Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

[avramd]

So I've put some more thought into my frustrations with using backup cameras instead of windows.

What I've realized is that I feel like the reason I am able to be so confident at parking quickly is that answering the question "Am I going to hit something?" is an instantaneous and requires no processing - there is no room for a calculation error, b/c there is no calculation.

Using backup cameras requires constantly compiling and/or interpreting information. The wide-angle lens obfuscates distance and angle, and it doesn't tell you anything about what's beside you. The Tesla has side view cameras, and other cars you can look and see what's beside you. But I have to repeatedly check three different independent information sources, and estimate what the wide-angle lens is really telling me. I'm sure I'll get better at it, but it will always take time, and there will always be extra room to make a mistake.

And even when I get really good at that, it will always be the case that the slower you go, the less damage you will cause if you screw up. I just don't see how I'll ever be able to confidently and safely park quickly in reverse again.

What's y'all's experience?

[BeauV]

First, I almost always let the Tesla park itself. It has been doing it for over 50,000 miles on one car and 25,000 on the other. No errors to date. It does both parallel and 90° parking spots flawlessly.

Second, when we got the first Tesla I drove it around backwards in a parking lot until I could do it without thinking. I now use the backup camera on the Ford SUV for the same reasons, the camera can see things that you can't see by looking out the back window or using the mirrors: things which are too low to be seen but can play hell on your bumper or undercarriage. Also, I tow a lot with the Ford and use the camera to nail the alignment of the trailer hitch quickly. Something that is basically impossible without the camera.

Finally, in addition to the backup camera you've got alarms that go off when you get close, they show and are extremely helpful.

I have noticed that this is an age related thing. My kids drive backwards at relatively high speed using only the camera, but they grew up playing video games and turning the wheel the "wrong way" while driving looking at the screen is entirely natural to them. They'd probably drive with a camera facing forward too if it was available.

[TheOffice]

I've had my VW since March. I've gotten used to the backup camera, and appreciate having the sensors and buzzer in a parking lot, but it was an adjustment. Visibility is good, but I find myself using the camera more often that the mirrors. Auto safety is one area where the government has done more good than harm.

Joel

[avramd]

Beau,

I love the parking lot suggestion, I'll definitely do that.

My car came with a full self-driving preview. I'm not entirely clear whether I will still have the self-parking feature after this preview runs out or not. I hope so, but I probably won't spring the $10k for FSD just to get self-parking.

[BeauV]

Beau,

I love the parking lot suggestion, I'll definitely do that.

My car came with a full self-driving preview. I'm not entirely clear whether I will still have the self-parking feature after this preview runs out or not. I hope so, but I probably won't spring the $10k for FSD just to get self-parking.

Sorry, can't help with that. Both our cars have the "self-driving" options, which has evolved nicely over the years but (as always) never worked as well as Elon claimed it would.

I don't have a way to get the car to tell me, but I'm estimating that over 50% of our miles driven have been using the self-driving. That's primarily because one of our cars is used for my weekly trips to San Francisco and back and the other one just gets used for short hops or trips to S. California.

[H B]

They'd probably drive with a camera facing forward too if it was available.

When we updated the sound system in my friend's Excursion (it was a group effort, since this was the tow vehicle for his J/29 & Farr 30..I did one trip to from Maryland to Key West with the stock stereo and some of the crew and I decided we must fix this problem) - Anyway, it came with two camera inputs, so we mounted one in the front grill too. It proved to be useful for pulling up and parking near things we wanted to get close to, but not hit. It wasn't quite responsive enough to use as a real aid while actually driving at only 24-30FPS, but it was fun to play with.

[avramd]

Beau,

I've only barely experimented with the self-driving on the highway so far. I can't remember if I mentioned this here, but interested in your insight. I find that it strangely seems to prefer to be as close to hard boundaries as possible and as far from soft ones as possible. As in, when I'm between a cement barrier and a dashed line, it seems to want to be mere inches from the cement, and over two feet away from the painted line in the center. When I change lanes, it stays just as far away from the paint on the other side.

Thoughts? Obviously it could just be my perspective, but I tried it on a super-wide city street we have here, and it was easily three feet from the center line and definitely within one foot of all the parked cars.

