Conoravirus ...

[Jamie]

Aren't you all lucky. I live here in freedumland Floriduh. Everything is open for business. Apps? So that the tech giant can trace my every move? Shirley you are joking.

[TheOffice]

Aren't you all lucky. I live here in freedumland Floriduh. Everything is open for business. Apps? So that the tech giant can trace my every move? Shirley you are joking.

Jamie, we are supposed to go to Marathon Key next month. Would that be stupid?

[Jamie]

Aren't you all lucky. I live here in freedumland Floriduh. Everything is open for business. Apps? So that the tech giant can trace my every move? Shirley you are joking.

Jamie, we are supposed to go to Marathon Key next month. Would that be stupid?

Well, Florida COVID rates have seen a significant consistent increase since it was opened for business and...

“Absolutely, there is an underreporting of cases in the state of Florida,” said Dr. Aileen Marty, a professor of infectious diseases at Florida International University.

And

https://www.wfla.com/community/health/c ... -cdc-says/

And they are investigating cases because they feel that COVID deaths are being overreported.

My mom wants us to go to Maine for Christmas. I live very safely, but I'm very also concerned about traveling.

[BeauV]

I loaded it. No alarms so far.

None here yet....

My risk is so low that I expect few pings. I go to work, where everyone is supposed to get tested once a week and there’s been virtually no transmission, to the commissary once a week, and on the occasional group ride (until last weekend when a guy tested +).

Well, I enabled it so we’ll see what happens.

I enabled the same thing at least two months ago here in CA. The State still hasn't figured out how to use the data. Our local university (UCSC) has been using it and is providing feedback to the State on its effects. So far, there haven't been enough cases at the university to have it be useful.

Clearly, this disease travels in clusters around groups of people who don't mask-up, live in tight quarters, or do really dumb things like singing or weight lifting together. Over 95% of the infections in our area are one of these three transmission modes. As a result, it's pretty trivial to figure out what's safe and what isn't. Our local Gym managed to provide 15% of the total number of infections within a week of re-opening with "safety measures" in place. Similar results from churches. But the big problem is clearly folks living in group homes (skilled nursing, assisted living, etc...)

[Olaf Hart]

Interesting

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-03/ ... n/12939202

[Benno von Humpback]

Interesting

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-03/ ... n/12939202

It would not surprise my obsessive friend Mark Levine

https://www.niddk.nih.gov/about-niddk/staff-directory/biography/levine-mark

[BeauV]

Interesting

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-03/ ... n/12939202

OH,

This is quite interesting. Obviously, these doctors are radically changing the PH of the patient's blood. I wonder if the increased acidity is the agent that causes the improvement. Of course, I also wonder if there will ever be more than one or two folks who respond this way. I'm always leery of basing anything on a small number of samples. However, if it doesn't' damage the patient, there should be plenty of folks to try it out on this winter.

[Olaf Hart]

It’s not clear whether the effect, if it happened, was on the COVID or the sepsis, which presumably is secondary bacterial infection in the bloodstream.

Reassuring that they are following up with a double blind study, it’s being sorted out the right way.

I love this left field stuff, it’s surprising how many significant medical discoveries are the result of serendipity, not research programs.

[BeauV]

It’s not clear whether the effect, if it happened, was on the COVID or the sepsis, which presumably is secondary bacterial infection in the bloodstream.

Reassuring that they are following up with a double blind study, it’s being sorted out the right way.

I love this left field stuff, it’s surprising how many significant medical discoveries are the result of serendipity, not research programs.

I sent the article to a good friend at UCSF and his response was exactly like yours. To the effect that it might work, so let's do the research to see if it really does work. I agree. It appears that medicine is like many other scientific fields, tracking down an anomaly often leads to big breakthroughs.

BTW, my UCSF buddy thinks the article is misusing the language in an important way:

"Unfortunately, sepsis isn't a "disease" as it is called in this article. It is a "syndrome" usually related to bacteria entering the bloodstream.
"Viremia" is a syndrome that we've all experienced at the onset of a galloping viral disease like influenza. COVID starts the same way with fever, aches, etc."

He cautions me to get the language right to avoid muddling up the causality.

[SemiSalt]

Interesting

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-03/ ... n/12939202

Paging Linus Pauling.

https://www.health.harvard.edu/newslett ... us_pauling

[Benno von Humpback]

Yeah, but don't start taking vitamin C tablets on account of this. You need simply massive intravenous doses to get any of the interesting effects.

[BeauV]

Yeah, but don't start taking vitamin C tablets on account of this. You need simply massive intravenous doses to get any of the interesting effects.

Yes, the article points out that taking a dose this size orally will make someone very ill. My Dr. friends also point out that pouring that much acid into your stomach is right up there with drinking bleach.

