Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

[kimbottles]

I bet that Ten years from now there will be a wide variety of electric cars on the market.
Tesla will just be the expensive option.

[TheOffice]

I think it will be more like 3-5 years. They’ll be lots of expensive options including MB and BMW.

[LarryHoward]

I bet that Ten years from now there will be a wide variety of electric cars on the market.
Tesla will just be the expensive option.

I think Tesla’s challenge is that they have to remain in front from a tech standpoint and that means lots of investment costs to amortize against shrinking margins. Model 3 has cannibalized Model S and X sales at much lower margins so profit is stagnant at best and more often negative. As others enter the electric market, value for money gets harder to determine. Being first means a big target on Elon’s back.

[Steele]

Is the look part of the branding?

I believe the S is 12 years old!

For 12 years it has aged very well! Looks are part of branding, but steady evolution seems to be the way the game is played. Audi is the best at this recently with each iteration a little more striking, but still recognizable as a member of the brand. The newest Tesla has no real qualities to differentiate it from a 12 year old design. Deleting the orignal fake grill doesn't count.

Although purely subjective I think the new Audi electric sportute is much better looking than the Tesla

[TheOffice]

Something about the nose of the Model 3 I don't like. Maybe it needs a decal in the shape of a mouth with some fangs - at least on the performance version. I'm sure it

the E Audi looks like an Audi. Its familiar, but to me its bland.

[BeauV]

I hadn’t thought about the S being 12 years old. I actually like it that the styling has only changed imperceptibly. When styles change in cars it’s like telling all your current customers: “You are now driving an OLD CAR.” For many folks, it’s insulting.

I’m guessing, but I think that Tesla will bring out a new “look” once anyone gets close to being a competitor. Right now, there isn’t any other car that comes close, so there’s no threat. To repeat what I’ve said elsewhere, we bought our first Tesla because it was electric and innovative. We bought the second one because we discovered that the Tesla is simply a _better_car_ than the Mercedes and BMWs we’d owned for years. That’s still true.

The lack of adornment, bling, etc... inside and out is part of this. It’s as if an adult designed the cars (especially the Model 3) vs some rapper working as a consultant. I have no idea why Mercedes has decided to go the way they have with their interiors.

[JoeP]

Alfa is supposedly going to offer its new Tonale SUV as a hybrid. https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a29402235/alfa-romeo-tonale-suv-photos-leaked/ It looks good and will probably handle pretty well but it is an Alfa. What could possibly go wrong? Personal experience has contributed to my love/hate relationship with Alfas.

[SemiSalt]

I was passed this morning by a dark blue Ferrari. Who paints a Ferrari dark blue?

[kimbottles]

I was passed this morning by a dark blue Ferrari. Who paints a Ferrari dark blue?

Stealth Mode??

[kdh]

I was passed this morning by a dark blue Ferrari. Who paints a Ferrari dark blue?

Stealth Mode??

I think about half of Ferraris built these days are not red. Even my car is a darker and glossier shade than the standard Rossa Corsa. And the Ferrari shields are an option. They can be omitted for an even stealthier look.

Then again, a Prius is pretty stealthy no matter what the color.

[BeauV]

I was passed this morning by a dark blue Ferrari. Who paints a Ferrari dark blue?

My Ferrari was a very dark red, the color of Barolo wine. No horse logos anywhere. Only folks who knew what they were looking for knew it was a Ferrari. Perfect.

[Steele]

My stealth vehicle is a 2008 Nissan pickup. It's painted dirt brown, so nobody knows if it's clean or not. Despite this I have been known to compulsively clean and wax it once or twice a year. This creates more than a little sarcastic commentary from my wife who points out after 2 hours of work it looks the same as when I started. I hate it when she is right, but she is right.

[slap]

My little Miata is a fairly bright red color. While a red car supposedly attracts the police I just wanted a color that stands out a bit so that the SUVs and pickup truck drivers will notice it.

