Conoravirus ...

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Re: Conoravirus ...

Postby BeauV » Thu Jan 21, 2021 10:58 pm

JoeP wrote:Washington state just moved my group up (65+) so I will be getting my first shot on Monday.


Congrats!! CA is at 65+ also, but there's no supply.

Given it has been over 9 months since these folks knew they were going to be rolling this out, the level of idiotic, illogistical, and incompetent screwups in the supply chain are appalling.

Our country can get me some trinket overnight but can't roll-out a vaccine with months of warning. Grumbly Grumble Grump.
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Re: Conoravirus ...

Postby Slick470 » Fri Jan 22, 2021 9:10 am

I think you meant to lead off that last word with a "T" Beau...
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Re: Conoravirus ...

Postby Tigger » Fri Jan 22, 2021 11:26 am

When this thread started exactly one year ago, I asked somewhat flippantly if we should be worried. :shock:

Fingers crossed that by the second anniversary it's a dormant thread.
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Re: Conoravirus ...

Postby Jamie » Fri Jan 22, 2021 12:18 pm

I wonder about that. Supposedly herd immunity is scheduled for Q4 of this year. It wouldn't take much to get it to slide into '22. Plus there is the rest of the world that need vaccination too. How long do you think it will take India or Indonesia to reach herd immunity?

Chinese officials are holding their breath over the upcoming CNY. And filling an emerging market vacuum with a 50% effective vaccine.
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Re: Conoravirus ...

Postby BeauV » Fri Jan 22, 2021 3:02 pm

Slick470 wrote:I think you meant to lead off that last word with a "T" Beau...



:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: Conoravirus ...

Postby BeauV » Fri Jan 22, 2021 3:14 pm

In talking to a number of folks, I'm having trouble getting them to be realistic about the planning horizon for getting back to "normal". Here are what I perceive to be the reasons, I'd love folks thoughts on this as I literally just ended a conference call during which I was trying to get folks to be realistic about events etc... which they want to have run in a "normal way" in May.

Facts as I see them:
-- We are very disorganized at getting vaccines delivered and into the arms of citizens, running at less than 25% of plan
-- We don't yet know if vaccinated people can still transmit the virus without suffering from the disease, most folks don't understand the difference
-- We don't understand that with the arrival of the vaccine, the virus could immediately start to mutate to a version which gets around the vaccine
-- We don't understand that the virus is already mutating around the use of masks (thus the "more contagious" version just arriving)

All of this says to me that we will not be back to "normal" until the fall of 2021, and that assumes that the incoming administration kicks the vaccine distribution into high gear. When I say "Normal" I do NOT include being able to hop on a flight to India or Africa. The disease will run rampant there for years. Probably forever in Africa.

In my view, there is at least a 50% change that we will have another "surge" in the winter of 2021/2022.

During the summer of 2022, we might be closer to "normal", but there will still be large outbreaks going on in various places where for idiotic reasons folks have decided not to get vaccinated. The obvious analogy is the measles, which is still breaking out within various religious and whack-job groups. COVID-19 will act exactly as the Measles has acted.

So.... I've been branded as a cynic and a Debby Downer by a few folks. A pessimist, by many more. When faced with this, I point out that in our conversations in April of 2020, they told me I was being pessimistic for predicting 250,000 people would die of the disease in the US during 2020. I point out to them that I was wrong. The real number was much worse. But, that doesn't change their opinion.

I'd love some help with persuasive information or strategies, as some of these organizations are going to spend millions getting ready for a "normal American" which simply can't exist during the summer of 2021.

HELP!
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Re: Conoravirus ...

Postby kimbottles » Fri Jan 22, 2021 3:31 pm

I fear we will be lucky to get to some sort of normal before 2022.
I hope I am wrong.
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Re: Conoravirus ...

Postby Benno von Humpback » Sun Jan 24, 2021 11:08 am

BeauV wrote:In talking to a number of folks, I'm having trouble getting them to be realistic about the planning horizon for getting back to "normal". Here are what I perceive to be the reasons, I'd love folks thoughts on this as I literally just ended a conference call during which I was trying to get folks to be realistic about events etc... which they want to have run in a "normal way" in May.

Facts as I see them:
-- We are very disorganized at getting vaccines delivered and into the arms of citizens, running at less than 25% of plan
-- We don't yet know if vaccinated people can still transmit the virus without suffering from the disease, most folks don't understand the difference
-- We don't understand that with the arrival of the vaccine, the virus could immediately start to mutate to a version which gets around the vaccine
-- We don't understand that the virus is already mutating around the use of masks (thus the "more contagious" version just arriving)

All of this says to me that we will not be back to "normal" until the fall of 2021, and that assumes that the incoming administration kicks the vaccine distribution into high gear. When I say "Normal" I do NOT include being able to hop on a flight to India or Africa. The disease will run rampant there for years. Probably forever in Africa.

