Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby kdh » Fri Apr 27, 2018 11:08 am

BeauV wrote:Keith, when we were buying our Model S for My Admiral's birthday present, it was all I could do to keep her from buying that 4 door Aston. She LOVED it! Still does. But, a friend up the road bought one and has had endless trouble with it. That makes me look good for pushing My Admiral into the Tesla. :)

I do NOT like the "new" grill. I had read someplace that the designer at Ford who ripped off the signature Aston grill was the brother of the Aston designer who originated it. Am I mis-remembering?

The new DB11 still has the Aston grill. They make beautiful cars.

I think Tucky's right, when Ford owned Aston they appropriated the look.

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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby kdh » Fri Apr 27, 2018 11:12 am

Our family car is a VW Golf. It does everything.
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby kdh » Fri Apr 27, 2018 11:15 am

Ajax wrote:Saudi Arabia tried to kill our domestic oil industry by saturating the market, but failed. Now, if OPEC drastically cuts production, US companies can fill the gap and make even more money, and add some stability to the market. If US oil companies get cute and try to game the market...well...I have no prediction for that.

To me there is supply and there is demand.

There is no game or anything else other than that.
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby Ajax » Fri Apr 27, 2018 11:27 am

kdh wrote:
Ajax wrote:Saudi Arabia tried to kill our domestic oil industry by saturating the market, but failed. Now, if OPEC drastically cuts production, US companies can fill the gap and make even more money, and add some stability to the market. If US oil companies get cute and try to game the market...well...I have no prediction for that.

To me there is supply and there is demand.

There is no game or anything else other than that.


Ultimately, I suppose you're right. If there is demand, and supply becomes too scarce (either through scarcity of resources or artificial production controls), prices rise too much, people find a replacement- EV's, being the example. Or maybe, people get sick and tired of the whipsawing prices and seek stability and choose an alternative.
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby BeauV » Fri Apr 27, 2018 12:42 pm

With three exceptions, when I was driving our SUV to LA and back, neither the Admiral nor I have been in a gasoline station in almost two years.

I hadn't really expected the very pleasant surprise of being able to re-fuel our Teslas at home. I certainly DO NOT miss gas stations. Frankly, avoiding the gas station has turned out to be a wonderful hidden benefit.

Superchargers are now plentiful enough that we can go anyplace between Reno, Seattle and San Diego without any serious requirement for planning our recharges. The mapping software in the Tesla builds you an optimized route with guidance to superchargers and places to eat while you wait.
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby LarryHoward » Fri Apr 27, 2018 12:48 pm

SNIP

BeauV wrote:
As to gasoline prices, we're still in a glut of crude as I understand it. (Others here would know better than I.) What we have going on is artificial production constraints through limited refining and restrictions by some producers. I seriously doubt that we're actually short of oil.


I agree with you on this. Lost of reserves ( and climbing) Demand relatively stable. OPEC can pump profitably at $12-15/bbl and I think Rob said most US production needs 40-45 and I read that Canadian tar sands need 60-65. OPEC pumping like hell depresses the price and hurts other producers BUT... OPEC, particularly Saudi as I recall, needs the revenue from $80+ to fuel their economy, particularly programs that keep the greater population from rising up against the House of Saud. That drives them to restrict production to force higher prices. They have a balancing act. At prices that support their economy, they compete globally for customers. At prices that suppliers other suppliers, I'll bet some spart economists even have a graph somewhere that estimates the optimal price to maximize OPEC revenue on their now very flexible share of the market.
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby Ajax » Fri Apr 27, 2018 12:50 pm

BeauV wrote:With three exceptions, when I was driving our SUV to LA and back, neither the Admiral nor I have been in a gasoline station in almost two years.

I hadn't really expected the very pleasant surprise of being able to re-fuel our Teslas at home. I certainly DO NOT miss gas stations. Frankly, avoiding the gas station has turned out to be a wonderful hidden benefit.

Superchargers are now plentiful enough that we can go anyplace between Reno, Seattle and San Diego without any serious requirement for planning our recharges. The mapping software in the Tesla builds you an optimized route with guidance to superchargers and places to eat while you wait.