[Benno von Humpback]

Interesting

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-03/ ... n/12939202

OH,

This is quite interesting. Obviously, these doctors are radically changing the PH of the patient's blood. I wonder if the increased acidity is the agent that causes the improvement. Of course, I also wonder if there will ever be more than one or two folks who respond this way. I'm always leery of basing anything on a small number of samples. However, if it doesn't' damage the patient, there should be plenty of folks to try it out on this winter.

Respiratory failure causes CO2 retention and a drop in blood pH, so if that were the mechanism, pneumonia would cure itself. Acidosis is not a good thing.

[BeauV]

Interesting

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-03/ ... n/12939202

OH,

This is quite interesting. Obviously, these doctors are radically changing the PH of the patient's blood. I wonder if the increased acidity is the agent that causes the improvement. Of course, I also wonder if there will ever be more than one or two folks who respond this way. I'm always leery of basing anything on a small number of samples. However, if it doesn't' damage the patient, there should be plenty of folks to try it out on this winter.

Respiratory failure causes CO2 retention and a drop in blood pH, so if that were the mechanism, pneumonia would cure itself. Acidosis is not a good thing.

Ah, well you're all lucky I'm not a doctor. It will be interesting to see if this proves to work and what the mechanism turns out to be.

[BeauV]

Our Governor has come up with what seems to me to be a completely rational approach to shut-downs of activities. If your area has less than 15% empty beds in the Critical Care Unit and ICU, then you are shutdown. No reference to testing, no reference to positivity, none of that stuff. This is entirely based upon having at least 15% empty beds so that we don't overwhelm the hospital.

The result of this order is that almost the entire State of CA will go into shutdown quite soon. The SF Bay area (including Santa Cruz) will probably get to stay open until mid-December given the current rate of increase in cases that require hospitalization. But, I'm guessing we will be in total shut-down before Christmas as a result of the wave of cases we're going to see following crazy people doing crazy things over the Thanksgiving holidays. What is keeping us open is the happy accident of having UCSF Medical, Zukaberg General Hospital, Standford, and a dozen other hospitals in our area. If we had a more typical number of beds, we'd be shut down too.

What I like about this is that it is entirely based on preserving the medical system and thereby allowing them to keep people alive. All the other metrics are too complex for folks to understand. As a result, when they don't understand it, then they feel free to make up nonsensical reasons why they can ignore the metric.

Governor's order described here.

Then, I heard from a good friend at USCF Medical that their best brains have attempted to predict when vaccines will allow us to get back to normal. Here are the forecasts.

I've extracted the graph for those who may not be able to access the SF Gate web site.



Basically, it says that we'll reach "herd immunity" due to the vaccine in September. Note, if we wait for "herd immunity" by having folks get sick and then recover we'll end up with many hundreds of thousands of Americans dead.

The article is HERE.

[BeauV]

Sad news: A dear cousin who lives in Iowa just lost her 38-year-old daughter to COVID + a vascular disease. Because on-demand testing is not available to her, she is now holed up in her home alone at age 70, having lost her husband last year to a heart attack. Her daughter had been coughing for about 5 days and was found unresponsive on her bed then declared dead at the hospital Emergency Department.

I grew up with this cousin, we shared babysitting duties for my much younger brother and her younger four sisters. We might as well have been siblings.

Please be careful. It now appears that the surge in infections caused by Thanksgiving is subsiding just slightly, although not here in Califorinia. Of course, tens of thousands of crazy folks are in the middle of gathering together to celebrate Christmas and New Years and infect each other. I'm certain they don't intend to infect their loved ones, but that's what has happened over Thanksgiving and it's most likely happening right now. Sigh.

[avramd]

I'm late to this thread, so I apologize if this has been covered. What experience do people here have with false-positive coronavirus tests? My roommate last week tested negative on Tuesday, positive on Thursday, and then negative again on Sunday - these are all PCR tests. My chiropractor also got a positive PCR test, and then a negative one the next day, although that might have been rapid.

I think I've heard a few other similar stories, people testing positive and then negative very shortly after. I'm wondering if these PCR tests have a high false positive rate.

Beau, I am so sorry for your loss. 38, that is just crazy-making. My neighbor who I got it from back in March did not make it. She did not have any particular underlying symptoms, but she was 74. She was a little weak physically, and had some arthritis, that is it. She was my closest friend in Newport, I'm still figuring out how to have a social life without her here.

[BeauV]

Avramd, this disease is starting to leave big holes in my life. I'm probably overly friendly and have collected a large number of friends over the years. Fellow LinkedIn members tease me about it. But this disease is cruel. It not only kills hundreds of thousands of us, but it also does so in an ugly ugly way. At least my cousin's daughter went fast. Others have lingered for weeks... alone.

