Electric Car Prediction - Whatdayathing???

[Jamie]

There are some Chinese mini trucks. Would not want to be in an accident in one of them.

In Taiwan used to borrow those trucks on occasion. Cool little trucks with an 1.1l engines up to 3.5l and hydraulic lift, but if you crashed you were the first to arrive at the scene of the accident. Here's a 4x4 with no lift.

21945787192443_586.jpg

An interesting look at some of the design of the Tesla.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MQV3D8F6gvw

[BeauV]

There are some Chinese mini trucks. Would not want to be in an accident in one of them.

It will be interesting to see how well the e pickups sell once Ford and Chevy release theirs. I don't consider Tesla, Rivian or Hummer to be indicative of the broader market.

Joel

I think folks need to understand that almost no one enters the market at the middle or low-end, except with massive subsidies from their government and a strong link to some sort of national industrial policy. The initial Tesla and Rivian products are high-end over-priced products sold as luxury or novelty items to those who can afford an uncompetitive product. In my opinion, the measure of this is to compare the Tesla sedans to the MBZ, Porsche, and BMW high-end sedans and measure market share within that segment. In early-adopter markets, like CA, Tesla completely obliterated the large MBZ, BMW, and Porsche designs. Sales of those high-end ICE cars crashed.

On the back of that success, Tesla started going down market. It is now focused on knocking off the 3 and 5 series BMW category, a much tougher job. But so far sales are more limited by production ramp-up than by customer demand. The pattern will continue until Tesla either gets bought by someone (unlikely given their stock-market value is greater than most other US Car manufacturers combined), or until the company stumbles. Their ugly as a turd pickup truck was just such a stumble. I doubt it'll ever show up as a real product. Similarly, Tesla got the long-haul semi-truck tractor almost pathologically wrong. Thorough all this, they have failed to realize or accept that a high-end SUV and/or Pickup truck (that looks like a freaking pickup truck) would be a natural win for them; as would a delivery truck platform which they could build and sell to box-truck bed/body builders.

All of this is proving that Tesla is far from perfect, but they have survived and succeeded far better than any other new car manufacturer in decades, maybe even a century.

I believe that Tesla hasn't bothered trying to build an Econo-box sedan for the low-end because it can't be done. They certainly know more about this technically than any other manufacturer. The power train simply won't scale down to ultra-small cars, IMHO. That said, companies like Toyota have used their luxe-boat cars like the Lexus to subsidize their small car business for decades. Tesla might get big enough to afford doing this if it wishes, but it has to stop screwing around with butt-ugly fake pickup trucks and semi-tractors and focus. This is probably a key flaw in Elon. At this point, the serious question about Tesla is not technical, it's about the capabilities of their CEO to run a major corporation and stop acting like he has A.D.D.

[kdh]

With Tesla's stock trading where it is they can do anything they want. Not even profits matter with their ability to tap the markets for cash.

[TheOffice]

Beau,,

Toyota has to sell econoboxes to meet CAFE requirements. If they break even selling Corollas I'd be surprised!
If you believe Musk, the lack of batteries is holding back production of the semi and other new models, so I don't see a small Tesla until that problem is solved.

I also read that they make most of their money selling EV credits to European automakers, not from building cars. That is not a sustainable business model given the ramp-up by the legacy carmakers. The 3 and Y will continue to crush BMW and Mercedes until they convert from ICE power. The issue will be whether people who bought a Tesla because it was electric will buy another when they can choose from 5 or 10 worthy competitors.

I don't see the folly in building a semi. A $150,000 truck has to be more profitable than 4 $40,000 base model 3s. Plus taking one diesel semi off the road does a lot more for the environment than retiring 10 BMWs.

My 2 cents.

[BeauV]

Beau,,

...snip...

I don't see the folly in building a semi. A $150,000 truck has to be more profitable than 4 $40,000 base model 3s. Plus taking one diesel semi off the road does a lot more for the environment than retiring 10 BMWs.

The problem with the Semi Tractor being EV is that long-haul trucking is all about range and keeping the truck on the road. Swapping entire battery packs might work, but sitting for hours in a truckstop re-charging the batteries in the Semi simply won't work. It puts the asset out of service for a significant percentage of its life and that's "no bueno" from a financial point of view.