LOL...it's so funny to read about the route optimizer. I used to do that manually with Google maps when driving my EV bug. I even took topology into account so that I could minimize upgrades and take advantage of long, downhill runs. The route I took to Ft. McHenry for reserve duty had a shallow downgrade that was over a mile long, with no traffic lights. I just glided without power since I didn't have regen.
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby BeauV » Fri Apr 27, 2018 4:31 pm

Ajax wrote:
BeauV wrote:With three exceptions, when I was driving our SUV to LA and back, neither the Admiral nor I have been in a gasoline station in almost two years.

I hadn't really expected the very pleasant surprise of being able to re-fuel our Teslas at home. I certainly DO NOT miss gas stations. Frankly, avoiding the gas station has turned out to be a wonderful hidden benefit.

Superchargers are now plentiful enough that we can go anyplace between Reno, Seattle and San Diego without any serious requirement for planning our recharges. The mapping software in the Tesla builds you an optimized route with guidance to superchargers and places to eat while you wait.


LOL...it's so funny to read about the route optimizer. I used to do that manually with Google maps when driving my EV bug. I even took topology into account so that I could minimize upgrades and take advantage of long, downhill runs. The route I took to Ft. McHenry for reserve duty had a shallow downgrade that was over a mile long, with no traffic lights. I just glided without power since I didn't have regen.


I've asked the Tesla engineers what the recharge percentage is when the car puts energy back in the batteries. The answer I got was that you get 80% of the energy back. That's more than I would have through, but these guys are the pros and they've no reason to BS me. What they did point out was that if you stack up all the energy consumptions: aerodynamic drag, tire rolling resistance, AC/Heat power, etc.... You find that the #1 item is aerodynamic drag and that it's massive at 60+ MPH, consuming about 90% of all the energy the car needs. Personally, I've found that my Model S has a max range of about 200 miles at 80 MPH and about 240 miles at 65 MPH.
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby TheOffice » Fri Apr 27, 2018 6:26 pm

Of course he wants to! By the time it gets through rulemakking and the courts he will be out of office.

Saw a new Nissan Leaf. Vast improvement over the old one, but its no Tesla to look at.
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby SemiSalt » Sat Apr 28, 2018 11:15 am

I drive a Mazda 5, a model going out of production. I suspect one reason is that it doesn't fit in any well-understood category. The back doors slide like a mini-van's, but it's way smaller than a mini-van, about the size of the light Toyota station wagons of yore. My wife think's it's a van. It's a great car for me, peppy to drive and the cargo area swallows my sailbags with no trouble. It's not rugged. I rather think it's sort of delicate.

2018-04-28_1156.png


Building any mechanical device with 1/10th the parts (by the way it's more like 1/20th) is a massive advantage and early reliability numbers on the longevity of the Model S are proving that out. There are now dozens (maybe 100s) of Teslas in service as Limos because they are substantially cheaper to operate. Our personal Model S has just about 40,000 miles on it and has been to the shop only because rats ate through some hoses and wires. Our 560 SEL had been to the shop 4 times (twice major problems) by this point, our BMW 740i had been to the shop 5 times (once major) by this point. There is quite literally no comparison between the reliability of the three cars. They are the same price range, and the Model S is just a much better car.


Until Beau wrote this, I never thought about how much a pure electric car can reduce routine maintenance. After all, my wife takes her Prius in for oil change more often than I do my Mazda. (Two reasons for this: the first couple years of oil changes were free, and my wife is more susceptible to industry whining that oil degrades with time as a well as miles.)

I won't buy a GM product again, so that rules out the Bolt.


Mention of the Bolt caused me to look it up. It promises 280 miles on a charge. We could live with that in a second car. For all the time that EV's were limited to 80-100 miles/charge, I thought that was not enough. I think in terms of going to JFK, about 60 miles round trip. That's cutting it close with an 80 mile range. OTOH, the Bolt recharges at the rate of 25 miles worth per 1 hour of charging. That pretty much takes it out of the road trip category. Also, the prices listed was $38,000. If there is enough material and labor in it to support that price, it must also take enough energy that it's not really a boon for the environment.
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby Panope » Sat Apr 28, 2018 11:40 am

I think the reason that electric (or hybrid) cars are good for the environment, is that it causes people to drive a smaller car. "Normal" small cars just aren't cool enough.

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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby Rob McAlpine » Sat Apr 28, 2018 12:58 pm

TheOffice wrote:
Fuel prices are about 25 cents a gallon, .


Huh?

