Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

[BeauV]

I think that this is a difficult time for traditional car manufacturers. The user-interface on the dash is being attacked by Apple CarPlay, Android, and Tesla. The power train is being attacked by Tesla and others building E-cars, the customers were starting to use ride-share and car-share in massive numbers (and avoiding buying cars) before the pandemic and will certainly return to that in massive numbers after the pandemic is over.....

In the end, the auto industry will be wildly different from what it is now.

That will cause the death of multiple car companies and the birth or transformation of many more.

[SemiSalt]

A month or so ago, there were car ads running around here that cited some new Apple software as a primary selling point. Selling the dashboard, not the car!

[kdh]

I think that this is a difficult time for traditional car manufacturers. The user-interface on the dash is being attacked by Apple CarPlay, Android, and Tesla. The power train is being attacked by Tesla and others building E-cars, the customers were starting to use ride-share and car-share in massive numbers (and avoiding buying cars) before the pandemic and will certainly return to that in massive numbers after the pandemic is over.....

In the end, the auto industry will be wildly different from what it is now.

That will cause the death of multiple car companies and the birth or transformation of many more.

We were supposed to have a million Teslas on the road this year driving themselves around. Uber just basically gave up on self driving.

Meanwhile, I like the silence of electric drivetrains. I've never understood all the fuss about sound on the Ferrari board I visit even while Ferrari are designing hybrids.

[BeauV]

I think that this is a difficult time for traditional car manufacturers. The user-interface on the dash is being attacked by Apple CarPlay, Android, and Tesla. The power train is being attacked by Tesla and others building E-cars, the customers were starting to use ride-share and car-share in massive numbers (and avoiding buying cars) before the pandemic and will certainly return to that in massive numbers after the pandemic is over.....

In the end, the auto industry will be wildly different from what it is now.

That will cause the death of multiple car companies and the birth or transformation of many more.

We were supposed to have a million Teslas on the road this year driving themselves around. Uber just basically gave up on self driving.

Meanwhile, I like the silence of electric drivetrains. I've never understood all the fuss about sound on the Ferrari board I visit even while Ferrari are designing hybrids.

Elon is incapable of making an accurate prediction about anything. There are some who believe that this is a standard characteristic of leaders like this, and my experience is that many entrepreneurial leaders make absurd predictions and fail to meet them repeatedly. In the process of doing this and pushing people to accomplish impossible goals, those leaders end up sorting through the team. Anyone unwilling to die on the hill of an absurd goal is pushed out. That leaves a team of folks who will try anything and damn near die trying. It results in a pretty amazing team. The flip side is a saying I've used many times: "No one ever built a great company by accomplishing every one of their goals." (The goals were too easy.)

I completely agree about the noise. I used to like loud cars, but I got over it in my 30s and was THRILLED to drive a nearly silent car. My lovely Admiral likes the low-profile wide tires and large diameter wheels. If it were up to me, I'd have the quietest tires I could find. The jacked-up trucks and SUVs howling down the interstate on mud tires are a paragon of stupidity, in my opinion.

[TheOffice]

Beau,

I'm not one to drink the Kool-Aid. I'd look at the goal and 'he's f-ing nuts'. On the other hand, tell me I am not capable of doing something and I will prove you wrong.
Joel

[avramd]

I can't believe the explosion in Tesla's stock price. Even after JP Morgan valued it at $90 it is at $600.

Well, that only tells us that executives at JP Morgan are shorting it. They should get a pair of these

[avramd]

If a vehicle is rated for towing/hauling X number of pounds at 70 miles per hour, I feel the rating can be increased with lower speed.

I reckon the legal system disagrees with my logic.

How far and how fast do you need to travel?

To directly answer your question, the only "known" use I have is to haul a Corsair Trimaran up a ramp and then maybe 1000 feet to where it is stored for the winter. However, I'd sure like to be able to to tow it to the Outer Banks or FL Keys and cruise for a week there for example. But here's why I get into the nitty gritty about stated vs observed towing capacities:

My 2009 Outback is "rated" at 2700 lbs towing capacity. My F24 is "rated" at 1700 lbs. We figure the trailer is 1000, and that I have 300 lbs of crap on the boat. So, I'm 10% over. I towed it 20 miles (10 out & back) at 45 mph, and blew out a pair of 1 year old rear shocks. I also moved it around the yard a few times after that, and together with that 20 mile tow, I overheated and cracked the throwout fork on a 2 year old clutch. And believe me, when I did that 20 mile tow, I was EXCRUCIATINGLY gentle. I was. The roads in Newport were not. I never went above 45 mph, and probably averaged 30 mph for the trip.

I do think that Subaru pushes the limits on "duty" claims, and does not overbuild like other manufacturers do. I also think there is only a cosmetic difference between an Outback and a Legacy, and that one of those cosmetic differences is the increased towing capacity stated in the manual. I do think I'll end up getting a Model Y. The question is, does Tesla also push the limits on duty claims.

