Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

[Panope]

Good luck. Cool looking car.

Thanks Keith,

Looks are growing on me.

[Panope]

Woohoo!!! Congrats!

Are you doing to install a level 2 charging station? Or is that not a thing with a LEAF?

I gotta say, as much as I am still lusting after a Tesla, and hope to get one once I have finished dealing with my pandemic-related financial stresses, they are astronomically expensive. I think you seriously kicked butt here.

Thanks avramd,

The car has three charge options:

-120V trickle (20 hours to recharge)
-240V Normal (4-7 hours to recharge)
-Quick Charge (.5 hours to recharge 80%)

Because I only drive about 5,000 miles per year (15-20 miles per day), I think I will hold off installing a 240V charge station and see how it goes with the 120V trickle.

[Panope]

Took the leaf for a test drive to it's furthest intended destination - my fathers house - 23 miles each way.

Started trip with a predicted range of 55 miles (70% charge).

Finished the 46 mile trip with 15 predicted miles to spare. The takeaway is that the predicted mileage is conservative.

So confident that I would make it home, I even turned on the lights! and the heat!

I hear that the "hot" ticket for dealing with winter cold, is to only heat the cabin sparingly, and to use the heated seats to keep comfortable.

Steve

[BeauV]

Steve - great move!

[kimbottles]

I double dare you to drive it down here Steve.

(I have a 240 VAC outlet available that I used for that Solectria Force electric car I once had.)

[derekb]

We live on a floating home with 14 houses down a dock. We all street park. The first resident pulled the trigger on a Model S (Looks really sweet). He is retired so not charging it at work, now we are trying to figure out how to get a few charging outlets in what is really public right away. The utilities are not ready for this but it is a major future demand.

Another friend picked up the little fiat 500 with what around 80 miles range. He started looking into a 240v outlet out at his garage/ alley parking spot when someone pointed out he should just try 110v charging. Turns out that works just fine for him and the low range is a complete none issue in reality as he charges every night the car always has plenty of range for his approx. 20-25 mile commute.

[BeauV]

This won't apply to Steve, but if one has a Tesla and if one recommends that someone else buys a Tesla (and they buy it), then you get free Supercharger usage for as long as you own the car. As a result, we've got both cars with free supercharging forever. (I haven't checked recently to see if the "deal" is still on.)

What this means in practice, is when I'm going on a longish drive, like the 80 mile trip to the Yacht Club from home. I stop at a Supercharger and us my phone hot-spot to re-charge on the way home. It gives me 20 minutes to catch up on email, write, read, or just watch videos of anchor testing and boat building.

I haven't ever found sitting in the car while it slurps up free electrons to be onerous at all. All that's required is good internet and a lot of work to be done, both seem to be abundant always.

[JoeP]

Cool!

[Panope]

I double dare you to drive it down here Steve.

(I have a 240 VAC outlet available that I used for that Solectria Force electric car I once had.)

No problem getting there, but you will be stuck with me for a quite a while as I do not (yet?) own a 240 charge cord.

I'll bring a bedroll.

Steve

[TheOffice]

Our local grocery store is installing a free charger. Great idea!

[kimbottles]

I double dare you to drive it down here Steve.

(I have a 240 VAC outlet available that I used for that Solectria Force electric car I once had.)

No problem getting there, but you will be stuck with me for a quite a while as I do not (yet?) own a 240 charge cord.

I'll bring a bedroll.

Steve

You could select which vessel you want to bed down on.....

[avramd]

Beau - sadly, the free super-charing for life deal is gone now. I didn't know about the referral code thing until after I had placed my order. I looked into giving my friend the credit for it, and the benefit was so lame as to not be worth the trouble. I think it was one free hour of supercharging.

[BeauV]

Beau - sadly, the free super-charing for life deal is gone now. I didn't know about the referral code thing until after I had placed my order. I looked into giving my friend the credit for it, and the benefit was so lame as to not be worth the trouble. I think it was one free hour of supercharging.

Bummer! Well, I guess that means we have yet another reason to keep our current cars for a looooong time.

