's coming with electric cars. I keep hoping that folks will do the simple engineering calculation to understand this. I'm guessing that within 5 years we'll have a battery stack at home similar (or perhaps actually) a Tesla Powerwall. It'll be paired to a natural -gas-powered generator.

It's also the case that the grid has a lot of excess capacity late at night. Time-based-pricing has already driven most Tesla owners to only re-charge at night, which works fine for the same reason you only recharge your cell phone at night - you're not using it.
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby LarryHoward » Sun Sep 27, 2020 8:14 am

BeauV wrote:Keith, Porsche is struggling to build a car that can compete with a 9 year old Tesla design. At this moment, a Porsche which cost 40% more that the Tesla is slightly faster. Since the test you quoted was run, a number of Tesla prototypes have obliterated the Porsche record with only minor mods to the Tesla.

2020 Sales in US for:
Porsche = 1,032
Tesla = 7,800 (a nine year old design from a startup)

BTW, Taycan appears to be destroying Panamera sales, not Tesla.


Plaid is anything but a minor mod. As usual with Elon, it won’t be available to buy until 2022 (until that date slides like all of his other predictions). 9 years and enough cars to lose the tax break. Time to lose the “start up” title.

But, you are correct. Taycan is killing Panamera, particularly in Europe.
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby BeauV » Sun Sep 27, 2020 8:20 pm

Larry, we came very close to buying a Panamera. It would have been the 7th Porsche we would have owned. (a '67 912, mid-60s 914/6, '76 Turbo 911, '08 Turbo 911, '05 Cayane, and '12 Cayane Diesel.) For the Admiral, the fraud associated with the VW/Porsche diesel did it - she won't have a car from that company period. we swapped the Cayane Diesel for the Tesla Model S. One quarter the operating costs and about the same purchase price.
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby TheOffice » Mon Oct 05, 2020 7:52 am

Saw my first Model Y last night. Looked like a 3 hatchback with nicer tailights than the 3.
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby BeauV » Mon Oct 05, 2020 9:30 am

Yes, I agree the Model-Y is a bit better looking that the 3. It's a much more reasonable car than the Model X, my Admiral does NOT like the X-Wing Fighter doors on the Model-X. Unit sales for Tesla are WAY up, I think I read 30-40% Y/Y. Demand seems quite strong.
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby TheOffice » Mon Oct 05, 2020 12:51 pm

BeauV wrote:Yes, I agree the Model-Y is a bit better looking that the 3. It's a much more reasonable car than the Model X, my Admiral does NOT like the X-Wing Fighter doors on the Model-X. Unit sales for Tesla are WAY up, I think I read 30-40% Y/Y. Demand seems quite strong.


Of course, they don't break down sales by model or country, so hard to know what is selling where. Looks like the S is going to get a refresh.
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby BeauV » Mon Oct 05, 2020 11:54 pm

TheOffice wrote:
BeauV wrote:Yes, I agree the Model-Y is a bit better looking that the 3. It's a much more reasonable car than the Model X, my Admiral does NOT like the X-Wing Fighter doors on the Model-X. Unit sales for Tesla are WAY up, I think I read 30-40% Y/Y. Demand seems quite strong.


Of course, they don't break down sales by model or country, so hard to know what is selling where. Looks like the S is going to get a refresh.


Yes, the S needs a refresh. That said, it was fun blowing away a 3 today. :)
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby Panope » Tue Oct 06, 2020 12:05 am

One month ago my neighbor advertised their 2013 Nissan Leaf for sale for $6,000. It has 39K miles.

I offered them $5,000. They declined.

Today, they sent me a text message wishing to sell me the car if I am still interested.

I am torn. The leaf would be neat but replacing the battery ($5,000?) at some point takes the fun out of it.

The Ford Ranger (my daily driver) gets 27 miles per gallon and will last another 30 years.

Financially, it is a no brainer. - Just drive the wheels of the Ford.

Does anybody know how long a leaf battery lasts (calendar and or miles)?

Steve
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby BeauV » Tue Oct 06, 2020 6:13 am

Steve,

It's really hard to answer your question about a lifetime for the Leaf battery. It depends on a lot of different things including the number of deep cycles, the temperature at which the battery was operated, the temperature at which the battery was charged (cold charging is hard on them), not leaving the battery sitting for long periods dicharged deeply or completely charged up (they like to be stored between 25 adn 75 percent), and the sophistication of the charging circuitry (which I don't know at all). There is a total number of lifetime cycles, just like most batteries. Initially, folks thought Prius batteries would only be good for 100,000 miles, but that turned out to be false with many battery stacks lasting much longer than the rest of the car because they are only shallowly discharged in a hybrid.

It's interesting to note that the Leaf comes with a 100,000-mile warranty on the battery. If you're not doing a long commute, you could drive the thing a long time before getting to that. Basically, the owner is asking about $1/mile if you assume a 100,000 mile lifetime. The only other cost will be tires. It might be a really cheap way to get around town if you like the car.