[BeauV]

We did buy a SUV to pull a heavy trailer. But, only after we looked at the calendar and realized that in a normal year we would use it about 30 times. If it had been less than 12 times, we would have just rented a truck to pull the trailer when we needed it.

[Jamie]

The sedan market in the US is basically dead. Ah...I mourn for the death of my beloved station wagon....so much better than some SUV or CUV. But for as long as I have been reading magazines the best selling vehicle in the US has been the F-150. That's the product that has the best margins and gets all the R&D spend. If the new entrants are to kill off the traditional mfg, at least in the US, that's the market they need to win. It will be interesting to watch the evolution of hybrids like the F-150 Powerboost. My trendy neighbors in PDX all owned an EV and some kind of vintage pickup.

[BeauV]

Jamie,

I think the F-150 pickup truck will be the LAST vehicle to be replaced by an electric-powered truck. I base this opinion on my reading about the average customer for the F-150. It is only very rarely a person who uses the truck as a truck. Rather, well over 80% of the F-150 buyers are male and interested in making a statement about their masculinity. (Source: Autoweek in an article two or three years ago which resulted in more complaining from male F-150 owners than any other article ever. Thereby confirming the author was right, these guys need a truck to assuage their insecurities.)

I have two of them in my family, both are sales guys who drive a LOT. Yet, they are bumping around in an F-150 with oversized tires and when I ask them to borrow it to haul some gravel instead they loan me a dump trailer which they've come together and bought so that their trucks won't get dirty. Sigh....

I can't lay my hands on the data at the moment, but I believe that profit margins on the low-end F-150 is actually quite low. There Ford competes for commercial customers who aren't fruit-cakes about the brand, but want a reliable and inexpensive truck to get all "dirty". However, the profits skyrocket as you add $1,500 sun roofs and other fancy trim no working truck would ever have. On a fully-line basis, I believe that the Expedition is the most profitable product (along with its Chevy twin the Suburban).

It is rather amazing that Ford won't be building sedans and station wagon. I'd pay a LOT more for a full-size station wagon that had the same drive train as the Expidition, but a buddy in the car biz says that would cost me at least 25% more. The reason is simple. Those massive bodies on Expedition and Suburbans allow for very sloppy engineering. No need to make things small or light, just bolt it in. As of a couple of years ago when I pointed out that the Expedition had the aerodynamics of a loaf of Wonder bread, he said: "Get used to it. As long as men want to augment their anatomy by buying a BIGGER truck, the trucks will get bigger." He told me to look a the grill on the RAM pickup as an example.

[Jamie]

Yeah, most pickups you see are too clean to have ever done a days work. Down here in Floriduh they are the de rigueur tow vehicle for a center console (that are getting yuge!), so maybe they do some work and in PDX it was hauling organic mulch and campers/caravans. They've added a hybrid generator function - not up to contractor standard but good enough for shadetree stuff. Anyway, it's probably never wise to underestimate the ability of US car mfg to get it wrong.

In terms of car preference, it's probably safe to say we are outliers/niche market.

[TheOffice]

Jamie,

Safe to say we are outliers in many ways, from cars to choosing boats that sail!

EVs will rule pickup sales, but it will take longer to get macho men to give up their ICE vehicles.

I saw that Tesla is shutting down the S and production X lines for 18 days. Wonder if there is a re-tooling/refresh or excess inventory?

Joel

[Jamie]

No matter boats or cars, if they listen to me they'll go bankrupt quickly.
- High horsepower manual station wagons
- Offshore oriented cruisers of about 40'
- Hard sailing/rowing dinghies

I've had to roll my own to a certain extent in each case.

I think the switch away from ICE will be quick-ish even for pickups. But I'm thinking the mainline mfgs might be in a better position to compete than in sedans.

[kdh]

No matter boats or cars, if they listen to me they'll go bankrupt quickly.
- High horsepower manual station wagons
- Offshore oriented cruisers of about 40'
- Hard sailing/rowing dinghies

I've had to roll my own to a certain extent in each case.

I think the switch away from ICE will be quick-ish even for pickups. But I'm thinking the mainline mfgs might be in a better position to compete than in sedans.

Totally with you, Jamie. I've been lusting for the new Audi RS6 wagon. Alas, I'll have to sell something first.

https://www.caranddriver.com/audi/rs6-avant

[Jamie]

No matter boats or cars, if they listen to me they'll go bankrupt quickly.
- High horsepower manual station wagons
- Offshore oriented cruisers of about 40'
- Hard sailing/rowing dinghies

I've had to roll my own to a certain extent in each case.

I think the switch away from ICE will be quick-ish even for pickups. But I'm thinking the mainline mfgs might be in a better position to compete than in sedans.