[H B]

So, how fast would my 240v @ 30amp generator charge a Tesla or other similar electric vehicle?

[BeauV]

So, how fast would my 240v @ 30amp generator charge a Tesla or other similar electric vehicle?

I can hear my Dad saying: "How long is a piece of string?"

But, seriously, here are the variables:
1) Battery size: varies from 75 to 100-kilowatt-hours
2) Charger circuitry has a loss, assume that your generator is putting out AC, that has to be converted to DC and my memory is that conversion burns about 15% as heat, but I could be wrong. So you'll get about 25amps at the car. To normalize units, I think this source would provide 6-kilowatt per hour of charging.
3) Thus, if you had the 100-Kilowatt-hour battery you'd have 100/6=16.6 hours to charge at the full rated output for the generator.
4) But, (you knew that there would be a but) as the battery approaches full charge its ability to accept the full 6-kilowatts/hour rate will drop off, so it's probably safe to estimate that it would take about 20 hours to re-charge a 100-kilowatt-hour battery with your generator.

Someone, please check my numbers, I'm not the worlds best at this.

[Panope]

I have owned the 2013 Leaf for two weeks. I drive it to town and back once per day. Round trip is about 15 miles.

Each round trip to town consumes 20% of the battery capacity.

I have set the onboard charger to limit recharging at 80% (to increase battery longevity).

I plug in the car every other day for an overnight charge using the level 1 (120V normal house plug) power cord. This means the battery will almost always remain between 80% and 40% charge.

Other than an alleged efficiency increase, I have little reason to install a level 2 charge port at home (240V).

The car appears to be perfectly suited for my use. It will even haul several anchors!

Steve

Edit: P.S.

Yesterday, I used my wife's Prius to pick up a donated Rocna 45lb. anchor. Round trip was 160 miles.

[BeauV]

Steve,

My lovely Admiral and I were just chatting about how great E-cars are for 95% of what we do - around town driving. We have the good luck to be able to keep a Ford SUV in reserve for hauling boats, trailers, etc... but it really doesn't move out of the driveway unless the Admiral and one of our kids have made off with both E-cars. I'll be plowing through the bills paid this year and comparing them to prior years. Each time we've bought an E-car our gasoline consumption has dropped. With the COVID lockdown, so far we've only filled the Ford SUV up 5 times since March 1st. The year over year change will be astounding.

If you're not using the extreme version of the Leaf's regenerative braking, I'd strongly recommend it. Over the almost 50,000 miles we've put on the Tesla-S we have never had to replace any part of the braking system. On our prior sedan (MBZ S-class beast) we needed new rotors and pads every 20k miles, for the gasp-worthy price of about $2,000. So far, the total maintenance bills on the Model-S not covered under warranty have been re-gluing a loose gasket around the sunroof for $35, windshield wipers (3 sets at $30 each), and tires (4 tires at $350 ea). Despite a very similar weight, the Model-S eats tires a lot less than the MBZ did. I've no idea why.

[Steele]

I am becoming enamored with the new electric mini. Range is limited at 110 miles, but that would be fine for most of our driving. The mid level model has lots of nice features at 35K. They still qualify for the $7500 federal credit, and a state sales tax rebate worth around $3000. All the reviews state it is the best driving of the lower cost e-cars, and at under 25K for a brand new one with a full warranty it seems like a deal, at least compared to other new cars electric or otherwise. I often buy used, but it will be a long time before they are available on the used market, and there would be no tax credits. The Seattle dealer is in my neighborhood so I might need to take a look. The one they have has goofy wheels and lime green trim, but it looks like there are better looking options.

[H B]

Thanks, Beau.it was a bit of a rhetorical question, but I appreciate the math. I have a 7K generator which I bought after Hurricane Irene (2011) left us without power for over a week. I have never actually needed it to run house loads..my 'new-to-me' house does not have a generator panel like I installed in my old house. I'd be running extension cords all over for essentials, but I do have city water and sewer here in the new dwelling, and the main reason at the last house for the 240V generator was to run the damn well pump to flush the toilets after we emptied the bathtubs.