[BeauV]

Avramd,

We don't have many hard walls next to lanes here, there is typically a line on either side of the car and it tends to set itself in the middle of the lane. I have noticed that originally (3 years ago) the car kept to the exact center, but humans don't do that. We humans drift towards the inside of corners even on large 12 lane freeways with wide corners. The newer self-driving software now mimics its human driven cars around it, but moving to about 1' away from the inside of a corner and 3' from the outside. However, those observations are made on freeways with 12' wide lanes, not narrow roadways.

I will say that on an interstate highway (EG: I-280 from San Jose to San Francisco) I almost completely trust the self-driving system. I've probably done over 60,000 miles on that sort of road using the "autopilot". Zero problems. I have also done at least 20,000 miles on 2 lane country roads, which are far less well marked. On those, I pay attention and have to "take over" about once ever hour or so. This is, after all, an autopilot not a "self-driving car". Like an autopilot on a boat, it'll run you right up on the beach if you aren't carefully with what you ask it to do.

[SemiSalt]

Beau,

I've only barely experimented with the self-driving on the highway so far. I can't remember if I mentioned this here, but interested in your insight. I find that it strangely seems to prefer to be as close to hard boundaries as possible and as far from soft ones as possible. As in, when I'm between a cement barrier and a dashed line, it seems to want to be mere inches from the cement, and over two feet away from the painted line in the center. When I change lanes, it stays just as far away from the paint on the other side.

Thoughts? Obviously it could just be my perspective, but I tried it on a super-wide city street we have here, and it was easily three feet from the center line and definitely within one foot of all the parked cars.

For years, 99% of the time I was in a car, I was the driver. The small amount of time I was in the right seat, I was terrified how close to parked cars we got.

[BeauV]

Semi - when our Model-X had about 2,000 miles on it a young man opened his door into us without looking as we were passing at about 25 MPH. $7,800 dollars later our brand new Teslsa looked ... brand new again. Fortunately, he hadn't leaned out the door.

We Americans are used to pretty wide lanes. My early days driving in Italy and France were nerve-racking. Blowing though villages with stone walls 6" away on both sides. Yikes!!

[kimbottles]

For years, 99% of the time I was in a car, I was the driver. The small amount of time I was in the right seat, I was terrified how close to parked cars we got.

I am also almost always the driver because I am a lousy passenger and Susan likes having a driver at her disposal.

(This is a bit ironic because when I was on the VW sponsored SCCA Pro-Rally Team I was the co-driver (Navigator))

[kimbottles]

We Americans are used to pretty wide lanes. My early days driving in Italy and France were nerve-racking. Blowing though villages with stone walls 6" away on both sides. Yikes!!

Ireland and Scotland are like that plus you get to be on the other side of the road to boot.

[TheOffice]

Drove in rural Ireland a couple years ago. Talk about nerve-racking!

We rented an Altima with Nissan's electronics. Adaptive cruise control, lane centering were eerie at first. On a big curve on the highway the car would slow down as we approached and then resume speed. No where near FSD, but pretty cool on the highway.

[Steele]

I wonder if the Tesla is programed to stay closer to hard boundries than lines becasue it is easier to "see" with cameras thus improving accuracy overall. It also would reduce the risk of head on collisions.

My first trip to Europe was to Portugal, a pretty crazy place driving wise compared to other European contries. I have memories of rocketing through small towns in taxis as elderly walkers jumped out of the way and flatttened themselves against the sorounding walls with inches to spare.

[H B]

OK, y'all had me looking for used Teslas today on the Interwebs. Ugh...

I am trying to understand the difference between the 60, P75, P90, P90D, etc. and it seems the new models (out of my price range), are Standard Range, Performance, etc.

[avramd]

OK, y'all had me looking for used Teslas today on the Interwebs. Ugh...

I am trying to understand the difference between the 60, P75, P90, P90D, etc. and it seems the new models (out of my price range), are Standard Range, Performance, etc.

The simple answer is sorta like "just ignore the model number, and focus on the specs, namely range, dual-motor, and acceleration (if you care about that)."

I'm not the expert by far, but in older Model S lingo:

• the number is the nominal battery capacity in kwh
• P is "Performance, meaning that it has more powerful motors/acceleration
• D is "Dual Motor" meaning all-wheel drive - and also more power
• L if you see it is "Ludicrous mode" - a combo of software and monitoring to safely maximize the acceleration of a PxxD

They seem to have simplified the Model S lineup around when the Model 3 came out, b/c there was no longer a reason to make lower-cost S's. I think they all are dual-motor and have Ludicrous mode now.