By contrast, a truck frame that supports short-haul delivery trucks would be just fine. Those spend a LOT of their life sitting still and while they are deployed for an 8 to 10 hour shift, they could easily reach that with current battery technology. It's a massive win and the pollution from delivery trucks is right were the pollution problems are.

[BeauV]

Beau,,

...snip...

I don't see the folly in building a semi. A $150,000 truck has to be more profitable than 4 $40,000 base model 3s. Plus taking one diesel semi off the road does a lot more for the environment than retiring 10 BMWs.

The problem with the Semi Tractor being EV is that long-haul trucking is all about range and keeping the truck on the road. Swapping entire battery packs might work, but sitting for hours in a truckstop re-charging the batteries in the Semi simply won't work. It puts the asset out of service for a significant percentage of its life and that's "No Bueno" from a financial point of view.

By contrast, a truck frame that supports short-haul delivery trucks would be just fine. Those spend a LOT of their life sitting still and while they are deployed for an 8 to 10-hour shift, they could easily reach that with current battery technology. It's a massive win and the pollution from delivery trucks is right where the pollution problems are. There is one particular use-case that is particularly advantageous for short-haul delivery trucks: Refrigerated Trucks. There are literally thousands of refrigerated box trucks with a small diesel running non-stop as the truck makes its rounds. The load is small and current battery technology could remove that dirty diesel from operating. It's my understanding that the refrigeration compressor motors runn non-stop for the entire time the truck is doing delieveries.

[BeauV]

Sorry for the double post, the second one is the complete one. weird.

[avramd]

With Tesla's stock trading where it is they can do anything they want. Not even profits matter with their ability to tap the markets for cash.

Actually, that's not quite how that works. They can't simply go issuing new shares any time they want money - that would tank their stock simply b/c of supply and demand. I don't specifically know how voting power is distributed with TSLA, but shareholders do have votes, and they don't vote in favor of things that reduce the value of their stock.

[avramd]

One thing that bothers me about Tesla's "plan" to prove to the world that electric cars are viable (which I liken to the Cylon's "Plan" in the BSG remake), is they part where their supercharger network is proprietary. It seems to me that that would ensure that electric cars are NOT viable, only Teslas are.

I stumbled into a product today that is a Tesla to J1772 adapter - it supposedly lets standard electric cars charge on a Tesla charger. I somewhat imagine that this only works at destination chargers like hotels, etc - I assume that Superchargers identify your specific car, and won't charge it if it's not a specific Tesla that is in their database. Beau, can you confirm?

On the other hand, I do have to admit that if non Tesla EV's became particularly popular, and then I found myself waiting an hour for Fords and Toyotas to charge at a Tesla supercharging station while I was on a road trip, I would probably be pretty peeved about that.

I think I'd be ok waiting for Jaguars though

[avramd]

Beau, quick question - you said you almost never manually park your car (am I quoting you right?). Is there a particular secret to getting it to recognize potential parking spaces? I have tried a dozen times, and I have still only ever seen the self-parking feature recognize a parking space that one time. I wonder if the S just has better hardware than the Y.

[BeauV]

Beau, quick question - you said you almost never manually park your car (am I quoting you right?). Is there a particular secret to getting it to recognize potential parking spaces? I have tried a dozen times, and I have still only ever seen the self-parking feature recognize a parking space that one time. I wonder if the S just has better hardware than the Y.

Our S is 5-years old, so it has very old hardware. Your Y has MUCH better cameras, and more of them, and much better computing power.

As to recognizing the parking spot, you do have to turn on your turn signal as you approach the parking spot (I've only ever tried starboard side parking, I'm not sure port side will work but I can't see why not). Then, when you come to a stop, both ends or sides of the parking spot must appear in the rear-view camera before you shift into reverse. Then, when you put the car into reverse the "P" should appear along with the "START" green button. (At least this is how our S works.)

If you are parallel parking, then it seems to like you between 18 and 24 inches from the car in front of the spot. If you are parking perpendicular it seems to want you about 3-4 feet away from the hoods of the cars off your starboard side. Hope that helps, I'm working from memory. It works almost all the time for our S and X, but I do think where you are when you go into reverse matters. The cameras have to see the spot, including the camera on the back of the car so you need to be a bit beyond the spot, not at the place where a human would normally start a parallel parking job. (EG: With the right rear wheel lined up with the back bumper of the car that will end up in front of you.