Next question, and I will mention that I am all over reducing fossil fuel use.

What do we think the electrical grid power generation ratio is ..nuclear, solar, coal, gas? A local line worker for my power company told me the biggest loss was in line transmission. We are still using fossil fuels to generate electricity, right? (yes, I know we are..) Is the power being fed into an e-car more or less BTUs to the mile than what you get out of a gallon of petrol?

Here is what I am really getting at....If $3.00 worth of gas gets me 30 miles in my Civic Si, would $3.00 worth of electricity get me 30 miles in a Tesla, or Leaf, or Prius???

[BeauV]

HB, I have to do some research on “line loss”. It is certainly a factor, but figuring out the incremental line loss of adding an electric car to an existing system isn’t trivial. You can’t just take the average.

Also, the cost of running an e-car vs a gas or diesel is not just the cost of fuel. One has to calculate the energy required to build, maintain, and obviously fuel both types. Many folks leave a lot of that out because it’s hard.

EG: what is the energy cost of replacing brakes 6 times as often on a gas car of the same class? I don’t know. But it is certainly not zero. What is the total cost of disposing of lube oil every 3000 miles? Again I don’t know, but it ain’t zero. Etc....

[avramd]

Beau,

I think it might have been a different thread where you warned me about the tongue weight restrictions on the Tesla Model Y - but I dug into it, and this seemed to be the place to post what I found. The result is "fascinating" in the "As much as I love Tesla, so much of what they do doesn't make any sense..." I couldn't get a straight answer to the question about tongue-weight, so their chat-help agent sent me the manual. Here is what it says about towing limits:

modely-tongue-weight.png

A couple things jump out at me as bizarre here:

• Only the middle tire/wheels size (20") has different restrictions
• ... and then only with 4 passengers. If you go big or small, or carry <= 3 people, you're good
• what an inconceivable restriction - are the wheels themselves just under-built?
• In all cases, the tongue-weight limit is exactly 10% of the towing limit. This suggests that one of these limits is a function of the other, and not a direct limit in its own right. It makes me wonder if they aren't really too worried about the car being able to handle the extra load, but rather how it will handle.
• What an outrageously complex chart just to say *Note: with 20" wheels and 4 passengers, these are the restrictions...

In other news, Model Y's are now showing up on Tesla's used cars page! And bizarrely, all 7 of the used Model Y's available in the US have the Full Self Driving Computer option... And most have under 1000 miles. It smells a lot to me like people are unhappy with the performance of a $10,000 option, and are exercising Tesla's 7-day return policy to "get their money back" for a gimmick that they regretted.

[Panope]

If a vehicle is rated for towing/hauling X number of pounds at 70 miles per hour, I feel the rating can be increased with lower speed.

I reckon the legal system disagrees with my logic.

How far and how fast do you need to travel?

[TheOffice]

Steve,

The strain comes from getting up to 70 and slowing down. Maintaining speed is the easy part. I'm sure you could tow more than the rating, but wear and tear become excessive.

I can't believe the explosion in Tesla's stock price. Even after JP Morgan valued it at $90 it is at $600.

There have got to be better places to invest in EVs. Perhaps the charging companies? VW? GM Ford and Toyota are finally getting close to having mass market EVs, but they are still a couple years away.

Joel

[BeauV]

I agree. Tesla is not a good investment now.

I would be amazed if the big car manufacturers catch Tesla's total product feature set within two years. Please keep in mind that most Tesla owners aren't buying it solely because it's electric. To understand, you have to spend some time in one. There's the performance, which is crazy good. The way the electronics are built, which is entirely different from a "regular car" and appeals to folks who grew up on an iPhone. Then there's the sparse open feel to the cars, especially on the newer models.

The big car companies have to reassess what the customer's want, especially in the User Interface and dashboard design. That will take a decade for them to figure out.

[TheOffice]

I agree. Tesla is not a good investment now.