In my view, there is at least a 50% change that we will have another "surge" in the winter of 2021/2022.

During the summer of 2022, we might be closer to "normal", but there will still be large outbreaks going on in various places where for idiotic reasons folks have decided not to get vaccinated. The obvious analogy is the measles, which is still breaking out within various religious and whack-job groups. COVID-19 will act exactly as the Measles has acted.

So.... I've been branded as a cynic and a Debby Downer by a few folks. A pessimist, by many more. When faced with this, I point out that in our conversations in April of 2020, they told me I was being pessimistic for predicting 250,000 people would die of the disease in the US during 2020. I point out to them that I was wrong. The real number was much worse. But, that doesn't change their opinion.

I'd love some help with persuasive information or strategies, as some of these organizations are going to spend millions getting ready for a "normal American" which simply can't exist during the summer of 2021.

HELP!

All reasonable predictions and up to 40% of Americans may refuse the vaccine. All of this makes more time for genetic drift. I think it’s going to be a permanent feature of the health landscape. As for “normal,” many attitudes and institutions will be permanently altered. For example, work will stay virtual, retail will stay online, people will have durable and expensive exercise equipment in their homes, all with economic consequences.
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Re: Conoravirus ...

Postby Jamie » Sun Jan 24, 2021 7:49 pm

How do you stay COVID free for another 12+ months? I feel like a fugitive from the law of probability.
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Re: Conoravirus ...

Postby BeauV » Sun Jan 24, 2021 10:44 pm

First, I think that the vaccine will have a profound effect. But, it will be spotty. There will be areas of the globe that wise people simply don't visit. Indeed, there may be areas of the US which wise people simply don't visit. In my childhood, this was true of measles. The nonsense that we entitled white folks can just wander around anywhere on the planet with impunity is gone.

Second, people will be much more careful about the people with whom they associate. I already am. Even with masks, handwashing, etc... I'm not going back to riding public transit. I'll walk, bike, or drive. I think that it will be a long time before careful folks eat indoors at restaurants, clubs, or schools. Outside will become "ok" around mid-summer, IMHO. But, we'll have to retreat often as local surges occur for at least a few years.

Third, this will be very divisive within our American society. It will become common to disassociate with folks who are not vaccinated. I can see this forming up already. It's starting with the 3 people in my extended family who've been vaccinated. Everyone I know is keeping track of who has been vaccinated and who has not. Those who aren't vaccinated will notice that they are not invited in to a group by those who are. This will exacerbate the political divide in our country as those unvaccinated will be shunned by those who are. That too has already started in my extended family.

Finally, there's no reason to imagine we'll all get through this. Of course, we can follow my Grandfathers advice: "Don't take life to seriously, you'll never get out of it alive."
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Re: Conoravirus ...

Postby TheOffice » Mon Jan 25, 2021 10:58 am

Beau,

We were having a similar discussion last night. My youngest step-daughter is a college sophomore. We suspect that only students who have been vaccinated will be allowed in dorms and classrooms in the fall and thereafter.
In Maryland there is a push to partially reopen schools by March 1. Teachers are in group1C. At the rate we are moving, they won't start that group until after March 1. Then there is pushback from the unions. There will be a huge need for substitute teachers. Our county pays a whopping $17 per hour or $90 a day. You can make that loading trucks at Amazon and not have to deal with 30 smartass kids! Hopefully the unions will not rule here they way they do in Chicago.
Sue is determined to travel to someplace warm and sunny next January. I think it is realistic, but I'm guessing a lot of resorts will fold by then.

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Re: Conoravirus ...

Postby BeauV » Mon Jan 25, 2021 11:30 am

TheOffice wrote:Beau,

We were having a similar discussion last night. My youngest step-daughter is a college sophomore. We suspect that only students who have been vaccinated will be allowed in dorms and classrooms in the fall and thereafter.
In Maryland there is a push to partially reopen schools by March 1. Teachers are in group1C. At the rate we are moving, they won't start that group until after March 1. Then there is pushback from the unions. There will be a huge need for substitute teachers. Our county pays a whopping $17 per hour or $90 a day. You can make that loading trucks at Amazon and not have to deal with 30 smartass kids! Hopefully the unions will not rule here they way they do in Chicago.
Sue is determined to travel to someplace warm and sunny next January. I think it is realistic, but I'm guessing a lot of resorts will fold by then.