Regarding false-positive tests for COVID-19 using PCR, it is highly unlikely that these are false positives. What is much more likely is that the negative tests are false-negatives. There is a good discussion about this from MIT here. As this article from Johns Hopkins describes, the number of false-negatives in pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic carriers of the disease is substantial. Various studies have found false-negative results from 18 to 22 percent.

The uniform recommendation from the medical community, as I read it, is that if you get any positive PCR test that person should quarantine for 14 days. A negative PCR test the day after a positive one is particularly suspicious.

[TheOffice]

There is a 38% false negative rate.assume it’s wrong.

[Olaf Hart]

There is a 38% false negative rate.assume it’s wrong.

A rate that high suggests there is a problem with timing of the tests, perhaps too soon...

My impression is that clinicians are diagnosing this thing from the symptoms, and using the test as a backup.

Down here you have to quarantine till the result comes back, may not be long enough...

Anecdotally, a lot of USA folks seem to be managing this thing themselves without testing, so the incidence rates may be a lot lower than the actual number of cases.

[Benno von Humpback]

Just got my first dose of the Moderna vaccine today. The national rollout is pitifully slow and haphazard. Guy I know in Dallas just drone down to the acute care joint and got his shot, while it looks like long-suffering spouse will wait weeks or months. Hope everyone is staying safe and gets he shot ASAP.

[LarryHoward]

There is a 38% false negative rate.assume it’s wrong.

A rate that high suggests there is a problem with timing of the tests, perhaps too soon...

My impression is that clinicians are diagnosing this thing from the symptoms, and using the test as a backup.

Down here you have to quarantine till the result comes back, may not be long enough...

Anecdotally, a lot of USA folks seem to be managing this thing themselves without testing, so the incidence rates may be a lot lower than the actual number of cases.

A number of states are requiring tests after travel out of the state or region. Most recommend self quarantine until results are available. As you note, the longest that I am aware of is NY with a test 4 days after return to the state. That’s marginal for a positive. Then add in a 2-6 day wait from test to results (PCR) and the mass testing we are doing probably is of limited use. No real data on a positive result after a negative so hard to tell. The NY HQ of my business requires an antigen negative for any out of state employees and all visitors. So far, we have not had to turn away anyone (zero) but have had 6-8 positives (about 4 last spring and 4 in the last 6 weeks). With many office workers remote and enforcing masks and distancing, 4 recent out of less than 100 people present in 300,000 sq ft of facilities is a concern. No evidence of internal spread but contact tracing has not turned up the sources.

With slow test results and lots of doubters locally, it’s hard for a business to stay open and require unpaid quarantine for anyone potentially exposed.

[kimbottles]

So far I have had three negatives. Various doctors required me tested before allowing me into some of my treatment centers. The last test was Dec 8th so I could get my chemo port removed. (Glad to have that apparatus out of my chest.)

I have been pretty much isolated since February.

[avramd]

My understanding is that it is only the rapid tests that have that high false negative rate. Haven't read Beau's link above yet though. Donating plasma as I type this

[SemiSalt]

I got my first dose of the Pfizer vaccine today, courtesy of the VA.

[kimbottles]

Susan and I got our first doses yesterday, Feb 13 scheduled for next doses.

[BeauV]

Congrats guys!! CA just shifted to vaccinating everyone over 65, but only after the First Responders, Medical Professionals, and a few "key" people who are your typical political folks. The only problems is we don't have near enough vaccine for the first two categories, let alone any old buggers like me.

[Tigger]

FWIW, here's the plan for BC ... it'll be a while before it reaches the likes of myself and Elizabeth.

First groups for vaccination
The first groups to get vaccinated between December and February:

Residents, staff and essential visitors to long-term care and assisted-living residences
Individuals in hospital or community awaiting a long-term care placement
Health care workers providing care for COVID-19 patients in settings like Intensive Care Units, emergency departments, medical/surgical units and paramedics
Remote and isolated Indigenous communities
From February to March, the immunization program will expand:

Community-based seniors, age 80 and above
Indigenous (First Nations, Métis and Inuit) seniors, age 65 and above
Indigenous elders
People experiencing homelessness and/or using shelters
Provincial correctional facilities
Adults in group homes or mental health residential care
Long term home support recipients and staff
Hospital staff, community GPs and medical specialists
Other Indigenous communities not vaccinated in first priority group

[H B]

I know three people that have been vaccinated.
My friend down the street that runs the local raisin farm (old folks home) just got her 2nd shot.
A high school friend that is a nurse just got her 2nd shot this week.
My 81-year old step father just got his first shot in a drive-thru at the local Volunteer Fire House. Our local area is starting the 1B people, which at his age I guess he falls in to.

Our county allowed us 'normal' people to pre-register, but said our turn may still be months away.

[JoeP]

Washington state just moved my group up (65+) so I will be getting my first shot on Monday.