[avramd]

I wonder if the Tesla is programed to stay closer to hard boundries than lines becasue it is easier to "see" with cameras thus improving accuracy overall. It also would reduce the risk of head on collisions.

My gut tells me that it is the opposite - that this was happening b/c the software was confused about what it was seeing, and did not interpret these as hard boundaries. It shows a rendering of your surroundings on the screen, including cars around you. When this was happening, the screen was not showing renderings any of the cars that it was nearly side-swiping, or the barriers.

The barriers were on the Newport Bridge, btw - the outer wall on one-side, and the moveable center lane barrier they put in recently on the other side.

[H B]

Thanks, Avram!!

[BeauV]

I wonder if the Tesla is programed to stay closer to hard boundries than lines becasue it is easier to "see" with cameras thus improving accuracy overall. It also would reduce the risk of head on collisions.

My gut tells me that it is the opposite - that this was happening b/c the software was confused about what it was seeing, and did not interpret these as hard boundaries. It shows a rendering of your surroundings on the screen, including cars around you. When this was happening, the screen was not showing renderings any of the cars that it was nearly side-swiping, or the barriers.

The barriers were on the Newport Bridge, btw - the outer wall on one-side, and the moveable center lane barrier they put in recently on the other side.

(The following is for the 2014 Model-S and 2018 Model-X - it varies depending on how many cameras your car has, when you bought it, and if you bought the most complex software options; and probably some other things I don't know about.)

Above a certain speed, the display doesn't show nearby object unless you turn on the turn-signal or have Autopilot engaged. Then, it will display things it thinks are dangerous as a red object of some sort, depending upon what it thinks the object is, or it will display the Radar image sort of thing as white, yellow, or red depending on how close it is. The car most certainly knows the wall is there, but until you tell it to try and hit the wall it doesn't bother you with an alert. Meaning it doesn't just show a wall of red all alongside the car. If you slow down a lot, to something below 10 MPH, then it'll show all the objects it understands including cars, trucks, and motorcycles. (I don't know how many objects it understands) When on autopilot, it also will show bushes in the center divider, it does it all the time for me on 19th Ave. in San Francisco.

[BeauV]

I wonder if the Tesla is programed to stay closer to hard boundries than lines becasue it is easier to "see" with cameras thus improving accuracy overall. It also would reduce the risk of head on collisions.

My gut tells me that it is the opposite - that this was happening b/c the software was confused about what it was seeing, and did not interpret these as hard boundaries. It shows a rendering of your surroundings on the screen, including cars around you. When this was happening, the screen was not showing renderings any of the cars that it was nearly side-swiping, or the barriers.

The barriers were on the Newport Bridge, btw - the outer wall on one-side, and the moveable center lane barrier they put in recently on the other side.

One other comments, the cameras are looking for lines on the road. What you'll see, in addition to little icons of trucks and motorcycles etc... are two blue lines, one on each side of the car. As per the owner's manual, if it can't find enough blue-line info it will not let you use autopilot and if it looses the lines it will demand you take over control after doing the following. (I'm repeating the manual from memory, but if you're really going to drive much with Autopilot you really should read it completely.)

- When one of the lines along the side of the road disappears the car will attempt to follow the remaining line.
- If both lines disappear and there is a vehicle ahead of you in view of the LIDAR or camera, it will briefly try to follow that vehicle. After a brief period it will demand you take control.
- On roads without lines, it will often refuse to engage or drop out of autopilot mode.
- On the movable barrier bridge (Golden Gate) it can "see" the barrier and the cars near our cars and in our experience has driven down the center of the late.

As is true of the autopilot on your boat: Only a knucklehead would use an autopilot to attempt a narrow passage through rocks. Please apply the same judgment to the car autopilot that you would to an aircraft or boat autopilot. It's called an autopilot because it really is one. It is NOT a self driving car.... yet. Indeed, maybe never.

[BeauV]

I just tested some of the above and in addition to lines on the starboard side, the Tesla is able to recognize curbs, ditches, fences, and guard rails. It does detect on-comming cars up until they are abeam, then the rear distance sensors light up with the radar signal. The two Teslas act a little differently as the newer one has a lot more cameras.

So, here's an interesting question: Do these cars actually need LIDAR? After all humans drive pretty well with just a slow up-date visual system. Would cameras which have both wide-angle and telephoto do a better job? Does it depend upon pattern matching? Why do engineers want to go to LIDAR?