OM and Ajax,

Don't believe everything you read about oil companies and alternatives, especially the BS from BP about "beyond petroleum".

Believe KDH. High oil prices lead to drilling, which leads to increased supply, which leads to lower prices. Sometime on the boat ask for a brief history and explanation of the industry. Bring a bottle.

Or just read The Prize, by Dan Yergin.
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby Panope » Sat Apr 28, 2018 1:19 pm

Rob, in addition to drilling, is there a significant number of wells that are simply turned off and on as the price fluctuates? I'm thinking about areas where the wells are cheap, but the actual pumping/transporting is expensive.

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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby TheOffice » Sat Apr 28, 2018 2:20 pm

Oops. Prices are 2.75 a gallon up $.25
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby Rob McAlpine » Sun Apr 29, 2018 7:45 am

Panope wrote:Rob, in addition to drilling, is there a significant number of wells that are simply turned off and on as the price fluctuates? I'm thinking about areas where the wells are cheap, but the actual pumping/transporting is expensive.

Steve


That's a short question with a long answer, but in general, no.
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby Orestes Munn » Sun Apr 29, 2018 8:42 am

Rob McAlpine wrote:
TheOffice wrote:
Fuel prices are about 25 cents a gallon, .


Huh?

OM and Ajax,

Don't believe everything you read about oil companies and alternatives, especially the BS from BP about "beyond petroleum".

Have you forgotten that I’m married to a petroleum princess? The BS helps. with the cognitive dissonance.
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby Ajax » Mon Apr 30, 2018 10:19 am

Autopilot isn't strictly an EV thing, but I get your point.

I think having these half-assed "driver assist" features is worse than having full, comprehensive autopilot. Consumers just don't realize or accept the limitations and they keep turning full control over a computer that is only designed to augment them.
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby Orestes Munn » Mon Apr 30, 2018 10:24 am

Ajax wrote:Autopilot isn't strictly an EV thing, but I get your point.

I think having these half-assed "driver assist" features is worse than having full, comprehensive autopilot. Consumers just don't realize or accept the limitations and they keep turning full control over a computer that is only designed to augment them.

I know the two have only a social connection. Just thought this was funny in a terrible sort of way...and nobody died.
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby BeauV » Mon Apr 30, 2018 11:25 am



Proving once again that for every genius in the distribution of human intelligence there is an idiot at the other end of the bell-curve. !!

Amazing that folks wish to outlaw the "autopilot" but want to let these idiots keep weapons and raise children.

It is hysterically funny, and I would have probably tried it when I was about 18. :)
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby kimbottles » Mon Apr 30, 2018 12:58 pm

BeauV wrote:
Ajax wrote:
BeauV wrote:With three exceptions, when I was driving our SUV to LA and back, neither the Admiral nor I have been in a gasoline station in almost two years.

I hadn't really expected the very pleasant surprise of being able to re-fuel our Teslas at home. I certainly DO NOT miss gas stations. Frankly, avoiding the gas station has turned out to be a wonderful hidden benefit.

Superchargers are now plentiful enough that we can go anyplace between Reno, Seattle and San Diego without any serious requirement for planning our recharges. The mapping software in the Tesla builds you an optimized route with guidance to superchargers and places to eat while you wait.


LOL...it's so funny to read about the route optimizer. I used to do that manually with Google maps when driving my EV bug. I even took topology into account so that I could minimize upgrades and take advantage of long, downhill runs. The route I took to Ft. McHenry for reserve duty had a shallow downgrade that was over a mile long, with no traffic lights. I just glided without power since I didn't have regen.


I've asked the Tesla engineers what the recharge percentage is when the car puts energy back in the batteries. The answer I got was that you get 80% of the energy back. That's more than I would have through, but these guys are the pros and they've no reason to BS me. What they did point out was that if you stack up all the energy consumptions: aerodynamic drag, tire rolling resistance, AC/Heat power, etc.... You find that the #1 item is aerodynamic drag and that it's massive at 60+ MPH, consuming about 90% of all the energy the car needs. Personally, I've found that my Model S has a max range of about 200 miles at 80 MPH and about 240 miles at 65 MPH.


Bicycle racers know that aerodynamic drag is by far the biggest energy consumer once above about 13 MPH. I have considerable direct personal experience with that subject.
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby BeauV » Sat May 12, 2018 4:49 am

It looks like the head of Engineering and Production at Tesla is taking a break. (I have no information other than what's HERE).