[BeauV]

With Tesla's stock trading where it is they can do anything they want. Not even profits matter with their ability to tap the markets for cash.

Actually, that's not quite how that works. They can't simply go issuing new shares any time they want money - that would tank their stock simply b/c of supply and demand. I don't specifically know how voting power is distributed with TSLA, but shareholders do have votes, and they don't vote in favor of things that reduce the value of their stock.

Well.....

Thing-1: Tesla has said that it either has or will buy up to $1.5 billion in bitcoin. I will put the accusation of manipulation of the price of bitcoin by Elon aside, as folks don't seem to be required to disclose their bitcoin holdings and Elon may very well have run the price up with the Tesla announcement just to see if he could do it - he IS that arrogant. But, since Tesla made that announcement, the price of bitcoin has gone up quite a bit. So, if Tesla actually held the $1.5 billion before the announcement, which I believe they did, they reportedly saw a 10% gain in the value of that $1.5 billion bitcoin position, or $150,000,000. Source: NY Times. So... there's that. But Tesla is also reported as holding about $19.4 billion in cash. Even if it was conservatively invested, in something like the SPX (S&P 500 index) over the last year it is up 16%, so that's another approximately $2.5 billion. (I don't think this is how they invest, but they could). So we've found about $2.6 billion that they could have extracted from the market this year without ever asking shareholders anything.

Thing-2: Tesla is almost certainly controlled by a small number of insiders and a block of large institutional investors. None of them would object to the company printing more shares and selling them while Tesla is at its current nose-bleed high valuation. I would never own the stock because I consider its price absurd. But I've been mistaken about Elon and Tesla for years. In any event, I really doubt that the controlling shareholders and most importantly the Board of Directors would do anything but applaud if Tesla sold a boatload of stock and slowed down the share price growth by putting another $20 billion in the bank. The buyers are irrational. When that happens, it's time to sell shares until they won't buy anymore.

Just my opinions on what's going on.

[kimbottles]

With Tesla's stock trading where it is they can do anything they want. Not even profits matter with their ability to tap the markets for cash.

Actually, that's not quite how that works. They can't simply go issuing new shares any time they want money - that would tank their stock simply b/c of supply and demand. I don't specifically know how voting power is distributed with TSLA, but shareholders do have votes, and they don't vote in favor of things that reduce the value of their stock.

Well.....

Thing-1: Tesla has said that it either has or will buy up to $1.5 billion in bitcoin. I will put the accusation of manipulation of the price of bitcoin by Elon aside, as folks don't seem to be required to disclose their bitcoin holdings and Elon may very well have run the price up with the Tesla announcement just to see if he could do it - he IS that arrogant. But, since Tesla made that announcement, the price of bitcoin has gone up quite a bit. So, if Tesla actually held the $1.5 billion before the announcement, which I believe they did, they reportedly saw a 10% gain in the value of that $1.5 billion bitcoin position, or $150,000,000. Source: NY Times. So... there's that. But Tesla is also reported as holding about $19.4 billion in cash. Even if it was conservatively invested, in something like the SPX (S&P 500 index) over the last year it is up 16%, so that's another approximately $2.5 billion. (I don't think this is how they invest, but they could). So we've found about $2.6 billion that they could have extracted from the market this year without ever asking shareholders anything.

Thing-2: Tesla is almost certainly controlled by a small number of insiders and a block of large institutional investors. None of them would object to the company printing more shares and selling them while Tesla is at its current nose-bleed high valuation. I would never own the stock because I consider its price absurd. But I've been mistaken about Elon and Tesla for years. In any event, I really doubt that the controlling shareholders and most importantly the Board of Directors would do anything but applaud if Tesla sold a boatload of stock and slowed down the share price growth by putting another $20 billion in the bank. The buyers are irrational. When that happens, it's time to sell shares until they won't buy anymore.

Just my opinions on what's going on.

Ah the stock market.......fear and greed......

Years ago I read an article in Money Magazine that was authored by Keith’s business partner’s father. I then shifted 100% of my equity investments to broad indexes. Since then I have just added to those indexes. I am quite happy with that article.

