The Last Palace

[kdh]

Interesting.

I'm fascinated by studies that look into what makes people happy. A principal vector for being happier is "lower your expectations."

[Benno von Humpback]

Interesting.

I'm fascinated by studies that look into what makes people happy. A principal vector for being happier is "lower your expectations."

I don't think the old Soviet system made people happy. It's just that kicking the anthill over made them utterly miserable. People were certainly happier here, but I think something akin to that has happened.

[TheOffice]

When dictators allow subjects a little freedom, it raises expectations and leads to demand for more freedom. Thus, the key to power is to keep suppressing expectations.

[Jamie]

The requirement for self-direction in liberal societies can cause a lot of mental stress to people not used to it. You see most visibly it in defectors from totalitarian states like N Korea.

[Benno von Humpback]

The requirement for self-direction in liberal societies can cause a lot of mental stress to people not used to it. You see most visibly it in defectors from totalitarian states like N Korea.

Sometimes I'm not crazy about it myself.

[BeauV]

In these sorts of discussions I’m often caught remembering the old Marine Corp description of people:

There are three types of people: Sheep (most folks), Wolves (who prey on the sheep), and Sheepdogs (Marines who protect the sheep).

The sheep are confused and fearful when there aren’t rules to follow and people to obey. Sadly, I’ve seen this confirmed over and over again. Also, sheep are very poor at telling a Wolf from a Sheepdog, when they believe they are signing up to be protected by a sheepdog and discover it’s really a wolf, they get eaten before they can change course.

[Benno von Humpback]

In these sorts of discussions I’m often caught remembering the old Marine Corp description of people:

There are three types of people: Sheep (most folks), Wolves (who prey on the sheep), and Sheepdogs (Marines who protect the sheep).

The sheep are confused and fearful when there aren’t rules to follow and people to obey. Sadly, I’ve seen this confirmed over and over again. Also, sheep are very poor at telling a Wolf from a Sheepdog, when they believe they are signing up to be protected by a sheepdog and discover it’s really a wolf, they get eaten before they can change course.

I tend to think everybody’s afraid of someone and we successful sheep look an awful lot like wolves to some folks.

[Olaf Hart]

When dictators allow subjects a little freedom, it raises expectations and leads to demand for more freedom. Thus, the key to power is to keep suppressing expectations.

That’s pretty much what is happening in China at the moment.

[Jamie]

When dictators allow subjects a little freedom, it raises expectations and leads to demand for more freedom. Thus, the key to power is to keep suppressing expectations.

That’s pretty much what is happening in China at the moment.

Actually they're selling something far more intoxicating: the idea of a resurgent China, back in its rightful place as the leading global power. Everyone can get rich and powerful on the way up, and your personal sacrifice is for a good cause.

There will be no shift to Western liberal values like freedom, democracy...etc... because most Chinese don't want it. The minority that do are easily pushed aside or forced into irrelevancy overseas.

[BeauV]

When dictators allow subjects a little freedom, it raises expectations and leads to demand for more freedom. Thus, the key to power is to keep suppressing expectations.

That’s pretty much what is happening in China at the moment.

Actually they're selling something far more intoxicating: the idea of a resurgent China, back in its rightful place as the leading global power. Everyone can get rich and powerful on the way up, and your personal sacrifice is for a good cause.

There will be no shift to Western liberal values like freedom, democracy...etc... because most Chinese don't want it. The minority that do are easily pushed aside or forced into irrelevancy overseas.

From the years I spent doing business in China, I belief Jamie has it exactly right.

[Benno von Humpback]

When dictators allow subjects a little freedom, it raises expectations and leads to demand for more freedom. Thus, the key to power is to keep suppressing expectations.

That’s pretty much what is happening in China at the moment.

Actually they're selling something far more intoxicating: the idea of a resurgent China, back in its rightful place as the leading global power. Everyone can get rich and powerful on the way up, and your personal sacrifice is for a good cause.

There will be no shift to Western liberal values like freedom, democracy...etc... because most Chinese don't want it. The minority that do are easily pushed aside or forced into irrelevancy overseas.

But different from Russia in that it is a meritocracy where work actually pays and success is not usually punished.

[Jamie]

When dictators allow subjects a little freedom, it raises expectations and leads to demand for more freedom. Thus, the key to power is to keep suppressing expectations.

That’s pretty much what is happening in China at the moment.

Actually they're selling something far more intoxicating: the idea of a resurgent China, back in its rightful place as the leading global power. Everyone can get rich and powerful on the way up, and your personal sacrifice is for a good cause.