I would be amazed if the big car manufacturers catch Tesla's total product feature set within two years. Please keep in mind that most Tesla owners aren't buying it solely because it's electric. To understand, you have to spend some time in one. There's the performance, which is crazy good. The way the electronics are built, which is entirely different from a "regular car" and appeals to folks who grew up on an iPhone. Then there's the sparse open feel to the cars, especially on the newer models.

The big car companies have to reassess what the customer's want, especially in the User Interface and dashboard design. That will take a decade for them to figure out.

Beau,

I've only spent 30 minutes in a Model S. Yes, it is WAY different from any ICE vehicle and way ahead of them. The new VWs have come a long way in a short time. The ID3 is outselling Tesla in Europe. From what I've read, the software is good, but not close to Tesla's, but is getting better with each release. The switch has caused lots of turmoil in upper management. I agree GM and Ford are and will remain behind the curve. I'm confident that my GLI will be my last ICE car. I've only driven 5,000 miles since March, so it should last a while!

Joel

[BeauV]

I agree. Tesla is not a good investment now.

I would be amazed if the big car manufacturers catch Tesla's total product feature set within two years. Please keep in mind that most Tesla owners aren't buying it solely because it's electric. To understand, you have to spend some time in one. There's the performance, which is crazy good. The way the electronics are built, which is entirely different from a "regular car" and appeals to folks who grew up on an iPhone. Then there's the sparse open feel to the cars, especially on the newer models.

The big car companies have to reassess what the customer's want, especially in the User Interface and dashboard design. That will take a decade for them to figure out.

Beau,

I've only spent 30 minutes in a Model S. Yes, it is WAY different from any ICE vehicle and way ahead of them. The new VWs have come a long way in a short time. The ID3 is outselling Tesla in Europe. From what I've read, the software is good, but not close to Tesla's, but is getting better with each release. The switch has caused lots of turmoil in upper management. I agree GM and Ford are and will remain behind the curve. I'm confident that my GLI will be my last ICE car. I've only driven 5,000 miles since March, so it should last a while!

Joel

I think VW is probably the leader of all the followers. But, all it takes is one look a the dashboard to realize how little they understand the difference. I am certain that there are lots of customers who would say they prefrer a zillion switches and a center console which takes up 35% of the space in the front of the car, but those folks probably haven't ever used a car without all that clutter. Porsche clearly doesn't get it yet.

[TheOffice]

Beau,

VW/Porsche/Audi is trying to make advances in the powertrain while making familiar interiors. Different strategy.

[kdh]

Beau, that "dash wart," the stopwatch, is completely useless to just about everyone. Pissed me off on my 997. My 991 doesn't have it.

[BeauV]

Beau,

VW/Porsche/Audi is trying to make advances in the powertrain while making familiar interiors. Different strategy.

Oh, I understand the strategy. I just think it's wrong for the demographic that wants a state-of-the-art electric car. This is typical of established market leaders, they don't seem to understand what happens when their customers migrate away. I don't have the hard data, but my estimate is that the average Tesla owner is a full generation younger than the average Porsche owner. This is particularly true when comparing Model-S with Panamera owners. I sit on the freeway watching other folks and almsot all the Tesla owners are substantially younger than I am (69 years) and many of the Panamera drivers are celarly a lot older than me.

There is a similar massive disconnect between BMW and the Tesla Model 3 and Y. The owner base is almsot two full generations (30 years) different. literally thousands of 20-somethings are buying the low-cost Tesla and here in CA it has almost obliterated the sales of BMW 2, 3, and 4 series cars. It isn't solely because of Tesla, but over the last the last three years BMW sales of 2 series cars has dropped by 50%, the 3 series has dropped by 60%, and the 4 series has dropped by 50%. As someone who has owned many M3 coupes, I find this very sad. But first they let Bangle bungle the styling, then they blew up the brand by making a M2, M3, M4 etc... and who wants a 4-door sedan as a sports coupe?

[Olaf Hart]

So would it make sense to have a core platform, and different interfaces?

I am hanging out to see the electric Kombi, I hope it is clean and basic inside, like the early ones...