Getting back to electric cars, has there been any talk of "blackout anxiety" with electric cars in California since they cannot be charged when the power is out?

[BeauV]

My little Miata is a fairly bright red color. While a red car supposedly attracts the police I just wanted a color that stands out a bit so that the SUVs and pickup truck drivers will notice it.

Getting back to electric cars, has there been any talk of "blackout anxiety" with electric cars in California since they cannot be charged when the power is out?

We did wonder where we were going to get a re-charge. The city of Santa Cruz has a number of charging stations and there wasn’t a problem. Similarly, many of the towns around the SF Bay Area were providing free charging. Finally, Tesla SuperCharger stations didn’t seem to have the power cut off - which is odd. I investigated and found that if you have a service agreement with PG&E (as many data-centers do, they did not cut your power. A side effect of working for a company with a big data-center is that you could re-charge your car from their PG&E feed.

So, in short, yes we did worry; but then found out that it wasn’t really a problem.

[TheOffice]

Lots of news out of the Tokyo Auto show:

Honda will only sell electrics in Europe starting in 2022!!

Mazda has an electric SUV. Looks great, but range is only 130 miles WTF?

Nissan has an electric SUV concept that looks cool. No production date.

And good news from Tesla on the Model Y - next summer, and Shanghai is coming on line.

[BeauV]

I've been reading a lot about the Electric car from Porsche, having been a very happy Porsche customer for over two decades and 5 vehicles. I am seriously worried that they have over-engineered the thing.

The primary concern is their high-speed charging, which they are still refusing to answer a key question about. "Will it be backward compatible with a Tesla Supercharger?"

If it isn't - this is a no-go for the hundreds of thousands of Tesla owners, as they already have a way to charge at home (for the vast majority) which would be incompatible, and because there will only be a tiny number of Porsche fast-charge stations for the foreseeable future. Tesla has tied up a LOT of space and power capacity with long term contracts on prime spots for re-charge stations...

As to the other car manufacturers, I think their adoption of electric vehicles will lag badly as they aren't particularly good at the power electric stuff for the motors/batteries; but more importantly, they don't seem to realize that the Tesla is a rolling computer/entertainment-center with electric motors attached. For the key long-term demographic, the ability to merge one's phone/pad with the Tesla screen and apps is a "big deal". Apple CarPlay is the only thing that is remotely close, and I'm using the latest version of that. Compared to Tesla, it sucks.

These old folks who are doing marketing at auto companies don't realize that Millenials and Gen-Z types will choose a car in large part based on the way it integrates with the electronics they love, not the electronics which come with the car.

As a side note, I just accidentally used Apple Maps for the first time in two years. It is massively better and did a better job of routing me and coaching me verbally than either Waze (my standard) or Google Maps (my #2). What cause the accidental use was that I asked my wrist watch to route me becuase I was driving in heavy traffic, rush-hour in downtown SF, and it was amazing. The watch buzzes or talk, your choice, and guides you really well with things like: "Go through this traffic light and turn left at the next one." A simple sounding thing, but Waze only talks in terms of distance.

[TheOffice]

Beau,

Porsche doesn't sell in enough volume to justify the cost of a charging network. It would suck to have to use a 'normal' charging station. I wonder if Tesla's leases give them exclusive rights at those locations.

I expect Tesla to block the ability to charge another brand vehicle on its chargers, even at home. No different than needing an Apple certified charging cable. It has a proprietary connection for a reason. Can't charge your Leaf/Bolt at a Supercharger.

Motors can be reverse engineered. It will be a while before others can match the efficiency of the Tesla motors, but a lot of money is being spent to catch up. I've never compared CarPlay to Tesla, but I'm not surprised that Tesla's software is superior. Neither of our cars has CarPlay, so this old geezer it will be a big leap forward. Liked having it in the Peugot rental!

