Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

[Tigger]

75442899_10157471941870767_4137696159240028160_n.jpg

[BeauV]

Jamie - that his HYSTERICAL

[Tigger]

Here's another. This one is pure gold.

https://genesiustimes.com/elon-musk-unv ... c.facebook

[TheOffice]

146,000 deposits on that monstrosity! Someone likes it.

[Ken Heaton (Salazar)]

Meanwhile, in other Autonomous vehicle technology, now to aircraft, I present Garmin Autonomí: Autoland

"Autoland helps protect passengers by landing the airplane when the pilot is unable to fly. See how it’s activated, how it searches for a nearby airport and how it configures the airplane for landing — and then touches down and comes to a full stop autonomously."

I hadn't realised they have gotten this far already.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IyYxbiZ1FCQ

...and a follow up from Aviation Consumer magazine Editor-in-Chief Larry Anglisano who flew with Garmin's full Autonomi system in both aircraft and prepared this field report:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d-ruFmgTpqA

One interesting fact in that video, because the aircraft already had GPS Navigation, an Autopilot, Communicatons, Auto- Throttle, etc. already all tied together, adding this technology didn't significantly add to the $2.9 million dollar cost of this aircraft.

"With final FAA certification pending, Autloland is expected to be included in the production type certificates for the 2020 Piper M600 turboprop single and the Cirrus Vision Jet."

More info here: https://www.garmin.com/en-US/autonomi/

[Ajax]

200,000 deposits now. Some people have really drunk the Kool-Aid.

Maybe in a year or two, I won't hate how it looks so much. Even my spouse was impressed with the features and capabilities but she agrees with me about the appearance.

[BeauV]

I read an interesting piece on the CyberTruck (CT). It was a complex justification based on the construction tech and the metals used. They claim that the CT is built in this form because it has a relatively thick and strong stainless steel skin that is cold-formed into those shapes. It's claimed that the metal doesn't' lend itself to hot-forming of complex curves. Thus, no swoopy curves. It's also claimed that the CT has what they call an exoskeleton. This means that some significant percentage of the loads are carried by the skin itself and not by a frame. Of course this sort of construction is typical of 1950s race cars, but they leave that out. They do correctly point out that a stressed-skin design is what allowed aircraft to build things like un-stayed wings etc...

I guess I'm not buying it. I hadn't realized that the exterior would always be silver because it's bare stainless steel. We all know what 10-year-old stainless looks like, especially near the beach. I sure hope the corrosion pattern on the CT is better than some of the stainless on my boat!!

I think we're seeing a revival of brutalist style, which fits really well with Elon's retro Ayn Rand value system.

As to how many of the 200,000 will actually buy a car and how many will get something which actually looks like the thing we've seen....

- A good friend doubled his money on his Tesla Model 3 spot in line in about 18 months. His day job is Hedge Fund manager, so he knows a lot about selling at Peak Hype. I'm guessing he's one who bought a reservation. I let you know if he sells soon, indicating a crash is coming.

- I do think Elon will stick with something that looks like this. Two reasons, if the article about cold-forming the skin is right, then he can't just change the body style because it's a structural part of the cruck (car/truck). Also, like Donald, Elon hates to admit he's wrong about anything. But especially when he is trying to "lead the industry" with his latest idea: The Cruck.

Just my opinions. Still digging into the construction technique.

For something completely different: The new C8 Corvette just won Car Of The Year. If you haven't read about it or seen one, that win was extremely well deserved. For the first time in my life, I might actually go look at one seriously. I'll be waiting for the 700hp version due out next year after they've debugged all the little stuff that GM is so bad at sorting out before the initial production year. I'm stunned at how good the car is reported to be.

Good read from Motor Trend HERE

[TheOffice]

Beau,

Thanks for the info. The CT is missing side mirrors and the headlights are not legal. NHTSA is considering allowing cameras instead of mirrors, but it is not there yet. I also read it will be availble in flat black. I kept my $100 in my wallet.

Maybe sailors just like curves?

[Ajax]

Beau is right- It's brutalist.

As far as keeping up the appearance of the SS body, it's simple even near a salt water climate. You simply buy the "red" Scotchbrite pads and stroke in one direction, with the grain. My DeLorean was old and battered and I shined it up beautifully in a couple of hours.

Something that DeLorean Motor Company was investigating, was color applique's in a partnership with 3M. It makes even more sense today than it in 1981. You've all seen vehicles with advertising appliques applied over nearly the entire body of the vehicle. Simply imagine a translucent color applied to the truck. It could be anything, any color. It could incorporate graphics or stripes, practically anything you desire. The truck doesn't have to remain basic stainless in color. After a few years of road rash and shopping cart collisions, the applique will have little tears and probably need replaced, but it will be inexpensive.