Joel


Joel,

The sales of campers, camper vans, RVs, cruising boats, trailers, are all off the hook! For precisely the reason you state. Just as Sue wants to go someplace warm and sunny in the winter, so does everyone else. But, they want to be isolated, at least to a level they feel safe. I have two friends in Santa Cruz who are living on their boats, having left their families at home once they came down with COVID.

My symptoms have just about disappeared, probably one or two days before my test results come back. sigh. But, I'm still glad I took the test. Also, my wife, daughters, sons, their spouses, and the grand kids won't let me anywhere near them until I get a negative test result.

At one of the Yacht Clubs I belong to, we're considering mandatory testing of members before they can return to the club. You should have HEARD the Libertarians in the crowd when that idea was floated. A bunch of them threatened to quite. Our Chair said: "You have every right to behave like a spoiled two year old." (That probably didn't make things better, but I agree with him.) It turns out that private clubs have no issue mandating vaccination for their members prior to return, but we can't do it to the employees. We live in a strange world.
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Re: Conoravirus ...

Postby LarryHoward » Mon Jan 25, 2021 12:18 pm

We do live in a strange world.

Not to downplay the seriousness of the pandemic, but from a big number, even the 25 Million cases in the latest US news represents 7% of the population and 2% of those die, mostly in higher age and risk categories. As we talked almost a year ago, this isn't going to wipe out human life. If anything, the excess deaths in 2020-2021 will only slow population increase. It will have an enormous impact on mobility, risk acceptance and social mores. In our little county of 113K, about 80 folks have died, around 65 of those directly associated with retirement/nursing facilities. Something like 8 under age 70. We are slightly above "average in cases and below average in mortality. I'm trying to keep a business going dependent on supply chains, available labor, etc. and things are really slowing down. We all need utilities, food, fuel, etc. so somebody somewhere has to go to work. I think there is a balance and have no idea where the fulcrum is or should be. Unless we come up with a way to get things moving again, its going to get ugly. Hopefully, we can right the ship of vaccine roll out and convince the anti vax crowds that they need this.

I read this morning that North Dakota may have reached close to 50% positive cases. Not sure where that data came from but it should provide an interesting look at approaching herd immunity in a very rural population. Estimates in NY last spring were 20% plus by antigen sampling and modeling but that hasn't slowed the second wave much at all. I have 3 people out on self quarantine today and our NY operation is running 2-3 exposures/week, all apparently contracted away from the job according to the contact tracers. Still risky as hell to stay open in any fashion but we are an "essential business" and are maximizing remote ops. I also feel bad for my blue/grey collar folks. Those of us who can and often do work remotely can also generally afford to ride out economically tough periods of some duration. I have folks who pretty much live paycheck to paycheck, have used all their sick leave and we simply can't afford to pay everybody to stay home indefinitely.
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Re: Conoravirus ...

Postby TheOffice » Mon Jan 25, 2021 12:36 pm

Beau,

I've got a neighbor with a powerboat rental business. 2020 was his best year ever, with every weekend sold out and 5-10 boats booked weekdays in the summer by those 'working from home'.

I know nothing about Cali labor laws, but the EEOC has said that mandatory vaccinations are OK as long as you make accomodations for those with a medical reason why the can't take the vaccine.
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Re: Conoravirus ...

Postby LarryHoward » Mon Jan 25, 2021 12:46 pm

TheOffice wrote:Beau,

I've got a neighbor with a powerboat rental business. 2020 was his best year ever, with every weekend sold out and 5-10 boats booked weekdays in the summer by those 'working from home'.

I know nothing about Cali labor laws, but the EEOC has said that mandatory vaccinations are OK as long as you make accommodations for those with a medical reason why the can't take the vaccine.



We have looked at mandatory vaccines but the challenge of adjudicating what's a valid medical reason is huge. I've been told "I'll take it if you tell me I have to but I'll sue if it turns out to be a bad decision." Add in that this is a very low unemployment area for talented blue collar and it becomes hard. Throw in the Southern MD Politics and we have a lot of "You can't make me do that." I know my oncology team is > 90% doctors have taken the shot while about 1/3 of the nurses, techs and clerks are in the "no" or "Not yet" camp. If HC professionals are not sure, what do we do with others?
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Re: Conoravirus ...

Postby Benno von Humpback » Mon Jan 25, 2021 4:40 pm

TheOffice wrote:...the EEOC has said that mandatory vaccinations are OK as long as you make accomodations for those with a medical reason why the can't take the vaccine.