Good to know about the Apple Maps. if nothing else, it will force Google to step up its game. I'll have to give it a try.

I keep telling my dealer/client I want an ID4 when it is available. (if you aren't paying gas taxes can you bitch about potholes?)

Joel

[Steele]

I believe Beau is on the mark with predicting the current generation car buying habits. In my youth we were infatuated with cars, changed our own oil, read car magaizines and could not wait to learn to drive. Now the tech side is very important, and many younger workers are not interested in cars at all and are putting off buying until they have families. Some in the industry are predicting future buyers will purchase vehicles based on saftey and tech, and some will order them without a test drive.

I am waiting for the new crop of electric pickups. My small nissan works well for my needs and has another 50K of use in it. Hopefully by then there will be some small/midsize electric options. The upcomming Rivian looks promising with a huge amount of funding from Ford and Amazon, but is too big and expensive for me. I do not need a $70K truck that can do 0-60 in 3 seconds. The first of the type are often halo vehicles and it will take some time for less expensive and practical options to hit the showrooms. Perhaps by then I will order it online on a site using AI to choose my options form prior google searches. The drone delivery should be interesting.

[TheOffice]

Steele,

In high school I took auto shop instead of physics, so you are describing me.

The whole industry has to change. Dealers make their money fixing cars, not selling them. Once the ICE is gone,repairs will be cheaper and less frequent. Dealers with huge investments in repair facilities will need to change their business model. Maybe they will be charging stations with lounges.

We'll see if VW makes good on its promise to sell ECs for the same price as ICEs.

Joel

[Steele]

I am surprised the companies marketing electric cars do not focus more on maintenance and reliability. There is no exaust system, cooling system or transmission to fail. You never change the oil and the brakes should last a long time with regenerative charging. The batteries are still bit of a wild card, but so far I have heard of very few problems. Perhaps you are correct, the car companies make so much money off maintenance and repairs they are reluctant to push electrics too hard?

[Jamie]

Explaining the cost vs price story is often hard sell, especially when the electric car companies like Tesla are still new at the mass mfg game and car mfg have already taken all of the value out of the purchase price part of the cost.

The current generation realize what a bad investment cars are; even those that are rolling 60 month loans and negative equity into new 72 month loans. I see more AVIS type businesses, less GM.

ICE cars will be enthusiast toys - kind of like sailboats. Maybe those are the only cars that still get purchased outright?

[TheOffice]

Leasing will be even more popular with EVs as everyone wants the latest toy. Like an iPhone. I wonder what the market will be for off-lease EVs.

One gas station in the ultra-liberal enclave of Takoma Park Maryland replaced its pumps with chargers. We'll see how that goes as a business model.

[BeauV]

First, gas stations and car dealerships are not the right physical dimensions to be good charging stations. Charging takes a long time (15-45 minutes), so it requires a lot more space than filling up gas tanks (3-8 minutes). As a result, Tesla Supercharger stations are quite different from anything like a gas station or car dealership (unless the dealership is empty).

In the picture below, from THIS article, you can see that Tesla is building a roof to keep the charging cars cool and also to help charge them with the solar panels on the roof.




Second, it will be trivial to have an EV car that is cheaper to manufacture than an ICE car. The EV has a tiny fraction of the number of moving parts, takes less labor, and requires substantially smaller warranty reserves (see next point). This is the primary reason that companies like MBZ have already announced that they will halt R&D on ICE engines and move those R&D dollars over to EVs.

Third, the operating cost of an EV paid by the consumer is a tiny fraction of the operating cost of an ICE. The obvious things are cheaper fuel on a per-mile basis plus MUCH lower maintenance and repair costs on the drive train and brakes. EG: our Tesla Model S has 75% of its original brakes left after nearly 50,000 miles of driving, much of it pretty hard driving. Drive train maintenance has been zero. The total cost has been two tires because I drive the car hard on our local Highway over the mountains and it wears out the outside edge of the front tires. There have been two service calls for minor things, like door handles and windows not working right. They were covered under warranty. The key to all this is that the car has about 70% fewer moving parts.