Regarding the reasons for the angular design-

There is a market for an electric pickup truck. I don't recall anyone asking for an affordably priced armored personnel carrier with bullet-proof windows except maybe drug cartels and 3rd World dictators.
Musk could have kept the cost a lot lower and generated a lot more interest if he built the truck out of conventional steel that allowed more flexibility in the design.

And yeah, Musk is not about to admit that maybe he made a mistake.

[BeauV]

Aftermarket parts builders are already jumping on the CYBRTRUCK with this modification. Orders are surging!!




Not to be caught flat-footed, Elon jumps on the emerging market for the Model B CYBRTRUCK - (B is for Battalion Sized) "There is a clear pattern emerging in the marketplace. Our customers are taking Tesla where the action is." Said Musk at a trade show in the middle east.

[TheOffice]

Going to kill sales of Toyota Tacomas in the 3rd world!

[Ajax]

Ok, I admit it. I would buy the Jawa sandcrawler, if I could.

[BeauV]

Ok, I admit it. I would buy the Jawa sandcrawler, if I could.

I knew I could count on you!

[LarryHoward]

Going to kill sales of Toyota Tacomas in the 3rd world!

Nah. Technicals need ICE engines. Can’t queue up at a desert supercharger in Yemen or Somalia in the middle of the battle but you can always get petrol or diesel with a big gun.

[Steele]

If the body is so strong and integral to the structure, I wonder what happens with an accident? With all the engineering that has gone into crumple zones cars have become much safer. Sure they disintegrate in even moderate collisions, but as someone who works in medicine I would much rather see someone walk away from a destroyed car than suffer a significant injury. If this truck has an exoskeleton that strong the impact will be transfered to the occupants and bags and belts can only do so much.

[Ajax]

If the body is so strong and integral to the structure, I wonder what happens with an accident? With all the engineering that has gone into crumple zones cars have become much safer. Sure they disintegrate in even moderate collisions, but as someone who works in medicine I would much rather see someone walk away from a destroyed car than suffer a significant injury. If this truck has an exoskeleton that strong the impact will be transfered to the occupants and bags and belts can only do so much.

Given that other Teslas are ranked as very safe, I feel that Musk would have taken this into consideration. One of the things he enjoys bragging about, is the safety rankings of his cars. You make a good point though, and I'm curious as to how he maintains occupant safety with a structure like this.

[Ken Heaton (Salazar)]

If the body is so strong and integral to the structure, I wonder what happens with an accident? With all the engineering that has gone into crumple zones cars have become much safer. Sure they disintegrate in even moderate collisions, but as someone who works in medicine I would much rather see someone walk away from a destroyed car than suffer a significant injury. If this truck has an exoskeleton that strong the impact will be transfered to the occupants and bags and belts can only do so much.

Given that other Teslas are ranked as very safe, I feel that Musk would have taken this into consideration. One of the things he enjoys bragging about, is the safety rankings of his cars. You make a good point though, and I'm curious as to how he maintains occupant safety with a structure like this.

My guess is it is very strong until it isn't. I expect that this exoskeleton is like an egg, or a pop can. You can stand on an empty pop can if you apply the pressure slowly and gently. As soon as you just touch the side while it is bearing weight, or apply the pressure unevenly, it collapses.

I think once one of the larger panels of one if these is creased or dented, repair will be very difficult, if not impossible. But I'm just guessing...

[BeauV]

Ken, we're all guessing. For all we know what we saw was a Model X with a weird body made of plywood. (Well, maybe not that extreme.)

Ajax, I think you're right. Tesla has a great safety record, interestingly because the car's frame has to be so strong because it has to carry the weight of the batteries without flexing. The way the Model S & X work is an extremely strong zone surrounding the passenger compartment and battery stack serves as a mounting place for the crumple zones. Folks got worried about the front of the CYBRTRUCK because it doesn't look like there is room for a crumple zone, but there isn't anything that says that the crumple zone can't extend aft of the front wheels. Also, this is clearly not a production version, as others have pointed out. No rearview mirrors, lighting isn't street legal, etc...

[BeauV]

The more I think about the CYBERTRUCK the more I think that Elon is front-running the market for an electric pickup. Sure it's an ugly crazy car. But, it may have already stopped 200,000 people from buying anyone else's electric pickup truck, they've put down deposits. That's a significant number of buyers who are now "on board". The specs on the CYBERTRUCK for range and speed are way beyond what the competition can deliver in the next few years, locking in a window for Elon to get this (or some other electric pickup truck out the door.)

This is a classic industry leader move to freeze a market while they get their product finished.

[Ken Heaton (Salazar)]

Is the information in this video news or do you already know about the Musk's claims to be close to million mile battery technology?