This is what we have for flu and it works fine. SARS-CoV-2 is voluntary so far.
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Re: Conoravirus ...

Postby BeauV » Mon Jan 25, 2021 7:00 pm

TheOffice wrote:Beau,

I've got a neighbor with a powerboat rental business. 2020 was his best year ever, with every weekend sold out and 5-10 boats booked weekdays in the summer by those 'working from home'.

I know nothing about Cali labor laws, but the EEOC has said that mandatory vaccinations are OK as long as you make accomodations for those with a medical reason why the can't take the vaccine.


Our YC Lawyer was quite negative about "mandatory" vaccination for staff. But, he's really a corporate legal-beagle and seems to be shooting from the hip. I've got some of the staff looking into what we can vs can't do about this.

The question of "mandatory for the members" appears to be fair game. So far, no one can come up with a reason we can't do this: Other than pissing off all the right-wing, libertarians, and anti-vax folks. I've suggested we could make it temporary: "Until the worst of the pandemic is over". The hard-right was not impressed with how gracious I was being.
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Re: Conoravirus ...

Postby LarryHoward » Fri Jan 29, 2021 5:09 pm

Well, that was fun.

Due to variations in vaccine availability, our county health department controls all vaccines at present. By all reports, the process is efficient and well managed. The challenge is the Hunger Games approach to scheduling. Each Friday at approximately 3 PM, they open up the slots for the following week which are quickly filled (10-20 minutes max) For a number of reasons, I need to get one next week or wait 3-4 weeks.

From about 2:00 until 4:45 when the system came up, I was refreshing the county website, which then requires full registration information, including a health questionnaire, before offering appointment times. You don’t have the appointment until a time is confirmed at the end of the process and time offered may get snatched away while you are hitting submit.

Feel like I won the lottery. Pfizer Vax next Wed morning at 1103. Just checked. Appointments are all taken. 23 minutes.
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Re: Conoravirus ...

Postby Benno von Humpback » Fri Jan 29, 2021 7:15 pm

LarryHoward wrote:Well, that was fun.

Due to variations in vaccine availability, our county health department controls all vaccines at present. By all reports, the process is efficient and well managed. The challenge is the Hunger Games approach to scheduling. Each Friday at approximately 3 PM, they open up the slots for the following week which are quickly filled (10-20 minutes max) For a number of reasons, I need to get one next week or wait 3-4 weeks.

From about 2:00 until 4:45 when the system came up, I was refreshing the county website, which then requires full registration information, including a health questionnaire, before offering appointment times. You don’t have the appointment until a time is confirmed at the end of the process and time offered may get snatched away while you are hitting submit.

Feel like I won the lottery. Pfizer Vax next Wed morning at 1103. Just checked. Appointments are all taken. 23 minutes.

Glad to hear, Larry. Don’t plan anything for the day after that second shot though. Reactions vary, but I was nearly incapacitated for at least 24 hours.
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Re: Conoravirus ...

Postby TheOffice » Mon Feb 01, 2021 9:59 am

Our YC Lawyer was quite negative about "mandatory" vaccination for staff. But, he's really a corporate legal-beagle and seems to be shooting from the hip. I've got some of the staff looking into what we can vs can't do about this.

The question of "mandatory for the members" appears to be fair game. So far, no one can come up with a reason we can't do this: Other than pissing off all the right-wing, libertarians, and anti-vax folks. I've suggested we could make it temporary: "Until the worst of the pandemic is over". The hard-right was not impressed with how gracious I was being.[/quote]


FWIW:

Davis Wright Tremaine is the first Am Law 200 firm to publicly announce that it will require a coronavirus vaccine for its lawyers and staff members to return to work at the office.

Davis Wright announced the new guidelines on Thursday, report Law.com and Bloomberg Law.

A press release described the policy this way: “Allowing for a reasonable period of time to get vaccinated once eligible, only those who have been vaccinated will be allowed in the office or to attend firm-sponsored events. (In the coming months, proof of vaccination will also be required.)”

The policy allows paid time off to get vaccines and to recover from any side effects, if needed. Employees and lawyers should speak with human resources about reasonable accommodations if they can’t get vaccinated because of a disability, medical advice or religious beliefs.

The law firm said people shouldn’t return to the office, absent a specific need, until a significant portion of the population receives vaccines. And when lawyers and staff members do come to work, they will have to observe health protocols, such as wearing masks and practicing social distancing.

The firm also said it will provide vaccines at work, if it is possible.