I was wondering if something like this might happen when Elon moved to nearly living at the factory and personally running Production. Doug Field is reported to be a great guy and an amazing talent, but Teslas sure look like they were designed by folks who didn't like the production folks very much.

Elon's actions here remind me of a somewhat tamer version of the 3 envelop joke.
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby Ajax » Sat May 12, 2018 8:04 am

Why haven't super-light, aerodynamic fairings become a thing on bicycles?
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby Panope » Sat May 12, 2018 8:54 am

Ajax, I think the problem with a faired bicycle is getting blown over by side winds.

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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby kimbottles » Sat May 12, 2018 11:54 am

Ajax wrote:Why haven't super-light, aerodynamic fairings become a thing on bicycles?


Illegal in the UCI regulations. Many riders want to look like Peter.

Steve is correct about side winds, even disc wheels have trouble with side winds.

Aero works Best on recumbent trikes due to their stability.
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby BeauV » Sat May 12, 2018 12:23 pm

Panope wrote:Ajax, I think the problem with a faired bicycle is getting blown over by side winds.

Steve


I tried out a bike with disk wheels on a ride up the coast of CA one afternoon. I nearly died multiple times. The winds were about 25 with gusts to 28 and only about 30° off the port bow. Each gust would move me sideways about 3'. I had to ride leaning into the wind about 10° which was also quite uncomfortable.

What I have used are aerodynamically faired spokes on my wheels, which we could measure made a meaningful difference. Most folks don't realize that the spoke at the bottom of the wheel is standing still, it has to unless the wheel is slipping, and the spoke at the top of the wheel is going 2X the bike speed. If you're a good rider, the bike is going at least 20 MPH, so the top of the wheel is going 40 MPH. Take a stiff wire and hold it out the window of your car while driving at 40 MPH and then multiple that by about 6 to get the drag of those top spokes. It's a "Big Deal". :)
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby kimbottles » Sat May 12, 2018 12:45 pm

BeauV wrote:
Panope wrote:Ajax, I think the problem with a faired bicycle is getting blown over by side winds.

Steve


I tried out a bike with disk wheels on a ride up the coast of CA one afternoon. I nearly died multiple times. The winds were about 25 with gusts to 28 and only about 30° off the port bow. Each gust would move me sideways about 3'. I had to ride leaning into the wind about 10° which was also quite uncomfortable.

What I have used are aerodynamically faired spokes on my wheels, which we could measure made a meaningful difference. Most folks don't realize that the spoke at the bottom of the wheel is standing still, it has to unless the wheel is slipping, and the spoke at the top of the wheel is going 2X the bike speed. If you're a good rider, the bike is going at least 20 MPH, so the top of the wheel is going 40 MPH. Take a stiff wire and hold it out the window of your car while driving at 40 MPH and then multiple that by about 6 to get the drag of those top spokes. It's a "Big Deal". :)


All true.
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby kdh » Tue May 15, 2018 9:15 am

BeauV wrote:It looks like the head of Engineering and Production at Tesla is taking a break. (I have no information other than what's HERE).

I was wondering if something like this might happen when Elon moved to nearly living at the factory and personally running Production. Doug Field is reported to be a great guy and an amazing talent, but Teslas sure look like they were designed by folks who didn't like the production folks very much.

Elon's actions here remind me of a somewhat tamer version of the 3 envelop joke.

Morgan Stanley's singing the tune I was singing earlier:

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas, a one-time ardent bull, continues to wave the caution flag, slashing his price target due to troubles in the electric car maker’s production process for the Model 3 sedan.

“The challenges in ramping up Model 3 production reflect fundamental issues of vehicle design, manufacturing process and automation levels that can weigh against the profitability of the vehicle,” Jonas wrote in a note to clients. While Tesla management believes the Model 3’s margin falling below the company’s 25 percent target will prove to be temporary, Jonas said the headwinds are more structural.

In the end Tesla have to build cars at a profit.
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Re: Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

Postby Anomaly » Tue May 15, 2018 2:13 pm

kdh wrote:In the end Tesla have to build cars at a profit.


Life of the party kind of guy aren't you...? Wait, I didn't mean to mock you, what I meant to say was, can I borrow some money? I want to buy a Tesla before they raise their prices....
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