Your Ford at 27 MPG is probably costing you about the same amount when you include maintenance, fuel, oil, brakes (I don't know if the Leaf does regenerative braking, but Teslas get about 80,000+ miles on one set of brakes, we're at 70,000 miles with almost no wear on the pads and rotors - they never get used.). It maybe that on a per-mile basis, including depreciation, the Leaf is a lot less expensive than the Ford. That has been our expereince. Our Ford SUV costs about 2.1 times as much to operate as the Tesla SUV, even though it was 35% more expensive.
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby Olaf Hart » Tue Oct 06, 2020 6:57 am

Isn’t that 10c a mile Beau?
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby BeauV » Tue Oct 06, 2020 9:43 am

Maybe I should NOT do arithmetic at 4am :)

100,000 miles on waranty, 60,000 miles left. Cost of Car $6,000. $6,000/60,000=$0.10 <---- Bingo

OK, Steve, the Leaf is WAY cheaper! LOL!!! (I really REALLY shouldn't do simple arithmetic at 4am!!)
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby Panope » Tue Oct 06, 2020 10:44 am

Ok, leaf is cheaper IF the battery lasts 100,000 miles.

The problem is that I only drive 5,000 miles per year. The battery warranty is good for eight years (or 100,000mi.) and this battery is already 7 years old.

It will take me another 12 years to get to 100,000 miles.
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby BeauV » Tue Oct 06, 2020 4:46 pm

Panope wrote:Ok, leaf is cheaper IF the battery lasts 100,000 miles.

The problem is that I only drive 5,000 miles per year. The battery warranty is good for eight years (or 100,000mi.) and this battery is already 7 years old.

It will take me another 12 years to get to 100,000 miles.


Steve, I'm checking, but I'm pretty sure the "lifespan" of a LiIon battery has nothing to do with age. It is only liked to cycles, and other characteristics of how they are treated. Yes, it'd be out of warranty after 8 years, but if you're only driving 5,000 miles a year and treating the batteries nicely, I think the batteries will outlast the seats, dash top, window weatherstripping, and a lot of other things.
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby avramd » Tue Oct 06, 2020 6:54 pm

Steve,

I have heard that there are companies out there that rebuild batteries for a substantial fraction of the factory replacement cost. Apparently they have efficient processes for dismantling and testing all the individual cells, and it normally turns out that that a high percentage of the cells have not actually degraded. I have no first-hand experience with this, and I may not even be getting the reason right. But I had a friend who was planning on buying a used Prius, and was saying that she had a source she trusted for $1500 replacement batteries. Of course the shallow-discharge for hybrids that Beau mentioned may be a factor there.

Also, keep in mind that these batteries don't just suddenly stop working altogether and need to be replaced. When one of these batteries fails, my understanding is that it can generally be repaired. The issue you are concerned with is capacity degradation - that is quite gradual. It might be worth finding a LEAF forum and seeing what people are getting for charge cycles. With your limited use, you could easily get 20 years out of that battery and still be at 50% capacity.

Panope wrote:One month ago my neighbor advertised their 2013 Nissan Leaf for sale for $6,000. It has 39K miles.

I offered them $5,000. They declined.

Today, they sent me a text message wishing to sell me the car if I am still interested.

I am torn. The leaf would be neat but replacing the battery ($5,000?) at some point takes the fun out of it.

The Ford Ranger (my daily driver) gets 27 miles per gallon and will last another 30 years.

Financially, it is a no brainer. - Just drive the wheels of the Ford.

Does anybody know how long a leaf battery lasts (calendar and or miles)?

Steve
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby LarryHoward » Tue Oct 06, 2020 8:47 pm

Not battery related but Tesla has apparently invented the convertible SUV. https://news.yahoo.com/looked-roof-gone ... 57616.html
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby Panope » Wed Oct 07, 2020 3:15 pm

Done Deal.

$5,000

39,000 miles

Battery seems to be close to full capacity.

Wish me luck.

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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby kdh » Wed Oct 07, 2020 6:27 pm

Good luck. Cool looking car.
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby kimbottles » Wed Oct 07, 2020 6:52 pm

Nice!
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby avramd » Wed Oct 07, 2020 7:44 pm

Woohoo!!! Congrats!

Are you doing to install a level 2 charging station? Or is that not a thing with a LEAF?

I gotta say, as much as I am still lusting after a Tesla, and hope to get one once I have finished dealing with my pandemic-related financial stresses, they are astronomically expensive. I think you seriously kicked butt here.

Panope wrote:Done Deal.
$5,000
39,000 miles
Battery seems to be close to full capacity.
Wish me luck.
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby Tigger » Wed Oct 07, 2020 10:02 pm

Congrats on turning over a new, er, used, Leaf! :D
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