Most law firm leaders who have spoken with Law.com have said they will encourage vaccines but did not announce any decisions about requiring them.
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Re: Conoravirus ...

Postby LarryHoward » Mon Feb 01, 2021 10:10 am

EEOC says it’s OK to require vaccines and to require folks to report vaccine status as it’s apparently not about “disability.” I won’t pretend to understand.

I do wonder if HC premiums will get adjusted based on employee vaccination percentages and worry that, depending on the manager and company, might end up in a claim that someone was terminated for not taking the vaccine even if it’s not “required.” I’m worried about us tracking to based on the “why are you tracking it and what action will you take based on the data?” Not a lawyer but seems a slippery slope.
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Re: Conoravirus ...

Postby TheOffice » Mon Feb 01, 2021 10:38 am

Larry,

it is a slippery slope.

Sue can't work in the hospital without a flu shot. I suspect Covid shots will be mandatory soon too. If I'm running an airline I'm going to mandate it so a passenger doesn't sue me when they get sick after a flight. If you don't like the pay/benefits/work conditions you know where the door is.
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Re: Conoravirus ...

Postby Olaf Hart » Mon Feb 01, 2021 3:18 pm

How does a compulsory vaccination policy deal with a vaccine not being 100% effective?

How will they deal with waning immunity?

How will they deal with antigenic shift?

Will employers and airlines eventually require antibody tests?

When will employers drop masking and distancing requirements?

There is no certainty here, lawyers will have a field day if a court upholds a contagion claim, we need to see COVID in the same light as influenza or the common cold, a general background health risk, not a preventable disease.

Requiring compulsory vaccination opens the whole liability debate, and makes organisations a target for legal action.

This thing isn’t going away.
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Re: Conoravirus ...

Postby BeauV » Sat Feb 06, 2021 12:58 am

My lovely Admiral and I got our first vaccine dose (Moderna) today. We're celebrating by spending the night on MAYAN, eating too much, drinking too much, and snuggling.
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Re: Conoravirus ...

Postby SemiSalt » Sat Feb 06, 2021 8:49 am

BeauV wrote:My lovely Admiral and I got our first vaccine dose (Moderna) today. We're celebrating by spending the night on MAYAN, eating too much, drinking too much, and snuggling.


My second shot was scheduled for tomorrow, 45 minutes away in West Haven. The weather looked good until Thursday when a storm coalesced out of nothing. Forecasts worsened all day yesterday and now it's looking like 7" of snow, and my appt time is right at peak snowfall. Gonna call and see about a reschedule.
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Re: Conoravirus ...

Postby Steele » Sat Feb 06, 2021 11:52 am

The local health care industry has had vaccine policies for some time, often in regard to the flu shot. Even in health care workers decline vaccines. If you are not vaccinated, and become ill or are exposed to the illness, you are sent home typically for two weeks. I don't recall if you burn your PTO time or if it is without pay. This not only incentivizes vaccination, but protects patients (many of whom also decline vaccines).

As already mentioned one of the biggest risks of a slow role out and refusing vaccination is allowing random mutations to develop in the virus that can subvert our efforts. The longer it circulates the higher the risk. I hope Fauci and the others in influential roles will start spreading this message soon.

I got my second shot last weekend and felt a bit off for a few days and developed a rash. It was not enough to miss work, and am now back to 100%. I hope Semi and the rest of you have the opportunity to be protected soon.
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Re: Conoravirus ...

Postby BeauV » Sun Feb 07, 2021 12:04 pm

We are being hosted by our Son (all folks part of our "Bubble") for the Super Bowl. It'll be the only football game we watch this year. The Admiral's comment: "I certainly don't miss sitting indoors watching football. But, once a year is probably ok. Which half do you want to watch? That might be my limit."

Obviously, we're not rabid football fans. :roll:
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Re: Conoravirus ...

Postby SemiSalt » Sun Feb 07, 2021 12:25 pm

Steele wrote: I hope Semi and the rest of you have the opportunity to be protected soon.


In the end, I braved the elements, and got the shot.
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Re: Conoravirus ...

Postby SemiSalt » Sun Feb 07, 2021 12:26 pm

BeauV wrote:We are being hosted by our Son (all folks part of our "Bubble") for the Super Bowl. It'll be the only football game we watch this year. The Admiral's comment: "I certainly don't miss sitting indoors watching football. But, once a year is probably ok. Which half do you want to watch? That might be my limit."

Obviously, we're not rabid football fans. :roll:


I only watch the 10 minute summaries on YouTube. I'll probably watch some of the game tonight, though.
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Re: Conoravirus ...

Postby Olaf Hart » Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:09 am

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