There will be no shift to Western liberal values like freedom, democracy...etc... because most Chinese don't want it. The minority that do are easily pushed aside or forced into irrelevancy overseas.

But different from Russia in that it is a meritocracy where work actually pays and success is not usually punished.

Yes. As long as you suborn it to the greater cause of of the CCP and the China Dream.

[Benno von Humpback]

When dictators allow subjects a little freedom, it raises expectations and leads to demand for more freedom. Thus, the key to power is to keep suppressing expectations.

That’s pretty much what is happening in China at the moment.

Actually they're selling something far more intoxicating: the idea of a resurgent China, back in its rightful place as the leading global power. Everyone can get rich and powerful on the way up, and your personal sacrifice is for a good cause.

There will be no shift to Western liberal values like freedom, democracy...etc... because most Chinese don't want it. The minority that do are easily pushed aside or forced into irrelevancy overseas.

But different from Russia in that it is a meritocracy where work actually pays and success is not usually punished.

Yes. As long as you suborn it to the greater cause of of the CCP and the China Dream.

That is, totalitarianism has not broken down completely. Given the historical tendency to feudalism and corruption, the lack of republican traditions, and the huge land mass, is that a good thing temporarily?

[Jamie]

When dictators allow subjects a little freedom, it raises expectations and leads to demand for more freedom. Thus, the key to power is to keep suppressing expectations.

That’s pretty much what is happening in China at the moment.

Actually they're selling something far more intoxicating: the idea of a resurgent China, back in its rightful place as the leading global power. Everyone can get rich and powerful on the way up, and your personal sacrifice is for a good cause.

There will be no shift to Western liberal values like freedom, democracy...etc... because most Chinese don't want it. The minority that do are easily pushed aside or forced into irrelevancy overseas.

But different from Russia in that it is a meritocracy where work actually pays and success is not usually punished.

Yes. As long as you suborn it to the greater cause of of the CCP and the China Dream.

That is, totalitarianism has not broken down completely. Given the historical tendency to feudalism and corruption, the lack of republican traditions, and the huge land mass, is that a good thing temporarily?

Everything you say is true but...it's only a good thing if you think a large, highly populated country with a very large historical chip on it's shoulder and strong irredentist tendencies, where the only check on government action is a politicized and propagandized public sentiment, is a good thing.

History in China goes in dynastic cycles of strong and weak central governments. Think central gov gravity vs centripetal acceleration of the provinces and adjacent territories. The countries surrounding China only get a break when the dynastic cycle is weak . The 1911 revolution, the first modern Chinese state, was in direct reaction to the sentiment that foreigners have done us wrong and a Qing dynasty was unable or unwilling to defend China. The CCP dynasty in power today has hooked it's wagon to making China great again. It has chosen the most aggressive definition of it's historical borders because it remembers what happens to Chinese governments that give up land to foreigners (May 4th...etc...). The CCP has backed itself into an ideological corner by ensuring that it cannot let of HKG, Taiwan, South China Sea , DiaoYuTai...etc... by teaching the entire population that these things are unequivocally Chinese and it can not be seen as making China great again if it comes to a negotiated settlement with a foreign power or even the Chinese residents located in those territories. It's going to be a rough ride.

[Benno von Humpback]

When dictators allow subjects a little freedom, it raises expectations and leads to demand for more freedom. Thus, the key to power is to keep suppressing expectations.

That’s pretty much what is happening in China at the moment.

Actually they're selling something far more intoxicating: the idea of a resurgent China, back in its rightful place as the leading global power. Everyone can get rich and powerful on the way up, and your personal sacrifice is for a good cause.

There will be no shift to Western liberal values like freedom, democracy...etc... because most Chinese don't want it. The minority that do are easily pushed aside or forced into irrelevancy overseas.

But different from Russia in that it is a meritocracy where work actually pays and success is not usually punished.

Yes. As long as you suborn it to the greater cause of of the CCP and the China Dream.

That is, totalitarianism has not broken down completely. Given the historical tendency to feudalism and corruption, the lack of republican traditions, and the huge land mass, is that a good thing temporarily?

Everything you say is true but...it's only a good thing if you think a large, highly populated country with a very large historical chip on it's shoulder and strong irredentist tendencies, where the only check on government action is a politicized and propagandized public sentiment, is a good thing.