Finally, I can't think of a reason that one couldn't make the Porsche compatible with the Supercharger. If it'll operate at the 800V level it should be able to operate at the 400V level that Tesla uses. Going down in voltage is a pretty easy problem to deal with. However, it won't charge any faster than Tesla does once they lower the voltage. The problem with the Leaf and Volt and other EVs that I know of is that they aren't using 400V systems. Going from a high voltage to a lower one is much harder, not just a connector. This is why Teslas can use all the slow chargers designed for Leaf/Volt/etc... by having a simple adapter, while those cars can't go the other way.

[Olaf Hart]

I understand why the transition from ICE to electric is an evolutionary process, minimising the rate of change from heavy large metal cars so people aren’t stressed out by by the rate of change, but electric provides an opportunity to re think and restructure the whole transport process.

My impression of younger folks is they would welcome a major system redesign, to lighter, smaller, personal, connective transport units. The potential of this transition is just beginning. I see cities full of small, light two person units that are rented whenever they are needed, that connect like a train for larger groups, that always turn up fully charged, that are self drive, and return themselves to a charging depot after use.

[Steele]

Olaf, that seems to be a reasonable prediction especailly if you include e-bikes, scooters etc. I live in a very dense tech city where regular bikes, ride shares, e-bikes, buses and a new light rail system are evolving, but it is painful since we still need cars. My in-laws (ages 86 and 94, hard of hearing and prone to falls) are not capable of negotiating a complex transportation system when they have a doctor's appointment and I can't take a two person electric pod on a 100 mile trip to the downhill ski area.

What I am looking for is a version of an electric honda accord. Modest performance, two wheel drive, reasonable price, room for the in-laws etc. My last honda went 110 thousand miles with no electrical or suspension issues. A similar e-car shoud go 100k with 0 trips to the dealer or repair shop. The thought of never having to deal with the dealer ever (I would buy it at Costco) is enough to pay a decent premium. One set of tires at 70k, trade it in at 150k.

I will keep my S2000 for as long a premium gas is available.

[Tigger]

All things being equal ... given a similar crash, would an electric vehicle be cheaper to repair that one with an ICE?

[TheOffice]

Crash repair would probably depend on whether the battery pack was damaged.

Beau the Tesla charger could be made compatible with Porsche. I just don’t see why Tesla would do it.

[kdh]

I believe Beau is on the mark with predicting the current generation car buying habits. In my youth we were infatuated with cars, changed our own oil, read car magaizines and could not wait to learn to drive. Now the tech side is very important, and many younger workers are not interested in cars at all and are putting off buying until they have families. Some in the industry are predicting future buyers will purchase vehicles based on saftey and tech, and some will order them without a test drive.

Just one data point, but my daughter is approaching cars and driving exactly the way I did. She's 16 and learning to drive in her mother's manual transmission VW GTI. As soon as she's old enough she'll have her license, which is freedom to her. She's not into cars but she dismissed the idea of trading my 911 for a more practical Audi as "boring."

I haven't test driven a car in 30 years.

My own opinion is that other than on highways and other controlled environments we won't have self-driving cars. The infrastructure to support them--standardized lanes, pedestrian and driver warnings like at train crossings, will be a greater part of self driving than artificial intelligence. Have you seen the videos of bozos hailing their Teslas in Walmart parking lots?

[Jamie]

It's amusing now, but I think the improvement will come fast. Every time I click on a captcha I feel like I'm helping refine their driving algorithms. Is that why am I having to click on the traffic lights?

[Benno von Humpback]

It's amusing now, but I think the improvement will come fast. Every time I click on a captcha I feel like I'm helping refine their driving algorithms. Is that why am I having to click on the traffic lights?

If they're as bad at that as I am, watch out!