(I suppose I should find a copy and frame it.)

[TheOffice]

Here's a conversion project for sale:

https://www.facebook.com/marketplace/it ... 0410647425

This would be perfect for hauling sails.

[Jamie]

Here's a conversion project for sale:

https://www.facebook.com/marketplace/it ... 0410647425

This would be perfect for hauling sails.

Those little trucks are huge fun. It'd be scary to think what the torque of an electric motor would do.

The good news is that if you put one on it's side, it's pretty easy to get upright again.

[kdh]

With Tesla's stock trading where it is they can do anything they want. Not even profits matter with their ability to tap the markets for cash.

Actually, that's not quite how that works. They can't simply go issuing new shares any time they want money - that would tank their stock simply b/c of supply and demand. I don't specifically know how voting power is distributed with TSLA, but shareholders do have votes, and they don't vote in favor of things that reduce the value of their stock.

Well.....

Thing-1: Tesla has said that it either has or will buy up to $1.5 billion in bitcoin. I will put the accusation of manipulation of the price of bitcoin by Elon aside, as folks don't seem to be required to disclose their bitcoin holdings and Elon may very well have run the price up with the Tesla announcement just to see if he could do it - he IS that arrogant. But, since Tesla made that announcement, the price of bitcoin has gone up quite a bit. So, if Tesla actually held the $1.5 billion before the announcement, which I believe they did, they reportedly saw a 10% gain in the value of that $1.5 billion bitcoin position, or $150,000,000. Source: NY Times. So... there's that. But Tesla is also reported as holding about $19.4 billion in cash. Even if it was conservatively invested, in something like the SPX (S&P 500 index) over the last year it is up 16%, so that's another approximately $2.5 billion. (I don't think this is how they invest, but they could). So we've found about $2.6 billion that they could have extracted from the market this year without ever asking shareholders anything.

Thing-2: Tesla is almost certainly controlled by a small number of insiders and a block of large institutional investors. None of them would object to the company printing more shares and selling them while Tesla is at its current nose-bleed high valuation. I would never own the stock because I consider its price absurd. But I've been mistaken about Elon and Tesla for years. In any event, I really doubt that the controlling shareholders and most importantly the Board of Directors would do anything but applaud if Tesla sold a boatload of stock and slowed down the share price growth by putting another $20 billion in the bank. The buyers are irrational. When that happens, it's time to sell shares until they won't buy anymore.

Just my opinions on what's going on.

Ah the stock market.......fear and greed......

Years ago I read an article in Money Magazine that was authored by Keith’s business partner’s father. I then shifted 100% of my equity investments to broad indexes. Since then I have just added to those indexes. I am quite happy with that article.

(I suppose I should find a copy and frame it.)

Beau, I'm totally with you. No one who's been around a bit can justify Tesla's stock price, but, especially now, there are a lot of market participants who haven't been around a bit. I know of a well regarded professional stock picker who who lost $16m in his personal account in Tesla. As Bob Stansky used to say at Fidelity, it's a stock that "goes up and up until it doesn't." There have been plenty of these "go-go" stocks over the years.

Kim, John's dad wrote a lot of books, and he always sent me a copy with a nice note in it. He literally devoted his life to exposing that paying high fees in the mutual fund industry is not worthwhile, beginning with his college thesis at Princeton. Cool story, I think, and Vanguard is a great legacy.

[avramd]

Those little trucks are huge fun. It'd be scary to think what the torque of an electric motor would do.

The good news is that if you put one on it's side, it's pretty easy to get upright again.

But there's no daggerboard to stand on...

[avramd]

As to recognizing the parking spot, you do have to turn on your turn signal as you approach the parking spot (I've only ever tried starboard side parking, I'm not sure port side will work but I can't see why not). Then, when you come to a stop, both ends or sides of the parking spot must appear in the rear-view camera before you shift into reverse. Then, when you put the car into reverse the "P" should appear along with the "START" green button. (At least this is how our S works.)

If you are parallel parking, then it seems to like you between 18 and 24 inches from the car in front of the spot. If you are parking perpendicular it seems to want you about 3-4 feet away from the hoods of the cars off your starboard side. Hope that helps]

OMG Beau, that totally worked! Thank you so much!