Totally with you, Jamie. I've been lusting for the new Audi RS6 wagon. Alas, I'll have to sell something first.

https://www.caranddriver.com/audi/rs6-avant

Oh yes! That's the one you want over the AMG alternative.

[avramd]

No matter boats or cars, if they listen to me they'll go bankrupt quickly.
- High horsepower manual station wagons

Amen. I went from an '00 Audi S4 v6 turbo manual sedan (before the Avant was imported), to an '04 S4 v8 manual Avant (aka wagon) to a regular A4 manual Avant to a Subaru Outback XT manual wagon. That is what I drive now, and AFAICT, except maybe for a BMW 3-series, there are no longer performance manual wagons available in the US. Ironically, the real fundamental reason I want to switch to a Model Y is that if I can't get a manual performance wagon any more, then I want one that has only one gear in the first place.

Sadly, I actually had Audi buy that v8 S4 wagon back from me using the lemon law. Audi and Bosch put such invasive programming into its drive by wire throttle that basically nobody in the first year they came out could accelerate smoothly. They all thought "I guess this is just too much car for me." I knew something smelled wrong when I took it to winter-driving school, where I had dominated in the previous S4. With the new one, I basically looked like the worst driver there. The engine simply did not do what you told it to do. It was in a constant state of trying to either save you from yourself, or save their warranty budget from you. So I started collecting data from the OBD-II, and I went to Audi with hard proof that the throttle was doing nothing like what the driver was asking for via the accelerator.

In fact, I even showed them hard proof that the bogus "Unintended Acceleration" claims from back in the 80's were in fact real now, and fairly easy to demonstrate. They did not actually make me sue them, they just accepted the lemon-law buyback formula and wrote me a check.

[BeauV]

I tried to get one of my lovely daughters to buy the RS6 wagon, they just laughed! “Dad, no one drives a wagon if they’re under 50!”

[Tigger]

Station Wagons are perfect vehicles for harp moving (and carrying sails to and fro). It's why Elizabeth's car is a Prius V.

[TheOffice]

My BMW convertible was great for moving sails unless it was raining. Lower the top. plop it into the back seat.

[BeauV]

We've discovered that the Tesla-S is great for hauling stuff. The rear seats fold down and the modesty panel comes out. I can put the Spinnaker, Gollywobbler, Genoa and Fisherman Staysail in the back of the car. Our Ford Expedition holds more, but not by a lot. I was quite surprised.

[H B]

I tried to get one of my lovely daughters to buy the RS6 wagon, they just laughed! “Dad, no one drives a wagon if they’re under 50!”

When we were looking for a car last, we got a slightly used 2007 Audi A4 sedan. I asked my wife if she wanted the Avant..at the time, she said "No way!", but I think if we did it again after the way we've used it, she would have looked for a Quattro wagon. I did talk her into buying her first manual trans after I taught her how to drive one finally. Given how we've turned her A4 into a pack mule, the RS6 would be a stellar car for her now..., except she has already skipped up to wanting the Q7 next!

[avramd]

Hey Y'all,

Thought you all might be interested to know that I've "pulled the trigger" on a Model Y. In my peculiar case though, it's more like I've told them to pull the trigger, and they've supposedly given that message to the person who has access to the trigger, so it's not "real" yet.

I ordered one over a year ago. They were ready to deliver one to me in June, but I deferred it due to financial uncertainty w/rt the pandemic. I have an accepted offer on my rental house now, and the buyer is super-committed, so I'm going for it.

[LarryHoward]

Hey Y'all,

Thought you all might be interested to know that I've "pulled the trigger" on a Model Y. In my peculiar case though, it's more like I've told them to pull the trigger, and they've supposedly given that message to the person who has access to the trigger, so it's not "real" yet.

I ordered one over a year ago. They were ready to deliver one to me in June, but I deferred it due to financial uncertainty w/rt the pandemic. I have an accepted offer on my rental house now, and the buyer is super-committed, so I'm going for it.

Please document your impressions and experience. It’s on our list to maybe replace Lynne’s Soccer mom 2006 AWD Sienna. We have a history of buying and holding until it’s time to donate and the 15 YO Sienna with 146K miles is the next vehicle to roll over.

Friend’s daughter just took a job in Manhattan and is selling her 2019 Subaru Outback. Lynne tried it last weekend. It’s available at a good price but isn’t quite right for her to buy and I’d like to get an EV for the next car. Car and Driver was not kind to the Model Y from a handling standpoint in that they didn’t feel they got the dynamics quite right but they have an obvious bias.

[TheOffice]

Larry,

I rented an Outback a couple years ago. Seemed to be very nose heavy and didn't corner well. Of course, I was driving a BMW 328 at the time.

Probably good to have waited on the Y. The fit and finish issues should be resolved. Looking forward to a full review!