From Business Insider: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lZtfAtHMhmE&t=15s

[BeauV]

Ken, I have no inside info on Tesla battery tech. Never have had. However, I did read the University annoucement referred to in the video and didn't catch that Tesla has patented it. I'm guessing that it works. The video talks about using cobalt, and as far as I know, it is both expensive and rare. But, as we know from finding oil, something only seems rare before you find another source or extraction process. Oil used to be rare, now we're swimming in the stuff.

Just a data point. There are a LOT of Teslas running around already with over 300,000 miles on the original battery pack and probably more than 100 which have reached 400,000 miles. I know of one that has reached 600,000 miles. He drove to the Fremont factory to show the guys at the factory, there was a party. While the video is certainly correct when it says that many manufacturers have overstated the lifetime of the batteries, the opposite has always been true of Tesla. Indeed, some stockholders are pissed off about Tesla not making it painfully obvious that their batteries are massively better and showing the proof they have in the records. But, everyone is a Monday Morning Quarterback.

I don't really think battery life needs to go out to 1,000,000 miles. (Which is the wrong way to measure batteries anyway, one should use cycles not miles.) By the time someone has done 1mm miles almost every other part of the car will be falling apart or replaced. If we just take the video's numbers (highly suspect) of $7,500 for a replacement battery stack. That number is irrelevant compared to all-new seats, hinges, door latches, A/C fans, heater elements, compressors, etc.. etc.... etc......

It's simply not economical to drive one car for a million miles, not to mention the simple fact that only a commercial owner would put up with the same care for 74 years!! Which is what the average drive would see: 74=1,000,000/13,500 (miles per year for average US driver).

[Ken Heaton (Salazar)]

And up here in the land of salt on the roads in winter, every car I've ever owned has rusted away well before the drive train gave out (not counting the Mini I rolled into a swamp and pancaked the roof in one morning, many years ago). So that what I was thinking while watching that video was, "How are they going to get the bodies to last longer?"

[Tigger]

The Cybertruck even made Mennonite Satire--you just can't buy that kind of publicity!

https://dailybonnet.com/tesla-releases- ... ybertruck/

[TheOffice]

for something sexier, and a mere $2.2 mm:

https://www.lotuscars.com/en-GB/model/evija

[TheOffice]

Musk drove the Truck to dinner last weekend. he's now said the final might be a little narrower and 6 inches shorter so it can fit in a standard garage. Hell of a way to introduce a new model!

[Ajax]

He also drove over a traffic sign. I'm unclear on how he's legally operating this vehicle on public roads given that the lighting is not DOT approved, the vehicle has no windshield wipers and no side mirrors and the camera (I thought) were not installed, nor DOT approved.

[TheOffice]

He has a Manufacturers plate so it is legal to drive a prototype.

[BeauV]

He has a Manufacturers plate so it is legal to drive a prototype.

I had a buddy with manufacturer plates. We stuck 'em on all sorts of race cars and drove around LA. It was great fun!

[Tigger]

Just out of curiosity, can anyone comment on how well Tesla vehicles perform in the snow?

FWIW, my basis of comparison would be my 2003 Honda Civic sedan, which performs admirably.

[BeauV]

Just out of curiosity, can anyone comment on how well Tesla vehicles perform in the snow?

FWIW, my basis of comparison would be my 2003 Honda Civic sedan, which performs admirably.

I can’t speak for the Model 3. The Model S doesn’t have enough ground clearance to be a “good snow car” in my book. In low mode I think there is only about 5.2” of clearance. In normal clearance it’s 6” and in High Mode 2 the ground clearance is 7.3” (All of these numbers are for the optional air suspension which is adjustable.) I believe the normal suspension on the S has 6” of clearance. While this is higher than something like a M5 BMW, it’s not high enough for a good snow car, in my opinion.

The Model X has a bit more ground clearance at 5.4” and the air suspension seems to lift it up to about 8”. But the big win with the X is a LOT less overhang to catch on things.

The Model 3 has overhangs about like the S, no air suspension, except that the Performance model is 1/2” lower (I think).

With respect to the drivability, the traction control is quite good. One can ease out of a low spot with gentle application of throttle. The traction control works extremely well at avoiding wheel spin. It is a little hard to rock the car, by shifting from drive to reverse and back again, as the shifting is a little slower than a classic American automatic transmission. But it’s much better than any stick. We’ve driven the Model X in a lot of snow many times. At extremely cold temps, like 15 deg. F, the batteries aren’t nearly as powerful as they are in their normal operating range. Once the batteries are up to about 50 deg. F, they work use fine. Oddly, the car uses the heater to warm the batteries, as the energy lost warming the batteries creates more available power than what’s lost.