[JoeP]

I just tested some of the above and in addition to lines on the starboard side, the Tesla is able to recognize curbs, ditches, fences, and guard rails. It does detect on-comming cars up until they are abeam, then the rear distance sensors light up with the radar signal. The two Teslas act a little differently as the newer one has a lot more cameras.

So, here's an interesting question: Do these cars actually need LIDAR? After all humans drive pretty well with just a slow up-date visual system. Would cameras which have both wide-angle and telephoto do a better job? Does it depend upon pattern matching? Why do engineers want to go to LIDAR?

Continuing the boat analogy I would rather have radar or better yet lidar or flir than cameras while in the fog or certain low visibility conditions.

[Jamie]

I imagine it's easier to get a high resolution digitized data stream out of LIDAR than optics

Interesting to see how some of these EVs are engineered.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r37nqfnV9EU

[kdh]

Do these cars actually need LIDAR? After all humans drive pretty well with just a slow up-date visual system. Would cameras which have both wide-angle and telephoto do a better job? Does it depend upon pattern matching? Why do engineers want to go to LIDAR?

Your argument is Elon Musk's as I've heard it. Engineers want lidar because, like radar, it resolves range. Stereo imaging can do it the way our eyes do but it's harder. Knowing the range of something is important to not hitting it.

We used to drive a Mini Clubman. We sold it when I realized that it looks too much like a mini SUV. Cars would pull out in front of us thinking we were a distant SUV rather than a close Mini.

[BeauV]

Do these cars actually need LIDAR? After all humans drive pretty well with just a slow up-date visual system. Would cameras which have both wide-angle and telephoto do a better job? Does it depend upon pattern matching? Why do engineers want to go to LIDAR?

Your argument is Elon Musk's as I've heard it. Engineers want lidar because, like radar, it resolves range. Stereo imaging can do it the way our eyes do but it's harder. Knowing the range of something is important to not hitting it.

We used to drive a Mini Clubman. We sold it when I realized that it looks too much like a mini SUV. Cars would pull out in front of us thinking we were a distant SUV rather than a close Mini.

That's pretty funny! Mistaking a Mini for a SUV that was far away!!

I get that LIDAR provides distance, but we humans don't. There isn't any stereoscopic vision for humans at a distance beyond about 6'. I read this somewhere in a medical article that provided the ability of the human eyes to resolve angles.

No, human vision estimates distance in much different ways, which are all available to cameras with the right depth of field and resolution. (Note: human visual resolution is vastly lower than a modern cell phone.) Our ability to discern distance is based on reading the amount of asphalt between the hood and the care ahead, watching how quickly one object moves behind the other, observing the relative sizes of things you know (to your point about Minis being tiny SUVs), etc...

When I worked at SGI we were using our graphics engines to do this sort of work with relatively poor cameras. Today, we can use the great GPUs on the market and MUCH better cameras. What we appear to be missing was the visual systems software that was under development at the time. With the advent of LIDAR, many of the researchers went on to something else. It seems that they were unaware that camera and computing technology could potentially obsolete LIDAR.

Finally, the serious benefit of using cameras vs LIDAR is that the cameras have to be there anyway to do things like read a sign, tell what color a traffic light is, tell the difference between a person and a bush, etc... Given that, it makes LIDAR an expensive option which may be obsolete soon. (I don't listen to Elon - in my view he's an ass who doesn't actually know anything like as much as he things he does. I'm surprised he has backed this idea.)

[JoeP]

We would scan older hull molds at Delta to bring them into 3D CAD. The resolution of the point clouds was amazing and with lidar it was even in color much like a photograph. I take back my statement about using lidar in the fog because I just remmebered how much dust we picked up sometimes. At Jensen we had a tug scanned while it was still in the water and it was so fast you could not immediately tell.

[avramd]

We used to drive a Mini Clubman. We sold it when I realized that it looks too much like a mini SUV. Cars would pull out in front of us thinking we were a distant SUV rather than a close Mini.

Oh man, that reminds me of when I was at Lackland AFB in San Antonio for Field Training. This was a C5 Galaxy base at the time. In the precious few seconds I was allowed to look in whatever direction I felt like, I would stand almost agape in awe of what looked like blue whales basically hovering in mid-air. C5's fly about the same speed as any other plane, but being 2-3x bigger, they look like they are going 1/2-1/3 the speed.

[avramd]

One potential down-side of optical solutions is they are extremely dependent on the cameras being clean. I would assume LIDAR would be the same, but RADAR I believe is more tolerant of what it's going through.