History in China goes in dynastic cycles of strong and weak central governments. Think central gov gravity vs centripetal acceleration of the provinces and adjacent territories. The countries surrounding China only get a break when the dynastic cycle is weak . The 1911 revolution, the first modern Chinese state, was in direct reaction to the sentiment that foreigners have done us wrong and a Qing dynasty was unable or unwilling to defend China. The CCP dynasty in power today has hooked it's wagon to making China great again. It has chosen the most aggressive definition of it's historical borders because it remembers what happens to Chinese governments that give up land to foreigners (May 4th...etc...). The CCP has backed itself into an ideological corner by ensuring that it cannot let of HKG, Taiwan, South China Sea , DiaoYuTai...etc... by teaching the entire population that these things are unequivocally Chinese and it can not be seen as making China great again if it comes to a negotiated settlement with a foreign power or even the Chinese residents located in those territories. It's going to be a rough ride.

Thanks, Jamie!

Re weak governments, I just remember reading about what an arch failure Chiang was and how close we came to cutting him loose over his corruption and failure to fight in WW2. At least these guys are a massive counterweight to Russia.

[BeauV]

I LOVE THIS PLACE!!!

Getting a lesson in Chinese history and politics over my morning coffee is just plain wonderful!!! Thank you, Jamie and Eric for discussing this in front of us all and letting us tag along for the ride. Really interesting stuff.

[Slick470]

I agree Beau. I learn quite a bit in the normal threads, but even more in the thread drifts.

[Jamie]

When dictators allow subjects a little freedom, it raises expectations and leads to demand for more freedom. Thus, the key to power is to keep suppressing expectations.

That’s pretty much what is happening in China at the moment.

Actually they're selling something far more intoxicating: the idea of a resurgent China, back in its rightful place as the leading global power. Everyone can get rich and powerful on the way up, and your personal sacrifice is for a good cause.

There will be no shift to Western liberal values like freedom, democracy...etc... because most Chinese don't want it. The minority that do are easily pushed aside or forced into irrelevancy overseas.

But different from Russia in that it is a meritocracy where work actually pays and success is not usually punished.

Yes. As long as you suborn it to the greater cause of of the CCP and the China Dream.

That is, totalitarianism has not broken down completely. Given the historical tendency to feudalism and corruption, the lack of republican traditions, and the huge land mass, is that a good thing temporarily?

Everything you say is true but...it's only a good thing if you think a large, highly populated country with a very large historical chip on it's shoulder and strong irredentist tendencies, where the only check on government action is a politicized and propagandized public sentiment, is a good thing.

History in China goes in dynastic cycles of strong and weak central governments. Think central gov gravity vs centripetal acceleration of the provinces and adjacent territories. The countries surrounding China only get a break when the dynastic cycle is weak . The 1911 revolution, the first modern Chinese state, was in direct reaction to the sentiment that foreigners have done us wrong and a Qing dynasty was unable or unwilling to defend China. The CCP dynasty in power today has hooked it's wagon to making China great again. It has chosen the most aggressive definition of it's historical borders because it remembers what happens to Chinese governments that give up land to foreigners (May 4th...etc...). The CCP has backed itself into an ideological corner by ensuring that it cannot let of HKG, Taiwan, South China Sea , DiaoYuTai...etc... by teaching the entire population that these things are unequivocally Chinese and it can not be seen as making China great again if it comes to a negotiated settlement with a foreign power or even the Chinese residents located in those territories. It's going to be a rough ride.

Thanks, Jamie!

Re weak governments, I just remember reading about what an arch failure Chiang was and how close we came to cutting him loose over his corruption and failure to fight in WW2. At least these guys are a massive counterweight to Russia.

I have no love for Chiang, but he gets a bit of a bad rap - in some respects - for WWII.

First, he never had a completely unified government or army; there were still factions from the warlord days despite him being the guy to win the Northern Expedition in 1972-1928. Every time he fought he had to convince some warlord-now-general to "spend" his personal army. He actually fought more against the Japanese than the CCP ever did. In 1937-38 the Nationalist army fought huge - like 1M men huge - battles in Shanghai and Tai Er Zhuang. When the rest of the world was basically getting their head handed to them by the Japanese, he came close the fighting them to a standstill in Shanghai and beat them in Tai Er Zhuang. For his pains he lost most of his modern army and most of his effective Whampoa trained officers. His take away from that was wait to it out and by the time that Stillwell showed up, much of what was left was of poor quality. The Japanese created communist China, in a way.

KMT efforts are now being recognized by the CCP in limited way to facilitate the take-over of Taiwan.