I just went out and experimented with all of that, and I accomplished six successful autoparks, three parallel and three perpendicular. Here are a few notes:

• The Model Y manual does NOT say a word about needing to have the turn signal on
• For me, the (P) shoes up while I'm still crawling forward
• The tips about buffer distance were spot-on
• There do need to be actual cars on both sides/ends of the space, lines aren't sufficient, and the space can't be too big.
• I was not able to get it to do a "one-move" perpendicular pull-in:
  
  • each time it did not cut the wheel enough
  • then it back until my corner was about to hit the middle of the outside car,
  • then turned the wheel the other way, pulled forward to straighten out, then backed in straight. Three moves.
• It's kinda slow - each there was somebody behind me, I felt bad, and aborted.

[BeauV]

Glad I could help. I'm not surprised that the Y is a bit different from the S and X. It has a MUCH newer camera and computer set up.

As for people behind you..... You're clearly not from NY or SF - if you were you wouldn't mind a bit if there were 10 cars stacked up behind you as you tried 24 times to get into a spot that was too small for your car. Drive through Chinatown in either city and you'll see what I mean.

[avramd]

Glad I could help. I'm not surprised that the Y is a bit different from the S and X. It has a MUCH newer camera and computer set up.

As for people behind you..... You're clearly not from NY or SF - if you were you wouldn't mind a bit if there were 10 cars stacked up behind you as you tried 24 times to get into a spot that was too small for your car. Drive through Chinatown in either city and you'll see what I mean.

Haha - I don't mind making people wait if there is a good reason why they are waiting. I just don't consider waiting for my car to do a worse and slower job of parking for me than I can do myself to be a good reason to make somebody wait! I wonder if your cars are willing to park in a tighter space than mine is.

Oh - I have another question for you. My car's manual claims that I can adjust the "follow distance" for the traffic-aware cruise control, either in settings or by tilting the left steering wheel control left or right, while cruise is engaged. The later doesn't work, and the location the manual describes in the settings doesn't exist. I get the sense this is a feature they have removed. Any ideas/knowledge?

[BeauV]

...snip....

Oh - I have another question for you. My car's manual claims that I can adjust the "follow distance" for the traffic-aware cruise control, either in settings or by tilting the left steering wheel control left or right, while cruise is engaged. The later doesn't work, and the location the manual describes in the settings doesn't exist. I get the sense this is a feature they have removed. Any ideas/knowledge?

On both our X and S you change the follow distance by rotating the end of the smaller Autopilot stick. I don't remember which direction does what, but you might see if rotating that stalk end does the job.

[avramd]

On both our X and S you change the follow distance by rotating the end of the smaller Autopilot stick. I don't remember which direction does what, but you might see if rotating that stalk end does the job.

I don't think the Y has such a concept. There are two steering wheel stalks, and two joystick-like balls embedded in the steering wheel that are soft controls; their function is context dependent, they have no feature-specific dedication. The steering wheel stalks are a turn-signal/high-beam/wiper control, and a gear selector/cruise/autopilot control but it does not twist.

If you think of it next time you use your cruise/auto-pilot, would you mind checking to see if the adjustable following distance still functions for you? No worries if you don't think of it/get around to it.

[TheOffice]

Just looked at Tesla stock price. Down from a crazy high of 900 to 648.
P/E is almost down to 1,000.

I've learned not to ask my broker how low a stock can go. The answer is always 'zero'. I'm still just kicking the tires on the stock, and kicking myself for not buying it 5 years ago.

[kdh]

Just looked at Tesla stock price. Down from a crazy high of 900 to 648.
P/E is almost down to 1,000.

I've learned not to ask my broker how low a stock can go. The answer is always 'zero'. I'm still just kicking the tires on the stock, and kicking myself for not buying it 5 years ago.

woulda, shoulda, coulda.

[BeauV]

Just looked at Tesla stock price. Down from a crazy high of 900 to 648.
P/E is almost down to 1,000.

I've learned not to ask my broker how low a stock can go. The answer is always 'zero'. I'm still just kicking the tires on the stock, and kicking myself for not buying it 5 years ago.

When Tesla was at 900 I quite literally had a chat with a sailing friend about shorting it. Of course, I didn't short it. To quote Keith: Coulda, Shoulda, Woulda if I'd been a "Real Player".