The new Nissan Arriya is not getting good reviews for its handling. Too bad, because Nissan needed a home run to survive. Loved my 89 Maxima.

[LarryHoward]

Larry,

I rented an Outback a couple years ago. Seemed to be very nose heavy and didn't corner well. Of course, I was driving a BMW 328 at the time.

Probably good to have waited on the Y. The fit and finish issues should be resolved. Looking forward to a full review!

The new Nissan Arriya is not getting good reviews for its handling. Too bad, because Nissan needed a home run to survive. Loved my 89 Maxima.

Lynne has her S2000 for fun and really likes my Macan S but her practical side puts her into wanting something to go the the garden store, haul a bunch of people, move stuff around. She has a posse of friends that share entertaining supplies so it seems I’m always called on to move folding tables, chairs, serving pieces, etc from place to place. We literally have an Amish shed full of that stuff.

This outback has light colored fabric seats (dirt magnets when she hauls plants), no third row (what happens when family visit?) and the NA 4 is fairly anemic in response at highway speeds. Other than that, it’s fine for commuting and grocery runs. She seems to have picked up a lead foot from me and our son who has a 911. I figure a model Y might work for her and I keep telling her we can rent a minivan when we need 7-8 passenger seating.

[Jamie]

Subaru seems to have a deep fear of grandma's getting into snap oversteer on the on/off ramps on all models, so they come out of the box with heavy understeer that needs correction.

[avramd]

Please document your impressions and experience. It’s on our list to maybe replace Lynne’s Soccer mom 2006 AWD Sienna. We have a history of buying and holding until it’s time to donate and the 15 YO Sienna with 146K miles is the next vehicle to roll over.

Friend’s daughter just took a job in Manhattan and is selling her 2019 Subaru Outback. Lynne tried it last weekend. It’s available at a good price but isn’t quite right for her to buy and I’d like to get an EV for the next car. Car and Driver was not kind to the Model Y from a handling standpoint in that they didn’t feel they got the dynamics quite right but they have an obvious bias.

Larry,

I've done extensive test driving of the Model Y already. I can tell you that one of Tesla's tricks is the oversized wheels. The cars are quite heavy, so to get them to have handling on par w/ their competition, they use oversized wheels and absurdly low profile tires. The Y comes with either 19", 20" or 21" wheels. IMHO, the 20 & 21's completely hide the weight, steering responsiveness is excellent - very sharp. However I refused to own a car with such low profile tires b/c it takes almost nothing to pinch them and get a flat - which actually literally happened to me on my test drive. If you are accustomed to very responsive steering, the 19" has a detectable turn-in delay, but it is acceptable to me, and worth it for the extra error margin on bumpy roads.

[Steele]

When we bought our A6 we specifically avoided the sport model since it came with 20" wheels. We do a fair amount of mountain driving including into eastern BC for ski trips and having all season tires that I can also put chains on was an important feature. The Audi is all wheel drive, but I have had to chain up all wheel drive in the past (powering all 4 wheels on glare ice does not do much good). I once drove out of Pendleton Oregon over the blue mountains in winter and watched cars slide down the camber of corners on ice into the ditch, not the slope of the the pass, just the tilt of the road for corners. You can't chain up 20" wheels. I suspect you can buy 20" snow tires, but the hassle and expense did not make sense. Winter driving also involves ice heaves and potholes, and the risk of flats and wheel damage worries me.

This leads to one of my biggest concerns about an electric sportyute or pickemup truck. A local ski trip is over 100 mile round trip, the first half with 5-7 thousand feet of elevation gain, all in sub-freezing temps. I have read that even long range EVs may not make it, especially with the heater and defroster going full blast the whole time. I suspect my first e-car will be a small city vehicle, and I will keep the ICE 4 wheel drive for now.

[Panope]

I can verify that range is greatly affected by cold weather. Having to heat the cabin is part of the problem, but it is not as important as the battery itself being cold.

This is not a issue for my daily running around, but on a recent drive to my father's place, I found it necessary to suck some electrons during the visit. This drive was no problem when the temps were warmer.

Also, going uphill really sucks up the juice. The regenerative braking only gives some of it back.

Also, driving in heavy rain/standing water sucks up the juice.

I can only guess that driving in deep snow will also degrade E mileage.

I can remember plenty of ski trips where the defrost had to be on full blast on the drive home on account of all the wet cloths and steamy passengers.

For a ski trip, I'd plan for getting half the range as dry, summertime, flat land driving.

Steve

[Jamie]

Angular momentum. It’s not for nothing that race wheels are 15” and 16”. Big rims are heavy unsprung weight, slow to accelerate, less fuel efficient and have a stiffer ride due to the lower tire profile. Big rims do make the ride feel more damped because of the weight. My wife’s Jeep comes 18” rims because “off-road” but really because it’s a highway cruiser

For snow you also want a narrower tire.