Another thing that I believe can really throw an optical solution is fairly direct sunlight, or strong glare, if the sun is at just the wrong angle.

So far I am still quite uncomfortable with the auto-pilot. I can get used to its choice of lane position if I get to the point where I trust that it really does know the hard obstacles are there. There are two main issues that I'm really having trouble adapting to so far. I apologize in advance for my negativity that is leaking out here, and Beau I'd very much appreciate your insight and experience:

• The owner's manual heavily stresses that you must be ready to take over at any time. However, whenever it is doing something that I think is a bad idea, the torque I need to supply to override the steering wheel is MUCH MUCH more than the torque necessary to solve the problem I want to solve. The result is that the car jerks aggressively once it gets that I'm taking over, and darts in that direction way more than I wanted. There are other ways to shut off the auto-pilot, namely tapping the brake or flicking the drive selector stalk up. However both of these are an extra step (unless you wanted to brake anyway).
• The software (on the Model Y anyway) requires to you prove to it that you are alert and ready to take over by requiring you to constantly supply a minimum amount of torque to the steering wheel. This feels "wrong" and strikes me as requiring the driver to learn a bad habit. Basically, if the car is doing what I think it should be doing, then what is natural for me is to provide no torque. So to keep the autopilot active, it is basically saying "Be in a constant state of telling the car to do something that you do not want it to do." At this point, I am not interested in developing this habit.

There is a third meta-issue that I am also struggling with too. The entire concept of an auto-pilot that requires me to be ready to take over at any point strikes me as a step backwards. By definition, the benefit of auto-anything is to enable you to focus less, and relax. So far, my experience - and obviously I'm very new with it - is that relaxing at all is dangerous. I feel like I actually need to be more alert to use the auto-pilot than to steer myself. Said another way, the autopilot seems to require being in a constant state of distrust. I've been doing that for four years already, I'm ready for a break

It actually feels a lot like being the passenger in a car that is being driven by a teenager who only has his learner's permit, and who will not have to pay for the damages to the car or higher insurance rates if he crashes into somebody

[BeauV]

Avramd,

It took a while for me to get comfortable with the autopilot, and most of my "comfort" is gained by NOT using the thing in circumstances where your criticism apply. I drive myself. But, to put this in perspective, I've driven 200 mile stretches without having ever taken control on a trip to LA from SF. The autopilot was perfect for that. Just as one would never use an autopilot to drive through a crowded mooring field in a boat, I'd never use the Tesla autopilot to drive through risky situations. As we do a lot of freeway driving, in normal times over 300 to 400 miles a week, the autopilot is perfect.

Your complaint about the driver always putting torque on the wheel is echoed across many Tesla owners. Some have simply hung a lead weight on the wheel to fool the system. I just rest the weight of one arm on the wheel.

The BEST way to turn off the autopilot is to tap the brakes, just as I turn off cruise control. I think torquing the wheel is dangerous in a difficult situation because of the chance of over-shoot as the car releases. Tapping the brakes is almost always safer.

[avramd]

Avramd,

It took a while for me to get comfortable with the autopilot, and most of my "comfort" is gained by NOT using the thing in circumstances where your criticism apply. I drive myself. [...]

Your complaint about the driver always putting torque on the wheel is echoed across many Tesla owners. Some have simply hung a lead weight on the wheel to fool the system. I just rest the weight of one arm on the wheel.

The BEST way to turn off the autopilot is to tap the brakes, just as I turn off cruise control. I think torquing the wheel is dangerous in a difficult situation because of the chance of over-shoot as the car releases. Tapping the brakes is almost always safer.

Thanks Beau, this was helpful. I just drove back from Camden, ME to Newport. Once I got onto the three-lane section of I-95 in southern ME, which also just has wider lanes - the auto-pilot was pretty much fine. I was technically using "navigate on auto-pilot," but I didn't actually let it handle any junctions for me. The benefit of this over just auto-steer is that it prompts me to give it the ok to pass slower cars.

I agree that the best way to shut it off seems to be the brakes. Half the time it's what I would have done anyway. The other half it's still an unnecessary extra step, but not an unnatural one. I feel like there should be "Press the gear selector stalk up lightly to disengage auto-steering." Pressing it up firmly disengages both auto-steer and cruise control.

I'm going to start a separate thread on using & owning EV's since I feel like I've severely coopted this thread to basically get your advice on Tesla ownership. In case anybody in this thread wants to get back to just talking about the future of EV's...