[kdh]

Just looked at Tesla stock price. Down from a crazy high of 900 to 648.
P/E is almost down to 1,000.

I've learned not to ask my broker how low a stock can go. The answer is always 'zero'. I'm still just kicking the tires on the stock, and kicking myself for not buying it 5 years ago.

When Tesla was at 900 I quite literally had a chat with a sailing friend about shorting it. Of course, I didn't short it. To quote Keith: Coulda, Shoulda, Woulda if I'd been a "Real Player".

The problem with shorting a bubble is there can be a lot of pain while waiting to be right. Then in retrospect it seems you knew all along.

But by chance someone always gets the timing right. Witness "The Big Short." Practically everyone in the industry knew the banks' mortgage positions were going to blow up, and who had them (mostly Bear). The question was only when.

[BeauV]

Just looked at Tesla stock price. Down from a crazy high of 900 to 648.
P/E is almost down to 1,000.

I've learned not to ask my broker how low a stock can go. The answer is always 'zero'. I'm still just kicking the tires on the stock, and kicking myself for not buying it 5 years ago.

When Tesla was at 900 I quite literally had a chat with a sailing friend about shorting it. Of course, I didn't short it. To quote Keith: Coulda, Shoulda, Woulda if I'd been a "Real Player".

The problem with shorting a bubble is there can be a lot of pain while waiting to be right. Then in retrospect it seems you knew all along.

But by chance someone always gets the timing right. Witness "The Big Short." Practically everyone in the industry knew the banks' mortgage positions were going to blow up, and who had them (mostly Bear). The question was only when.

I could NOT agree more! This is also true of innovation in technology. For 50 years I have been about 95% right a what is going to happen and 95% wrong about when it is going to happen. That has resulted in working on 4 different AI deals, only the last one made money, and 5 different Tablet Computer deals, none of which made money. Watching the iPad take off three years after we'd shuttered the SGI tablet computer project was painful to watch.

[Jamie]

I distinctly recall sitting in my Wharton finance class back in 2000 having the Professor ask us how it was possible for securitized "risk free" assets to have better than risk free returns and whether it was possible for the mechanisms of tranching and buying insurance against losses could protect against systematic risk.

Of course many graduated and then participated in making the problem worse. Granted just they were junior woodchucks who most likely would have had to find a new industry if they objected vs a getting a good bonus. I recall some senior fund managers losing their job for staying away.

[kdh]

I distinctly recall sitting in my Wharton finance class back in 2000 having the Professor ask us how it was possible for securitized "risk free" assets to have better than risk free returns and whether it was possible for the mechanisms of tranching and buying insurance against losses could protect against systematic risk.

Of course many graduated and then participated in making the problem worse. Granted just they were junior woodchucks who most likely would have had to find a new industry if they objected vs a getting a good bonus. I recall some senior fund managers losing their job for staying away.

For all the press about financial wizardry being the cause of instability and ruin, I've always felt the most basic of instruments, the bond, otherwise known as a loan, is the basic source of tail risk. When everyone wants their money back or can't repay loans the issue is unavoidably systemic, regardless of the details.

With equity, or stocks, on the other hand, the risks are plainly taken and prices are clear, often with plenty of liquidity.

[Jamie]

I distinctly recall sitting in my Wharton finance class back in 2000 having the Professor ask us how it was possible for securitized "risk free" assets to have better than risk free returns and whether it was possible for the mechanisms of tranching and buying insurance against losses could protect against systematic risk.

Of course many graduated and then participated in making the problem worse. Granted just they were junior woodchucks who most likely would have had to find a new industry if they objected vs a getting a good bonus. I recall some senior fund managers losing their job for staying away.

For all the press about financial wizardry being the cause of instability and ruin, I've always felt the most basic of instruments, the bond, otherwise known as a loan, is the basic source of tail risk. When everyone wants their money back or can't repay loans the issue is unavoidably systemic, regardless of the details.

With equity, or stocks, on the other hand, the risks are plainly taken and prices are clear, often with plenty of liquidity.

In my simplistic view the issue comes when people think there is some kind of wizardry that can shield them from tail risk or even separate the risk from reward. But I'm not smart enough to be a banker.